It's a random internet twitter thread by a big12 "insider", so, (huge) grain of salt and all that:

I have some legit insider information from a source in the sports broadcasting industry that I was going to write up and disseminate, but I don't have the time. So, I'm just going to spill the beans here and now and see who takes notice.

— C.W. Lambert (@InsideTheBig12) April 11, 2024

edwinbear said:

---

It's a random internet twitter thread by a big12 "insider", so, (huge) grain of salt and all that:

I have some legit insider information from a source in the sports broadcasting industry that I was going to write up and disseminate, but I don't have the time. So, I'm just going to spill the beans here and now and see who takes notice.

— C.W. Lambert (@InsideTheBig12) April 11, 2024

---

So what was the "insider info"? I saw nothing when I clicked the link on his post.

Pittstop said:

---

edwinbear said:

---

It's a random internet twitter thread by a big12 "insider", so, (huge) grain of salt and all that:

I have some legit insider information from a source in the sports broadcasting industry that I was going to write up and disseminate, but I don't have the time. So, I'm just going to spill the beans here and now and see who takes notice.

— C.W. Lambert (@InsideTheBig12) April 11, 2024

---

So what was the "insider info"? I saw nothing when I clicked the link on his post.

---

The OP must have seen something that lead to that thread title.

I doubt this very much. There's no way that Clemson or FSU would want a move to the B12. Its SEC or B1G.

I also don't think FSU or Clemson would accept the ACC retaining 50% of fair market value for football and basketball. And either one of these schools wanting to go to the B12 is complete absurdity.

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

Obviously the money weighs heavier for football, but acting in way that would lead to an ACC dissolution they'd be opening up losing ACC college hoops programming on their networks, which isn't great for their cable carriage value.

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

I think the concern for ESPN in regards to the ACC if it survives is that they would be left with essentially a G5 conference and on the hook for more money and a longer time than they would like. If the conference stays intact (very unlikely IMO) then yes it is a good deal.

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

Of course it is - unless they feel that FSU and Clemson have a case. If what this Lambert dude is true, it means that ESPN believes that FSU and Clemson will likely be successful in their lawsuits. FSU's asking for accelerated discovery. There may be some things ACC and ESPN don't want in public. But again, I doubt FSU would want ACC or ESPN to maintain any control over them. And there's no way Clemson or FSU want the B12.

philly1121 said:

---

I doubt this very much. There's no way that Clemson or FSU would want a move to the B12. Its SEC or B1G.

I also don't think FSU or Clemson would accept the ACC retaining 50% of fair market value for football and basketball. And either one of these schools wanting to go to the B12 is complete absurdity.

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The GORs is a signed contract between the schools and the ACC that gives the conference their rights through 2036.

While Clemson and FSU can negotiate an agreement to leave, they would be foolish to do so without an offer from the B1G or SEC. The SEC would require backing from ESPN, because they would pay for it. ESPN has the rights for the SEC and ACC. It is highly questionable that ESPN really wants to spend more for FSU and Clemson than they already do. ESPN facilitated Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC. They worked to keep FSU and Clemson in. Add to that DeSantis is doing everything possible to make Disney not want to do Florida State any favors and…..

As for the B1G, while Fox may think it is a good idea, the B1G presidents are not adding schools that are not AAU members. Maybe Florida State could arrange a deal for Florida to go to the B1G so they can go to the SEC? I doubt it.

And even if all that happens, and even if ESPN doesn't sign the extension that they thought was so good they encouraged Cal, Stanford and SMU to join, the GORs will still be owned by the conference with the ACC left to negotiate a new media deal until the GORs expire after 2036.

6956bear said:

---

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

I think the concern for ESPN in regards to the ACC if it survives is that they would be left with essentially a G5 conference and on the hook for more money and a longer time than they would like. If the conference stays intact (very unlikely IMO) then yes it is a good deal.

