Wilcox Firing (hypothetical)

2,417 Views | 43 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by sycasey
SouthKBear
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If I were Ron with this bye week, I would think this would be a great time to terminate Wilcox. Gives team two weeks to adjust and figure out the future going forward for the remaining of the season. And like Andrew luck, elevate one of the former head coaches to finish the season and make sure they know it's only for this season. I would also be speaking to an east coast coach (Sweeney, day, etc for possible jobs. They will undoubtably be fired here soon.

I would avoid a nfl coach that has ent been in college coaching since NIL and portal change, as they don't know the dynamic of it.

But I'm not Ron. I'm just a dreamer. So I'll go back to sleep now.
DoubtfulBear
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If he was going to get fired, it would've happened by now. No way it would drag out until the bye week
bencgilmore
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We're 4-2. Anyone calling for a firing now is missing the point on multiple levels.

Only possible scenario i see a mid-season firing is a meltdown against UNC. Yeah, we'd still be 4-3, but getting to 6 or 7 would look pretty much impossible. And even 7 is supposedly not good enough this year.

Even then it's probably pretty unlikely though.

The single most important thing is keeping jks. If Ron rushes things that could prove difficult

SouthKBear
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Ron said he wanted improvement. This is not it. Ron terminating shows his word and commitment to that. This needs to happen now, regardless of win column. It should be about competitive play, improvement, fixing past repetitive faults, and player development. This won't happen, but needs too. We are basically in ground hogs day every year. Will lose JKs most likely, we hope not, but we all know the story.
DoubtfulBear
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JKS would be a fool to stay. He only needs to look at Mendoza to see what the possibilities are even if he doesn't join a blue blood
Strykur
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bencgilmore said:

The single most important thing is keeping jks. If Ron rushes things that could prove difficult

If Ron waits and boots Wilcox at the end of the season the winter portal opens without any coaching candidates in the mix and then everybody walks
Golden One
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JKS is more likely to stay if Wilcox is fired.
MrGPAC
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The best path to firing Wilcox after the season and keeping JKS is to promote Rolovich to head coach.

At this point you fall into one of two camps:

Camp 1) You think Wilcox can get us to a spot that is good enough to get us into the Big10 in the next round of realignment. That means more wins and more importantly more eyeballs on Cal football.

Camp 2) You do not think Wilcox will get us to a spot that is good enough to get us into the Big10 in the next round of realignment.

If you are still in camp 1 I'm going to have to respectfully disagree. After letting the team flounder with no emotional leader 2 of the last 3 weeks with loss margins much larger than the disparity of talent between the two teams I cannot give him any benefit of the doubt. Further, even at its peak, Wilcox brand of football is kind of boring. He wants defensive slugfests that minimize the scoring and number of possessions each team gets. Slow methodical drives may very well be a good recipe to get wins...but its not a great one to get eyeballs which is what we need.

For those in Camp 2 it seems to me that the best action is to cut ties ASAP. We gain absolutely nothing waiting to fire him. The money is already spent, and interim coaches don't typically get large salary increases (someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here). We also have an added bonus of getting a free try out for Rolovich. If he can work some magic then great we have a coaching hire lined up. If not? We have more knowledge about a potential candidate.

Bonus points: We get to start trying to find a coach asap.

We are at the point where we have to decide if we want to have a major football program post 2030. We either buckle down and do what it takes to get into a super league (big10 being most likely avenue), or we accept that we will no longer have a major football program and will have to pick up the pieces. We have to invest one way or the other at this point and time is not on our side.
bencgilmore
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DoubtfulBear said:

JKS would be a fool to stay. He only needs to look at Mendoza to see what the possibilities are even if he doesn't join a blue blood


Posts like this should auto qualify you for a Prozac prescription

Golden One said:

JKS is more likely to stay if Wilcox is fired.


Maybe. Weird that I think our freshman qb should at least get some input on it, but here we are.
bencgilmore
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Would be very helpful if said head coach happened to come with a couple really good receivers.

