philly1121 said:

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Quite simply because it has never happened before. And by every metric, FSU should have made it. It doesn't matter if they're going to 12 next year. What mattered was this year. And they got left out. That's why they feel snubbed. Not just with the CFP but the ACC as well.

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Yes, but I'm not sure if you've heard: there will be more playoff teams next year. An undefeated team that wins the ACC will never get left out of a 12-team bracket.

FSU will lose a LOT of money long term if they attempt to actually leave the ACC. The buyout will more than offset the difference in earnings. Their best bet by FAR is to try to squeeze the ACC for non-equal revenue sharing as much as they possibly can, then win the ACC every year making the playoffs constantly. Though I guess this year may have shown that making your competition too weak may not be the best course of action.

The key for FSU is going to be to NOT over-react to this year. This year was a perfect storm for them and it really sucks they were left out. If this had happened next year there is no way this would have happened, even with a 4 team playoff, with the Pac12 going away and Texas/Oklahoma going to the SEC they would have gotten in. With a 12 team playoff they would have gotten in. No one is saying it, but they probably would have been one of the top 4 teams in a 12 team playoff and gotten the first round bye too. The committee was unwilling to leave the SEC out all together, but if Alabama would have made it as a 5 seed they probably would have been ranked 5th.

FSU is angry right now. I don't blame them. They SHOULD be angry. But leaving the ACC at this juncture would make a bad situation worse. In the interum, focus on having backup QB's that are capable of stepping in and managing your playoff caliber offense. People keep saying this was because of an injury. It wasn't, it was because they didn't have enough depth at QB to overcome injuries. Injuries happen in college football and it freaking sucks but its part of the game and if you want to be a playoff team you have to plan for it, or risk being left out.

The absolute BEST mentality that FSU can have right now is to prove everyone wrong and beat the snot out of Georgia. I personally would LOVE to see this happen. Count me as part of team chaos.

MrGPAC said:

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FSU will lose a LOT of money long term if they attempt to actually leave the ACC. The buyout will more than offset the difference in earnings. Their best bet by FAR is to try to squeeze the ACC for non-equal revenue sharing as much as they possibly can, then win the ACC every year making the playoffs constantly. Though I guess this year may have shown that making your competition too weak may not be the best course of action.

The key for FSU is going to be to NOT over-react to this year. This year was a perfect storm for them and it really sucks they were left out. If this had happened next year there is no way this would have happened, even with a 4 team playoff, with the Pac12 going away and Texas/Oklahoma going to the SEC they would have gotten in. With a 12 team playoff they would have gotten in. No one is saying it, but they probably would have been one of the top 4 teams in a 12 team playoff and gotten the first round bye too. The committee was unwilling to leave the SEC out all together, but if Alabama would have made it as a 5 seed they probably would have been ranked 5th.

FSU is angry right now. I don't blame them. They SHOULD be angry. But leaving the ACC at this juncture would make a bad situation worse. In the interum, focus on having backup QB's that are capable of stepping in and managing your playoff caliber offense. People keep saying this was because of an injury. It wasn't, it was because they didn't have enough depth at QB to overcome injuries. Injuries happen in college football and it freaking sucks but its part of the game and if you want to be a playoff team you have to plan for it, or risk being left out.

The absolute BEST mentality that FSU can have right now is to prove everyone wrong and beat the snot out of Georgia. I personally would LOVE to see this happen. Count me as part of team chaos.

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I agree with most of what you said. But injury or not - they would have found a way to get Alabama in the playoffs if they beat Georgia. Imagine if FSU did not have an injury. Who would be in the playoffs? Alabama and Georgia would have been out? The pecking order was Texas, Alabama and then Georgia. So they would not really be able to leave Texas out. If there was Michigan, UW and FSU as undefeated conference champs...UW or FSU would have been left out. In other words - there was no way NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED that the SEC would have been left out.