---

I have to disagree with you on a Florida St / Clemsonless ACC being on par with a G5 conference. If you look at the numbers this is not even remotely true. The ACC without Clemson and FSU is about double the appeal (based on rough ticket and viewership numbers), and on par with the Big 12.

golden sloth said:

---

6956bear said:

---

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

I think the concern for ESPN in regards to the ACC if it survives is that they would be left with essentially a G5 conference and on the hook for more money and a longer time than they would like. If the conference stays intact (very unlikely IMO) then yes it is a good deal.

---

I have to disagree with you on a Florida St / Clemsonless ACC being on par with a G5 conference. If you look at the numbers this is not even remotely true. The ACC without Clemson and FSU is about double the appeal (based on rough ticket and viewership numbers), and on par with the Big 12.

---

Maybe so if it is only FSU and Clemson leaving. UNC, Miami, UVa and others are watching this carefully and there could be more fallout other than FSU and Clemson. If UNC, MIami, UVa and say NC St or VaTech also get out then you are left with a good G5 league.

These other programs would want out if Clemson and FSU leave. I expect there to be some sort of new alliance formed outside the NCAA within the next few seasons. NIL, transfer portal and CFP concerns are driving college football that direction. The NCAA is absolutely toothless in enforcement and lose every court case they get embroiled in.

Also ESPN could lose the ACC and still maintain control of the CFP. That is the media rights package they covet the most.

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

I doubt this very much. There's no way that Clemson or FSU would want a move to the B12. Its SEC or B1G.

I also don't think FSU or Clemson would accept the ACC retaining 50% of fair market value for football and basketball. And either one of these schools wanting to go to the B12 is complete absurdity.

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The GORs is a signed contract between the schools and the ACC that gives the conference their rights through 2036.

While Clemson and FSU can negotiate an agreement to leave, they would be foolish to do so without an offer from the B1G or SEC. The SEC would require backing from ESPN, because they would pay for it. ESPN has the rights for the SEC and ACC. It is highly questionable that ESPN really wants to spend more for FSU and Clemson than they already do. ESPN facilitated Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC. They worked to keep FSU and Clemson in. Add to that DeSantis is doing everything possible to make Disney not want to do Florida State any favors and…..

As for the B1G, while Fox may think it is a good idea, the B1G presidents are not adding schools that are not AAU members. Maybe Florida State could arrange a deal for Florida to go to the B1G so they can go to the SEC? I doubt it.

And even if all that happens, and even if ESPN doesn't sign the extension that they thought was so good they encouraged Cal, Stanford and SMU to join, the GORs will still be owned by the conference with the ACC left to negotiate a new media deal until the GORs expire after 2036.

---

Perhaps they already do have an offer? Maybe that's one of the reasons they are fighting so hard to get out. Not sure why you keep bringing up Desantis. AAU membership is not a requirement to get into the B1G. I still think the ACC will look different in 2027-28.

6956bear said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

6956bear said:

---

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

I think the concern for ESPN in regards to the ACC if it survives is that they would be left with essentially a G5 conference and on the hook for more money and a longer time than they would like. If the conference stays intact (very unlikely IMO) then yes it is a good deal.

---

I have to disagree with you on a Florida St / Clemsonless ACC being on par with a G5 conference. If you look at the numbers this is not even remotely true. The ACC without Clemson and FSU is about double the appeal (based on rough ticket and viewership numbers), and on par with the Big 12.

---

Maybe so if it is only FSU and Clemson leaving. UNC, Miami, UVa and others are watching this carefully and there could be more fallout other than FSU and Clemson. If UNC, MIami, UVa and say NC St or VaTech also get out then you are left with a good G5 league.

These other programs would want out if Clemson and FSU leave. I expect there to be some sort of new alliance formed outside the NCAA within the next few seasons. NIL, transfer portal and CFP concerns are driving college football that direction. The NCAA is absolutely toothless in enforcement and lose every court case they get embroiled in.

Also ESPN could lose the ACC and still maintain control of the CFP. That is the media rights package they covet the most.

---

Why would the other programs want out of Clemson and FSU leave? Not to make less money in the B-12.

Are there people who honestly believe nearly every school could join the SEC or B1G and magically everyone will make more money? Two 30-40 team superconferences with everyone making triple what the ACC pays without the current members of the B1G and SEC making less? All while the cable model is imploding? It just doesn't add up.

philly1121 said:

---

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

I doubt this very much. There's no way that Clemson or FSU would want a move to the B12. Its SEC or B1G.