... Which is something that happens these days
TedfordTheGreat
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MrGPAC said:

The best path to firing Wilcox after the season and keeping JKS is to promote Rolovich to head coach.

At this point you fall into one of two camps:

Camp 1) You think Wilcox can get us to a spot that is good enough to get us into the Big10 in the next round of realignment. That means more wins and more importantly more eyeballs on Cal football.

Camp 2) You do not think Wilcox will get us to a spot that is good enough to get us into the Big10 in the next round of realignment.

If you are still in camp 1 I'm going to have to respectfully disagree. After letting the team flounder with no emotional leader 2 of the last 3 weeks with loss margins much larger than the disparity of talent between the two teams I cannot give him any benefit of the doubt. Further, even at its peak, Wilcox brand of football is kind of boring. He wants defensive slugfests that minimize the scoring and number of possessions each team gets. Slow methodical drives may very well be a good recipe to get wins...but its not a great one to get eyeballs which is what we need.

For those in Camp 2 it seems to me that the best action is to cut ties ASAP. We gain absolutely nothing waiting to fire him. The money is already spent, and interim coaches don't typically get large salary increases (someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here). We also have an added bonus of getting a free try out for Rolovich. If he can work some magic then great we have a coaching hire lined up. If not? We have more knowledge about a potential candidate.

Bonus points: We get to start trying to find a coach asap.

We are at the point where we have to decide if we want to have a major football program post 2030. We either buckle down and do what it takes to get into a super league (big10 being most likely avenue), or we accept that we will no longer have a major football program and will have to pick up the pieces. We have to invest one way or the other at this point and time is not on our side.

who is in camp 1 still?

I had hope as recently as last year, then we lost to FSU, then to Pitt, then to NC State, then i realized yet again Wilcox is not the guy. All the excuses of playing UW, UO, USC every year went out the window last year.

Then this year i bought in the hype machine again. We had an even easier schedule than last year, our easiest schedule in perhaps 3 decades. Then he immediately squashed it against SDSU. NIU lost to SDSU 3-6, we lose 0-35. U telling me we have less talent than NIU?

He can't recruit, he cant retain talent, he has no rolodex, he has no charisma, worst of all, he can't coach his team and get them to perform consistently.

Wilcox consistently coaches DOWN to the level of our competition. If we are in the MWC/Pac12 we will lose to OSU and WSU.
If anyone is in camp 1, they are delusional
Econ141
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Agreed - at this point the writing is on the wall. He'd need to have a miraculous run-the -table type of scenario that would change minds but at that point, he might as well jump to a new gig.

So better start shopping for coaching now and the best way to garner interest is to let people know it is open!
01Bear
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bencgilmore said:

We're 4-2. Anyone calling for a firing now is missing the point on multiple levels.

Only possible scenario i see a mid-season firing is a meltdown against UNC. Yeah, we'd still be 4-3, but getting to 6 or 7 would look pretty much impossible. And even 7 is supposedly not good enough this year.

Even then it's probably pretty unlikely though.

The single most important thing is keeping jks. If Ron rushes things that could prove difficult



So when's a good time to call for Wilsux to be fired? After the season, when the portal opens? So Cal risks losing its recruits and being able to bring in talented players from the portal due to not having a head coach (and coaching staff) in place? During Spring, when Cal should be using that time to get its players used to the new coach's playbook, but instead opens another door for players to exit Cal (thanks to the rule that players can transfer within 30 days of a coach's termination)? During Summer? At the beginning of the next season?

At the end of the day, the "Cal can't fire Wilsux now because [reasons]" camp are really just arguing for more of the same. They really don't think Wilsux should be fired, only they're too cowardly to admit it. Instead, they hide behind the argument that "the timing is bad" or some other ridiculous reason.

Yes, there's merit to the idea that Cal can't afford to pay $15+ million to Wilsux and also pay another high quality HC. But that's not a good reason not to fire Wilsux. Wilsux is going to get paid either way, so that's a sunk cost.