I hope to God Alabama loses to Michigan, and FSU beats Georgia with their back up QB. AP can still vote for them to be National Champs.

exactly. and also this

Top 20 Commitments from California in the 247 Composite:
Oregon 7
Bama 3
USC 2

— QB11 (@Qb11Sd) December 20, 2023

what an indictement on SC, but also us. we have given up our home turf to go and recruit texas. gone are tedford days where we can at least somewhat defend our backyard. absolute travesty.

eastbayyoungbear said:

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Jeff82 said:

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Frankly, if the future is two 16-team mega-conferences of potentially illiterate semi-professional players wearing school-colored laundry, and everyone else going back to some system where you play a sport to get your higher education paid for, I wish they would just get on with it. I get that for optics, we can't voluntarily demote, in the same manner that someone who has a piece of property the government wants often forces them to use eminent domain, for the tax benefits, rather than just selling it to them. But the arms race if you're a fan is somewhat exhausting, even on what appears to be a good day like today for signings.

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The problem is that we would need to burn down our athletic department in the process. I don't know if there's a soft landing here unless we slowly cut sports and downsize the athletic department over time.

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I agree here and I think Cal's ACC affiliation can buy the time to downsize the IAD in a rational fashion, if they take advantage of it. Cal is "donating" so much of their payout back to the ACC that I doubt there is enough revenue to continue funding the number of teams that currently exist while still having a competitive football team. The problem is that Knowlton is not the guy to lead this change.
One way around that is the following:

• Cal hires a chancellor who believes that revenue sports can be a relevant (not dominant, the culture won't support that) part of Cal, but the IAD has to exist without financial bail-outs. He/She
• The chancellor tells Knowlton that, effective immediately: HE WORKS IN BERKELEY FULL-TIME, there will be no more financial bailouts from central funds, and that he has six months to assemble a 3-year road map that right-sizes IAD (administration and teams) to reflect anticipated revenue. Ideally, Knowlton quits when confronted with this ultimatum.
• OR the new chancellor convinces donors that Knowlton is not the man to lead this major change and they cough up the $$ for a negotiated buy-out. A new AD is hired with the same mandate as above.

If something like this can happen, in 4-5 years Cal should be in shape to be a strong competitor as a member of the anticipated not-so-super FBS tier. There will be lots of company: Stanford, the 'Zonas, 3/4 of the (former) B1G, virtually all the Big12, most of the ACC, Oregon St and Wash St and I'll bet UCLA. Games will still be on TV because they will still attract lots more viewers than bass fishing, axe-throwing, or professional corn- hole. Those alumni who can't tolerate this outcome will, I suppose, trade in their Cal gear for an Alabama or Michigan jersey. The rest of us will still enjoy glorious October days in CMS, with 35-55 thousand others, watching the sturdy Golden Bears.
OR
Cal, in it's typical dithering fashion, will kick the can down the road. They'll keep slapping little band-aids on a gaping wound as the patient gets progressively weaker. When the NCAA super-tier forms, the Cal administration uses that as an excuse to terminate football entirely. CMS will be used for field hockey and rugby in front of hundreds of friends and family. The rest of us will enjoy glorious October days, but not in CMS.

Oski87 said:

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MrGPAC said:

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FSU will lose a LOT of money long term if they attempt to actually leave the ACC. The buyout will more than offset the difference in earnings. Their best bet by FAR is to try to squeeze the ACC for non-equal revenue sharing as much as they possibly can, then win the ACC every year making the playoffs constantly. Though I guess this year may have shown that making your competition too weak may not be the best course of action.

The key for FSU is going to be to NOT over-react to this year. This year was a perfect storm for them and it really sucks they were left out. If this had happened next year there is no way this would have happened, even with a 4 team playoff, with the Pac12 going away and Texas/Oklahoma going to the SEC they would have gotten in. With a 12 team playoff they would have gotten in. No one is saying it, but they probably would have been one of the top 4 teams in a 12 team playoff and gotten the first round bye too. The committee was unwilling to leave the SEC out all together, but if Alabama would have made it as a 5 seed they probably would have been ranked 5th.

FSU is angry right now. I don't blame them. They SHOULD be angry. But leaving the ACC at this juncture would make a bad situation worse. In the interum, focus on having backup QB's that are capable of stepping in and managing your playoff caliber offense. People keep saying this was because of an injury. It wasn't, it was because they didn't have enough depth at QB to overcome injuries. Injuries happen in college football and it freaking sucks but its part of the game and if you want to be a playoff team you have to plan for it, or risk being left out.

The absolute BEST mentality that FSU can have right now is to prove everyone wrong and beat the snot out of Georgia. I personally would LOVE to see this happen. Count me as part of team chaos.

