NYT/The Athletic: Interesting article on parity and coach firing in college football

1,197 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by concordtom
Bearspot
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Interesting article in The Athletic today re: new parity and coach firing/hiring in college football as a result of effects created by the transfer portal and NIL. It is a topic that sebastabear has been talking about here for a while now in relation to Cal. Article shows how this is affecting old bluebloods and recent up-and-comers like Vandy and Indiana.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6741983/2025/10/23/college-football-coach-firings-success/
sycasey
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This is exactly the issue I saw emerging with a possible "super league." The programs that are accustomed to winning 9+ games every year won't be able to do that anymore if they keep inviting more top programs into their conferences.
Bobodeluxe
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The major leagues seem to be surviving with .500 teams in their playoffs.
Cal88
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What's happening here is that the bottom feeders from the top 2 conferences now have big budgets, and are one good coaching hire away from putting top teams together, as was done by Indiana and Vandy.

You're going to see HC salaries rise towards NFL levels, $15M+.
concordtom
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Bobodeluxe said:

The major leagues seem to be surviving with .500 teams in their playoffs.


Network managers see that they can make more viewership, more money, by concentrating hype on select programs which they own the rights of.

Conferences are colluding with networks to aggregate this attention. And that is the source of their power.

They use this power to control the rankings and the playoff selections.

It's all about grabbing as much as possible, oligopoly style.
BearlyCareAnymore
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concordtom said:

Bobodeluxe said:

The major leagues seem to be surviving with .500 teams in their playoffs.


Network managers see that they can make more viewership, more money, by concentrating hype on select programs which they own the rights of.

Conferences are colluding with networks to aggregate this attention. And that is the source of their power.

They use this power to control the rankings and the playoff selections.

It's all about grabbing as much as possible, oligopoly style.

If the NFL had 130 teams and only 30 of them ever had a chance to win or make money, they would cut 100 teams.

The problem isn't 2 conferences competing at the highest level. The problem is everyone else dreaming they can when they can't. The sooner the 2 conferences set their final slate of teams and kill everyone else's dreams, the better for everyone. Everyone's expectations will move to reality.
concordtom
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

concordtom said:

Bobodeluxe said:

The major leagues seem to be surviving with .500 teams in their playoffs.


Network managers see that they can make more viewership, more money, by concentrating hype on select programs which they own the rights of.

Conferences are colluding with networks to aggregate this attention. And that is the source of their power.

They use this power to control the rankings and the playoff selections.

It's all about grabbing as much as possible, oligopoly style.

If the NFL had 130 teams and only 30 of them ever had a chance to win or make money, they would cut 100 teams.

The problem isn't 2 conferences competing at the highest level. The problem is everyone else dreaming they can when they can't. The sooner the 2 conferences set their final slate of teams and kill everyone else's dreams, the better for everyone. Everyone's expectations will move to reality.


I did say years ago that there's plenty of pride and enjoyment when Yale beat Harvard. I dunno why we feel the need to pay generational wealth for (circular door of) guys to do something that many would do for free.

Society's values are screwed up.
Meanwhile, Chinese are in their factories - and we'll complain about losing to them. Hmmm.
socaltownie
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concordtom said:


I did say years ago that there's plenty of pride and enjoyment when Yale beat Harvard. I dunno why we feel the need to pay generational wealth for (circular door of) guys to do something that many would do for free.

Society's values are screwed up.
Meanwhile, Chinese are in their factories - and we'll complain about losing to them. Hmmm.


LOL. I wonder why we can see that and others can not. I am not at ALL convinced that Cal draws less against Davis and Cal Poly than yesterday. 30K tickets sold but probably 20K in the stands. It would require a different kind of relationship to football than this board has but it feels so doable.

Consider.....

There are a HUGE number of students that went to the same high school but now are at UCD and UCB. Consider a fairly simple marketing effort where students could request some tent space (and maybe a pop up) to have a tail gate with their buddies and besties from the respective schools. Bus transportation (or discounted tickets on Amtrack). Afternoon game. Band plays. Everyone happy. Rinse and repeat.

It feels like so many posters here are in their 70s or older. Their relationship to Cal football (and honestly the school/higher ed) is just different than the current generation of students. And remember - those students become the alumni of the 2040s and 2050s. Will they be as into it as sebbear?

And here is the data point that helps illustrate SOME of the above. The Big game for years always sold out and was always the last game on the schedule. In the years prior to Hairball and Tedford both programs usually "sucked" if that metric is "national relevance". But it always sold out. It was the talk of the Bay area for a week. The pranks were legendary. I really think you can bring that back by DEEMPHASIZING participation in the arms race.

