Great article from today's WSJ -- You Won't Believe College Football This Season

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Gobears49
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https://www.wsj.com/

You Won't Believe College Football This Season

Conference realignment, no more Coach Saban and Coach Harbaugh, and an expanded playoff. The game has never been in a more turbulent state.

Lots of great comments to the article, most disdainful. Here's mine



As a long time Cal fan ("Go Bears"), and a former yell leader there, I have been pitching for the creation of a new conference for Cal consisting of Cal, Stanford, Oregon St., Washington St, Boise St., ,,Fresno St., San Jose St., San Diego St., and UNLV -- the Pac 9.

Allows the avoidance of ridiculous trips to ACC teams for football and basketball games (not known if a 9 a.m. west coast departure for a fan will allow him to change planes going east to reach all ACC destinations that require a plane change by midnight eastern time). Allows a game every other year, on a home and away basis, versus UNLV, played at the Raiders stadium, with all of the great activities Las Vegas offers, plus a game every other year in touristy San Diego. Also allows four non conference football games a year to fill out the schedule against quality opponents across the country. (perhaps another game against Notre Dame?).

And, I have heard talk that the new national playoff schedule will soon be expanded to thirteen teams from twelve, allowing the new Pac 9, as a major conference, to easily secure at least one national playoff spot, something tha old Pac 12 never enjoyed.





Gobears49
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7/8/24 article in WSJ -- both the article and comments are great A must read for all Cal fans.

JASON GAY

You Won't Believe College Football This Season
Eastern Oregon Bear
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The problem with your proposed PAC-9 is that it would not be considered a major conference. It would be considered a slightly improved Mountain West conference and would be just another G5 (or G6?) conference. We would also get Mountain West level media money ($6 million last year) and Cal can't survive at that level.

Of course, we've explained this to you over and over, but you're going to bullheadedly stick to your fantasy scenario, so I'm wasting my time here.
Gobears49
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You stated "The problem with your proposed PAC-9 is that it would not be considered a major conference. It would be considered a slightly improved Mountain West conference and would be just another G5 (or G6?) conference. We would also get Mountain West level media money ($6 million last year) and Cal can't survive at that level.

Of course, we've explained this to you over and over, but you're going to bullheadedly stick to your fantasy scenario, so I'm wasting my time here."

I disagree with everything you stated.

1. My proposed conference would be a major conference. Define what is a major conference. There is no requirement I know of relating to the required overall size of eany conference. Perhaps you can cite that rule to me. If need be, I I can add additional FBS schools to the conference, as there are many other western FBS Mountain West schools to choose from. For instance, Hawaii will likely have a decent stadium once they build a new one, likely within five years, which will raises their attendance substantially. And it would be a great place for people to vacation at while hey watch their local team play. BTW, Oregon St. is clearly the second best state in the country to go wine tasting. I know because I do that all of the time.

The only rule I know of is that a FBS conference must be composed of only BS schools, a rule which my proposed conference would meet, as all five of the schools which are not from the Pac 12, plus all of the other current Mountain West schools meet the definition, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_programs. Boise St, Fresno St., San Jose St., San Diego St., and UNLV are listed above as FBS schools, as are all of the other schools in the Mountain West.

I am not familiar with the $6 million 2023 media money number you listed, but that was a pure Mountain West figure. You conveniently left out the fact the new conference could have four bigger schools in it that would not be from the Mountain West -- Cal, Stanford, Oregon St., and Washington St., thus raising the amount the new conference would be due fpr Pac 9 participation..

I should add that I believe a good part of college football world is essentially laughing at the predicament Cal has been forced into, due to a number of factors.. I am not sure who is responsible for that.

If the new conference met the FBS rules, it would automatically get a bowl bid under the expected new expanded playoff rules, and maybe more than one in a year where the conference had two or three really strong teams, based upon their record. Contrast that with the fact that Cal never came close to being selected to participate in the national playoffs, due to the small number of schools which could participate in it in those years.

