calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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ducky23 said:

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Pitt is EXACTLY in the position we are typically in and where we always fall flat on our faces (undefeated record after a soft early schedule, early ranking in 20's).

I think it's very possible Pitt lays an egg.

We are more talented, I have very little doubt of this. My only concern is whether Wilcox can actually win a close game. (Auburn was not a close game - if you get 5 turnovers that should be a double digit win).

---

I feel like the narrative that Wilcox doesn't win close games is a bit off kilter. He wins close games (Washington 18 and 19, Oregon, USC '18) and loses close games (several points in the past).

I think he just plays close games and loses more than wins.

---

He won close games early in his tenure, but hasn't done so this side of COVID. Haven't seen any signs of it changing. I would argue that we were dominant against Miami because of good luck, rather than losing because of bad luck. No team can sustain such high yards per play as we did in the first three quarters

---

I'm not sure I'd say it's necessarily luck. Miami's D is high risk and high reward by design.

Basically their philosophy is that their offense is so good, they want to maximize how many plays they can run per game. The idea is that the more total plays run, the better for them because, over time, their talent will win out (proved to be right).

What they don't want is the other team grinding out drives and running clock. They want 3 and outs, and if they give up a few big plays (or quick scores) along the way, fine…their offense can make up for it.

It's exactly the type of D I was advocating for during the Dykes era.

What you absolutely cannot do against an overly aggressive D is play it safe. Cause they're going to eat you alive.

---

It's not just that. Teams actively plan around taking Ott out of the game. Its not JUST bad play by the o-line. They stack the box bring the safety close in and crash the hand off as best they can. They want to force you to beat them through the air.

The downside of stacking the box and aggressively pursuing the hand off is that you leave over the top open, and with your safeties sucked in close to the line you leave yourself vulnerable to big plays. This also forces a lot of 1:1 matchups where tightends size can really exploit smaller db's with no safety help.

Cal just has done a **** job of exploiting this. The solution is to get these chunk plays repeatedly until the safeties are forced to retreat backwards. Punish the dline/linebackers for overpursuing and they will back off and be more tentative, then the run game will open up. Instead of waiting for them to adjust we seem to call our plays in a vacuum, ignoring the defense in front of us and playing against an idealized one instead.

These things don't happen in a vacuum.

---

I've been saying this exact same thing over and over in other threads. That's why it's unfair to put all the blame on the oline. And it's why you cannot cannot cannot go vanilla.

I feel like Wilcox learned a partial lesson from the FSU game that this is how defenses are playing us, so you have to be aggressive.

Now the trick is for him to realize you have to commit 100% and do this the entire game.

He's a slow learner our Wilcox is.

---

Its not even about doing the same thing the entire game. Its about taking what the defense is giving you every single play.

Being able to impose your will on the opposition and do whatever YOU want is a GREAT long term goal, but REQUIRES superior athletes AND superior execution to do successfully. That's just not where we are now as a team...and frankly with NIL and the current transfer rules we may never get there. We are going to get to more parity, not less.

---

I disagree with that last part. This weekend was full of upsets. Vanderbilt beat #7 Alabama 40-35. Does anyone think Vanderbilt has "superior" athletes to Alabama? No, but they had a better game plan. Misdirection, they had a 23-14 lead going into the half but did not let up.

And NIL has been a godsend for Cal. Cal has had top 20 Transfer Portal rankings two years in a row.

Here are our HS recruiting rankings under Wilcox:

2017 #70
2018 #42
2019 #42
2020 #39
2021 #29
2022 #59
2023 #79
2024 #55

Again our last two Portal classes have been #18 and #17.
Sebasta and Cal Legends are killing it and providing Wilcox with talent. We have a large, wealthy alumni base to draw from. The biggest impediment is having coaches that squander talent.

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Can you do the same for FSU and Miami, the only two teams to beat us this year? How does their recruiting stack up to ours?

calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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ducky23 said:

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Pitt is EXACTLY in the position we are typically in and where we always fall flat on our faces (undefeated record after a soft early schedule, early ranking in 20's).

I think it's very possible Pitt lays an egg.

We are more talented, I have very little doubt of this. My only concern is whether Wilcox can actually win a close game. (Auburn was not a close game - if you get 5 turnovers that should be a double digit win).