I also don't think FSU or Clemson would accept the ACC retaining 50% of fair market value for football and basketball. And either one of these schools wanting to go to the B12 is complete absurdity.

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The GORs is a signed contract between the schools and the ACC that gives the conference their rights through 2036.

While Clemson and FSU can negotiate an agreement to leave, they would be foolish to do so without an offer from the B1G or SEC. The SEC would require backing from ESPN, because they would pay for it. ESPN has the rights for the SEC and ACC. It is highly questionable that ESPN really wants to spend more for FSU and Clemson than they already do. ESPN facilitated Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC. They worked to keep FSU and Clemson in. Add to that DeSantis is doing everything possible to make Disney not want to do Florida State any favors and…..

As for the B1G, while Fox may think it is a good idea, the B1G presidents are not adding schools that are not AAU members. Maybe Florida State could arrange a deal for Florida to go to the B1G so they can go to the SEC? I doubt it.

And even if all that happens, and even if ESPN doesn't sign the extension that they thought was so good they encouraged Cal, Stanford and SMU to join, the GORs will still be owned by the conference with the ACC left to negotiate a new media deal until the GORs expire after 2036.

---

Perhaps they already do have an offer? Maybe that's one of the reasons they are fighting so hard to get out. Not sure why you keep bringing up Desantis. AAU membership is not a requirement to get into the B1G. I still think the ACC will look different in 2027-28.

---

The Big 10 commissioner and multiple presidents have repeatedly said that "AAU membership is an important part of the Big 10." Nebraska was an AAU member and was expelled after the Big 10 had already accepted them. Many Big 10 presidents wanted to rescind, but it was too late. However, it was very clear there was no way Nebraska would have been admitted if they had been expelled from the AAU a year sooner.

Oregon is an AAU member but even then there was resistance from the Big 10 presidents who preferred Cal and Stanford. IMO, the Big 10 would take Miami, who is now an AAU member, over FSU under the same theory they used when they took Rutgers and Maryland. Miami>Tallahassee.

I bring up DeSantis because he is an issue for FSU. ESPN owns the rights to the SEC and the ACC. ESPN already has Florida in the SEC. If FSU were to move from the ACC to the SEC it would require ESPN approval. It would also cost ESPN at least $120 million more over the life of the current contract. That would potentially be a $120 million gift from Disney to the state of Florida. Carol Christ trying to block UCLA alienated Fox Sports COO. Ron DeSantis has done far more to alienate the executives at Disney.

But we will see.

Pittstop said:

---

edwinbear said:

---

It's a random internet twitter thread by a big12 "insider", so, (huge) grain of salt and all that:

I have some legit insider information from a source in the sports broadcasting industry that I was going to write up and disseminate, but I don't have the time. So, I'm just going to spill the beans here and now and see who takes notice.

— C.W. Lambert (@InsideTheBig12) April 11, 2024

---

So what was the "insider info"? I saw nothing when I clicked the link on his post.

---

It was a twitter thread. He responds to his own post that you're supposed to read through in like a series of 10 posts or something like that after clicking.

edwinbear said:

---

Pittstop said:

---

edwinbear said:

---

It's a random internet twitter thread by a big12 "insider", so, (huge) grain of salt and all that:

I have some legit insider information from a source in the sports broadcasting industry that I was going to write up and disseminate, but I don't have the time. So, I'm just going to spill the beans here and now and see who takes notice.

— C.W. Lambert (@InsideTheBig12) April 11, 2024

---

So what was the "insider info"? I saw nothing when I clicked the link on his post.

---

It was a twitter thread. He responds to his own post that you're supposed to read through in like a series of 10 posts or something like that after clicking.

---

I don't have a Xitter account, can someone summarize?

6956bear said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

6956bear said:

---

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

I think the concern for ESPN in regards to the ACC if it survives is that they would be left with essentially a G5 conference and on the hook for more money and a longer time than they would like. If the conference stays intact (very unlikely IMO) then yes it is a good deal.