Anarchistbear
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Stanford shouldn't be in this conference. They don't match up academically or athletically
wifeisafurd
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Redux non-starter. You either understand the economics of college football or you keep blabbing about the same idea that doesn't work. No one in the Pac 9 warrants sufficient TV money rights to keep the conference competitive. Nor would anyone who matters (e.g., the Power Conference Commissioners, TV executives, College Playoff Committees, etc.) recognize the Pac 9 major conference, which should be obvious by now. There is a reason Cal, Furd and SMU are taking huge revenue hits in order to not be in a Pac 9 conference, which they came within one vote of being in.
MTbear22
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Gobears49 said:

Define what is a major conference.
A major conference, as understood by apparently everyone on this planet but yourself, is a conference with enough high-level football brands to command major conference money.

The conference you suggest is nowhere near that. It would command significantly less media money than the current ACC or Big XII, which are themselves already tens of millions per school behind the SEC and B1G.

This conference you propose is the worst idea in a long sad history of bad ideas, besides the last time this same trash was proposed. Respectfully.
MTbear22
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Is this the same poster who just keeps trotting out the same horrendous idea over and over every couple months or so?
calumnus
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MTbear22 said:

Is this the same poster who just keeps trotting out the same horrendous idea over and over every couple months or so?


Yes, but judging from his handle he may be 97 years old, if so, we can give him some slack.
GoldenB
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calumnus said:




Yes, but judging from his handle he may be 97 years old, if so, we can give him some slack.
Now I understand that explains a lot
BearBoarBlarney
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I can't quite figure out what's a worse idea: a Pac-9 Conference with dwarf-like media rights or a dwarf-like statue dedicated to Joe Starkey with The Play on video repeat.

A bad idea, repeated often, is still a bad idea.
juarezbear
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Gobears49 said:

You stated "The problem with your proposed PAC-9 is that it would not be considered a major conference. It would be considered a slightly improved Mountain West conference and would be just another G5 (or G6?) conference. We would also get Mountain West level media money ($6 million last year) and Cal can't survive at that level.

Of course, we've explained this to you over and over, but you're going to bullheadedly stick to your fantasy scenario, so I'm wasting my time here."

I disagree with everything you stated.

1. My proposed conference would be a major conference. Define what is a major conference. There is no requirement I know of relating to the required overall size of eany conference. Perhaps you can cite that rule to me. If need be, I I can add additional FBS schools to the conference, as there are many other western FBS Mountain West schools to choose from. For instance, Hawaii will likely have a decent stadium once they build a new one, likely within five years, which will raises their attendance substantially. And it would be a great place for people to vacation at while hey watch their local team play. BTW, Oregon St. is clearly the second best state in the country to go wine tasting. I know because I do that all of the time.

The only rule I know of is that a FBS conference must be composed of only BS schools, a rule which my proposed conference would meet, as all five of the schools which are not from the Pac 12, plus all of the other current Mountain West schools meet the definition, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_programs. Boise St, Fresno St., San Jose St., San Diego St., and UNLV are listed above as FBS schools, as are all of the other schools in the Mountain West.

I am not familiar with the $6 million 2023 media money number you listed, but that was a pure Mountain West figure. You conveniently left out the fact the new conference could have four bigger schools in it that would not be from the Mountain West -- Cal, Stanford, Oregon St., and Washington St., thus raising the amount the new conference would be due fpr Pac 9 participation..

I should add that I believe a good part of college football world is essentially laughing at the predicament Cal has been forced into, due to a number of factors.. I am not sure who is responsible for that.

If the new conference met the FBS rules, it would automatically get a bowl bid under the expected new expanded playoff rules, and maybe more than one in a year where the conference had two or three really strong teams, based upon their record. Contrast that with the fact that Cal never came close to being selected to participate in the national playoffs, due to the small number of schools which could participate in it in those years.




The problem is that it doesn't matter what you or I think is a major conference. All that matters is what ESPN, Fox, and to a lesser degree CBS and MNC think is a major conference. None of your proposed teams have any marquee value to draw eyeballs or sponsors. Sadly, that's all that matters in today's landscape.
Econ141
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wifeisafurd said:



You either understand the economics of college football or you keep blabbing about the same idea that don't work.