---

I feel like the narrative that Wilcox doesn't win close games is a bit off kilter. He wins close games (Washington 18 and 19, Oregon, USC '18) and loses close games (several points in the past).

I think he just plays close games and loses more than wins.

---

He won close games early in his tenure, but hasn't done so this side of COVID. Haven't seen any signs of it changing. I would argue that we were dominant against Miami because of good luck, rather than losing because of bad luck. No team can sustain such high yards per play as we did in the first three quarters

---

I'm not sure I'd say it's necessarily luck. Miami's D is high risk and high reward by design.

Basically their philosophy is that their offense is so good, they want to maximize how many plays they can run per game. The idea is that the more total plays run, the better for them because, over time, their talent will win out (proved to be right).

What they don't want is the other team grinding out drives and running clock. They want 3 and outs, and if they give up a few big plays (or quick scores) along the way, fine…their offense can make up for it.

It's exactly the type of D I was advocating for during the Dykes era.

What you absolutely cannot do against an overly aggressive D is play it safe. Cause they're going to eat you alive.

---

It's not just that. Teams actively plan around taking Ott out of the game. Its not JUST bad play by the o-line. They stack the box bring the safety close in and crash the hand off as best they can. They want to force you to beat them through the air.

The downside of stacking the box and aggressively pursuing the hand off is that you leave over the top open, and with your safeties sucked in close to the line you leave yourself vulnerable to big plays. This also forces a lot of 1:1 matchups where tightends size can really exploit smaller db's with no safety help.

Cal just has done a **** job of exploiting this. The solution is to get these chunk plays repeatedly until the safeties are forced to retreat backwards. Punish the dline/linebackers for overpursuing and they will back off and be more tentative, then the run game will open up. Instead of waiting for them to adjust we seem to call our plays in a vacuum, ignoring the defense in front of us and playing against an idealized one instead.

These things don't happen in a vacuum.

---

I've been saying this exact same thing over and over in other threads. That's why it's unfair to put all the blame on the oline. And it's why you cannot cannot cannot go vanilla.

I feel like Wilcox learned a partial lesson from the FSU game that this is how defenses are playing us, so you have to be aggressive.

Now the trick is for him to realize you have to commit 100% and do this the entire game.

He's a slow learner our Wilcox is.

---

Its not even about doing the same thing the entire game. Its about taking what the defense is giving you every single play.

Being able to impose your will on the opposition and do whatever YOU want is a GREAT long term goal, but REQUIRES superior athletes AND superior execution to do successfully. That's just not where we are now as a team...and frankly with NIL and the current transfer rules we may never get there. We are going to get to more parity, not less.

---

I disagree with that last part. This weekend was full of upsets. Vanderbilt beat #7 Alabama 40-35. Does anyone think Vanderbilt has "superior" athletes to Alabama? No, but they had a better game plan. Misdirection, they had a 23-14 lead going into the half but did not let up.

And NIL has been a godsend for Cal. Cal has had top 20 Transfer Portal rankings two years in a row.

Here are our HS recruiting rankings under Wilcox:

2017 #70
2018 #42
2019 #42
2020 #39
2021 #29
2022 #59
2023 #79
2024 #55

Again our last two Portal classes have been #18 and #17.
Sebasta and Cal Legends are killing it and providing Wilcox with talent. We have a large, wealthy alumni base to draw from. The biggest impediment is having coaches that squander talent.

---

What does that have to do with imposing your will? Imposing your will on an opponent means that they sell out to stop the run but you run it up the gut on them consistently anyways, which is what cal was able to do vs San Diego State and UC Davis late in the games. That isn't what Vanderbuilt did to Alabama and it isn't how we were going to beat Florida State OR Miami.

Teams sell out to stop the run against us, so we have to use that to our advantage. That's how we built the lead vs Miami. Going away from it is how we let them back in it.

---

I agree with that part 100% What I disagree with is that we are at a huge talent disadvantage because of NIL. I think NIL in our current form is an advantage for us.