---

I have to disagree with you on a Florida St / Clemsonless ACC being on par with a G5 conference. If you look at the numbers this is not even remotely true. The ACC without Clemson and FSU is about double the appeal (based on rough ticket and viewership numbers), and on par with the Big 12.

---

Maybe so if it is only FSU and Clemson leaving. UNC, Miami, UVa and others are watching this carefully and there could be more fallout other than FSU and Clemson. If UNC, MIami, UVa and say NC St or VaTech also get out then you are left with a good G5 league.

These other programs would want out if Clemson and FSU leave. I expect there to be some sort of new alliance formed outside the NCAA within the next few seasons. NIL, transfer portal and CFP concerns are driving college football that direction. The NCAA is absolutely toothless in enforcement and lose every court case they get embroiled in.

Also ESPN could lose the ACC and still maintain control of the CFP. That is the media rights package they covet the most.

---

If you take the top half of any conference away it's going to start looking like lesser conference.

LOL. This is from C.W. Lambert's website Big12Insider.com

golden sloth said:

---

6956bear said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

6956bear said:

---

Strykur said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The ACC GOR is a great deal for ESPN, letting it fall apart would not make sense for them and they would be handing a bunch of properties over to FOX.

---

I think the concern for ESPN in regards to the ACC if it survives is that they would be left with essentially a G5 conference and on the hook for more money and a longer time than they would like. If the conference stays intact (very unlikely IMO) then yes it is a good deal.

---

I have to disagree with you on a Florida St / Clemsonless ACC being on par with a G5 conference. If you look at the numbers this is not even remotely true. The ACC without Clemson and FSU is about double the appeal (based on rough ticket and viewership numbers), and on par with the Big 12.

---

Maybe so if it is only FSU and Clemson leaving. UNC, Miami, UVa and others are watching this carefully and there could be more fallout other than FSU and Clemson. If UNC, MIami, UVa and say NC St or VaTech also get out then you are left with a good G5 league.

These other programs would want out if Clemson and FSU leave. I expect there to be some sort of new alliance formed outside the NCAA within the next few seasons. NIL, transfer portal and CFP concerns are driving college football that direction. The NCAA is absolutely toothless in enforcement and lose every court case they get embroiled in.

Also ESPN could lose the ACC and still maintain control of the CFP. That is the media rights package they covet the most.

---

If you take the top half of any conference away it's going to start looking like lesser conference.

---

Sure enough. But we saw what happened to the P12 when USC and UCLA left. If you want to play big boy ball and get paid like a P4 program you cannot lose your most valuable members to another conference. The Big 12 is getting paid similarly to the ACC right now. But the distributions agreed to for the CFP starting in 2026 are the lowest of any of the P4.

There is no question that the Big 12 is now perceived to be the worst of the P4 conferences since OU and UT departed to the SEC. Every major conference has a big 2 so to speak. But no more in the Big 12. The reality is the ACC cannot lose FSU and Clemson and expect to be treated as they are today. And today they are a clear #3 in the P4 and getting paid like it by TV.

No way UNC, Miami, UVa and any other program will sit by and watch their value go down if they have options. Right now Cal has no other options. That is why this upcoming season is so crucial. They need to start winning to have a chance at the next realignment.

The other professional leagues have salary caps, except for those owned by the bone saw syndicate.

The Aramco Athletic Conference may be coming to an educational institution near you.

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

calumnus said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

I doubt this very much. There's no way that Clemson or FSU would want a move to the B12. Its SEC or B1G.

I also don't think FSU or Clemson would accept the ACC retaining 50% of fair market value for football and basketball. And either one of these schools wanting to go to the B12 is complete absurdity.

The only thing I think is accurate is that it is likely FSU and Clemson negotiate their way out prior to 2027. And if that happens, and I think it will, ESPN walks away from the 2036 option and the GoR is kaput.

---

The GORs is a signed contract between the schools and the ACC that gives the conference their rights through 2036.