Would it take effort? Absolutely! Will it be among the hardest alumni meetings a chancellor has gone to? Yup. But I just don't see a pathway that alows Cal to be competitive in the current and emerging landscape. Yes, I will take the "Loser" moniker on that but the LONGGGGG track record of Cal's football "success" really bears out the proposition that Cal can do "OK" in the middle but lacks lots of factors which combine to create a perennial top 20 program.

The challenge with all of these posts is that people of very good faith are rowing in a different direction. They deserve support for that because only an Ahole doesn't appreciate 1000s of hours of volunteer work. I just worry about the hangover when cal is relegated....or maybe even worse, gets in the super league and is the laughing stock of a league withiout a salary cap, no draft and unlimited free agency.
Take care of your Chicken
concordtom
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Great points!
I think I agree with every single one of them.

It would be more fun to win the championship in division 2, feeling smug in our budget success, than get rolled in division 1 and being in debt.

Of course, decisions were made long ago to take the debt route because of the fault-line stadium retrofit. I have no opinion about that, engineering wise.
socaltownie
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concordtom said:

Great points!
I think I agree with every single one of them.

It would be more fun to win the championship in division 2, feeling smug in our budget success, than get rolled in division 1 and being in debt.

Of course, decisions were made long ago to take the debt route because of the fault-line stadium retrofit. I have no opinion about that, engineering wise.

I just want competitive football that is "fun" to go to.

Take care of your Chicken
DoubtfulBear
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socaltownie said:

concordtom said:


I did say years ago that there's plenty of pride and enjoyment when Yale beat Harvard. I dunno why we feel the need to pay generational wealth for (circular door of) guys to do something that many would do for free.

Society's values are screwed up.
Meanwhile, Chinese are in their factories - and we'll complain about losing to them. Hmmm.


LOL. I wonder why we can see that and others can not. I am not at ALL convinced that Cal draws less against Davis and Cal Poly than yesterday. 30K tickets sold but probably 20K in the stands. It would require a different kind of relationship to football than this board has but it feels so doable.

Ivy League games regularly have 10K attendance. If we go down to FCS level, expect fan engagement to plummet
sycasey
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DoubtfulBear said:

socaltownie said:

concordtom said:


I did say years ago that there's plenty of pride and enjoyment when Yale beat Harvard. I dunno why we feel the need to pay generational wealth for (circular door of) guys to do something that many would do for free.

Society's values are screwed up.
Meanwhile, Chinese are in their factories - and we'll complain about losing to them. Hmmm.


LOL. I wonder why we can see that and others can not. I am not at ALL convinced that Cal draws less against Davis and Cal Poly than yesterday. 30K tickets sold but probably 20K in the stands. It would require a different kind of relationship to football than this board has but it feels so doable.

Ivy League games regularly have 10K attendance. If we go down to FCS level, expect fan engagement to plummet

On the plus side, no one will complain about noise at the stadium anymore!
Bobodeluxe
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Wilcox is probably a decent coach for the more traditional football powers, whatever that transforms into in the nil era, but Berkeley is not the place for that. Tedford nearly killed himself building a winning program, and should have moved on to a less stressful and more supportive school(almost anywhere).

If the Berkeley Bears are to survive, let alone succeed, a young go getter needs to be hired knowing that he would be free to entertain offers without fear of any retribution.

A simple 'thank you for your efforts" would be enough.
juarezbear
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concordtom said:

Bobodeluxe said:

The major leagues seem to be surviving with .500 teams in their playoffs.


Network managers see that they can make more viewership, more money, by concentrating hype on select programs which they own the rights of.

Conferences are colluding with networks to aggregate this attention. And that is the source of their power.

They use this power to control the rankings and the playoff selections.

It's all about grabbing as much as possible, oligopoly style.



This times 1000! ESPN and FOX are the powers behind the throne and the real villains in this story. FOX had a lot to do with blocking Cal and Stanford from joining the B1G and since sports are one of the few profitable areas left for linear/basic cable TV, Disney (ESPN) and Fox are holding on for dear life. I'm bummed that Apple didn't step up in a big way when the Pac 12 was crumbling. After F1's success, Apple stepped up big time to get future racing rights. I predict they'll re-enter the game with a ton of cash and we might see a realignment back to traditional geographic conferences as a result.
socaltownie
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Davis ia regularly selling out 11k.
Take care of your Chicken
DoubtfulBear
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That's perfect for us. Let's just bulldoze Memorial Stadium and relocate the football team to Edwards Stadium where we can regularly get packed crowds
socaltownie
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Goven attendance yesterday it could be
Take care of your Chicken
concordtom
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Bobodeluxe said:

Tedford nearly killed himself building a winning program, and should have moved on to a less stressful and more supportive school(almost anywhere).


Like Fresno State?
concordtom
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DoubtfulBear said:

That's perfect for us. Let's just bulldoze Memorial Stadium and relocate the football team to Edwards Stadium where we can regularly get packed crowds


Oooo.
Real estate for housing?
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