Odds on the first coach fired from @BetOnline_ag pic.twitter.com/8n8j4ZT4rq

— Barrett Sallee 🇺🇸 (@BarrettSallee) August 19, 2024

Let's hope it's Cristobal right after Cal's 5th game.

Cristobal surprised me not because he's a good coach (he isn't), but that he's a recent hire at the U. Granted he's Cuban/American, but where has he done great and they couldn't have seen that?He's recruiting well, but can he put it together? He seems like a very weak leader. They could be vulnerable at Memorial.

The fact that he has the same odds as the HC of the #2 ranked team in the nation tells you all you need to know about the expectations of football excellence between Cal and tOSU.

Ryan Day being on the list is a little crazy. The dude is 56 - 8, for a winning percentage of .875 and average of 10.5 wins every regular season.

^Probably because Michigan has done even better...

Anyone who bets against Wilcox at only 12-1 is wasting their money. Same would be true for pretty much any other HC for whom bowl eligibility is readily doable and the buyout is high. The only exceptions would be places (like most SEC teams) where the boosters give away millions for coaching buyouts as easily as most folks give away Halloween candy.

Bet against a struggling SEC coach if you like, or bet against a coach whose buyout is under $5 million.

Some of those on that list are there just to attract irrational bets from haters. Ohio State won't go 6-6 or 7-5, and Day won't get fired. Colorado would owe Deion more than $13 million if they canned him after the 2024 season, so their boosters aren't going to make him walk the plank after only two seasons. Cristobal's buyout is reportedly $55 million, and the company of Da U's highest profile booster is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Also: Every donor dollar spent to buy out a HC is a dollar not spent on NIL. How many teams have enough donor money available to fully fund both a buyout and what they need to pay to keep or get the players their coaches want?

Odds of a Wilcox extension after a 7-win bowl season?

bearsandgiants said:

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Odds of a Wilcox extension after a 7-win bowl season?

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Zero, unless Lanning leaves Oregon to take the Florida job. Heh.

With realignment coming again there will be less patience for coaches than in the past. That said Cal has been unbelievably patient so far with Wilcox. But with the collective coming to the rescue and providing the resources for the staff to recruit well in the portal the pressure has increased.

Cal simply has to make the next round of realignment. We have seen a commitment to utilize NIL, add staff, put up billboards and make other improvements to support of the program. This feels to me like a put up or shut up sort of season for Wilcox and staff.

I get there is a buyout, but that pales to what missing in the next realignemnt means. The donors/collective have stepped up and may not be very receptive to staying patient.

bearsandgiants said:

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Odds of a Wilcox extension after a 7-win bowl season?

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Only at Cal would that even be considered possible.

Rushinbear said:

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Cristobal surprised me not because he's a good coach (he isn't), but that he's a recent hire at the U. Granted he's Cuban/American, but where has he done great and they couldn't have seen that?He's recruiting well, but can he put it together? He seems like a very weak leader. They could be vulnerable at Memorial.

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Cristobal is actually quite the logical choice. You mention recruiting well, so I'll get more specific than that.
He has been raking in top oline recruits, he's a supposed oline specialist, and they have what most publications I've seen are deeming a top 5 oline in the country.
If he can't make it happen in year 3 I think Miami cuts ties.
That said I don't think he gets fired mid season if he gets fired.

okaydo said:

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Odds on the first coach fired from @BetOnline_ag pic.twitter.com/8n8j4ZT4rq

— Barrett Sallee 🇺🇸 (@BarrettSallee) August 19, 2024

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Seems like Lincoln Riley should be higher on this list. Maybe top 5.

BYU's Sitake being ahead of Wilcox is notable. He is 61-41 with a single losing record in the last 6 including seasons where he won 11 and 10 games. I do get that with Utah in his conference he will be under increased pressure, and it is customary (even at Cal in the past) to fire an HC after two losing seasons in a row (what they are betting on) but his AD is Tom Holmoe, who does not make rash decisions, unless there is an LDS HC somewhere that BYU covets…

Dumber than a fence post

Could Wilcox be fired after the season? Absolutely

But in what universe will he be the "first" to be fired? Cal is going to fire someone midseason? Hahahahah lol hahah

Is there a similar odds list for Athletic Directors out there?