While Clemson and FSU can negotiate an agreement to leave, they would be foolish to do so without an offer from the B1G or SEC. The SEC would require backing from ESPN, because they would pay for it. ESPN has the rights for the SEC and ACC. It is highly questionable that ESPN really wants to spend more for FSU and Clemson than they already do. ESPN facilitated Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC. They worked to keep FSU and Clemson in. Add to that DeSantis is doing everything possible to make Disney not want to do Florida State any favors and…..

As for the B1G, while Fox may think it is a good idea, the B1G presidents are not adding schools that are not AAU members. Maybe Florida State could arrange a deal for Florida to go to the B1G so they can go to the SEC? I doubt it.

And even if all that happens, and even if ESPN doesn't sign the extension that they thought was so good they encouraged Cal, Stanford and SMU to join, the GORs will still be owned by the conference with the ACC left to negotiate a new media deal until the GORs expire after 2036.

---

Perhaps they already do have an offer? Maybe that's one of the reasons they are fighting so hard to get out. Not sure why you keep bringing up Desantis. AAU membership is not a requirement to get into the B1G. I still think the ACC will look different in 2027-28.

---

The Big 10 commissioner and multiple presidents have repeatedly said that "AAU membership is an important part of the Big 10." Nebraska was an AAU member and was expelled after the Big 10 had already accepted them. Many Big 10 presidents wanted to rescind, but it was too late. However, it was very clear there was no way Nebraska would have been admitted if they had been expelled from the AAU a year sooner.

Oregon is an AAU member but even then there was resistance from the Big 10 presidents who preferred Cal and Stanford. IMO, the Big 10 would take Miami, who is now an AAU member, over FSU under the same theory they used when they took Rutgers and Maryland. Miami>Tallahassee.

I bring up DeSantis because he is an issue for FSU. ESPN owns the rights to the SEC and the ACC. ESPN already has Florida in the SEC. If FSU were to move from the ACC to the SEC it would require ESPN approval. It would also cost ESPN at least $120 million more over the life of the current contract. That would potentially be a $120 million gift from Disney to the state of Florida. Carol Christ trying to block UCLA alienated Fox Sports COO. Ron DeSantis has done far more to alienate the executives at Disney.

But we will see.

---

The lawsuits between Disney and Florida (DeSantis) have been settled. Both have moved on. Disney has already agreed to work with the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District and is likely to spend several billion dollars in infrastructure upgrades in Orlando. This is a nonthing-burger.

AAU membership is preferred, but it is not required. I can hardly think of any context where the B1G denies FSU entry and thus denies the B1G from entry into Florida. They would likely give FSU a deadline to gain AAU membership in order to stay in the B1G.

I think this dude is trying to find an angle to make the B12 relevant. But I think his underlying premise is probably sound. They're looking for a negotiated way out. I think ESPN and the ACC know Clemson and FSU are going to leave, its just a question of what the collateral effect will be for UNC, NC State, UVA and Miami.

• If B1G not interested in Cal, why would they be interested in UVA? Granted, UVA basketball is better than Cal, but football record arguably worse than Cal and their stadium attendance roughly similar. Big1G is already in the DC TV market with Maryland.
• Aren't UNC and NC State under some unified form of governance? I'll bet the state would mandate that both schools be in the same conference and since neither is a football power, I bet this would be a non-starter for either B1G or SEC. Sort of similar to the aborted Cal-Stanford deal with B1G, except UNC and NC State have the basketball appeal.

HearstMining said:

---

• If B1G not interested in Cal, why would they be interested in UVA? Granted, UVA basketball is better than Cal, but football record arguably worse than Cal and their stadium attendance roughly similar. Big1G is already in the DC TV market with Maryland.
• Aren't UNC and NC State under some unified form of governance? I'll bet the state would mandate that both schools be in the same conference and since neither is a football power, I bet this would be a non-starter for either B1G or SEC. Sort of similar to the aborted Cal-Stanford deal with B1G, except UNC and NC State have the basketball appeal.

---

I think the B1G didn't pass on Cal and Stanford once and for all, but rather did so specific to this past round of realignment. The Fox Sports partners were tapped (and only took Oregon and Washington at a heavy discount) with the Bay Area schools not brining enough perceived brand strength. Still think it was crazy for them not to offer us a bargain basement prices similar to what the ACC discount we are getting (we'd have probably accepted even lower).