I read this in Harvey Dent's voice and it worked perfectly.
Give to Cal Legends!

https://calegends.com/donation/ Do it now. Text every Cal fan you know, give them the link, tell them how much you gave, and ask them to text every Cal fan they know and do the same.
01Bear
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Econ141 said:

wifeisafurd said:



You either understand the economics of college football or you keep blabbing about the same idea that don't work.




I read this in Harvey Dent's voice and it worked perfectly.

Which Harvey Dent? Clancy Brown?
kal kommie
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Didn't we contractually commit ourselves to the ACC until 2036? Could we leave even if we had a decent home to relocate to?
socaltownie
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This is a really mute point and reads like "Some one moved my cheese and I don't like it."

As others point out, the Pac-9 would not be invited to the playoffs, would not get much (any?) TV revenue. It likely would require (to even approach breaking even) an annual student fee (note like every other UC than UCLA) on students that approaches 4 figures for the year. It really would be the worst of all possible worlds.

That is written by someone who before the ACC lifeline (which I hate and believe is only a temporary stay of execution) who believed that the best course of action was to go "Big Sky-like" - providing a pleasant afternoon for 10-20K fans who would go to memorial to see the Bears play Davis.

I really believe (as a dad of a currrent student who is starting to actually understand something about the current student body) that Cal and the trajectory of big time football is incompatible. (I would think the same about Purdue, Georgia Tech and a number of other highly selective schools). But for now that train has left the station and we are along for the ride. Lets go Bears. Atlantic Coast Champions on the Pacific!!!
ColoradoBear
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kal kommie said:

Didn't we contractually commit ourselves to the ACC until 2036? Could we leave even if we had a decent home to relocate to?


Yes, though there is some question of whether the GOR would last past 2027 if ESPN opts out (supposedly they have the right to decide in winter 2025). Penalty for leaving is 2 seasons of revenue, on top of losing the tv rights. Of course if no decent TV contract, the ACC might decide to disband. Or could vote to disband if 3/4 have found a suitable home.

I'd hope there will be a way (believe it would require a NCAA rules change) for Cal to move most non-rev sports out of the ACC eventually and save everyone some $$$ on travel.


golden sloth
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ColoradoBear said:

kal kommie said:

Didn't we contractually commit ourselves to the ACC until 2036? Could we leave even if we had a decent home to relocate to?


Yes, though there is some question of whether the GOR would last past 2027 if ESPN opts out (supposedly they have the right to decide in winter 2025). Penalty for leaving is 2 seasons of revenue, on top of losing the tv rights. Of course if no decent TV contract, the ACC might decide to disband. Or could vote to disband if 3/4 have found a suitable home.

I'd hope there will be a way (believe it would require a NCAA rules change) for Cal to move most non-rev sports out of the ACC eventually and save everyone some $$$ on travel.





Chip Kelly talked about that, stating that conference affiliation for football should independent of all the other sports.

It hastens the path to superconferences, but it also makes a ton of sense to allow schools to chase money where the money is made (football), and be economical with the sports that lose money.
wifeisafurd
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kal kommie said:

Didn't we contractually commit ourselves to the ACC until 2036? Could we leave even if we had a decent home to relocate to?
No Cal would have to buy its way out like FSU and Clemson as Cal signed the Grant of Rights or ESPN would have to opt out, also not likely. The only way out is if in essence the ACC as a conference implodes. Cal obviously doesn't have the money to do a buy out. Another good point that is wasted on this one trick pony. See SCT for more obvious reasons which have been presented before why there will never be a pac 9.
calumnus
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ColoradoBear said:

kal kommie said:

Didn't we contractually commit ourselves to the ACC until 2036? Could we leave even if we had a decent home to relocate to?


Yes, though there is some question of whether the GOR would last past 2027 if ESPN opts out (supposedly they have the right to decide in winter 2025). Penalty for leaving is 2 seasons of revenue, on top of losing the tv rights. Of course if no decent TV contract, the ACC might decide to disband. Or could vote to disband if 3/4 have found a suitable home.

I'd hope there will be a way (believe it would require a NCAA rules change) for Cal to move most non-rev sports out of the ACC eventually and save everyone some $$$ on travel.





