Report: North Carolina exploring potential move from ACC to SEC

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sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

We are hanging on to a system that no longer works or makes any sense. I do think it is going to evolve to something that makes sense, but right now it is doing so in a haphazard manner that is taking too long.

First of all, let's get acceptance that College football and men's basketball are professional sports leagues now. Second of all, they are two different professional sports leagues. There is really no reason that schools in the same football conference need to also be in the same basketball conference.

College football and basketball are fundamentally different business models. Football is hell expensive. You need 5 times the number of quality players to field a competitive football team than you need in basketball, meaning a lower level team can't get lucky with one or two guys and compete. There is more money making potential in football. Football is more about a whole system of strength and conditioning to develop bodies. A 240 lb player cannot just outskill a 300lb player. As a result, a school like St. Mary's can compete in basketball where even if they wanted to they have no chance to compete in football.

Just discussing football because I think it is more black and white. There are not 40, 50, 60 teams that are financially viable. Pro sports leagues in the US have pretty well settled in around 30 teams, I think there is a good reason for this. Get much beyond that and you spread the product too thin. Also, the disparity between the haves and the have nots is just too great.

The college football organization has been blown up. The NCAA was barely a business organization and it was terrible at it. The SEC and the Big 10 are the de facto major leagues here. They need to join together with business sponsorship and form a league that is an actual private business not related to school administrations or state governments. They need to have a league of 32 or 36 teams. They have the management invite teams to apply and then pick the teams based on long term financial viability and that is it. They form a self contained league and they do not play anybody else. Structure the league similar to the NFL. Similar schedules. Similar playoffs so you don't have this idiotic "I lost two games now I'm out" BS. And It will be best for all concerned. Cut off the dreams of the teams that can't accept that they can never compete so they stop being idiots with their money. Then out of those teams you'll see another league - cheaper to run because they can't afford more - that will form out of the next 32 or 36 teams.

This would also bring more stability with the personnel. The top league will barely recruit high school players because they are too risky and be subject to leaving anyway. They will take only the very cream of the crop out of high school and otherwise hire guys who have proven themselves in the lower leagues. The lower leagues would be made up of young players and experienced players who can't make it in the top leagues.

There would be a lot more stability and competitiveness within leagues. No more 60 point destruction games. Games would be a lot more entertaining with more evenly matched teams. Teams would spend the appropriate amount of money for their level because they wouldn't all be trying to follow a fantasy of getting into a higher level.

The current system is killing midrange teams. It is like watching a car race where a bunch of drivers in Yugo's are burning out their engines with their pedal to the floor, trying to keep up with Porsches.

I honestly think separating the top from the middle will reinvigorate the middle tier allowing them to play competitive games and compete for championships as medium sized frogs in medium sized ponds.





I am not arguing with your reasoning. But to me if there is major shrinkage in the number of viable college teams, it will shrink the available players who can be recruited by the Pros.
Right now there is a very large pool of potential Pro players. Many come out of Podunk Universities.
What happens when that large pool dries up to just 32 or 36 teams.
Remember that A. Rodgers was recruited by Cal of a J.C. because no other school wanted to take a chance on him.
Take away Cal and there would have been no A. Rodgers.
Take away Cal and that would likely dry up J.C. football.
Which schools (4-year or J.C. would be willing to spend money to keep alive College Football if that school has no hope of making its college football program economically feasible.)

I see Pro Football sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the long run.


I think the idea here is that the smaller schools would still recruit those players and give them chances, and if they blew up (like Rodgers) then the top league would get them in the transfer portal.

Heck, star NFL players still got drafted from the I-AA / FCS ranks in the old days too (Jerry Rice, Steve McNair, etc.). The NFL will find their talent wherever it is.


It's basically the same system in international soccer, when a young player blows up at a small club, he gets picked up by a big club. The difference is that in soccer, the small club gets a transfer fee from the big club.

Yeah, hence why I have argued that if college sports is to move to that kind of model, then it also needs a promotion/relegation system similar to the big European leagues. For example, Oregon almost certainly would have been in the second tier of college football up until Phil Knight started throwing his money around there, and now they are clearly a first-tier program. If a "super league" system had been set up in 1993 then they might have been permanently locked out of the top tier. That seems unfair and not healthy for the ecosystem.
GivemTheAxe
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sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

We are hanging on to a system that no longer works or makes any sense. I do think it is going to evolve to something that makes sense, but right now it is doing so in a haphazard manner that is taking too long.

First of all, let's get acceptance that College football and men's basketball are professional sports leagues now. Second of all, they are two different professional sports leagues. There is really no reason that schools in the same football conference need to also be in the same basketball conference.

College football and basketball are fundamentally different business models. Football is hell expensive. You need 5 times the number of quality players to field a competitive football team than you need in basketball, meaning a lower level team can't get lucky with one or two guys and compete. There is more money making potential in football. Football is more about a whole system of strength and conditioning to develop bodies. A 240 lb player cannot just outskill a 300lb player. As a result, a school like St. Mary's can compete in basketball where even if they wanted to they have no chance to compete in football.

Just discussing football because I think it is more black and white. There are not 40, 50, 60 teams that are financially viable. Pro sports leagues in the US have pretty well settled in around 30 teams, I think there is a good reason for this. Get much beyond that and you spread the product too thin. Also, the disparity between the haves and the have nots is just too great.

The college football organization has been blown up. The NCAA was barely a business organization and it was terrible at it. The SEC and the Big 10 are the de facto major leagues here. They need to join together with business sponsorship and form a league that is an actual private business not related to school administrations or state governments. They need to have a league of 32 or 36 teams. They have the management invite teams to apply and then pick the teams based on long term financial viability and that is it. They form a self contained league and they do not play anybody else. Structure the league similar to the NFL. Similar schedules. Similar playoffs so you don't have this idiotic "I lost two games now I'm out" BS. And It will be best for all concerned. Cut off the dreams of the teams that can't accept that they can never compete so they stop being idiots with their money. Then out of those teams you'll see another league - cheaper to run because they can't afford more - that will form out of the next 32 or 36 teams.

