This excerpt from an ESPN article today partially addresses that question: there is not much separation between teams beyond the top 5.
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Nobody knows anything (mostly)Here's the dirtiest secret of the college football rankings: There aren't that many teams that truly stand out. And as a minor variant to this point, each conference might have a different tally of truly good teams, but comparing overall conferences is a fool's errand.
As one Power 5 coach told ESPN, "Every year there are five or six great teams, five or six more great-but-flawed teams, and the next 30 are all about the same."
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/mondaytakeaways090924/2024-week-2-college-football-takeawaysWant proof?
Through two weeks, here's how the Power 5 (which, for the purposes of discussion, will include Washington State, Oregon State and Notre Dame) conferences stack up in nonconference games against other Power 5 teams.
ACC: 5-5
Big 12: 5-6
Big Ten: 4-4
Notre Dame: 1-0
Pac-12: 1-0
SEC: 5-6
Of those 21 games, only seven were decided by more than a touchdown, and five of those were delivered by one of the small cadre of teams that probably are in the elite (or near-elite) tier of the sport.
We can feel pretty good about Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Miami, for example, but
Illinois' six-point win over Kansas,
Duke's double-overtime win over
Northwestern and Arizona State's narrow escape from Mississippi State's late comeback attempt probably say nothing about any conference and little about the teams themselves beyond noting they're pretty evenly matched -- one squad just made a few more plays at critical moments than the other.
As the season progresses, we'll get more data points that help paint a clearer picture of college football's hierarchy, and a couple teams we might not have considered elite today will emerge (and a couple others might tumble from the top tiers). The debates will get better the further we get into the season. But it's also important to distinguish what matters from the noise, and as much fun as it might be to laugh at Auburn or the SEC's misfortune in Week 2, the truth is, a seven-point loss to Cal probably doesn't say much at all about who deserves a space in the 12-team playoff by year's end. --
David Hale"