If for some strange reason ESPN chooses not to renew what they clearly see as a good deal and the best way to stay in the Notre Dame sweepstakes, then the ACC still owns everyone's GORs. I still don't see 9 (simple majority) or 11 (2/3rds majority) schools voting to disband when only a handful would be potential B1G or SEC additions. For the majority, they are far better off keeping together with FSU, Clemson and North Carolina in the fold. Ironically, of all the ACC schools, Cal and Stanford might have the best shot at the B1G as part of an expansion of their West Coast pod.
Gobears49
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You guys are wrong about everything.. 49 comes from the fact that I was born in 1949!
Gobears49
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I read a few month ago a comment from an ACC fan that 5,000 or so people from his ACC alma mater were planning to attend a scheduled football game next season at UNLV but only 1,000 or so were planning to a attend a Cal game at Cal the same year. Shows what an attraction Vegas is in drawing fans from around the country.

Going to a game at a location that is fun is a huge draw in getting fans to make it a travel destination when your team plays them. I had a whale of a time visiting Austin when Cal played Texas ten or so years ago. Even made it to four BBQ joints there in one day. Also went to some nice wineries in the foothills about an hour outside of the city. All in all, had a great time there and got to see my Bears win a thriller vs. Texas.

Here's a list of the top travel destinations in the U.S. Las Vegas is clearly #1. Cal fans would love to visit Vegas every few years or so for its fun attributes while watching there Bears play. UNLV plays in the Raiders stadium, another reason to attend a Cal game there. https://wallethub.com/edu/most-fun-cities-in-the-us/23455

MTbear22
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Gobears49 said:

I read a few month ago a comment from an ACC fan that 5,000 or so people from his ACC alma mater were planning to attend a scheduled football game next season at UNLV but only 1,000 or so were planning to a attend a Cal game at Cal the same year. Shows what an attraction Vegas is in drawing fans from around the country.

Going to a game at a location that is fun is a huge draw in getting fans to make it a travel destination when your team plays them. I had a whale of a time visiting Austin when Cal played Texas ten or so years ago. Even made it to four BBQ joints there in one day. Also went to some nice wineries in the foothills about an hour outside of the city. All in all, had a great time there and got to see my Bears win a thriller vs. Texas.

Here's a list of the top travel destinations in the U.S. Las Vegas is clearly #1. Cal fans would love to visit Vegas every few years or so for its fun attributes while watching there Bears play. UNLV plays in the Raiders stadium, another reason to attend a Cal game there. https://wallethub.com/edu/most-fun-cities-in-the-us/23455


And absolutely none of what you just said matters at all. The conference you suggest is a G5 league and no one on this boar or associated with Cal athletics is ready to throw in the towel become a G5 program. Seriously, worse than the current ACC or Big XII by far.
southseasbear
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Gobears49 said:

I read a few month ago a comment from an ACC fan that 5,000 or so people from his ACC alma mater were planning to attend a scheduled football game next season at UNLV but only 1,000 or so were planning to a attend a Cal game at Cal the same year. Shows what an attraction Vegas is in drawing fans from around the country.

Going to a game at a location that is fun is a huge draw in getting fans to make it a travel destination when your team plays them. I had a whale of a time visiting Austin when Cal played Texas ten or so years ago. Even made it to four BBQ joints there in one day. Also went to some nice wineries in the foothills about an hour outside of the city. All in all, had a great time there and got to see my Bears win a thriller vs. Texas.

Here's a list of the top travel destinations in the U.S. Las Vegas is clearly #1. Cal fans would love to visit Vegas every few years or so for its fun attributes while watching there Bears play. UNLV plays in the Raiders stadium, another reason to attend a Cal game there. https://wallethub.com/edu/most-fun-cities-in-the-us/23455


The Pac-12 should have added UNLV and SDSU right after those LA schools announced their departure. I advocated for that expansion at the time along with possibly adding SMU and maybe Rice (for travel purposes). It might have saved the Pac, but there was resistance, possibly because schools like Oregon and Washington (to the B1G) and Colorado (to the Big-XII) were too busy cutting their own exit deals. That ship has sailed.