This would also bring more stability with the personnel. The top league will barely recruit high school players because they are too risky and be subject to leaving anyway. They will take only the very cream of the crop out of high school and otherwise hire guys who have proven themselves in the lower leagues. The lower leagues would be made up of young players and experienced players who can't make it in the top leagues.

There would be a lot more stability and competitiveness within leagues. No more 60 point destruction games. Games would be a lot more entertaining with more evenly matched teams. Teams would spend the appropriate amount of money for their level because they wouldn't all be trying to follow a fantasy of getting into a higher level.

The current system is killing midrange teams. It is like watching a car race where a bunch of drivers in Yugo's are burning out their engines with their pedal to the floor, trying to keep up with Porsches.

I honestly think separating the top from the middle will reinvigorate the middle tier allowing them to play competitive games and compete for championships as medium sized frogs in medium sized ponds.





I am not arguing with your reasoning. But to me if there is major shrinkage in the number of viable college teams, it will shrink the available players who can be recruited by the Pros.
Right now there is a very large pool of potential Pro players. Many come out of Podunk Universities.
What happens when that large pool dries up to just 32 or 36 teams.
Remember that A. Rodgers was recruited by Cal of a J.C. because no other school wanted to take a chance on him.
Take away Cal and there would have been no A. Rodgers.
Take away Cal and that would likely dry up J.C. football.
Which schools (4-year or J.C. would be willing to spend money to keep alive College Football if that school has no hope of making its college football program economically feasible.)

I see Pro Football sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the long run.


I think the idea here is that the smaller schools would still recruit those players and give them chances, and if they blew up (like Rodgers) then the top league would get them in the transfer portal.

Heck, star NFL players still got drafted from the I-AA / FCS ranks in the old days too (Jerry Rice, Steve McNair, etc.). The NFL will find their talent wherever it is.

The problem i see with your reply is that it assumes that smaller schools would keep their College Football programs. Sustaining a college football program costs a ton of money (unlike MBB, WBB, college baseball).
If the TV money is paid to the top 32-36 teams, we will see more and more mid-level and lower level schools closing down their College Football programs. That will reduce the vast pool of college football players who currently play College Football. (There will be an ever shrinking pool of available college football players.)

It will also reduce the number of college football coaches who are available. Remember that J. Harbaugh got his start coaching the University of San Diego (i.e. NOT San Diego State). Then he was hired straight into the HC job at Stanford.

Maybe the NFL will come to its senses and finance the creation of Minor League Football.

sycasey
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GivemTheAxe said:

sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

We are hanging on to a system that no longer works or makes any sense. I do think it is going to evolve to something that makes sense, but right now it is doing so in a haphazard manner that is taking too long.

First of all, let's get acceptance that College football and men's basketball are professional sports leagues now. Second of all, they are two different professional sports leagues. There is really no reason that schools in the same football conference need to also be in the same basketball conference.

College football and basketball are fundamentally different business models. Football is hell expensive. You need 5 times the number of quality players to field a competitive football team than you need in basketball, meaning a lower level team can't get lucky with one or two guys and compete. There is more money making potential in football. Football is more about a whole system of strength and conditioning to develop bodies. A 240 lb player cannot just outskill a 300lb player. As a result, a school like St. Mary's can compete in basketball where even if they wanted to they have no chance to compete in football.

Just discussing football because I think it is more black and white. There are not 40, 50, 60 teams that are financially viable. Pro sports leagues in the US have pretty well settled in around 30 teams, I think there is a good reason for this. Get much beyond that and you spread the product too thin. Also, the disparity between the haves and the have nots is just too great.

The college football organization has been blown up. The NCAA was barely a business organization and it was terrible at it. The SEC and the Big 10 are the de facto major leagues here. They need to join together with business sponsorship and form a league that is an actual private business not related to school administrations or state governments. They need to have a league of 32 or 36 teams. They have the management invite teams to apply and then pick the teams based on long term financial viability and that is it. They form a self contained league and they do not play anybody else. Structure the league similar to the NFL. Similar schedules. Similar playoffs so you don't have this idiotic "I lost two games now I'm out" BS. And It will be best for all concerned. Cut off the dreams of the teams that can't accept that they can never compete so they stop being idiots with their money. Then out of those teams you'll see another league - cheaper to run because they can't afford more - that will form out of the next 32 or 36 teams.

This would also bring more stability with the personnel. The top league will barely recruit high school players because they are too risky and be subject to leaving anyway. They will take only the very cream of the crop out of high school and otherwise hire guys who have proven themselves in the lower leagues. The lower leagues would be made up of young players and experienced players who can't make it in the top leagues.

There would be a lot more stability and competitiveness within leagues. No more 60 point destruction games. Games would be a lot more entertaining with more evenly matched teams. Teams would spend the appropriate amount of money for their level because they wouldn't all be trying to follow a fantasy of getting into a higher level.

The current system is killing midrange teams. It is like watching a car race where a bunch of drivers in Yugo's are burning out their engines with their pedal to the floor, trying to keep up with Porsches.

I honestly think separating the top from the middle will reinvigorate the middle tier allowing them to play competitive games and compete for championships as medium sized frogs in medium sized ponds.





I am not arguing with your reasoning. But to me if there is major shrinkage in the number of viable college teams, it will shrink the available players who can be recruited by the Pros.
Right now there is a very large pool of potential Pro players. Many come out of Podunk Universities.
What happens when that large pool dries up to just 32 or 36 teams.
Remember that A. Rodgers was recruited by Cal of a J.C. because no other school wanted to take a chance on him.
Take away Cal and there would have been no A. Rodgers.
Take away Cal and that would likely dry up J.C. football.
Which schools (4-year or J.C. would be willing to spend money to keep alive College Football if that school has no hope of making its college football program economically feasible.)

I see Pro Football sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the long run.


I think the idea here is that the smaller schools would still recruit those players and give them chances, and if they blew up (like Rodgers) then the top league would get them in the transfer portal.