Yeah I don't understand the Sitake hot seat takes. It's not like BYU is underperforming relative to its history; not unless they've been pouring money into NIL a-la SMU.

ducky23 said:

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Could Wilcox be fired after the season? Absolutely

But in what universe will he be the "first" to be fired? Cal is going to fire someone midseason? Hahahahah lol hahah

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I get the point. But with the transfer portal looming in December teams will fire HCs in season. They have and it will continue. Will Cal? That seems unlikley given the history, but decisive action is needed now more than ever.

The schedule is front loaded this season. Cal could easily be 2-3 after 5 games. That would really ratchet up the pressure.

CNHTH said:

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Rushinbear said:

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Cristobal surprised me not because he's a good coach (he isn't), but that he's a recent hire at the U. Granted he's Cuban/American, but where has he done great and they couldn't have seen that?He's recruiting well, but can he put it together? He seems like a very weak leader. They could be vulnerable at Memorial.

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Cristobal is actually quite the logical choice. You mention recruiting well, so I'll get more specific than that.
He has been raking in top oline recruits, he's a supposed oline specialist, and they have what most publications I've seen are deeming a top 5 oline in the country.
If he can't make it happen in year 3 I think Miami cuts ties.
That said I don't think he gets fired mid season if he gets fired.

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He is uninspiring and has not hit a hr with other ol's he has coached.

calumnus said:

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BYU's Sitake being ahead of Wilcox is notable.

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Sitake has a substantially lower buyout and the LDS Church and its donors are willing to pump money into BYU football.

Having said that, you are right that they are typically slow to make changes, *and* they traditionally hire LDS head coaches for their highest profile sports, which drastically limits their hiring pool. Would they really swap out Sitake for, say, Ken Niumatalolo? The odds of that are probably longer than what this sportsbook is offering.

golden sloth said:

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Ryan Day being on the list is a little crazy. The dude is 56 - 8, for a winning percentage of .875 and average of 10.5 wins every regular season.

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He has consistently the best recruiting classes and the biggest NIL bag in the country. He took over a national championship winning program from Slimeball. But he has not done well in the playoffs and he has lost consistently to Michigan. Last time they had a coach like this (John Cooper), he got fired and Tressel took over and won a NC two years later. From 1947 to 2010, every single coach was inducted into the college football hall of fame. I wonder if Urban Meyer will be inducted...but the point being that coming in second for now - but he was in the conference championship game three times and lost twice - both to Michigan. He has three out of 5 post-season losses. Losing like that puts a bad taste in people's mouth - especially when you are paying top dollar to the players.

Oski87 said:

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golden sloth said:

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Ryan Day being on the list is a little crazy. The dude is 56 - 8, for a winning percentage of .875 and average of 10.5 wins every regular season.

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He has consistently the best recruiting classes and the biggest NIL bag in the country. He took over a national championship winning program from Slimeball. But he has not done well in the playoffs and he has lost consistently to Michigan. Last time they had a coach like this (John Cooper), he got fired and Tressel took over and won a NC two years later. From 1947 to 2010, every single coach was inducted into the college football hall of fame. I wonder if Urban Meyer will be inducted...but the point being that coming in second for now - but he was in the conference championship game three times and lost twice - both to Michigan. He has three out of 5 post-season losses. Losing like that puts a bad taste in people's mouth - especially when you are paying top dollar to the players.

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If that is their definition of losing, then they are dumb and delusional.

bearsandgiants said:

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Odds of a Wilcox extension after a 7-win bowl season?

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After an 8-win season, that is a foregone conclusion.

golden sloth said:

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Oski87 said:

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golden sloth said:

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Ryan Day being on the list is a little crazy. The dude is 56 - 8, for a winning percentage of .875 and average of 10.5 wins every regular season.

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He has consistently the best recruiting classes and the biggest NIL bag in the country. He took over a national championship winning program from Slimeball. But he has not done well in the playoffs and he has lost consistently to Michigan. Last time they had a coach like this (John Cooper), he got fired and Tressel took over and won a NC two years later. From 1947 to 2010, every single coach was inducted into the college football hall of fame. I wonder if Urban Meyer will be inducted...but the point being that coming in second for now - but he was in the conference championship game three times and lost twice - both to Michigan. He has three out of 5 post-season losses. Losing like that puts a bad taste in people's mouth - especially when you are paying top dollar to the players.

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they are dumb and delusional.

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FIFY. The conditional was unnecessary.