https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/football/ncaa-football-games/california-@-oregon-state-34365317
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
Oregon State favored by 2.5 over Cal
13,169 Views |
145 Replies |
Last: 5 days ago by KoreAmBear
If we lose to Oregon State I'm playing this song on repeat.
Easy money!
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
Cal football 2025: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
HearstMining said:
Cal football 2025: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
There might be a short field goal at the end of the game……..
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
oskidunker said:HearstMining said:
Cal football 2025: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
There might be a short field goal at the end of the game……..
You mean a missed short field goal attempt by Cal at the end of the game?
Bearly Clad said:
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
I doubt Wilcox makes it to the end of the season if we start off 1-5. Most of our winnable games are in the first half of the schedule
Golden One said:oskidunker said:HearstMining said:
Cal football 2025: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma
There might be a short field goal at the end of the game……..
You mean a missed short field goal attempt by Cal at the end of the game?
That would be he ultimate f uckla wouldnt it? Wilcoxian logic. Play conservative always when ahead
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
Wow. Underdogs to OSU. Have we really overestimated the talent we have in this team?
Oui.
I got the Bears and 2.5 pts and am wagering these t shirts and one meme coin.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
“I love Cal deeply. What are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
“I love Cal deeply. What are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
bluehenbear said:
Wow. Underdogs to OSU. Have we really overestimated the talent we have in this team?
How much talent do you think we have on this team? Mostly new guys from lower levels or from higher levels that didn't play much. Rating services have them ranked far lower than the guys that left, Practices have been closed. How can you even estimate our talent much less overestimate it?
One factor in the spread might be the fact it is both team's first game but OSU will be starting an experienced 4 star transfer QB, Maalik Murphy, originally a 4 star Elite 11 signed by Texas out of Inglewood, CA (Serra High in Gardena where he won the CIF 1-A Championship). Murphy was the starting QB for Duke last year where he threw for 2,933 yards and a Duke record 26 TDs. He is a big guy (6'5" 230) and doesn't run, but was rarely sacked last year. Whether Cal can get a pass rush going and put pressure on him will be a big factor.
JB was a Chieftain said:Bearly Clad said:
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
I doubt Wilcox makes it to the end of the season if we start off 1-5. Most of our winnable games are in the first half of the schedule
I doubt that Wilcox makes it to Halloween if he starts out 1-4
Boo!
Bearly Clad said:
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
Yeah I'm a little confused by this too. Certainly Cal COULD lose this game, but I'm not sure OSU should be favored against any P5 team.
Bobodeluxe said:
Boo!
I blame Boo!
sycasey said:Bearly Clad said:
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
Yeah I'm a little confused by this too. Certainly Cal COULD lose this game, but I'm not sure OSU should be favored against any P5 team.
If we lose to the Beavers, it tells me all the staffing changes and money being spent on football were not enough and that we will have to do even more to be competitive. I hope this is not the case and that we best the Beavers.
Go Bears!
Wilcox is 18-4 in non conference play, as well as 5-3 as an underdog. Bears in 4.
SonomanA1 said:sycasey said:Bearly Clad said:
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
Yeah I'm a little confused by this too. Certainly Cal COULD lose this game, but I'm not sure OSU should be favored against any P5 team.
If we lose to the Beavers, it tells me all the staffing changes and money being spent on football were not enough and that we will have to do even more to be competitive. I hope this is not the case and that we beat the Beavers.
Go Bears!
hermosabear9 said:
Wilcox is 18-4 in non conference play, as well as 5-3 as an underdog. Bears in 4.
To your point
5-2 in OOC road games
1. My long time Bear Fan brain thinks 2.5 for OSU is, well not ridiculous but certainly not reasonable - like "come on." If we were home it would probably be 2.5 in our favor and I would take that spread any day.
2. On the other hand, we got a pretty low reputation of consistently falling short. This seasons loss of key personnel. coaching switcheroos and awkward administration bungles can be striking to the naked eye. Another summer of even more piss poor "ratings" by the CFB media machines certainly can make the average CFB fan pass on us with a knowing chuckle.
3. But, the sports betting industry does figure in aspects, not on paper, to attract as much an even spread of $'s between both teams and 2.5 probably helps that.
4. I wonder how the "sharps" are going to look at this game by kick off.
2. On the other hand, we got a pretty low reputation of consistently falling short. This seasons loss of key personnel. coaching switcheroos and awkward administration bungles can be striking to the naked eye. Another summer of even more piss poor "ratings" by the CFB media machines certainly can make the average CFB fan pass on us with a knowing chuckle.