The question is whether the new HC will be able to get the team to play well enough to (1) increase ticket sales (and thus help pay for his salary) and (2) help Cal survive the next conference realignment (and end up in the big boy college power football club). Based on his performance to date, it is abundantly clear that Wilsux is incapable of either. It's time to find someone who can.

pingpong2
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bencgilmore said:

We're 4-2. Anyone calling for a firing now is missing the point on multiple levels.

Only possible scenario i see a mid-season firing is a meltdown against UNC. Yeah, we'd still be 4-3, but getting to 6 or 7 would look pretty much impossible. And even 7 is supposedly not good enough this year.

Even then it's probably pretty unlikely though.

The single most important thing is keeping jks. If Ron rushes things that could prove difficult




We're 4-2 despite Wilcox, not because of him. We barely beat BC and got blown out by powerhouse SDSU and Duke. Our only good win was again Minnesota; Oregon State and Texas Southern we would have beaten even if we let the players coach themselves.
BearlyCareAnymore
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bencgilmore said:

DoubtfulBear said:

JKS would be a fool to stay. He only needs to look at Mendoza to see what the possibilities are even if he doesn't join a blue blood


Posts like this should auto qualify you for a Prozac prescription

Golden One said:

JKS is more likely to stay if Wilcox is fired.


Maybe. Weird that I think our freshman qb should at least get some input on it, but here we are.

A good coach and a mediocre QB will be more valuable than a mediocre coach and JKS. JKS will do what he does. Frankly, he will only be here as a Junior if we have turned things around by his sophomore year. We can't let JKS' situation dictate our next 5 years of coaching.
Joegeo
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Nothing is stopping Ron from conducting back channel discussion with agents to see what is the level of coach who will take the Cal job versus those who want to see what options are avaliable.

Right now with all the openings, I don't think Cal will be the number 1 choice, so there is little incentive to start the search now and hope to snipe someone because OKC/Arkansas will be ahead of you anyway.
DoubtfulBear
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bencgilmore said:

DoubtfulBear said:

JKS would be a fool to stay. He only needs to look at Mendoza to see what the possibilities are even if he doesn't join a blue blood


Posts like this should auto qualify you for a Prozac prescription


Being a Wilcox fan despite the last 9 years is sufficient evidence to be committed to an insane asylum
Rushinbear
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Econ141 said:

Agreed - at this point the writing is on the wall. He'd need to have a miraculous run-the -table type of scenario that would change minds but at that point, he might as well jump to a new gig.

So better start shopping for coaching now and the best way to garner interest is to let people know it is open!

Ron knows everyone in the business. Guaranteed he has a shopping list and probably 2 or 3 who have made tentative commitments, should he pull the string. He also now knows enough about Harsin and Rolo. Does he have the guts or will he play it like a bureaucrat?
Strykur
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Rushinbear said:

Econ141 said:

Agreed - at this point the writing is on the wall. He'd need to have a miraculous run-the -table type of scenario that would change minds but at that point, he might as well jump to a new gig.

So better start shopping for coaching now and the best way to garner interest is to let people know it is open!

Ron knows everyone in the business. Guaranteed he has a shopping list and probably 2 or 3 who have made tentative commitments, should he pull the string. He also now knows enough about Harsin and Rolo. Does he have the guts or will he play it like a bureaucrat?

If the latter was the case, why did he even take the GM job
Golden One
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MrGPAC said:

The best path to firing Wilcox after the season and keeping JKS is to promote Rolovich to head coach.

At this point you fall into one of two camps:

Camp 1) You think Wilcox can get us to a spot that is good enough to get us into the Big10 in the next round of realignment. That means more wins and more importantly more eyeballs on Cal football.

Camp 2) You do not think Wilcox will get us to a spot that is good enough to get us into the Big10 in the next round of realignment.

If you are still in camp 1 I'm going to have to respectfully disagree. After letting the team flounder with no emotional leader 2 of the last 3 weeks with loss margins much larger than the disparity of talent between the two teams I cannot give him any benefit of the doubt. Further, even at its peak, Wilcox brand of football is kind of boring. He wants defensive slugfests that minimize the scoring and number of possessions each team gets. Slow methodical drives may very well be a good recipe to get wins...but its not a great one to get eyeballs which is what we need.

