Cal88 said:
Pretty short writeup. He has us as #9 out of 17, and Clemson, FSU and Miami as tied for #1.
https://www.on3.com/news/phil-steele-projects-conference-standings-acc-finish-order-clemson-florida-state-miami/
They got trampled by a 6-6 Boston College team in their bowl game despite pining for a NY6 slot, they probably need a few seasons like TCU and Utah did after going P5 to be competitive.sycasey said:
I'm also a bit skeptical that SMU won't have a bit of an adjustment period in moving up to a tougher schedule.
sycasey said:
So right in the middle, then. Fair enough.
I'm also a bit skeptical that SMU won't have a bit of an adjustment period in moving up to a tougher schedule.
golden sloth said:sycasey said:
So right in the middle, then. Fair enough.
I'm also a bit skeptical that SMU won't have a bit of an adjustment period in moving up to a tougher schedule.
I am too. I'd have to do some research, but I feel like the teams that join a new conference typically struggle for a few years. Part of it is the lower division teams needing a few years to fill out the roster with higher profile players. But I think a key part is the coaches learning the different teams. The new teams have to learn a full conference schedule of new opponents where the original conference teams just have to learn 1 or 2.
I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.calbear80 said:
Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.
Go Bears!
calbear80 said:
Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.
Go Bears!
Easiest bet I ever made in Vegas was last week picking the over on 6/6.5 winsBasketball Bear said:
I will lay the bet for 6.5 points and hope for a bowl win that will give us 8.
I hope it's Roxy Bernstein, Yogi Roth, and Marshawn. That's a sports show I'd watch. Paws can come on as a guest when he's availablesosheezy said:
Don't think it warrants it's own thread but since this is the most current one with an ACC angle... from Canzano's latest newsletter, the CW will produce a studio show content for Cal & Stanford along with the PAC 2 games that happen in the Bay.
" Here's a bit of news The CW will produce a studio show for the ACC and Pac-12 games that will originate in the Bay Area, per a source in the room. Pac-12 Enterprises is handling the production of that and I'm told we should expect a "familiar face" on the set. The show aims to help drive more audience to The CW games."
If we don't hit 8 or 9 wins minimum then it's a huge red flag and Wilcox is probably out at the end of the season with his buyout now at a reasonable level plus '25 is the perfect easy schedule to give to a first year coach and build momentum. But just looking at the schedule there's no excuses:StillNoStanfurdium said:I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.calbear80 said:
Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.
Go Bears!
If SDSU at home won't be easy we have far bigger problems with our ACC opponents and I'd say 6-6 and 7-a5 would be at risk.
sosheezy said:
Don't think it warrants it's own thread but since this is the most current one with an ACC angle... from Canzano's latest newsletter, the CW will produce a studio show content for Cal & Stanford along with the PAC 2 games that happen in the Bay.
" Here's a bit of news The CW will produce a studio show for the ACC and Pac-12 games that will originate in the Bay Area, per a source in the room. Pac-12 Enterprises is handling the production of that and I'm told we should expect a "familiar face" on the set. The show aims to help drive more audience to The CW games."
I wonder if this means our games will be prioritized by the CW in their ACC selections?sosheezy said:
Don't think it warrants it's own thread but since this is the most current one with an ACC angle... from Canzano's latest newsletter, the CW will produce a studio show content for Cal & Stanford along with the PAC 2 games that happen in the Bay.
" Here's a bit of news The CW will produce a studio show for the ACC and Pac-12 games that will originate in the Bay Area, per a source in the room. Pac-12 Enterprises is handling the production of that and I'm told we should expect a "familiar face" on the set. The show aims to help drive more audience to The CW games."
Basketball Bear said:
A very good conservative call at 7-5. I like it and will be elated at 8. the only way I see 9 as some do is with a bowl win where we end up at 8-5 or 9-4. Happy to be a winning bear again! The only caveat is as a road team since 2017 we are 14-26. Almost twice as many losses as wins on the road. That will put us back at 6-6 if we keep to road record average.
AZ Bear said:
Good analysis, BearlyClad. I agree with most of it and my best guess for our record would be 7-5, but I'm very much hoping for 8-4.
I would question you on one statement statement:
"Pitt and SMU are solid but we have way more talent than SMU..."
I'll admit to not having much firsthand knowledge of SMU, but I'm curious whether your view that we have way more talent than SMU is based on having followed SMU, or if you're just assuming that a school jumping up in class would likely be behind Cal, which was a middling program in a strong Pac-12 in 2023.
Granted, SMU played in an inferior conference last year and face planted in their bowl game against BC. But SMU won a lot of games and finished the season in the top 25 despite their bowl loss. As noted by others, Cal also face planted in their bowl game, so that fact alone does not differentiate the teams.
I would point to the fact that SMU has a bunch of football-crazed mega donors who want to bring SMU back to their former glory. Unlike Cal and Stanford, their move to the ACC is viewed as a huge win for the program (as opposed to a huge bailout in our case), so I would think they have been spending profusely in the portal this offseason, especially coming off what they probably view as a breakout season.
Now my assumptions could be wrong, but I'm curious if your assessment is based on some more detailed knowledge, or just a different take on high level assumptions...