3. But, the sports betting industry does figure in aspects, not on paper, to attract as much an even spread of $'s between both teams and 2.5 probably helps that.
4. I wonder how the "sharps" are going to look at this game by kick off.
Reser Stadium, or whatever it might be called now, has been a house of horrors for Cal. However, I think they can more than match the talent level on the field. Losing Mendoza, Endries, the defensive backfield, and the entire RB room is likely driving this point spread. This team is a bigger unknown than usual.
sycasey said:Bearly Clad said:
I get that we lost a lot of players and it's on the road but OSU lost a ton of players too and we beat them 44-7 last year. If we lose this game it's portending a nightmare season, no bowl game, and cleaning house at the end of the year
Yeah I'm a little confused by this too. Certainly Cal COULD lose this game, but I'm not sure OSU should be favored against any P5 team.
If I were someone who bets a lot of games and say had a strategy of selecting the 10 best games to bet each week in order to spread my risk, I would bet Cal as one of my 10 because I think with the given information I'd be confident they beat the spread 7 or 8 times out of 10. That said what gives me pause is that I think at least 50% of a game is the QB and they have a proven, experienced, quality QB and we don't.
Best case, Brown is a very good QB who has trained in a top program, and just hasn't seen the field because there have been great options ahead of him. If so, 8 or 9 wins is looking pretty good.
Worst case, Brown just isn't very good. If so, start raising the money for the buyout because things will go downhill fast.
I think either possibility and everything in between is very possible.
Brown is extremely likely to start.
Sagopolutele is a true frosh, and even if he is everything we hope for, it is a lot to ask a true frosh to walk in and be great game one.
I've seen enough times that Cal thought they had prospects at QB to step in and we didn't, so I'm frankly conservative when assuming the QB position is going to be buttoned up. And if it isn't buttoned up, that is trouble.
Take away the QB position and Cal should win by 30. I would say if Cal comes with mediocre QB play and the coaches don't mess it up, Cal should still win by 14-20. We had better players to start with and we added better players than they did, not including the immediate QB prospects.
For those doubting Oskies.......
Wilcox took his first Cal team into North Carolina and defeated the Tar Heels. And that was with a brand new QB (Bowers) and a totally green offensive line. Our good friend GooBear can advise if that was his son's first start.......
Wilcox took his first Cal team into North Carolina and defeated the Tar Heels. And that was with a brand new QB (Bowers) and a totally green offensive line. Our good friend GooBear can advise if that was his son's first start.......
sefton said:
1. My long time Bear Fan brain thinks 2.5 for OSU is, well not ridiculous but certainly not reasonable - like "come on." If we were home it would probably be 2.5 in our favor and I would take that spread any day.
2. On the other hand, we got a pretty low reputation of consistently falling short. This seasons loss of key personnel. coaching switcheroos and awkward administration bungles can be striking to the naked eye. Another summer of even more piss poor "ratings" by the CFB media machines certainly can make the average CFB fan pass on us with a knowing chuckle.
3. But, the sports betting industry does figure in aspects, not on paper, to attract as much an even spread of $'s between both teams and 2.5 probably helps that.
4. I wonder how the "sharps" are going to look at this game by kick off.
Since i've been at Cal, we've been pretty lights out OOC. Of course, OOC is a different thing now and my brain is resisting throwing OSU into that bucket.
Bookies don't have the resources to evaluate every team 100% before the season. They didn't before the portal, and *really* don't now. I agree w/ you that, given that its unlikely anyone took a real hard look at our roster turnover, its reasonable to be 2.5 point dogs (basically a coin flip on a neutral field) to OSU after losing 90% of the production from an at best inconsistent offense.
If camp was open, we'd probably have a much better idea about what the line 'should' be, but we don't even have that this year.
Ultimately no one has any clue about how the team will look. I do think Wilcox seems confident (for him), and S&C improvement and sheer # of OL bodies seem to be positive indicators.
bencgilmore said:sefton said:
1. My long time Bear Fan brain thinks 2.5 for OSU is, well not ridiculous but certainly not reasonable - like "come on." If we were home it would probably be 2.5 in our favor and I would take that spread any day.
2. On the other hand, we got a pretty low reputation of consistently falling short. This seasons loss of key personnel. coaching switcheroos and awkward administration bungles can be striking to the naked eye. Another summer of even more piss poor "ratings" by the CFB media machines certainly can make the average CFB fan pass on us with a knowing chuckle.
3. But, the sports betting industry does figure in aspects, not on paper, to attract as much an even spread of $'s between both teams and 2.5 probably helps that.