There are no top P4 teams that I am aware of that just try to line up vanilla and impose their will running up the middle repeatedly on other P4 teams. The top teams are all fairly creative on offense because they need to be to beat other top P4 teams. I think we have shown in the Miami game that we have the talent to beat teams like Miami. I don't know that our OL is terrible (other than false starts against FSU) it was good enough to score 38 points through 3 quarters against Miami when we used a little misdirection and emphasized our strengths. It is obviously not overwhelmingly great enough to run on first and second downs and then drop straight back on third and long. Nowhere close.

So we are in agreement, we need creative playcalling with misdirection to win. Where we disagree is I think Sebasta and the Cal Legends have given Wilcox a lot of talent. He and his staff are just not using it well.

---

"It is obviously not overwhelmingly great enough to run on first and second downs and then drop straight back on third and long. Nowhere close."

Good thing we didn't do that in the 4th! We passed to Ott on first down but the wide pass was dropped.

82gradDLSdad said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Coaching test of the season Saturday. If Cal shows up and rips Pitt, we will know we have the staff and the players we need. Resilient. Tough. Committed. So much of life is mental. Everyone should stop whining and kick the s*** out of Pitt. Fingers crossed.

---

Wilcox teams don't RIP anyone.

Start of game: can we win running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue until game close. No, take more chances.
After halftime: are we up? Yes, can we run out the clock running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue. If game gets close ratchet up and try to pull out the win.

Something like that.

My favorite (not really, I was sort of pissed) part of the last game: end of 3rd quarter, our players were all huddled around coaches and giddy...jumping around like little kids almost celebrating a win. Miami d was already out on the field and d-line was on the ball. One d tackle was nodding his head toward Cal saying, "come on, let's bring it". I could almost see him saying, "we may be losing but I'm still going to kick your ass!!!". EXACTLY, the attitude you want to see your entire team have including your coaches ALL GAME LONG!!!. I knew we were in for trouble. No great for shadowing, we're Cal football, under Wilcox. It's how we play.

---

I agree and I don't entirely buy the argument that our defense was just too tired. Rewatching the game again, there were so many blown assignments on both the OL and defense in the 4th quarter. I think the team got scared and started to make mistakes, which was compounded by Miami scoring in less and less time every drive.

MrGPAC said:

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calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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ducky23 said:

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Pitt is EXACTLY in the position we are typically in and where we always fall flat on our faces (undefeated record after a soft early schedule, early ranking in 20's).

I think it's very possible Pitt lays an egg.

We are more talented, I have very little doubt of this. My only concern is whether Wilcox can actually win a close game. (Auburn was not a close game - if you get 5 turnovers that should be a double digit win).

---

I feel like the narrative that Wilcox doesn't win close games is a bit off kilter. He wins close games (Washington 18 and 19, Oregon, USC '18) and loses close games (several points in the past).

I think he just plays close games and loses more than wins.

---

He won close games early in his tenure, but hasn't done so this side of COVID. Haven't seen any signs of it changing. I would argue that we were dominant against Miami because of good luck, rather than losing because of bad luck. No team can sustain such high yards per play as we did in the first three quarters

---

I'm not sure I'd say it's necessarily luck. Miami's D is high risk and high reward by design.

Basically their philosophy is that their offense is so good, they want to maximize how many plays they can run per game. The idea is that the more total plays run, the better for them because, over time, their talent will win out (proved to be right).

What they don't want is the other team grinding out drives and running clock. They want 3 and outs, and if they give up a few big plays (or quick scores) along the way, fine…their offense can make up for it.

It's exactly the type of D I was advocating for during the Dykes era.

What you absolutely cannot do against an overly aggressive D is play it safe. Cause they're going to eat you alive.

---

It's not just that. Teams actively plan around taking Ott out of the game. Its not JUST bad play by the o-line. They stack the box bring the safety close in and crash the hand off as best they can. They want to force you to beat them through the air.

The downside of stacking the box and aggressively pursuing the hand off is that you leave over the top open, and with your safeties sucked in close to the line you leave yourself vulnerable to big plays. This also forces a lot of 1:1 matchups where tightends size can really exploit smaller db's with no safety help.

Cal just has done a **** job of exploiting this. The solution is to get these chunk plays repeatedly until the safeties are forced to retreat backwards. Punish the dline/linebackers for overpursuing and they will back off and be more tentative, then the run game will open up. Instead of waiting for them to adjust we seem to call our plays in a vacuum, ignoring the defense in front of us and playing against an idealized one instead.