Agree that I don't see the brand value or market for UVA being stronger than Cal, and certainly NC State seems lower on all metrics other than marginal more football and (more than marginal) basketball success, but not $ needle moving levels of success.

If the B1G expands again, it either goes to 20 and probably only adds FSU plus (UNC?, don't see Clemson in B1G), or it goes a bit bigger, 24 makes sense and I would expect Cal and Stanford to get strong consideration again.

sosheezy said:

---

HearstMining said:

---

• If B1G not interested in Cal, why would they be interested in UVA? Granted, UVA basketball is better than Cal, but football record arguably worse than Cal and their stadium attendance roughly similar. Big1G is already in the DC TV market with Maryland.
• Aren't UNC and NC State under some unified form of governance? I'll bet the state would mandate that both schools be in the same conference and since neither is a football power, I bet this would be a non-starter for either B1G or SEC. Sort of similar to the aborted Cal-Stanford deal with B1G, except UNC and NC State have the basketball appeal.

---

I think the B1G didn't pass on Cal and Stanford once and for all, but rather did so specific to this past round of realignment. The Fox Sports partners were tapped (and only took Oregon and Washington at a heavy discount) with the Bay Area schools not brining enough perceived brand strength. Still think it was crazy for them not to offer us a bargain basement prices similar to what the ACC discount we are getting (we'd have probably accepted even lower).

Agree that I don't see the brand value or market for UVA being stronger than Cal, and certainly NC State seems lower on all metrics other than marginal more football and (more than marginal) basketball success, but not $ needle moving levels of success.

If the B1G expands again, it either goes to 20 and probably only adds FSU plus (UNC?, don't see Clemson in B1G), or it goes a bit bigger, 24 makes sense and I would expect Cal and Stanford to get strong consideration again.

---

I do wonder if the TV exec's see they need a footprint in the bay area, but cant justify two schools in that market due to the fact it underperforms as a college sports market. In short, if they only want one of Cal and Stanford, which one gets in?

https://stanforddaily.com/2024/04/11/stanford-student-athletes-advocate-for-direct-compensation/

The CWL thread basically asserts that as ESPN has ACC and SEC, that to ESPN, it's just moving pieces on the chessboard. He also suggests FSU/Clemson won't get the big SEC paydays, but get what they are currently getting - OR there would some sort of kickback (think Calimony) by FSU/Clemson to the ACC from their SEC payouts. For FSU/Clemson it would be a play for the next round of realignment.
I don't doubt that Lambert heard this from someone - but a true "insider" is unlikely. It may be someone at a university who is speculating about a potential settlement at the end of the day - but there are lots of moving parts, such that the end day is probably far away.

LessMilesMoreTedford said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

sosheezy said:

---

HearstMining said:

---

• If B1G not interested in Cal, why would they be interested in UVA? Granted, UVA basketball is better than Cal, but football record arguably worse than Cal and their stadium attendance roughly similar. Big1G is already in the DC TV market with Maryland.
• Aren't UNC and NC State under some unified form of governance? I'll bet the state would mandate that both schools be in the same conference and since neither is a football power, I bet this would be a non-starter for either B1G or SEC. Sort of similar to the aborted Cal-Stanford deal with B1G, except UNC and NC State have the basketball appeal.

---

I think the B1G didn't pass on Cal and Stanford once and for all, but rather did so specific to this past round of realignment. The Fox Sports partners were tapped (and only took Oregon and Washington at a heavy discount) with the Bay Area schools not brining enough perceived brand strength. Still think it was crazy for them not to offer us a bargain basement prices similar to what the ACC discount we are getting (we'd have probably accepted even lower).

Agree that I don't see the brand value or market for UVA being stronger than Cal, and certainly NC State seems lower on all metrics other than marginal more football and (more than marginal) basketball success, but not $ needle moving levels of success.

If the B1G expands again, it either goes to 20 and probably only adds FSU plus (UNC?, don't see Clemson in B1G), or it goes a bit bigger, 24 makes sense and I would expect Cal and Stanford to get strong consideration again.