Heck, star NFL players still got drafted from the I-AA / FCS ranks in the old days too (Jerry Rice, Steve McNair, etc.). The NFL will find their talent wherever it is.

The problem i see with your reply is that it assumes that smaller schools would keep their College Football programs. Sustaining a college football program costs a ton of money (unlike MBB, WBB, college baseball).
If the TV money is paid to the top 32-36 teams, we will see more and more mid-level and lower level schools closing down their College Football programs. That will reduce the vast pool of college football players who currently play College Football. (There will be an ever shrinking pool of available college football players.)

It will also reduce the number of college football coaches who are available. Remember that J. Harbaugh got his start coaching the University of San Diego (i.e. NOT San Diego State). Then he was hired straight into the HC job at Stanford.

Maybe the NFL will come to its senses and finance the creation of Minor League Football.



If English football is the model, then even there the 2nd and 3rd tier leagues still have TV deals and money paid out, they just get less of it. Which is not too far off from what we have now, with the B1G and SEC money compared to the ACC and Big 12, compared to the G5 leagues and so forth.
GivemTheAxe
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sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

We are hanging on to a system that no longer works or makes any sense. I do think it is going to evolve to something that makes sense, but right now it is doing so in a haphazard manner that is taking too long.

First of all, let's get acceptance that College football and men's basketball are professional sports leagues now. Second of all, they are two different professional sports leagues. There is really no reason that schools in the same football conference need to also be in the same basketball conference.

College football and basketball are fundamentally different business models. Football is hell expensive. You need 5 times the number of quality players to field a competitive football team than you need in basketball, meaning a lower level team can't get lucky with one or two guys and compete. There is more money making potential in football. Football is more about a whole system of strength and conditioning to develop bodies. A 240 lb player cannot just outskill a 300lb player. As a result, a school like St. Mary's can compete in basketball where even if they wanted to they have no chance to compete in football.

Just discussing football because I think it is more black and white. There are not 40, 50, 60 teams that are financially viable. Pro sports leagues in the US have pretty well settled in around 30 teams, I think there is a good reason for this. Get much beyond that and you spread the product too thin. Also, the disparity between the haves and the have nots is just too great.

The college football organization has been blown up. The NCAA was barely a business organization and it was terrible at it. The SEC and the Big 10 are the de facto major leagues here. They need to join together with business sponsorship and form a league that is an actual private business not related to school administrations or state governments. They need to have a league of 32 or 36 teams. They have the management invite teams to apply and then pick the teams based on long term financial viability and that is it. They form a self contained league and they do not play anybody else. Structure the league similar to the NFL. Similar schedules. Similar playoffs so you don't have this idiotic "I lost two games now I'm out" BS. And It will be best for all concerned. Cut off the dreams of the teams that can't accept that they can never compete so they stop being idiots with their money. Then out of those teams you'll see another league - cheaper to run because they can't afford more - that will form out of the next 32 or 36 teams.

This would also bring more stability with the personnel. The top league will barely recruit high school players because they are too risky and be subject to leaving anyway. They will take only the very cream of the crop out of high school and otherwise hire guys who have proven themselves in the lower leagues. The lower leagues would be made up of young players and experienced players who can't make it in the top leagues.

There would be a lot more stability and competitiveness within leagues. No more 60 point destruction games. Games would be a lot more entertaining with more evenly matched teams. Teams would spend the appropriate amount of money for their level because they wouldn't all be trying to follow a fantasy of getting into a higher level.

The current system is killing midrange teams. It is like watching a car race where a bunch of drivers in Yugo's are burning out their engines with their pedal to the floor, trying to keep up with Porsches.

I honestly think separating the top from the middle will reinvigorate the middle tier allowing them to play competitive games and compete for championships as medium sized frogs in medium sized ponds.





I am not arguing with your reasoning. But to me if there is major shrinkage in the number of viable college teams, it will shrink the available players who can be recruited by the Pros.
Right now there is a very large pool of potential Pro players. Many come out of Podunk Universities.
What happens when that large pool dries up to just 32 or 36 teams.
Remember that A. Rodgers was recruited by Cal of a J.C. because no other school wanted to take a chance on him.
Take away Cal and there would have been no A. Rodgers.
Take away Cal and that would likely dry up J.C. football.
Which schools (4-year or J.C. would be willing to spend money to keep alive College Football if that school has no hope of making its college football program economically feasible.)

I see Pro Football sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the long run.


I think the idea here is that the smaller schools would still recruit those players and give them chances, and if they blew up (like Rodgers) then the top league would get them in the transfer portal.

Heck, star NFL players still got drafted from the I-AA / FCS ranks in the old days too (Jerry Rice, Steve McNair, etc.). The NFL will find their talent wherever it is.

The problem i see with your reply is that it assumes that smaller schools would keep their College Football programs. Sustaining a college football program costs a ton of money (unlike MBB, WBB, college baseball).
If the TV money is paid to the top 32-36 teams, we will see more and more mid-level and lower level schools closing down their College Football programs. That will reduce the vast pool of college football players who currently play College Football. (There will be an ever shrinking pool of available college football players.)

It will also reduce the number of college football coaches who are available. Remember that J. Harbaugh got his start coaching the University of San Diego (i.e. NOT San Diego State). Then he was hired straight into the HC job at Stanford.

Maybe the NFL will come to its senses and finance the creation of Minor League Football.



If English football is the model, then even there the 2nd and 3rd tier leagues still have TV deals and money paid out, they just get less of it. Which is not too far off from what we have now, with the B1G and SEC money compared to the ACC and Big 12, compared to the G5 leagues and so forth.

The ACC report on Cal earlier this year (before the projections for the upcoming season) came to the conclusion that What happened to Cal during the past 12 months are an object lesson as what will happen to the mid-tier teams.