These things don't happen in a vacuum.

---

I've been saying this exact same thing over and over in other threads. That's why it's unfair to put all the blame on the oline. And it's why you cannot cannot cannot go vanilla.

I feel like Wilcox learned a partial lesson from the FSU game that this is how defenses are playing us, so you have to be aggressive.

Now the trick is for him to realize you have to commit 100% and do this the entire game.

He's a slow learner our Wilcox is.

---

Its not even about doing the same thing the entire game. Its about taking what the defense is giving you every single play.

Being able to impose your will on the opposition and do whatever YOU want is a GREAT long term goal, but REQUIRES superior athletes AND superior execution to do successfully. That's just not where we are now as a team...and frankly with NIL and the current transfer rules we may never get there. We are going to get to more parity, not less.

---

I disagree with that last part. This weekend was full of upsets. Vanderbilt beat #7 Alabama 40-35. Does anyone think Vanderbilt has "superior" athletes to Alabama? No, but they had a better game plan. Misdirection, they had a 23-14 lead going into the half but did not let up.

And NIL has been a godsend for Cal. Cal has had top 20 Transfer Portal rankings two years in a row.

Here are our HS recruiting rankings under Wilcox:

2017 #70
2018 #42
2019 #42
2020 #39
2021 #29
2022 #59
2023 #79
2024 #55

Again our last two Portal classes have been #18 and #17.
Sebasta and Cal Legends are killing it and providing Wilcox with talent. We have a large, wealthy alumni base to draw from. The biggest impediment is having coaches that squander talent.

---

What does that have to do with imposing your will? Imposing your will on an opponent means that they sell out to stop the run but you run it up the gut on them consistently anyways, which is what cal was able to do vs San Diego State and UC Davis late in the games. That isn't what Vanderbuilt did to Alabama and it isn't how we were going to beat Florida State OR Miami.

Teams sell out to stop the run against us, so we have to use that to our advantage. That's how we built the lead vs Miami. Going away from it is how we let them back in it.

---

I agree with that part 100% What I disagree with is that we are at a huge talent disadvantage because of NIL. I think NIL in our current form is an advantage for us.

There are no top P4 teams that I am aware of that just try to line up vanilla and impose their will running up the middle repeatedly on other P4 teams. The top teams are all fairly creative on offense because they need to be to beat other top P4 teams. I think we have shown in the Miami game that we have the talent to beat teams like Miami. I don't know that our OL is terrible (other than false starts against FSU) it was good enough to score 38 points through 3 quarters against Miami when we used a little misdirection and emphasized our strengths. It is obviously not overwhelmingly great enough to run on first and second downs and then drop straight back on third and long. Nowhere close.

So we are in agreement, we need creative playcalling with misdirection to win. Where we disagree is I think Sebasta and the Cal Legends have given Wilcox a lot of talent. He and his staff are just not using it well.

---

Thank you for the clarification!

My point was the days of yesteryear where a team like USC or Nebraska could just line up their athletes vs yours and impose their will is gone, because between transfer rules and nil talent is going to be more evenly distributed than it was back then.

As it stands now I agree with you and don't believe that nil puts us at a large disadvantage. We are playing the nil and transfer game extremely well currently and are using it to our advantage.

We just need the head coach to give up on the dream of an offense that can just run it up the middle constantly even when the defense is selling out to stop it. Make the defense adjust by taking advantage of what they give you and then the running lanes will open up.....not before.

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100%

DoubtfulBear said:

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82gradDLSdad said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Coaching test of the season Saturday. If Cal shows up and rips Pitt, we will know we have the staff and the players we need. Resilient. Tough. Committed. So much of life is mental. Everyone should stop whining and kick the s*** out of Pitt. Fingers crossed.

---

Wilcox teams don't RIP anyone.

Start of game: can we win running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue until game close. No, take more chances.
After halftime: are we up? Yes, can we run out the clock running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue. If game gets close ratchet up and try to pull out the win.

Something like that.