For those in Camp 2 it seems to me that the best action is to cut ties ASAP. We gain absolutely nothing waiting to fire him. The money is already spent, and interim coaches don't typically get large salary increases (someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here). We also have an added bonus of getting a free try out for Rolovich. If he can work some magic then great we have a coaching hire lined up. If not? We have more knowledge about a potential candidate.

Bonus points: We get to start trying to find a coach asap.

We are at the point where we have to decide if we want to have a major football program post 2030. We either buckle down and do what it takes to get into a super league (big10 being most likely avenue), or we accept that we will no longer have a major football program and will have to pick up the pieces. We have to invest one way or the other at this point and time is not on our side.

I'm with you 100%. After 8.5 years of futility, it's abundantly clear that Wilcox is not the answer. Our football program has shown virtually no improvement over that time period. Enough is enough. The time to end this madness is NOW.
TonyTiger
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SouthKBear said:

If I were Ron with this bye week, I would think this would be a great time to terminate Wilcox. Gives team two weeks to adjust and figure out the future going forward for the remaining of the season. And like Andrew luck, elevate one of the former head coaches to finish the season and make sure they know it's only for this season. I would also be speaking to an east coast coach (Sweeney, day, etc for possible jobs. They will undoubtably be fired here soon.

I would avoid a nfl coach that has ent been in college coaching since NIL and portal change, as they don't know the dynamic of it.

But I'm not Ron. I'm just a dreamer. So I'll go back to sleep now.

Rolovich - Real Simple.
TedfordTheGreat
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the biggest challenge here is that we are 4-2

if we somehow luck into 6-2 (which, let's face it, is 50/50 but a conceivable outcome), wilcox's seat will cool again

then if we win the big game and its another "wait it out" type season to continue to wait for the buyout to drop. i dont ever root for Cal to lose but we are in a tough bind by winning those games against minnesota and boston college
sycasey
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Wilcox is not being fired most likely because there is not the money available to buy him out. If anyone wants to write a $14 million check then maybe we can make it happen now.
Strykur
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sycasey said:

Wilcox is not being fired most likely because there is not the money available to buy him out. If anyone wants to write a $14 million check then maybe we can make it happen now.
Factor in how much JKS is worth to this program, that check becomes easy to cut
AXLBear
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I got news for you. Berkeley is not a attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.
Golden One
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AXLBear said:

I got news for you. Berkeley is not a attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.

It's hard to get much worse. About the only teams we can beat are the Oregon States and the TSU's of the world along with an occasional Minnesota and Boston College type--in other worlds, the dregs of college football.
socaltownie
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AXLBear said:

I got news for you. Berkeley is not a attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.

Good point. A key part of the RR effort would be to work on addressing that. I assume that 1) there is truth to how awful the job is and so working as many things as possible from feedback and 2) ensuring that the coaching "fraternity" is aware of changes that address sins of the past.

That is the STRONG upside of hiring a coach for this role.

But you know what I am starting to muse about....I wonder if Saban would like to show it really is Nick and that he can win at a place like Cal ;-)
TonyTiger
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Ron is missing the point, if we keep Wilcox and lose JKS This will cost us over a $billion over the next 100 years. We will never recover from this. The athletic department of the entre university could be about to sink to unknow depths. Football rules the university and to let it sink is to let the university sink.

And its possible that Ron would be the one forever known to have dropped the ball when he simply could of done something, anything yet he has done nothing.

Have we even explored the university getting loan for $15 million, Its that serious.. I know that sounds insane but this situation is insane. we have to stop talking and act and if Ron wont then we get someone who will act. If we cant convince Ron lets convince his boss to act. This is not like past coaching situations.

THIS IS IT!!!

Believe me, if we screw this up, were lost. Doesn't this even feel like that? Were on the Titanic?
Why go down with the ship and that ship is you know who?