Cal was able to recruit and field a credible team for 2024. However Cal was not able to retain that team because of the Portal and the NIL Cal did not have the money to do so. Unless Cal was able to get sufficient big donors to "play with the Big Boys", Cal would be forever stuck in a Catch-22 situation. "It cannot improve because it does not have enough money. It can not get enough money until it can improve."
Bobodeluxe
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Would anybody notice?
Cal88
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sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

We are hanging on to a system that no longer works or makes any sense. I do think it is going to evolve to something that makes sense, but right now it is doing so in a haphazard manner that is taking too long.

First of all, let's get acceptance that College football and men's basketball are professional sports leagues now. Second of all, they are two different professional sports leagues. There is really no reason that schools in the same football conference need to also be in the same basketball conference.

College football and basketball are fundamentally different business models. Football is hell expensive. You need 5 times the number of quality players to field a competitive football team than you need in basketball, meaning a lower level team can't get lucky with one or two guys and compete. There is more money making potential in football. Football is more about a whole system of strength and conditioning to develop bodies. A 240 lb player cannot just outskill a 300lb player. As a result, a school like St. Mary's can compete in basketball where even if they wanted to they have no chance to compete in football.

Just discussing football because I think it is more black and white. There are not 40, 50, 60 teams that are financially viable. Pro sports leagues in the US have pretty well settled in around 30 teams, I think there is a good reason for this. Get much beyond that and you spread the product too thin. Also, the disparity between the haves and the have nots is just too great.

The college football organization has been blown up. The NCAA was barely a business organization and it was terrible at it. The SEC and the Big 10 are the de facto major leagues here. They need to join together with business sponsorship and form a league that is an actual private business not related to school administrations or state governments. They need to have a league of 32 or 36 teams. They have the management invite teams to apply and then pick the teams based on long term financial viability and that is it. They form a self contained league and they do not play anybody else. Structure the league similar to the NFL. Similar schedules. Similar playoffs so you don't have this idiotic "I lost two games now I'm out" BS. And It will be best for all concerned. Cut off the dreams of the teams that can't accept that they can never compete so they stop being idiots with their money. Then out of those teams you'll see another league - cheaper to run because they can't afford more - that will form out of the next 32 or 36 teams.

This would also bring more stability with the personnel. The top league will barely recruit high school players because they are too risky and be subject to leaving anyway. They will take only the very cream of the crop out of high school and otherwise hire guys who have proven themselves in the lower leagues. The lower leagues would be made up of young players and experienced players who can't make it in the top leagues.

There would be a lot more stability and competitiveness within leagues. No more 60 point destruction games. Games would be a lot more entertaining with more evenly matched teams. Teams would spend the appropriate amount of money for their level because they wouldn't all be trying to follow a fantasy of getting into a higher level.

The current system is killing midrange teams. It is like watching a car race where a bunch of drivers in Yugo's are burning out their engines with their pedal to the floor, trying to keep up with Porsches.

I honestly think separating the top from the middle will reinvigorate the middle tier allowing them to play competitive games and compete for championships as medium sized frogs in medium sized ponds.





I am not arguing with your reasoning. But to me if there is major shrinkage in the number of viable college teams, it will shrink the available players who can be recruited by the Pros.
Right now there is a very large pool of potential Pro players. Many come out of Podunk Universities.
What happens when that large pool dries up to just 32 or 36 teams.
Remember that A. Rodgers was recruited by Cal of a J.C. because no other school wanted to take a chance on him.
Take away Cal and there would have been no A. Rodgers.
Take away Cal and that would likely dry up J.C. football.
Which schools (4-year or J.C. would be willing to spend money to keep alive College Football if that school has no hope of making its college football program economically feasible.)

I see Pro Football sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the long run.


I think the idea here is that the smaller schools would still recruit those players and give them chances, and if they blew up (like Rodgers) then the top league would get them in the transfer portal.

Heck, star NFL players still got drafted from the I-AA / FCS ranks in the old days too (Jerry Rice, Steve McNair, etc.). The NFL will find their talent wherever it is.

The problem i see with your reply is that it assumes that smaller schools would keep their College Football programs. Sustaining a college football program costs a ton of money (unlike MBB, WBB, college baseball).
If the TV money is paid to the top 32-36 teams, we will see more and more mid-level and lower level schools closing down their College Football programs. That will reduce the vast pool of college football players who currently play College Football. (There will be an ever shrinking pool of available college football players.)

It will also reduce the number of college football coaches who are available. Remember that J. Harbaugh got his start coaching the University of San Diego (i.e. NOT San Diego State). Then he was hired straight into the HC job at Stanford.

Maybe the NFL will come to its senses and finance the creation of Minor League Football.



If English football is the model, then even there the 2nd and 3rd tier leagues still have TV deals and money paid out, they just get less of it. Which is not too far off from what we have now, with the B1G and SEC money compared to the ACC and Big 12, compared to the G5 leagues and so forth.


The revenue gap between the English Premier League and the Championship League or 2nd tier English soccer league is much, much, much wider than the current gap between the SEC/B10 and the leftover P5, about 10 to 1 (6 billion pounds vs 700 million)



The bottom two bars are the 2nd tier league teams. Furthermore, there is a huge discrepancy between the top teams in the top league and the mid/bottom teams. This is where college football might be headed, the top teams from the top leagues (Bama, UGA, Texas, Michigan, tOSU,...) are going to require to be more compensated than the lesser programs in their league (Vandy, UK, Purdue, Maryland, Rutgers,...) barring which they will secede and create a superleague of 12-18 teams, with the playoffs from that superleague monopolizing or even replacing the current college football playoff structure.

That is the logical endgame in this runaway money-driven elitist NCAAF restructuring.
Bearly Clad
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Gotta say, if our best scenarios for a B10 bid amount to:

1. Notre Dame and LSJU drag us along again

or


2. Maybe everyone else in the ACC turns them down and we're the last dance partner left unless they wanna go for Toledo to get a piece of that seeet, sweet MACtion

Then we're not looking particularly good with the realignment deadline quickly approaching. Who knows though, maybe the Calgorithm puts in overtime work to make us endearing/polarizing enough to the point where we're considered a brand.