My favorite (not really, I was sort of pissed) part of the last game: end of 3rd quarter, our players were all huddled around coaches and giddy...jumping around like little kids almost celebrating a win. Miami d was already out on the field and d-line was on the ball. One d tackle was nodding his head toward Cal saying, "come on, let's bring it". I could almost see him saying, "we may be losing but I'm still going to kick your ass!!!". EXACTLY, the attitude you want to see your entire team have including your coaches ALL GAME LONG!!!. I knew we were in for trouble. No great for shadowing, we're Cal football, under Wilcox. It's how we play.

---

I agree and I don't entirely buy the argument that our defense was just too tired. Rewatching the game again, there were so many blown assignments on both the OL and defense in the 4th quarter. I think the team got scared and started to make mistakes, which was compounded by Miami scoring in less and less time every drive.

---

We stopped being the aggressor and turned turtle. We tried to run out the clock with an entire quarter left and a 20 pt lead against the #2 offense in the country and a Heisman candidate at QB. We stoped blitzing that QB and with time he found holes in our D and scored the 21 unanswered points they needed to win.

PtownBear1 said:

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I used to plan my days around Cal football games, but for the Pitt game, I think I'm going to start a new habit of only watching the last 5 to 10 minutes. Seems so futile watching the rest of a Wilcox coached game.

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Why torture yourself? Go watch some kids play an AYSO game where everyone wins!

calumnus said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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82gradDLSdad said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Coaching test of the season Saturday. If Cal shows up and rips Pitt, we will know we have the staff and the players we need. Resilient. Tough. Committed. So much of life is mental. Everyone should stop whining and kick the s*** out of Pitt. Fingers crossed.

---

Wilcox teams don't RIP anyone.

Start of game: can we win running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue until game close. No, take more chances.
After halftime: are we up? Yes, can we run out the clock running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue. If game gets close ratchet up and try to pull out the win.

Something like that.

My favorite (not really, I was sort of pissed) part of the last game: end of 3rd quarter, our players were all huddled around coaches and giddy...jumping around like little kids almost celebrating a win. Miami d was already out on the field and d-line was on the ball. One d tackle was nodding his head toward Cal saying, "come on, let's bring it". I could almost see him saying, "we may be losing but I'm still going to kick your ass!!!". EXACTLY, the attitude you want to see your entire team have including your coaches ALL GAME LONG!!!. I knew we were in for trouble. No great for shadowing, we're Cal football, under Wilcox. It's how we play.

---

I agree and I don't entirely buy the argument that our defense was just too tired. Rewatching the game again, there were so many blown assignments on both the OL and defense in the 4th quarter. I think the team got scared and started to make mistakes, which was compounded by Miami scoring in less and less time every drive.

---

We stopped being the aggressor and turned turtle. We tried to run out the clock with an entire quarter left and a 20 pt lead against the #2 offense in the country and a Heisman candidate at QB. We stoped blitzing that QB and with time he found holes in our D and scored the 21 unanswered points they needed to win.

---

Ward made several key throws on the run while avoiding the pass rush, including one where he might have been over the line of scrimmage. The defense wasn't totally conservative.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

JeffMcd said:

---

Coaching test of the season Saturday. If Cal shows up and rips Pitt, we will know we have the staff and the players we need. Resilient. Tough. Committed. So much of life is mental. Everyone should stop whining and kick the s*** out of Pitt. Fingers crossed.

---

Wilcox teams don't RIP anyone.

Start of game: can we win running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue until game close. No, take more chances.
After halftime: are we up? Yes, can we run out the clock running up the middle and playing zone? Yes, continue. If game gets close ratchet up and try to pull out the win.

Something like that.

My favorite (not really, I was sort of pissed) part of the last game: end of 3rd quarter, our players were all huddled around coaches and giddy...jumping around like little kids almost celebrating a win. Miami d was already out on the field and d-line was on the ball. One d tackle was nodding his head toward Cal saying, "come on, let's bring it". I could almost see him saying, "we may be losing but I'm still going to kick your ass!!!". EXACTLY, the attitude you want to see your entire team have including your coaches ALL GAME LONG!!!. I knew we were in for trouble. No great for shadowing, we're Cal football, under Wilcox. It's how we play.