Boise and Fresno are nonstarters. Cal would have disbanded football before going into a conference with them.
Gobears49
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Boise St. is projected to be a top 35 team this year. Fresno St. is probably projected to be a top 45 team this year. Boise St. has not had a losing season since before 1995. Cal would clearly be projected to lose to them this season. Good teams.

I expect San Diego St., with their new stadium, will recruit better than before. And UNLV has turned things around. I think they are projected to be the second best team in their conference this year. The Mountain West is an up and coming conference. Probably equal to the remaining four Pac 12 schools.
MTbear22
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Gobears49 said:

Boise St. is projected to be a top 35 team this year. Fresno St. is probably projected to be a top 45 team this year. Boise St. has not had a losing season since before 1995. Cal would clearly be projected to lose to them this season. Good teams.

I expect San Diego St., with their new stadium, will recruit better than before. And UNLV has turned things around. I think they are projected to be the second best team in their conference this year. The Mountain West is an up and coming conference. Probably equal to the remaining four Pac 12 schools.


And still, none of it matters, because those teams do not command media money worth anything. Joining them is relegating Cal to G5 status.
Goobear
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Gobears49 said:

Boise St. is projected to be a top 35 team this year. Fresno St. is probably projected to be a top 45 team this year. Boise St. has not had a losing season since before 1995. Cal would clearly be projected to lose to them this season. Good teams.

I expect San Diego St., with their new stadium, will recruit better than before. And UNLV has turned things around. I think they are projected to be the second best team in their conference this year. The Mountain West is an up and coming conference. Probably equal to the remaining four Pac 12 schools.
Write a $75MM check for each team for 10 years and you may have something. Otherwise this is all nonsense and I will put you on ignore.
golden sloth
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Gobears49 said:

I read a few month ago a comment from an ACC fan that 5,000 or so people from his ACC alma mater were planning to attend a scheduled football game next season at UNLV but only 1,000 or so were planning to a attend a Cal game at Cal the same year. Shows what an attraction Vegas is in drawing fans from around the country.

Going to a game at a location that is fun is a huge draw in getting fans to make it a travel destination when your team plays them. I had a whale of a time visiting Austin when Cal played Texas ten or so years ago. Even made it to four BBQ joints there in one day. Also went to some nice wineries in the foothills about an hour outside of the city. All in all, had a great time there and got to see my Bears win a thriller vs. Texas.

Here's a list of the top travel destinations in the U.S. Las Vegas is clearly #1. Cal fans would love to visit Vegas every few years or so for its fun attributes while watching there Bears play. UNLV plays in the Raiders stadium, another reason to attend a Cal game there. https://wallethub.com/edu/most-fun-cities-in-the-us/23455




I've been to Vegas a few times and honestly, I'm over it. Overpriced everything, stale cigarette smell in your clothes, and gambling sucks.
Gobears49
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Boise St. has not had a losing season since 1995.

Full major college team review. Cal #51, Boise St. #36.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-top-134-team-rankings-2024


Anarchistbear
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CSU Bakersfield instead of Stanford

You've got Merle Haggard, Dwight Yoakum and a lot of one armed ukraninan hookers
MTbear22
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Gobears49 said:

Boise St. has not had a losing season since 1995.

Full major college team review. Cal #51, Boise St. #36.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-top-134-team-rankings-2024




And that STILL doesn't matter. My god man, are you completely incapable of listening to a single person on this thread? Of facing reality?

If you want Cal to be immediately relegated to the G5, just say so. At least that would be honest.
Gobears49
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Please explain and document why teams from the former Mountain West conference could not be invited to the FBS playoffs. That's absurd. There will be twelve or thirteen teams that will be in those playoffs and thus I believe all of the FBS conference champions will get at least one team in. since the number of FBS teams that will be invited into the playoffs will be more than the number of FBS conferences. Thus, all FBS conferences will get at least one team invited into the playoffs. A new Pac 9 conference, if the top teams are really strong, could get two invites.