As will all of our sports programs as Wilcox will be on an island somewhere earning 20%.
MrGPAC
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The money on Wilcox is already spent and does not matter one way or another.

The question is where do we get money to pay the replacement. If that replacement is 1 million a year then the cost to Cal Football is NOT 15 million, its 3 million.

If that replacement is 10 million a year then that price is NOT 15 million its 30 million.

With that in mind the question is who do we want to replace Wilcox, how much will they cost, and can we raise that much money? If we want to lure Saban out of retirement we need a LOT of $$$$$$. If we want to promote a first time head coach with an incentive based contract that can end up being a lot of money then maybe we can get someone a little cheaper, at least during the overlap years where we are still paying Wilcox.

Who Rivera is looking to hire next and in what salary range is going to be a huge driver as to when we can "afford" to fire Wilcox.

And none of that even begins to get into the question of the cost of continued mediocrity and the very existence of Cal football in the not too distant future.
Bobodeluxe
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Golden One said:

AXLBear said:

I got news for you. Berkeley is not a attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.

It's hard to get much worse. About the only teams we can beat are the Oregon States and the TSU's of the world along with an occasional Minnesota and Boston College type--in other worlds, the dregs of college football.

Look out for stu soon enough.
Bobodeluxe
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socaltownie said:

AXLBear said:

I got news for you. Berkeley is not a attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.

Good point. A key part of the RR effort would be to work on addressing that. I assume that 1) there is truth to how awful the job is and so working as many things as possible from feedback and 2)- ensuring that the coaching "fraternity" is aware of changes that address sins of the past.

That is the STRONG upside of hiring a coach for this role.

But you know what I am starting to muse about....I wonder if Saban would like to show it really is Nick and that he can win at a place like Cal ;-)

Or bellyache after a week from Friday?(when he becomes available)
CNHTH
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AXLBear said:

I got news for you. Berkeley is not an attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.

Okay I was careful what I wished for. I want the longest tenured coach in cal football history who also has the worst conference record in cal football history fired.

As for Cal not being an attractive job for someone "better" than Wilmoe?

Ummm…
CJ Anderson = better than Wilmoe and would take less
Desean Jackson = better than Wilmoe and would take less
Marshawn = better than Wilmoe and would take less
Burl Toler = better than Wilmoe and would take less
AT = better than Wilmoe and would take less
Tosh Lupoi = better than Wilmoe, would take less, and would assure us rational bears that we would never have to deal with apathetic old blues ever again.

There it's solved fire the guy who lured Judas to udubb (hint it wasn't Sark it was Wilmoe since he knew he sucked balls at recruiting and would be exposed as a fraud at udubb); hire Judas and show forgiveness; and win lots of football games.
annarborbear
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I think the only real option is for Ron to take over the team and coach it for the next three years. His reputation as a coach in the NFL should attract recruits. He can also work for very little extra money given his unique loyalty to the University. And if he can take us to the next level that we need, we can even rename the stadium after him.
Fred Bear
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AXLBear said:

I got news for you. Berkeley is not a attractive job in the football world. We are looking for at best a smaller no name up-and-comer or an old retread. Just because we fire Wilcox doesn't mean we're going to get better. Be careful what you wish for.

I got news for you. Simping for a losing football head football coach that has consistently lost for years is a weak look.
Fred Bear
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annarborbear said:

I think the only real option is for Ron to take over the team and coach it for the next three years. His reputation as a coach in the NFL should attract recruits. He can also work for very little extra money given his unique loyalty to the University. And if he can take us to the next level that we need, we can even rename the stadium after him.

Shouldn't the fact that one of the most successful coaches in NFL history is tanking at UNC give people pause at assuming that an NFL coach alum with far less success is gonna take over a college program and be good at it. College coaching requires a completely different skill set than NFL coaching and it's a lot of work and a lot of road miles talking to 18 year olds and trying to get them to go to your school.

A lot of older coaches don't have the energy for that and there's nothing wrong with that.
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