4. I wonder how the "sharps" are going to look at this game by kick off.
Since i've been at Cal, we've been pretty lights out OOC. Of course, OOC is a different thing now and my brain is resisting throwing OSU into that bucket.
Bookies don't have the resources to evaluate every team 100% before the season. They didn't before the portal, and *really* don't now. I agree w/ you that, given that its unlikely anyone took a real hard look at our roster turnover, its reasonable to be 2.5 point dogs (basically a coin flip on a neutral field) to OSU after losing 90% of the production from an at best inconsistent offense.
If camp was open, we'd probably have a much better idea about what the line 'should' be, but we don't even have that this year.
Ultimately no one has any clue about how the team will look. I do think Wilcox seems confident (for him), and S&C improvement and sheer # of OL bodies seem to be positive indicators.
Better Talent wins games.
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
What scares me about this game is that it is virtually a must-win for us because it's a game that is penned in as a win if we are to get to an 8-4 season (even 7-5). However, I'm not sure that is a big motivator for the players ("We GOTTA win this: If we don't, we're REALLY gonna suck this year!")
But for the Beavs, it is a game that has been circled in orange on their calendar for months. A lot of folks in the Beaver Football Community still have it in for us about the Pac issue (ridiculous, but they needed somebody to blame). The environment is gonna be "unfriendly".
If I were betting, I'd bet on Cal to win, but a loss wouldn't be shocking. Depressing, but not shocking.
The differential in QB experience, with virtually none for us in a season opener has got to be the main factor in that spread. If this game were in mid-Spetember or October we would have been favored.
Has anyone studied who they lost from last years team and gained?
The ESPNBet line is Oregon State -3, so there are at least two oddsmakers with a similar view of this game at the moment.
Yes, our Bears have an all-new set of running backs that is perceived to be not on the level of last season's group. And, the coaches loudly advertised how much uncertainty they have at QB by bringing two QBs, neither of whom have played at Cal before, to ACC media days. So what the oddsmakers see is that either freshman JKS will start vs Oregon State, or Brown might start but hasn't shown the coaches enough separation from JKS to be declared the likely starter at this point. That is a giant red flag.
The only thing puzzling about the spread is that Oregon State was hideously bad last season and would have to be vastly improved to warrant being favored against anyone, even a Cal team that is full of question marks.
Yes, our Bears have an all-new set of running backs that is perceived to be not on the level of last season's group. And, the coaches loudly advertised how much uncertainty they have at QB by bringing two QBs, neither of whom have played at Cal before, to ACC media days. So what the oddsmakers see is that either freshman JKS will start vs Oregon State, or Brown might start but hasn't shown the coaches enough separation from JKS to be declared the likely starter at this point. That is a giant red flag.
The only thing puzzling about the spread is that Oregon State was hideously bad last season and would have to be vastly improved to warrant being favored against anyone, even a Cal team that is full of question marks.
I don't think this is the team's mentality at all. I think they expect to win by two scores, and that's (at least) what they're going to do. Seriously considering teasing this spread to Cal -6. We aren't messing around this year.Big C said:
What scares me about this game is that it is virtually a must-win for us because it's a game that is penned in as a win if we are to get to an 8-4 season (even 7-5). However, I'm not sure that is a big motivator for the players ("We GOTTA win this: If we don't, we're REALLY gonna suck this year!")
But for the Beavs, it is a game that has been circled in orange on their calendar for months. A lot of folks in the Beaver Football Community still have it in for us about the Pac issue (ridiculous, but they needed somebody to blame). The environment is gonna be "unfriendly".
If I were betting, I'd bet on Cal to win, but a loss wouldn't be shocking. Depressing, but not shocking.
BearSD said:
The only thing puzzling about the spread is that Oregon State was hideously bad last season and would have to be vastly improved to warrant being favored against anyone, even a Cal team that is full of question marks.
That's my thinking. How much better is Oregon State going to be than the 5-7 team that crashed out with a 1-6 finish last season, including a 44-7 loss in Berkeley? They have a new QB but is that the only improvement?
I'm not saying Cal is going to be great, but even a mediocre P4 team can beat a bad Mountain West team pretty handily.
Cal88 said:
The differential in QB experience, with virtually none for us in a season opener has got to be the main factor in that spread. If this game were in mid-Spetember or October we would have been favored.
Yup
PAC9. Plus 2.
Featured Stories
See All
Bear Insider Video: Cal CB Brent Austin
by Jim McGill
Wilcox Names Starting QB, Talks Developing Depth Chart
by Bear Insider
Cal Football To Host 2025 Fan Day
by Cal Athletics