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I agree with most of what you said. But injury or not - they would have found a way to get Alabama in the playoffs if they beat Georgia. Imagine if FSU did not have an injury. Who would be in the playoffs? Alabama and Georgia would have been out? The pecking order was Texas, Alabama and then Georgia. So they would not really be able to leave Texas out. If there was Michigan, UW and FSU as undefeated conference champs...UW or FSU would have been left out. In other words - there was no way NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED that the SEC would have been left out.

I hope to God Alabama loses to Michigan, and FSU beats Georgia with their back up QB. AP can still vote for them to be National Champs.

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I imagine Texas would have been left out rather than Alabama. We would then be having this conversation about Texas and "why bother having key ooc games if they don't matter in the end?"

This year there were 5 deserving schools for 4 spots. Someone was going to get screwed one way or the other. Florida State's unimpressive showing by their backup QB (granted it was their third string) when all eyes were on them looking for an excuse to leave someone out made it a lot easier on the council to pick them.

The whole conversation is moot next year...

sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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Quite simply because it has never happened before. And by every metric, FSU should have made it. It doesn't matter if they're going to 12 next year. What mattered was this year. And they got left out. That's why they feel snubbed. Not just with the CFP but the ACC as well.

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Yes, but I'm not sure if you've heard: there will be more playoff teams next year. An undefeated team that wins the ACC will never get left out of a 12-team bracket.

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Yes, I do recall seeing it on my handheld internet device. But we're talking about this year, not next year.

philly1121 said:

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sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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Quite simply because it has never happened before. And by every metric, FSU should have made it. It doesn't matter if they're going to 12 next year. What mattered was this year. And they got left out. That's why they feel snubbed. Not just with the CFP but the ACC as well.

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Yes, but I'm not sure if you've heard: there will be more playoff teams next year. An undefeated team that wins the ACC will never get left out of a 12-team bracket.

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Yes, I do recall seeing it on my handheld internet device. But we're talking about this year, not next year.

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But decisions now need to be made about the future state. FSU will not be at a disadvantage to make the playoffs with a 12-team bracket.

MrGPAC said:

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The absolute BEST mentality that FSU can have right now is to prove everyone wrong and beat the snot out of Georgia. I personally would LOVE to see this happen. Count me as part of team chaos.

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No chance of that happening since the majority of FSU's starters will be sitting out. Meanwhile, Georgia's second and third string is still full of 4 and 5 star players

Quote:

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FSU is angry right now. I don't blame them. They SHOULD be angry. But leaving the ACC at this juncture would make a bad situation worse. In the interum, focus on having backup QB's that are capable of stepping in and managing your playoff caliber offense. People keep saying this was because of an injury. It wasn't, it was because they didn't have enough depth at QB to overcome injuries. Injuries happen in college football and it freaking sucks but its part of the game and if you want to be a playoff team you have to plan for it, or risk being left out.

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So, this statement. Interesting. You're writing that it wasn't the injury. It was the fact that they didn't have a backup qb to overcome the injury. That's some very curious logic right there. So then it was the injury. Because if the injury didn't happen, then we wouldn't be talking about a backup, right?

And your use of the word "overcome". Also interesting. What exactly did FSU not overcome? They beat Florida in Gainsville. And they beat Louisville in the ACC Championship game. What didn't they overcome?

Your last sentence tho. Injuries are part of the game and if you don't plan for them - you get left out. Hmm...so you're basically just confirming that the injury kept them out.

Here's the deal: if Nando Mendoza was the starter all year long but got injured against Wazoo - but we won. And then we went to Stanford and beat them with SJ5 and then beat Utah the following week in the P12 championship game. Undefeated season. NY6 bowl to be sure. But - we get left out of CFP because, well, SJ5 really wasn't all that great because we barely beat Stanford and we barely beat Utah. Cal should of planned better.

You would be absolutely howling in anger at how unfair it was. The CFP cabal. The NCAA mafia. The bias against Cal. I mean, can we just call it what it is and move on.

And yes, the question is moot next year but that's not what we're talking about as it relates to FSU and whether the ACC survives long term.

Sure they would, if their team isn't as good as this years. That's why they're so upset. They're losing millions this year, with no guarantee they will equal this seasons success next year.