Honestly though the whole downfall of CFB can be traced to one thing, imo, the national championship game/CFP. College football was at it's best when what mattered most was regionalism, rivalries, winning your conference, making a bowl game (and they actually mattered enough for guys to care to play in them), the regular season mattered most but bowl season was a big deal too, and the season ended on New Year's Day with the Rose, Orange, Cotton, and Sugar Bowls. No one will ever convince me otherwise. The obsession to not have a disputed national champion and to find out who was really #1 led to the national championship game (which was bad enough) and now the CFP. In caring about who was #1 we've turned away from what made CFB the greatest sport league on the planet and made the regular season and bowl season meaningless for about 117 out of 132 D1 teams
GivemTheAxe
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Bearly Clad said:

Gotta say, if our best scenarios for a B10 bid amount to:

1. Notre Dame and LSJU drag us along again

or


2. Maybe everyone else in the ACC turns them down and we're the last dance partner left unless they wanna go for Toledo to get a piece of that seeet, sweet MACtion

Then we're not looking particularly good with the realignment deadline quickly approaching. Who knows though, maybe the Calgorithm puts in overtime work to make us endearing/polarizing enough to the point where we're considered a brand.

Honestly though the whole downfall of CFB can be traced to one thing, imo, the national championship game/CFP. College football was at it's best when what mattered most was regionalism, rivalries, winning your conference, making a bowl game (and they actually mattered enough for guys to care to play in them), the regular season mattered most but bowl season was a big deal too, and the season ended on New Year's Day with the Rose, Orange, Cotton, and Sugar Bowls. No one will ever convince me otherwise. The obsession to not have a disputed national champion and to find out who was really #1 led to the national championship game (which was bad enough) and now the CFP. In caring about who was #1 we've turned away from what made CFB the greatest sport league on the planet and made the regular season and bowl season meaningless for about 117 out of 132 D1 teams


I totally agree with you. Back then I also made the argument that the quest for a definitive #1 would destroy college football as we knew it.

The old system was so much better.
Regional rivalries drove the regional bowl games.
Regional rivalries drove TV viewership
At the end of the Bowl season there were multiple Winners ( I.e. the winners of their bowl games, their fans, their coaches.). A perfect Win-win-win situation.

For the most part today's winners could change every year of so. So fans of today's losers could have hope ("wait til next year).

Unfortunately too many colleges, fans, coaches and most of all TV got greedy. They wanted a national champion in order to squeeze every drop of money and fame from every CFB season.

I honestly believe that CFB in its past iteration could have continued to flourish even with the NIL and with rational LIMITED player access to the Portal

But NIL and unlimited access to the Portal blew up CFB when added to the insane drive to find a #1. ["Gasoline meet fire".]

Any way that is my two cents.
Bobodeluxe
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As a fan of laundry, I'll read about the games in the paper.

Yes. I subscribe to newspapers.
sycasey
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Bearly Clad said:

Gotta say, if our best scenarios for a B10 bid amount to:

1. Notre Dame and LSJU drag us along again

or


2. Maybe everyone else in the ACC turns them down and we're the last dance partner left unless they wanna go for Toledo to get a piece of that seeet, sweet MACtion

Then we're not looking particularly good with the realignment deadline quickly approaching. Who knows though, maybe the Calgorithm puts in overtime work to make us endearing/polarizing enough to the point where we're considered a brand.

Honestly though the whole downfall of CFB can be traced to one thing, imo, the national championship game/CFP. College football was at it's best when what mattered most was regionalism, rivalries, winning your conference, making a bowl game (and they actually mattered enough for guys to care to play in them), the regular season mattered most but bowl season was a big deal too, and the season ended on New Year's Day with the Rose, Orange, Cotton, and Sugar Bowls. No one will ever convince me otherwise. The obsession to not have a disputed national champion and to find out who was really #1 led to the national championship game (which was bad enough) and now the CFP. In caring about who was #1 we've turned away from what made CFB the greatest sport league on the planet and made the regular season and bowl season meaningless for about 117 out of 132 D1 teams

This is probably true but also it was inevitable that there'd be a desire for a clear national champion. College football wasn't going to go along forever without having one when every other popular team sport in the country has that.
6956bear
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GivemTheAxe said:

Bearly Clad said:

Gotta say, if our best scenarios for a B10 bid amount to:

1. Notre Dame and LSJU drag us along again

or


2. Maybe everyone else in the ACC turns them down and we're the last dance partner left unless they wanna go for Toledo to get a piece of that seeet, sweet MACtion

Then we're not looking particularly good with the realignment deadline quickly approaching. Who knows though, maybe the Calgorithm puts in overtime work to make us endearing/polarizing enough to the point where we're considered a brand.

Honestly though the whole downfall of CFB can be traced to one thing, imo, the national championship game/CFP. College football was at it's best when what mattered most was regionalism, rivalries, winning your conference, making a bowl game (and they actually mattered enough for guys to care to play in them), the regular season mattered most but bowl season was a big deal too, and the season ended on New Year's Day with the Rose, Orange, Cotton, and Sugar Bowls. No one will ever convince me otherwise. The obsession to not have a disputed national champion and to find out who was really #1 led to the national championship game (which was bad enough) and now the CFP. In caring about who was #1 we've turned away from what made CFB the greatest sport league on the planet and made the regular season and bowl season meaningless for about 117 out of 132 D1 teams


I totally agree with you. Back then I also made the argument that the quest for a definitive #1 would destroy college football as we knew it.

The old system was so much better.
Regional rivalries drove the regional bowl games.
Regional rivalries drove TV viewership
At the end of the Bowl season there were multiple Winners ( I.e. the winners of their bowl games, their fans, their coaches.). A perfect Win-win-win situation.

For the most part today's winners could change every year of so. So fans of today's losers could have hope ("wait til next year).

Unfortunately too many colleges, fans, coaches and most of all TV got greedy. They wanted a national champion in order to squeeze every drop of money and fame from every CFB season.