---

Wow, You nailed it. It amazes me that after watching this pattern from Wilcox teams for 8 years and over 80 games through 4 OCs, people are actually denying that is what happened yet again on Saturday. They actually try to argue that a single incomplete pass to Ott in the backfield and a bunch of third and long sacks proves we didn't stop trying to pass downfield in the 4th quarter.

Pitt fan here. I came to read up on cal. Pitt was actually suppose to be really good last year. Had a lot of the ACC championship team still around and QB transfer from Boston College. The problem was they lost their OC from when they won the ACC championship and the one they brought in for 2022 and 2023 was terrible. That led to a lot of guys transferring out and most Pitt fans expected the team to be terrible. However, Pat Narduzzi realized they needed a big change and went out and hired a young offensive coordinator (kade bell) who had the number one offense in the FCS last year. Kade Bell brought a few players with him, most importantly being their RB Desmond Reid. The combination of Bell, Reid, and the QB Holstein has transformed them from one of the worst offenses in the FBS to one of the best. Holstein is the real difference maker from last year, he is the real deal. They still have a lot of weak spots (mostly along the OL and DL) but the offense moves so fast that most of the O-line weaknesses have been hidden.

The D is still a work in progress, it's probably Pitt's worst defense of the Pat Narduzzi era. They love to play man coverage with 8 guys in the box. Their corners will be on an island all day and are definitely susceptible. Fortunately for Pitt their offense has been able to keep them in their games.

I predict we'll be up by double digits at some point and end up losing. Thankfully, I won't be watching.

CalConor said:

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I predict we'll be up by double digits at some point and end up losing. Thankfully, I won't be watching.

---

bye-bye

After how draining the last couple of weeks must have been for the team, I feel like this game on the road against a good opponent has blowout loss written all over it. I'm envisioning being down big early, and then clawing back late in the game to make it look a little more respectable.

Obviously, hope I'm wrong, but was correct two weeks ago in calling a loss due to missed field goals. And was somewhat correct last week in saying we'd lead at the half but Miami would pull away in the second half.

Ctrez said:

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Pitt fan here. I came to read up on cal. Pitt was actually suppose to be really good last year. Had a lot of the ACC championship team still around and QB transfer from Boston College. The problem was they lost their OC from when they won the ACC championship and the one they brought in for 2022 and 2023 was terrible. That led to a lot of guys transferring out and most Pitt fans expected the team to be terrible. However, Pat Narduzzi realized they needed a big change and went out and hired a young offensive coordinator (kade bell) who had the number one offense in the FCS last year. Kade Bell brought a few players with him, most importantly being their RB Desmond Reid. The combination of Bell, Reid, and the QB Holstein has transformed them from one of the worst offenses in the FBS to one of the best. Holstein is the real difference maker from last year, he is the real deal. They still have a lot of weak spots (mostly along the OL and DL) but the offense moves so fast that most of the O-line weaknesses have been hidden.

The D is still a work in progress, it's probably Pitt's worst defense of the Pat Narduzzi era. They love to play man coverage with 8 guys in the box. Their corners will be on an island all day and are definitely susceptible. Fortunately for Pitt their offense has been able to keep them in their games.

---

Thanks for visiting. Yes, many Cal fans (and apparently our head coach) just do not understand the huge difference that a good OC makes and that good play calling can move the ball and score points despite a bad OL. An OC can be the difference between an ACC Championship and being terrible as PItt has proven, so congratulations on getting a good OC again but I won't wish you good luck until after Saturday.

Pitt 31, Cal 21

We get out to an early lead and then fade late.

Man, all these great replies, commentary, ideas and suggestions tell me the ENTIRE AD staff should be fired and replaced with you or die-hard Cal fans just like you.

This situation shows exactly why public bureaucrats get the criticism they oftentimes so justly deserve. Ineffective, milquetoast bureaucrats who shuffle paper with the best of them and deposit those fat paychecks so expeditiously!

Jesus, we're totally blowing this opportunity.

And as I've posted before, it's not like football is an optional distraction for the Cal campus. Not just a frivolous extra-curricular activity that could be dropped and not missed. There's an ever-present impending need. But before I get to that...

We have just proven that our fan base is OUT THERE and primed for success. The demand exists. Over a hundred years of tradition seems to have relevance and importance. But when you fail to take that next step and be a perennial also-ran, your fan base is kinda hard to perceive. Well, it's OBVIOUSLY there and chomping at the bit.