---

I do wonder if the TV exec's see they need a footprint in the bay area, but cant justify two schools in that market due to the fact it underperforms as a college sports market. In short, if they only want one of Cal and Stanford, which one gets in?

---

Stanford. But Stanford has made it clear they won't go anywhere without Cal. Unlike Oregon/Washington, they do care about their rivals.

---

If it becomes a truly existential issue for their athletics, do you really think they'll care about Cal? Remember, this is the school that invented a "rivalry" with Notre Dame that ruined the Big Game being the final game of the season.

HearstMining said:

---

LessMilesMoreTedford said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

sosheezy said:

---

HearstMining said:

---

• If B1G not interested in Cal, why would they be interested in UVA? Granted, UVA basketball is better than Cal, but football record arguably worse than Cal and their stadium attendance roughly similar. Big1G is already in the DC TV market with Maryland.
• Aren't UNC and NC State under some unified form of governance? I'll bet the state would mandate that both schools be in the same conference and since neither is a football power, I bet this would be a non-starter for either B1G or SEC. Sort of similar to the aborted Cal-Stanford deal with B1G, except UNC and NC State have the basketball appeal.

---

I think the B1G didn't pass on Cal and Stanford once and for all, but rather did so specific to this past round of realignment. The Fox Sports partners were tapped (and only took Oregon and Washington at a heavy discount) with the Bay Area schools not brining enough perceived brand strength. Still think it was crazy for them not to offer us a bargain basement prices similar to what the ACC discount we are getting (we'd have probably accepted even lower).

Agree that I don't see the brand value or market for UVA being stronger than Cal, and certainly NC State seems lower on all metrics other than marginal more football and (more than marginal) basketball success, but not $ needle moving levels of success.

If the B1G expands again, it either goes to 20 and probably only adds FSU plus (UNC?, don't see Clemson in B1G), or it goes a bit bigger, 24 makes sense and I would expect Cal and Stanford to get strong consideration again.

---

I do wonder if the TV exec's see they need a footprint in the bay area, but cant justify two schools in that market due to the fact it underperforms as a college sports market. In short, if they only want one of Cal and Stanford, which one gets in?

---

Stanford. But Stanford has made it clear they won't go anywhere without Cal. Unlike Oregon/Washington, they do care about their rivals.

---

If it becomes a truly existential issue for their athletics, do you really think they'll care about Cal? Remember, this is the school that invented a "rivalry" with Notre Dame that ruined the Big Game being the final game of the season.

---

If the final game of the season is played after Thanksgiving, then Big Game will never be the final game of the season.

The scenario sounds vaguely plausible, but I would point out that Lambert was also the guy strongly predicting that Stanford and Cal would not be getting ACC invites last fall. So just keep that in mind.

HearstMining said:

---

LessMilesMoreTedford said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

sosheezy said:

---

HearstMining said:

---

• If B1G not interested in Cal, why would they be interested in UVA? Granted, UVA basketball is better than Cal, but football record arguably worse than Cal and their stadium attendance roughly similar. Big1G is already in the DC TV market with Maryland.
• Aren't UNC and NC State under some unified form of governance? I'll bet the state would mandate that both schools be in the same conference and since neither is a football power, I bet this would be a non-starter for either B1G or SEC. Sort of similar to the aborted Cal-Stanford deal with B1G, except UNC and NC State have the basketball appeal.

---

I think the B1G didn't pass on Cal and Stanford once and for all, but rather did so specific to this past round of realignment. The Fox Sports partners were tapped (and only took Oregon and Washington at a heavy discount) with the Bay Area schools not brining enough perceived brand strength. Still think it was crazy for them not to offer us a bargain basement prices similar to what the ACC discount we are getting (we'd have probably accepted even lower).

Agree that I don't see the brand value or market for UVA being stronger than Cal, and certainly NC State seems lower on all metrics other than marginal more football and (more than marginal) basketball success, but not $ needle moving levels of success.

If the B1G expands again, it either goes to 20 and probably only adds FSU plus (UNC?, don't see Clemson in B1G), or it goes a bit bigger, 24 makes sense and I would expect Cal and Stanford to get strong consideration again.