I honestly believe that CFB in its past iteration could have continued to flourish even with the NIL and with rational LIMITED player access to the Portal

But NIL and unlimited access to the Portal blew up CFB when added to the insane drive to find a #1. ["Gasoline meet fire".]

Any way that is my two cents.

The horse is out of the barn in college football. TV revenues pay the freight. It is not going back to the old way. At least not at the P4 level. The House settlement which may never be implemented fully as written allows direct payments to players. The players are going to get paid. So TV plays an oversized role.

The SEC and the B1G control the CFP. They are bickering over the CFP format and conference scheduling. They do not want to give up their decided competitive advantages. So programs are now doing what they can to make themselves attractive for the next realignment. Winning will matter a lot. Look at how ASU is now preceived after just one terrific season. Your program must be a brand to matter.

The other P4 conferences are now looking at what the ACC did. Tiered revenue distributions based on results and brand attractiveness (TV ratings). The B1G is exploring this right now. Why on earth would Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St and USC allow Maryland, Rutgers and Purdue to collect the same TV revenues. There is little incentive for those teams to invest in football when they collect the same revenues.

There has been discussion on this board about a model similar to Premier League Soccer. It is already somewhat similar. Other than relegation. The Premier League has tiered payouts. First gets more than second and so on. The ACC has adopted this already. The Premier League has Champions League qualifications. College football has the CFP. They are arguing over the selection criteria. The Premier League has Derbys. Regional rivalries that draw great interest regardless of the standings. College football has rivalries. TV makes it seem like they no longer matter. But the BIg Game draws well and most years neither team is any good.

But the race is on to remain P4. Cal is facing a steep uphill climb unless P4 stays as it is or very close. If the P4 goes from around 70 to say 48 Cal will almost certainly be excluded. The brand is bad. It is no longer about the quality of the school. It is about football brands. TV wants this. The schools need the TV money. They have sold their soul to TV. But really this goes back to the greed of the schools. Not wanting to share the wealth with the players. Using whatever TV revenues they got regardless of record to pay for coaches and other programs etc.

What UNC is doing is trying to build a football brand. Colorado brought in Deion (get well coach) and UNC has brought in Bill Belicheck. The ultimate NFL HC GOAT. UNC has sold out their season tickets. ESPN is planning on putting a large number of UNC games on either ABC or ESPN. They have also brought in an AD in waiting. He will be assisting the President on media and marketing. Then take over in 2026. They know you must win now. You must build a brand. Cal has made some significant changes. Rivera and Lyons are big changes. But they still have a very poor recent history on the field. They still have the same HC. They do not get good viewership unless they play Notre Dame or some other blueblood. The stadium sits half full most game days. A recent brand valuation placed Cal at 16th in a 17 team league. Only Wake Forest was lower.

Cal needs to win. Cal needs to increase home attendance. Cal needs to drastically improve TV viewership. And they really need a few significant wins to change the narrative. They had Notre Dame on the ropes but a phantom call changed the momentum and likely the outcome. They had Miami beaten. Then went into a shell and Miami came back to win. A late no call on a clear targeting allowed Miami one last chance. They took advantage. Cal has a schedule this season that has few real marquee matchups. But they do play UNC at CMS on a Friday night. They need a big crowd. They need to win. Big would be best. Cal must take full advantage of any opportunity to make a statement. Too many misses recently.

If realignment is going to occur there can be no more missteps. Invest, win, attract fans both in person and on TV. And lobby the hell out of the B1G for a spot. College football is now a business. And TV is driving the business. It is unlikley to ever be what it once was. Cal can be that regional program playing regional games. Just keep losing. Then we can look forward to games vs Fresno St., SDSU and Utah St every season. As conference opponents and be the sacrificial lamb that plays in body bag games vs Texas or Ohio St for a payday.
BearlyCareAnymore
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GivemTheAxe said:

Bearly Clad said:

Gotta say, if our best scenarios for a B10 bid amount to:

1. Notre Dame and LSJU drag us along again

or


2. Maybe everyone else in the ACC turns them down and we're the last dance partner left unless they wanna go for Toledo to get a piece of that seeet, sweet MACtion

Then we're not looking particularly good with the realignment deadline quickly approaching. Who knows though, maybe the Calgorithm puts in overtime work to make us endearing/polarizing enough to the point where we're considered a brand.

Honestly though the whole downfall of CFB can be traced to one thing, imo, the national championship game/CFP. College football was at it's best when what mattered most was regionalism, rivalries, winning your conference, making a bowl game (and they actually mattered enough for guys to care to play in them), the regular season mattered most but bowl season was a big deal too, and the season ended on New Year's Day with the Rose, Orange, Cotton, and Sugar Bowls. No one will ever convince me otherwise. The obsession to not have a disputed national champion and to find out who was really #1 led to the national championship game (which was bad enough) and now the CFP. In caring about who was #1 we've turned away from what made CFB the greatest sport league on the planet and made the regular season and bowl season meaningless for about 117 out of 132 D1 teams


I totally agree with you. Back then I also made the argument that the quest for a definitive #1 would destroy college football as we knew it.

The old system was so much better.
Regional rivalries drove the regional bowl games.
Regional rivalries drove TV viewership
At the end of the Bowl season there were multiple Winners ( I.e. the winners of their bowl games, their fans, their coaches.). A perfect Win-win-win situation.

For the most part today's winners could change every year of so. So fans of today's losers could have hope ("wait til next year).

Unfortunately too many colleges, fans, coaches and most of all TV got greedy. They wanted a national champion in order to squeeze every drop of money and fame from every CFB season.

I honestly believe that CFB in its past iteration could have continued to flourish even with the NIL and with rational LIMITED player access to the Portal

But NIL and unlimited access to the Portal blew up CFB when added to the insane drive to find a #1. ["Gasoline meet fire".]

Any way that is my two cents.

I think you guys are naive in your nostalgia to blame the championship/playoff. Yes, the old system was better, but the old system broke itself and did so long before the playoff system.