And with the exodus of our East Bay traitorous pro teams (eff them and their endless sucking the government teat for subsidy), the time is RIPE to exploit. You have hundreds of thousands of sports fans looking around for a new team. Well, here we are, right in everyone's back yard. Come on Cal, STEP UP TO THE PLATE!

And what exactly is it that makes it OBLIGATORY???

A HALF A BILLION DOLLAR STADIUM RENOVATION!

Sorry Cal admin, you HAVE NO CHOICE! You must go ALL IN. You cannot waver. You cannot equivocate. You MUST STRIKE WHILE THE IRON'S HOT! (And all that mumbo-jumbo.)

So when the staff drops the ball, when your marketing director is absent on social media, when your Athletic Director is MIA, it's time to...

CLEAN HOUSE, CAL!

Top to bottom. Get rid of the ineffective dead weight. Toss those useless figure heads! Hire young and hungry folks looking for a great opportunity. Pick up those with the right experience and track records to get it done. Go all in and if it works, then your efforts were a success. Football can thrive. A championship CAN be on the horizon. Cal can restore its former glory on the gridiron - or die trying!

If it doesn't, well you did your best. And you MUST TRY, given the financial landscape in which you now find yourselves.

Go Bears!

Cal wins 27-24. Book it

CalConor said:

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I predict we'll be up by double digits at some point and end up losing. Thankfully, I won't be watching.

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CalConor said:

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I predict we'll be up by double digits at some point and end up losing. Thankfully, I won't be watching.

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understood conor, getting ur testerone levels checked is really important

philly1121 said:

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Pitt 31, Cal 21

We get out to an early lead and then fade late.

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East coast bias.

Eh not really. From Orange County. Live in Fresno. Try harder.

Is the Pitt game being broadcast on ESPN2, or somewhere accessible?

It's on the ocho

Pittstop said:

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Is the Pitt game being broadcast on ESPN2, or somewhere accessible?

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ESPN I believe

calumnus said:

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Pittstop said:

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Is the Pitt game being broadcast on ESPN2, or somewhere accessible?

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ESPN I believe

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Thanks!

Let's hope we don't get into another Wilcox rock fight. For reference we roughly lose 2/3 of games decided by a touchdown or less, and 40% of his games meet that criteria. Per the all-knowing AI:

Justin Wilcox's record in games decided by one touchdown or less has been a challenging aspect of his tenure as Cal's head coach. Between 2017 and 2023, his teams have played in 33 games decided by 7 points or fewer, with a record of 12-21 in those close contests. This difficulty in closing out tight games has been a key factor in Cal's struggles to achieve consistent winning seasons during his time as head coach

On the other end of the spectrum, 27% of his games are losses by two touchdowns or more.

oski003 said:

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calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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calumnus said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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MrGPAC said:

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ducky23 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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ducky23 said:

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Pitt is EXACTLY in the position we are typically in and where we always fall flat on our faces (undefeated record after a soft early schedule, early ranking in 20's).

I think it's very possible Pitt lays an egg.

We are more talented, I have very little doubt of this. My only concern is whether Wilcox can actually win a close game. (Auburn was not a close game - if you get 5 turnovers that should be a double digit win).

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I feel like the narrative that Wilcox doesn't win close games is a bit off kilter. He wins close games (Washington 18 and 19, Oregon, USC '18) and loses close games (several points in the past).

I think he just plays close games and loses more than wins.

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He won close games early in his tenure, but hasn't done so this side of COVID. Haven't seen any signs of it changing. I would argue that we were dominant against Miami because of good luck, rather than losing because of bad luck. No team can sustain such high yards per play as we did in the first three quarters

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I'm not sure I'd say it's necessarily luck. Miami's D is high risk and high reward by design.

Basically their philosophy is that their offense is so good, they want to maximize how many plays they can run per game. The idea is that the more total plays run, the better for them because, over time, their talent will win out (proved to be right).

What they don't want is the other team grinding out drives and running clock. They want 3 and outs, and if they give up a few big plays (or quick scores) along the way, fine…their offense can make up for it.

It's exactly the type of D I was advocating for during the Dykes era.