---

I do wonder if the TV exec's see they need a footprint in the bay area, but cant justify two schools in that market due to the fact it underperforms as a college sports market. In short, if they only want one of Cal and Stanford, which one gets in?

---

Stanford. But Stanford has made it clear they won't go anywhere without Cal. Unlike Oregon/Washington, they do care about their rivals.

---

If it becomes a truly existential issue for their athletics, do you really think they'll care about Cal? Remember, this is the school that invented a "rivalry" with Notre Dame that ruined the Big Game being the final game of the season.

---

As you probably remember, back in the day the Saturday after Thanksgiving was reserved for just a few select rivalry football games. With expanded schedules and TV payoffs, that became a full fledged football Saturday.
For schools that have a tightly regional fan base/student base, playing the holiday weekend is less problematic...for Cal, it's not ideal, and having their biggest rivalry game certainly would be difficult for Cal students.
You could still make the argument that the Big Game could be the last game of the season (the weekend before) but that would mean losing the bye week, and therefore be a competitive disadvantage.

ncbears said:

---

The CWL thread basically asserts that as ESPN has ACC and SEC, that to ESPN, it's just moving pieces on the chessboard. He also suggests FSU/Clemson won't get the big SEC paydays, but get what they are currently getting - OR there would some sort of kickback (think Calimony) by FSU/Clemson to the ACC from their SEC payouts. For FSU/Clemson it would be a play for the next round of realignment.
I don't doubt that Lambert heard this from someone - but a true "insider" is unlikely. It may be someone at a university who is speculating about a potential settlement at the end of the day - but there are lots of moving parts, such that the end day is probably far away.

---

He literally says on his website it's all parody. Nothing he says has a shred of truth. At best, he occasionally parrots rumors he already saw elsewhere.

Clemson will not receive an offer from the Big Ten as the universities' academics and cultures are so at variance with that of the conference (indeed, Clemson is a prototype SEC school). I must concede that I was confident that Oregon would never be invited to the Big Ten to give some context to my credibility on these matters.

Florida State and Clemson may have had some "nudge, nudge, wink, wink" conversations with individuals that have informal ties to the Big Ten and the SEC, but I highly doubt that there has been any official contact or secure invitations; such activities would open the conferences to tortious interference lawsuits. There will not be any official discussions between the conferences and the schools until all legal issues are resolved.

If Florida State does not receive a Big Ten invitation it will not be because of AAU status; Florida State's academics have been rapidly improving, and by any reasonable measure their academics are (and certainly will be in the future) superior to those of Oregon. My impression is that AAU status is much preferred by the Big Ten presidents, but is not an absolute. Every Big Ten president knew that Nebraska's AAU status was hanging by a thread for the previous decade (Wisconsin and Michigan provided the crucial votes to expel the Cornhuskers!), yet they were invited anyway, and an AAU-less Notre Dame clearly had a standing invitation for the last quarter century (at least).

I believe that all of the "Florida State/Clemson to the Big Ten" discussion is nonsensical; the locations of each university are deep in the heart of Dixie (the panhandle of Florida is not "Florida"), and in any case I cannot imagine that ESPN, who holds the whip hand in this situation, will allow two valuable schools they have under contract to move to the Big Ten. The most likely outcome in my view is that there will be a negotiated settlement where the two schools move to the SEC and the remaining ACC schools soldier on with the current conference membership.

I continue to be disappointed and puzzled as to why the Big Ten did not invite Stanford and Cal to the conference last summer. Even if FOX/CBS/NBC would not increase their payments on the current contract, opening a fourth window ("Big Ten After Dark") would have surely produced sufficient additional income to pay for the two schools (even ESPN might have bid on this package) given their acceptance of the limited ACC payout. Perhaps the Big Ten presidents were concerned about swallowing six new schools, all with close internal ties, simultaneously; this group would be a formidable voting bloc whose impact would be unpredictable. I still hold out hope that sometime in the not-too-distant future the Bay Area schools will receive an invitation to the Big Ten.