For many years the bowls primarily lived by unwritten rules to get the best matchup they could for their bowl. And by that I mean the best teams to put together the most interesting matchup on the field. That was great.

Then traditions went out the window in exchange for naked, short-term greed. Gone was striving for the best matchups and in was trying to squeeze every last ticket sale and tv dollar. Bowls didn't pick teams by quality of play. They picked teams based on how well their fan base was thought to travel, how much money fans might bring to the local community, what kind of tv draw they would be. By and large that resulted in crappy match ups and Notre Dame playing in bowl games 2 levels above what they deserved because of their huge, nationwide fanbase. The NCAA had to create the specific rule that bowl games couldn't invite teams with losing records because bowl games were perfectly willing to do so if they thought that would earn them an extra dollar.

That greed is what killed college football. The championship/playoff was just a step along the way. When someone decided it was okay to match a 10-1 team against a 6-5 team, the bowl system no longer worked.

The bottom line is, we took the first step on this path the first time a school pulled in a ringer to play in one of its games. We took another step the first time someone decided to televise a game. Fair play and tradition takes a back seat eventually whenever money and power enter the picture.

Frankly, this is a society wide problem. Whether it's politics, business, education, religion, sports, etc. some people will try to get away with whatever they can within the system with no regard for the basic societal agreements we have always had to hold our institutions together, and we have lost the ability to keep those people in line making more and more people think there is no reason for them to behave any differently.
socaliganbear
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Who in the ACC is not plotting for the next round of realignment? Or any school not already in the SEC and B1G? Everyone is exploring their next move.
concordtom
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Bobodeluxe said:

"given academics"

Hahahahahahahahahaha!

Academics mean nothing in the Professional Minor Leagues.


But, but… We're "Cal"!
concordtom
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BearoutEast67 said:

Eventually, there will be only two leagues: Union and Confederacy.


Eventually?
Hell, we've already got it over on OT. Come join us!
concordtom
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golden sloth said:

sycasey said:

wifeisafurd said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

This is interesting stuff. One observation is this framework really doesn't work for basketball. If that sport mattered, you have UConn, Gonzaga, Duke and other elite programs in.conferences. You also lose the concept that academics matter. Then again, TV revenues seem to drive realignment, so this structure starts making sense.

Maybe the need is for football to have a conference structure completely different from all other sports.


Chip Kelly made that point a few years ago and it's a good, logical point and an easy adjustment.

Have conference affiliation for football be separated from all the other sports. The other sports can be regional (thus save a ton on travel), and frees up football to chase that money with the national super conference model (even though I still hate the national conference model).


The ncaa could tackle this, no?

And use relegation and promotion as a pathway for new entrants.
You could create regional divisions (conferences) at the bottom, with perhaps 2-4 national divisions at the top. Successful lower teams could refuse promotion if they just wanted to stay in their regional homes.
concordtom
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GivemTheAxe said:

sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

sycasey said:

GivemTheAxe said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

golden sloth said:

I do wonder what the final end game is for conference realignment is. I can't help but imagine that both the Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the final 8 - 12 big name properties and markets, then implement a system maximizing the SEC and Big 10 payouts and control with only token participation from the remaining conferences and schools. Obviously, the ACC and Big 12 drop to be mid-major level (similar to the Pac).

For the Big 10, I think they eventually expand to a total of 24 schools with four divisions of (6) schools each. In football, you'd play everyone in your division every year and play one school from the other divisions. I think they'd also schedule an SEC - Big 10 challenge where you play two games against the other conference every year (one home, one away). That is ten SEC/Big 10 opponents every season, with two cupcake home games. Each school would have 7 home game and 5 away games. That makes sense to me.

As for the divisions, I'd imagine it would be something along the lines of:

Div 1:
1. Penn State
2. Maryland
3. Rutgers
4. North Carolina
5. Miami
6. TBD

TBD: One of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
They could also take two of the TBDs and push Penn State to Div 2 and Northwestern to Div 3.

Div 2:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern (NW could easily switch will Illinois if needed)

Div 3:
1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Nebraska
6. TBD

TBD: One of Kansas, Utah, Colorado

Div 4:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. TBD
6. TBD

TBD: Two of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah

This assumes, Notre Dame remains independent. If they do, they can choose their division taking either a TBD spot, or moving Northwestern to Division 3. Also assumes the Big 10 can't poach from the SEC.

We are hanging on to a system that no longer works or makes any sense. I do think it is going to evolve to something that makes sense, but right now it is doing so in a haphazard manner that is taking too long.

First of all, let's get acceptance that College football and men's basketball are professional sports leagues now. Second of all, they are two different professional sports leagues. There is really no reason that schools in the same football conference need to also be in the same basketball conference.

College football and basketball are fundamentally different business models. Football is hell expensive. You need 5 times the number of quality players to field a competitive football team than you need in basketball, meaning a lower level team can't get lucky with one or two guys and compete. There is more money making potential in football. Football is more about a whole system of strength and conditioning to develop bodies. A 240 lb player cannot just outskill a 300lb player. As a result, a school like St. Mary's can compete in basketball where even if they wanted to they have no chance to compete in football.

Just discussing football because I think it is more black and white. There are not 40, 50, 60 teams that are financially viable. Pro sports leagues in the US have pretty well settled in around 30 teams, I think there is a good reason for this. Get much beyond that and you spread the product too thin. Also, the disparity between the haves and the have nots is just too great.

The college football organization has been blown up. The NCAA was barely a business organization and it was terrible at it. The SEC and the Big 10 are the de facto major leagues here. They need to join together with business sponsorship and form a league that is an actual private business not related to school administrations or state governments. They need to have a league of 32 or 36 teams. They have the management invite teams to apply and then pick the teams based on long term financial viability and that is it. They form a self contained league and they do not play anybody else. Structure the league similar to the NFL. Similar schedules. Similar playoffs so you don't have this idiotic "I lost two games now I'm out" BS. And It will be best for all concerned. Cut off the dreams of the teams that can't accept that they can never compete so they stop being idiots with their money. Then out of those teams you'll see another league - cheaper to run because they can't afford more - that will form out of the next 32 or 36 teams.