This is basically an excercise in futility and faux networks and espn will be viewed historically as the media equivalent of Agilent Technologies.
I say this for no other reason than they are driving consolidation and a disbursed footprint.
Looking at COP28 and reading the recent futures and scenarios strategies on my desk which are produced by big oil it is pretty clear to me that we are headed towards an energy shift which whether or not it ends up being hydrogen, or re gen, or whatever will not see fossil fuels as the pes in 2030 in literally every scenario excercise.
And in none of these scenarios is economic regionalism not forecast to be rampant. And in that case long distance commerce and non local products become a luxury.
Long story short: doubling and tripling the average travel, and moving away from a regionally dispersed model is a huge huge huge mistake and takes what was a future proof advantage and essentially throws it into the dumpster which is then doused in napalm and lit on fire.
Every single 2030 strategy I work on comes to the ultimate conclusion that we will shift to economic regionalism within the next 10 years due to a shift in the primary energy source to either hydrogen or other renewables and under each scenario long distance commerce becomes a luxury far beyond what it is now.
College athletics are no exception.
Mark my words…
2030 the pac 12 is back together and aligned with the MWC.
This **** is the complete opposite of sustainable and the only viable future for college athletics is one where regional competition is the norm and bi coastal competition is the exception.
Don't believe me?
Look at NBA scheduling this year…
Look at NFL scheduling this year…
It's already happening.

philly1121 said:

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Sure they would, if their team isn't as good as this years. That's why they're so upset. They're losing millions this year, with no guarantee they will equal this seasons success next year.

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Moving conferences after getting screwed doesn't get them that money back. If anything, it loses them money because of the massive exit fee they'd have to pay.

I think that's the question. And while we are having this discussion, the FSU Board of Trustees scheduled an emergency meeting tomorrow to discuss a possible ACC exit. And it seems indications are that the B12 may be the destination.

We can wax on and on about how the GoR is iron clad and FSU is gonna pay through the nose and they'll lose money in the long run. None of that is stopping what appears to be FSU or more likely to leave in 2-3 years.

sycasey said:

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philly1121 said:

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Sure they would, if their team isn't as good as this years. That's why they're so upset. They're losing millions this year, with no guarantee they will equal this seasons success next year.

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Moving conferences after getting screwed doesn't get them that money back. If anything, it loses them money because of the massive exit fee they'd have to pay.

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Funny thing is even if they had been in B1G or SEC this year, they still wouldn't have been in. Even assuming they would have made it to the championship games, I'm not so sure they would have won their conference championship game in the B1G or SEC. Their best chances was to win it in the ACC, which they did, but unfortunately (and unfairly) didn't go their way after. Going forward the ACC is still the way for the playoffs for them.

philly1121 said:

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I think that's the question. And while we are having this discussion, the FSU Board of Trustees scheduled an emergency meeting tomorrow to discuss a possible ACC exit. And it seems indications are that the B12 may be the destination.

We can wax on and on about how the GoR is iron clad and FSU is gonna pay through the nose and they'll lose money in the long run. None of that is stopping what appears to be FSU or more likely to leave in 2-3 years.

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The B12?!?

ferCALgm2 said:

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philly1121 said:

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I think that's the question. And while we are having this discussion, the FSU Board of Trustees scheduled an emergency meeting tomorrow to discuss a possible ACC exit. And it seems indications are that the B12 may be the destination.

We can wax on and on about how the GoR is iron clad and FSU is gonna pay through the nose and they'll lose money in the long run. None of that is stopping what appears to be FSU or more likely to leave in 2-3 years.

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The B12?!?

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Yeah, that doesn't make sense either.

philly1121 said:

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I think that's the question. And while we are having this discussion, the FSU Board of Trustees scheduled an emergency meeting tomorrow to discuss a possible ACC exit. And it seems indications are that the B12 may be the destination.

We can wax on and on about how the GoR is iron clad and FSU is gonna pay through the nose and they'll lose money in the long run. None of that is stopping what appears to be FSU or more likely to leave in 2-3 years.

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Don't buy the Big 12 nonsense tweeted by an Oklahoma State homer who writes for a gambling site.