Please show me where I am wrong on this and not just based upon an opinion that is not at all substantiated. Thanks.
socaltownie
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Gobears49 said:

Please explain and document why teams from the former Mountain West conference could not be invited to the FBS playoffs. That's absurd. There will be twelve or thirteen teams that will be in those playoffs and thus I believe all of the FBS conference champions will get at least one team in. since the number of FBS teams that will be invited into the playoffs will be more than the number of FBS conferences. Thus, all FBS conferences will get at least one team invited into the playoffs. A new Pac 9 conference, if the top teams are really strong, could get two invites.

Please show me where I am wrong on this and not just based upon an opinion that is not at all substantiated. Thanks.
NO!

Now understand we are still (I believe) unclear as to the way the demise of the Pac12 will impact this but the way it works is the top 12 teams ranked, which MUST include the 5 (and now 4) conference champions and then 7 (now 8) at large teams. For for the MWC teams to make it they MUST be in the top 12 as determined by the selection committee (who has a vested interest in limiting the invites to the P4.

No MWC in the top 25. Liberty (undefeated) in at 24

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-02-20/how-12-team-college-football-playoff-will-work-teams-schedule-bids

So for your P9 to grab a spot it would......

1) Have to hold onto the auto bid even in light of strong opposition by both networks and nearly every other team NOT in the Pac9 to move to P4 rather than p5.

2) Have to likely go 12-1 or 13-0. Moreover, it would need to do so on a fluke year. You know who isn't scheduling a possibly 13-0 MWC team - any p4 that would like to get into the playoffs.

3) Generate the kind of "fan" support that would make their exclusion be seen as a blatant overlooking of all that is just. A school like Boise State which has a tradition of New years day bowl upsets and suprises fits that bill. Cal, LMAO.


Actually I will revise
https://gvwire.com/2024/05/03/mountain-west-boss-reveals-theres-talk-of-football-playoffs-for-teams-like-fresno-state/

So yes, there is a sliver of hope provided by the 1 conference champion outside of the P4. One other problem for west coast teams is finding a pathway on the OOC games that provides opponents that will generate eyeballs and attention but which you can win. Midwest and East coast teams have easier time scheduling those (against for example other g5 teams). You Pac-9 would need to likely either provide cash games or travel easy in September to play Troy.

Finally, do not overlook at the the G5 are locked into current distribution while the p4 get ALL the upside of th new contract.
MTbear22
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Gobears49 said:

Please explain and document why teams from the former Mountain West conference could not be invited to the FBS playoffs. That's absurd. There will be twelve or thirteen teams that will be in those playoffs and thus I believe all of the FBS conference champions will get at least one team in.
Holy ****, that is literally not the case. at all, and shows you absolutely do not even remotely understand even the basics of how the new playoff system is set up. For the G5 conferences - FIVE OF THEM, WHICH ARE ALL FBS - only ONE team gets in. ONE.

And you STILL haven't addressed the economic issue, because the conference you propose WILL NOT MAKE MONEY. Being FBS does NOT equate to being a "major conference."
Cal88
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Gobears49 said:

I read a few month ago a comment from an ACC fan that 5,000 or so people from his ACC alma mater were planning to attend a scheduled football game next season at UNLV but only 1,000 or so were planning to a attend a Cal game at Cal the same year. Shows what an attraction Vegas is in drawing fans from around the country.

Going to a game at a location that is fun is a huge draw in getting fans to make it a travel destination when your team plays them. I had a whale of a time visiting Austin when Cal played Texas ten or so years ago. Even made it to four BBQ joints there in one day. Also went to some nice wineries in the foothills about an hour outside of the city. All in all, had a great time there and got to see my Bears win a thriller vs. Texas.

Here's a list of the top travel destinations in the U.S. Las Vegas is clearly #1. Cal fans would love to visit Vegas every few years or so for its fun attributes while watching there Bears play. UNLV plays in the Raiders stadium, another reason to attend a Cal game there. https://wallethub.com/edu/most-fun-cities-in-the-us/23455



ACC cities Miami and Atlanta are #3 and #4 on your list. As well Boston is #44, but IMHO a much more interesting destination for a Fall visit than LV...
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