This would also bring more stability with the personnel. The top league will barely recruit high school players because they are too risky and be subject to leaving anyway. They will take only the very cream of the crop out of high school and otherwise hire guys who have proven themselves in the lower leagues. The lower leagues would be made up of young players and experienced players who can't make it in the top leagues.

There would be a lot more stability and competitiveness within leagues. No more 60 point destruction games. Games would be a lot more entertaining with more evenly matched teams. Teams would spend the appropriate amount of money for their level because they wouldn't all be trying to follow a fantasy of getting into a higher level.

The current system is killing midrange teams. It is like watching a car race where a bunch of drivers in Yugo's are burning out their engines with their pedal to the floor, trying to keep up with Porsches.

I honestly think separating the top from the middle will reinvigorate the middle tier allowing them to play competitive games and compete for championships as medium sized frogs in medium sized ponds.





I am not arguing with your reasoning. But to me if there is major shrinkage in the number of viable college teams, it will shrink the available players who can be recruited by the Pros.
Right now there is a very large pool of potential Pro players. Many come out of Podunk Universities.
What happens when that large pool dries up to just 32 or 36 teams.
Remember that A. Rodgers was recruited by Cal of a J.C. because no other school wanted to take a chance on him.
Take away Cal and there would have been no A. Rodgers.
Take away Cal and that would likely dry up J.C. football.
Which schools (4-year or J.C. would be willing to spend money to keep alive College Football if that school has no hope of making its college football program economically feasible.)

I see Pro Football sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the long run.


I think the idea here is that the smaller schools would still recruit those players and give them chances, and if they blew up (like Rodgers) then the top league would get them in the transfer portal.

Heck, star NFL players still got drafted from the I-AA / FCS ranks in the old days too (Jerry Rice, Steve McNair, etc.). The NFL will find their talent wherever it is.

The problem i see with your reply is that it assumes that smaller schools would keep their College Football programs. Sustaining a college football program costs a ton of money (unlike MBB, WBB, college baseball).
If the TV money is paid to the top 32-36 teams, we will see more and more mid-level and lower level schools closing down their College Football programs. That will reduce the vast pool of college football players who currently play College Football. (There will be an ever shrinking pool of available college football players.)

It will also reduce the number of college football coaches who are available. Remember that J. Harbaugh got his start coaching the University of San Diego (i.e. NOT San Diego State). Then he was hired straight into the HC job at Stanford.

Maybe the NFL will come to its senses and finance the creation of Minor League Football.



If English football is the model, then even there the 2nd and 3rd tier leagues still have TV deals and money paid out, they just get less of it. Which is not too far off from what we have now, with the B1G and SEC money compared to the ACC and Big 12, compared to the G5 leagues and so forth.

The ACC report on Cal earlier this year (before the projections for the upcoming season) came to the conclusion that What happened to Cal during the past 12 months are an object lesson as what will happen to the mid-tier teams.

Cal was able to recruit and field a credible team for 2024. However Cal was not able to retain that team because of the Portal and the NIL Cal did not have the money to do so. Unless Cal was able to get sufficient big donors to "play with the Big Boys", Cal would be forever stuck in a Catch-22 situation. "It cannot improve because it does not have enough money. It can not get enough money until it can improve."


I don't think Cal will get the Big Money you allude to even if we win. It's not our culture, we have other more important lives beyond Saturday Football.
sycasey
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Cal's NIL has actually been fairly competitive. The real changes that need to happen are under the hood: having an athletic department that actually supports the football team rather than hamstring it, a coaching staff that actually maximizes the talent given to it, an administration that actually gives a s*** about winning, etc.

Recent developments with Rivera's hire and Knowlton's departure have been encouraging, but is it happening quickly enough? Will it continue? Or will Cal once again get squirrelly about being a real football school, like they did with Snyder and Tedford? I don't know.
oski003
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Anarchistbear said:

Big is a much better fit for UNC given academics ,other sports . Plus the Big would love a footprint south of Maryland


Isn't UNC the school that athletes didn't get in trouble for taking fake classes at because these fake classes were available for all students?
calumnus
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sycasey said:

Cal's NIL has actually been fairly competitive. The real changes that need to happen are under the hood: having an athletic department that actually supports the football team rather than hamstring it, a coaching staff that actually maximizes the talent given to it, an administration that actually gives a s*** about winning, etc.

Recent developments with Rivera's hire and Knowlton's departure have been encouraging, but is it happening quickly enough? Will it continue? Or will Cal once again get squirrelly about being a real football school, like they did with Snyder and Tedford? I don't know.

We win with good coaches like White, Snyder and first half Tedford. Letting Snyder go was "a lack of commitment" to football. You can't say that about Tedford. We matched other offers. We built him the most expensive football complex in college. Academic standards were so loose we almost got sanctioned. Tedford is the one who didn't learn how to go from "founder" control freak work-a-holic to being an effective manager of an organization that hires and delegates and it almost killed him. He needed a break. We just need to hire another good coach, especially a good fit for Berkeley, and if he is successful, keep him.

Our NIL was competitive delivering Top 20 Portal classes in 2023 and 2024 when only alumni/boosters could pay NIL. We have one of the wealthiest alumni bases especially compared to schools like Alabama, LSU, Nebraska….However, under the House Settlement P4 schools themselves can spend up to $20 million a year from their media and other revenues on NIL. Cal has the lowest media and other revenues of any P4 school (with SMU and Stanford who are wealthy private schools with other resources). Last year and this year was our window, especially given the ease of the schedules. I think Lyons waiting a year to get rid of Knowlton and a year and a half to bring in Rivera and then only make him GM is just wasting our window of opportunity. The schedule gets tougher next year and the Portal market will be much tougher. Plus the campus will be under tremendous financial pressure due to Federal cuts in education and research.

We just have to hope I guess.
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