FSU isn't going to pay hundreds of millions to break out of the ACC to join the Big 12. If they launch a lawsuit and end up writing a ginormous check, they're going to the SEC or Big Ten.

philly1121 said:

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Quote:

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FSU is angry right now. I don't blame them. They SHOULD be angry. But leaving the ACC at this juncture would make a bad situation worse. In the interum, focus on having backup QB's that are capable of stepping in and managing your playoff caliber offense. People keep saying this was because of an injury. It wasn't, it was because they didn't have enough depth at QB to overcome injuries. Injuries happen in college football and it freaking sucks but its part of the game and if you want to be a playoff team you have to plan for it, or risk being left out.

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So, this statement. Interesting. You're writing that it wasn't the injury. It was the fact that they didn't have a backup qb to overcome the injury. That's some very curious logic right there. So then it was the injury. Because if the injury didn't happen, then we wouldn't be talking about a backup, right?

And your use of the word "overcome". Also interesting. What exactly did FSU not overcome? They beat Florida in Gainsville. And they beat Louisville in the ACC Championship game. What didn't they overcome?

Your last sentence tho. Injuries are part of the game and if you don't plan for them - you get left out. Hmm...so you're basically just confirming that the injury kept them out.

Here's the deal: if Nando Mendoza was the starter all year long but got injured against Wazoo - but we won. And then we went to Stanford and beat them with SJ5 and then beat Utah the following week in the P12 championship game. Undefeated season. NY6 bowl to be sure. But - we get left out of CFP because, well, SJ5 really wasn't all that great because we barely beat Stanford and we barely beat Utah. Cal should of planned better.

You would be absolutely howling in anger at how unfair it was. The CFP cabal. The NCAA mafia. The bias against Cal. I mean, can we just call it what it is and move on.

And yes, the question is moot next year but that's not what we're talking about as it relates to FSU and whether the ACC survives long term.

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There are some logical errors in what you are saying here. I'm saying it was Injury AND bad performance by the backup in the champinoship game that caused this. You are saying only one of the two matters which is not my argument at all. Just having a good enough backup without the injury wouldn't have been enough to keep them out, and not having the injury with an awful backup would not be enough to keep them out. Having BOTH be true was what caused them to get left out.

IF the backup qb came into the Louisville game and threw for 300 yards and a couple touchdowns they would not have been left out. Instead he threw for ~50 yards and zero touchdowns and the offense looked really bad when everyone was looking for an excuse to leave one of 5 deserving candidates out of a 4 team playoff.

Of course this was unfair. I would be livid if I was FSU rightfully so. I'm not arguing against that. If I were Michigan and got left out I would be livid too. Or Washington. Or Texas. Or Alabama. No matter what someone was getting screwed this year. There were 5 teams that deserved a spot and 4 spots to give them. No matter what this was unfair to someone.

Exactly. If four schools left the ACC, why would any ACC school prefer the B12 vs just getting on with it?
That is without considering what B12 schools would prefer the ACC.

DemonDeke said:

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Exactly. If four schools left the ACC, why would any ACC school prefer the B12 vs just getting on with it?
That is without considering what B12 schools would prefer the ACC.

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I could see the ACC expanding in the West/Texas. Basketball schools like Arizona and Kansas might love the ACC. The only ACC schools I can see that might prefer the B-12, money being equal, might be Louisville and SMU. But right now they would have the same buyout as FSU, so no way.

If FSU is successful in getting out of the GoR - or if the penalty is lowered (two big IF's), then what choice would the remaining schools have? The basketball powers of the ACC would no doubt want to go to the B12 because basketball is good there.

Our matchup with FSU at some point looms pretty large. Their 30+ page petition makes no mistake about how much the did not want us or Stanford in the ACC.

The "basketball schools" in the ACC are football schools money wise. If UNC stays, nobody cares about how good the B12 has been im bball recently.

If UNC leaves, but the ACC doesn't evaporate, I think the Big East would be a more attractive home/partner/whatever than the Big 12 (setting Lou to the side).

Jeff82 said:

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Frankly, if the future is two 16-team mega-conferences of potentially illiterate semi-professional players wearing school-colored laundry, and everyone else going back to some system where you play a sport to get your higher education paid for, I wish they would just get on with it. I get that for optics, we can't voluntarily demote, in the same manner that someone who has a piece of property the government wants often forces them to use eminent domain, for the tax benefits, rather than just selling it to them. But the arms race if you're a fan is somewhat exhausting, even on what appears to be a good day like today for signings.

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I'm with you, man.