The 2024 Cal and ACC Football Preview

The 2024 Season:

We’ve made a few assumptions that provide the cornerstones of our projections

• The ACC opponents that Cal will face in 2024 are less talented than the Pac-12 opponents the Bears faced in 2023
• Cal has a deeper and more talented roster in 2024 than they have had for at least the last four seasons and arguably at any time in the Wilcox era
• Coaching continues to be an open question.  Does Cal play with the confident edginess that consistent winning programs have?  Have the Bears optimized their staff to maximize their chances of winning?  Despite an overall strong transfer portal class in ‘24, did the team do enough on the lines of scrimmage (OL, DT and edge)?  

Cal’s Regular Season Record = 8-4 (5-3 in the ACC)

Eight wins is not only what we believe will occur, it’s more importantly what has to occur for the Bears to generate the needed momentum with fans, donors and the public at large.  As a result of the accelerating dynamism in college athletics and college football in particular, there is a litmus test that the UC’s flagship University has to pass or the Bears will have a very different athletic program and relationship to its students and alumni.  This is Justin Wilcox’s eighth season and there is simply no more room for mediocrity.  Momentum has to be generated and it has to happen quickly.

This team has the pieces in place to achieve eight wins.  There is experience, a number of NFL-level players and for the first time in the Wilcox era, meaningful depth. The offense appears ready to take another full step forward off the positive strides of the 2023 season and the defense has an improved secondary and enough talent in the front 6 to regain some of the luster it’s lost the past two years.  Perhaps most importantly, given the schedule includes more than a few teams with similar levels of offensive and defensive talent, the special teams seem poised for a big leap.

The ceiling may be capped by the fact that Cal does not look like a top-quartile Power 4 program along either of the lines of scrimmage.  If the play there is worse than projected, eight wins may be a reach.  If the Bears find a pass rush and the offensive line improves for the second consecutive year, perhaps there are more wins to be had

ACC Predicted Order of Finish

1.)  Miami:  They are loaded everywhere but the secondary and QB Cam Ward is a dynamic passer of the ball. There will be questions about the coaching staff and team chemistry and the Hurricanes have the highest beta of any team in the ACC but in the end, talent will tell

2.)  NC State:  HC Dave Doeren can coach defense and his teams play a physical and tough style that keeps them in games. While their skill talent depth is a question mark, if they can stay healthy, they have an elite WR, another high-level starting wideout, a very good TE and a solid RB to go along with talented transfer QB Grayson McCall

3.) Florida State:  The Seminoles are better than they looked in their opener.  They have a good RB room, there’s talent on the OL that requires some gelling and their defense will likely improve to be one of the ACC’s best. There isn’t enough talent at QB, edge rusher or WR for this to be an elite team.

4.) Clemson:  Good coaching, a strong culture and what should be well above average offensive and defensive lines should result in the TIgers having a bounce-back year.  A lot is dependent on QB Cade Klubnik and he will need to be special given the lack of elite WR talent.

5.). Virginia Tech: The Hokies return a ton from a solid 2023 squad, and have a favorable schedule.  Watch out for QB Kyron Drones as he’s a special athlete.  Finishing this high would mean they are overperforming their overall talent level which feels very possible.

6.) California: The Bears are picked by most prognosticators to be at best a middle-of-the-pack team, largely based on past performance. Will the big injection of talent and greater depth than usual on both sides of the ball be enough to lift the Bears to a better bowl game and higher conference finish than projected by most? We say yes.

7.) Georgia Tech:  Their offensive line finished 2023 playing at a high level and their debut against FSU showed they may be the ACC's best unit. The defense is still a question mark and depth of talent and a brutal schedule likely limit their upside.

8.) Louisville:  The Cardinals played lights-out defense in 2023 on their way to the ACC title game.  They’ve lost a lot on both sides of the ball, have uncertainty at QB and WR yet they on paper, did well in the portal.  2024 feels like a half-step back.

9.) SMU:  The media darling Mustangs have some really capable skill talent and HC Rhett Lashlee is viewed as a rising star. They buttressed both the OL and DL via the portal yet iffy QB play and a big step up in competition likely put them in the middle of the pack in 2024.

10.) North Carolina:  The Tar Heels have a history of over-performing when they are predicted to struggle.  This year, it’s the lack of clarity at QB, an iffy defense and more youthful than experienced depth that has folks skeptical. RB Omari Hampton is a stud, but will the offensive line and passing game support him?

11.) Syracuse:  A program that got to a bowl game in 2023 has a dynamic new coach, Ohio State’s former starting QB and a very favorable schedule will allow the Orange to not fall to the bottom of the ACC despite a lack of WR and defensive talent.  

12.) Duke:  The loss of Mike Elko is a huge blow to the program.  Perhaps an equally tough pill to swallow are the losses the Blue Devils suffered via graduation and the transfer portal.  QB Maalik Murphy is a promising piece and there is some younger offensive talent.  It’s just not going to be enough.

13.) Pitt:  This a proud program with a recent history of success. It’s also the poster child of how the transfer portal can destroy a program on the rise’s potential. There are big questions at QB and throughout the offense.  The defense may have enough young talent to be rebuilt despite big losses to the NFL and portal.

14.) Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons are not a bad team. There’s a decent smattering of talent and returning experience.  Incoming QB Hank Bachmeier is not the savior and the defense is at best mediocre

15.) Stanford:  HC Troy Taylor has a rebuilding job on his hands and at least thus far hasn’t had the benefit of the transfer portal to inject the necessary depth of talent to recapture their former glory.  They do have a smattering of top-tier talent on both sides of the ball and Taylor may be enough of a wizard to make their QB room at least decent.  

16.)  Boston College:  There’s a lot of good feeling around Bill O’Brien’s return to college football in Boston. He inherits a dynamic playmaker at QB in Thomas Castellanos and likely O’Brien works his magic on the offensive side of the ball.  It’s the defense that appears to be well below average and the ultimate limiter to the Eagles' 2024 potential.

17.)  Virginia:   The Cavaliers are a program best described as a dead man walking.  HC Tony Elliott is the odds-on favorite to be the first P4 head man to be fired this season.  There simply isn’t enough talent or depth to right the ship.