What you absolutely cannot do against an overly aggressive D is play it safe. Cause they're going to eat you alive.

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It's not just that. Teams actively plan around taking Ott out of the game. Its not JUST bad play by the o-line. They stack the box bring the safety close in and crash the hand off as best they can. They want to force you to beat them through the air.

The downside of stacking the box and aggressively pursuing the hand off is that you leave over the top open, and with your safeties sucked in close to the line you leave yourself vulnerable to big plays. This also forces a lot of 1:1 matchups where tightends size can really exploit smaller db's with no safety help.

Cal just has done a **** job of exploiting this. The solution is to get these chunk plays repeatedly until the safeties are forced to retreat backwards. Punish the dline/linebackers for overpursuing and they will back off and be more tentative, then the run game will open up. Instead of waiting for them to adjust we seem to call our plays in a vacuum, ignoring the defense in front of us and playing against an idealized one instead.

These things don't happen in a vacuum.

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I've been saying this exact same thing over and over in other threads. That's why it's unfair to put all the blame on the oline. And it's why you cannot cannot cannot go vanilla.

I feel like Wilcox learned a partial lesson from the FSU game that this is how defenses are playing us, so you have to be aggressive.

Now the trick is for him to realize you have to commit 100% and do this the entire game.

He's a slow learner our Wilcox is.

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Its not even about doing the same thing the entire game. Its about taking what the defense is giving you every single play.

Being able to impose your will on the opposition and do whatever YOU want is a GREAT long term goal, but REQUIRES superior athletes AND superior execution to do successfully. That's just not where we are now as a team...and frankly with NIL and the current transfer rules we may never get there. We are going to get to more parity, not less.

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I disagree with that last part. This weekend was full of upsets. Vanderbilt beat #7 Alabama 40-35. Does anyone think Vanderbilt has "superior" athletes to Alabama? No, but they had a better game plan. Misdirection, they had a 23-14 lead going into the half but did not let up.

And NIL has been a godsend for Cal. Cal has had top 20 Transfer Portal rankings two years in a row.

Here are our HS recruiting rankings under Wilcox:

2017 #70
2018 #42
2019 #42
2020 #39
2021 #29
2022 #59
2023 #79
2024 #55

Again our last two Portal classes have been #18 and #17.
Sebasta and Cal Legends are killing it and providing Wilcox with talent. We have a large, wealthy alumni base to draw from. The biggest impediment is having coaches that squander talent.

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What does that have to do with imposing your will? Imposing your will on an opponent means that they sell out to stop the run but you run it up the gut on them consistently anyways, which is what cal was able to do vs San Diego State and UC Davis late in the games. That isn't what Vanderbuilt did to Alabama and it isn't how we were going to beat Florida State OR Miami.

Teams sell out to stop the run against us, so we have to use that to our advantage. That's how we built the lead vs Miami. Going away from it is how we let them back in it.

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I agree with that part 100% What I disagree with is that we are at a huge talent disadvantage because of NIL. I think NIL in our current form is an advantage for us.

There are no top P4 teams that I am aware of that just try to line up vanilla and impose their will running up the middle repeatedly on other P4 teams. The top teams are all fairly creative on offense because they need to be to beat other top P4 teams. I think we have shown in the Miami game that we have the talent to beat teams like Miami. I don't know that our OL is terrible (other than false starts against FSU) it was good enough to score 38 points through 3 quarters against Miami when we used a little misdirection and emphasized our strengths. It is obviously not overwhelmingly great enough to run on first and second downs and then drop straight back on third and long. Nowhere close.

So we are in agreement, we need creative playcalling with misdirection to win. Where we disagree is I think Sebasta and the Cal Legends have given Wilcox a lot of talent. He and his staff are just not using it well.

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"It is obviously not overwhelmingly great enough to run on first and second downs and then drop straight back on third and long. Nowhere close."

Good thing we didn't do that in the 4th! We passed to Ott on first down but the wide pass was dropped.

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A short backfield pass, something Fernando does not do well, to Ott, who the defense was keying on because it was first down. Can you not see why that was not going to work?

Then failing that, 2nd and 10, what did we do? Run Ott up the middle for no gain setting up the 3rd and long sack.