Bearly Clad said:
SMU had a good season heavily based on a good portal class last year. This year they had a big portal drop off, I assume because their donors were busy ponying up for the ACC move and covering the delta in the TV contract. We kept most of our major contributors, added several more, and completely re-worked out DB and WR rooms which were our biggest weaknesses. I just don't see them having nearly the same weapons on either side of the ball as us. We'll see, maybe they go into the ACC and immediately tear it up like Mizzou and TAMU did in the SEC but I think it's much more likely they have major growing pains like Utah did when moving from the G5 to the PAC
calumnus said:Basketball Bear said:
A very good conservative call at 7-5. I like it and will be elated at 8. the only way I see 9 as some do is with a bowl win where we end up at 8-5 or 9-4. Happy to be a winning bear again! The only caveat is as a road team since 2017 we are 14-26. Almost twice as many losses as wins on the road. That will put us back at 6-6 if we keep to road record average.
Wilcox is 2 - 17 in conference road games outside the state of California, including horrible losses to otherwise winless teams. His last such win was 5 years ago.
Football is an emotional game and his teams really seem to need a sizable Cal contingent in the stands to play well whether in CMS, LA, Palo Alto, or Oxford, Mississippi. Otherwise they play flat and can lose to anyone.
Hopefully he does better in the ACC, but if the pattern holds we beat the spread against Auburn and Florida State but Wake, Pitt and SMU are not a sure thing.
StillNoStanfurdium said:calumnus said:Basketball Bear said:
A very good conservative call at 7-5. I like it and will be elated at 8. the only way I see 9 as some do is with a bowl win where we end up at 8-5 or 9-4. Happy to be a winning bear again! The only caveat is as a road team since 2017 we are 14-26. Almost twice as many losses as wins on the road. That will put us back at 6-6 if we keep to road record average.
Wilcox is 2 - 17 in conference road games outside the state of California, including horrible losses to otherwise winless teams. His last such win was 5 years ago.
Football is an emotional game and his teams really seem to need a sizable Cal contingent in the stands to play well whether in CMS, LA, Palo Alto, or Oxford, Mississippi. Otherwise they play flat and can lose to anyone.
Hopefully he does better in the ACC, but if the pattern holds we beat the spread against Auburn and Florida State but Wake, Pitt and SMU are not a sure thing.
We just need to make Wilcox think of all of our ACC games as non-conference road games and that the Pac-12 still exists.
Yes and Vegas odds are now at 5.5 wins paying out -145. I do think we can/will go 7-5 and thus I am betting on the over of 5.5 wins as a solid bet (if there is one).calumnus said:Basketball Bear said:
A very good conservative call at 7-5. I like it and will be elated at 8. the only way I see 9 as some do is with a bowl win where we end up at 8-5 or 9-4. Happy to be a winning bear again! The only caveat is as a road team since 2017 we are 14-26. Almost twice as many losses as wins on the road. That will put us back at 6-6 if we keep to road record average.
Wilcox is 2 - 17 in conference road games outside the state of California, including horrible losses to otherwise winless teams. His last such win was 5 years ago.
Football is an emotional game and his teams really seem to need a sizable Cal contingent in the stands to play well whether in CMS, LA, Palo Alto, or Oxford, Mississippi. Otherwise they play flat and can lose to anyone.
Hopefully he does better in the ACC, but if the pattern holds we beat the spread against Auburn and Florida State but Wake, Pitt and SMU are not a sure thing.
Bearly Clad said:
SMU had a good season heavily based on a good portal class last year. This year they had a big portal drop off, I assume because their donors were busy ponying up for the ACC move and covering the delta in the TV contract. We kept most of our major contributors, added several more, and completely re-worked out DB and WR rooms which were our biggest weaknesses. I just don't see them having nearly the same weapons on either side of the ball as us. We'll see, maybe they go into the ACC and immediately tear it up like Mizzou and TAMU did in the SEC but I think it's much more likely they have major growing pains like Utah did when moving from the G5 to the PAC
4thGenCal said:Yes and Vegas odds are now at 5.5 wins paying out -145. I do think we can/will go 7-5 and thus I am betting on the over of 5.5 wins as a solid bet (if there is one).calumnus said:Basketball Bear said:
A very good conservative call at 7-5. I like it and will be elated at 8. the only way I see 9 as some do is with a bowl win where we end up at 8-5 or 9-4. Happy to be a winning bear again! The only caveat is as a road team since 2017 we are 14-26. Almost twice as many losses as wins on the road. That will put us back at 6-6 if we keep to road record average.
Wilcox is 2 - 17 in conference road games outside the state of California, including horrible losses to otherwise winless teams. His last such win was 5 years ago.
Football is an emotional game and his teams really seem to need a sizable Cal contingent in the stands to play well whether in CMS, LA, Palo Alto, or Oxford, Mississippi. Otherwise they play flat and can lose to anyone.
Hopefully he does better in the ACC, but if the pattern holds we beat the spread against Auburn and Florida State but Wake, Pitt and SMU are not a sure thing.
IMO there is a lot of pressure on Wilcox and staff for those two games in particular. Those are measuring sticks for the Bears' place in the ACC football pecking order. Have to win at least one, even though both are road games, because those are middle of the pack teams at best. Lose both of those games, and the conclusion will be that being consistently good in the ACC requires a different coaching staff.calumnus said:
Not sure how road games at Pitt and Wake figure into that
Either Cal or Stanford will travel the furthest of any ACC team every season. The conference schedule is designed so that the Bears and Cardinal each play three conference games in the eastern time zone every year.GoCal80 said:
Cal will travel the furthest of any ACC team this season
