This message board and the current state of Cal Football

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Oski87
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TedfordTheGreat said:

mbBear said:

calumnus said:

mbBear said:

calumnus said:

philly1121 said:

sycasey said:

TandemBear said:

The reason there are 18+ threads about dumping Wilcox is because of Cal's inability to get rid of this dead weight! Not only has Cal not fired him, they extended him with an absurdly onerous contract that may have doomed the program.

Quite true, but this goes back to the screwed-up administration (as described by Greg) that preceded the current Lyons/Rivera regime. It's fair to give them time to clean this up and to dig out of the hole Knowlton put them in.

I think the sunshine pumpers on this board would say, the problem with that is - the clock is ticking. Realignment is in 29/30.

I don't agree that we can magically improve to the extent that we would be invited to the B1G. I suspect most in Administration would think the same. I think its a matter of evaluating what things look like from the standpoint of a reduced ACC. And how to remain competitive from a budgetary and performance standpoint. But I think there are a great many college football programs that are doing this.

A culture shift - what Rivera was brought in to expedite - will take way too long for the time that is in front of us. I think the realization of that is what is driving alot of negativity on this board - some justified, some not. Its the price of middling around for too long.


In 2001 Holmoe went 0-10 until the makeup game against 2-8 Rutgers got our only win. Worse we were on NCAA sanctions.

People, especially the insiders and big donors, had been defending Holmoe on this board, saying our stadium and training facilities were terrible , our administration did not support football, the Bay Area is an NFL market….

Only three years later we were 1 play or a missed FG away from an 11-0 season and a berth in the National Championship Game.

The difference was only having a good coach. It helped that Gladstone was the temporary AD and could recognize good coaching, but that was it.

Since then we have spent more on our stadium and facilities than any other school (not arguing they are the best, but far better than under Tedford). We have a Cal alum and fan as our chancellor for the first time in our history. We have put a former Cal All American player and Super Bowl head coach in charge of the program. The Raiders (and A's) are gone. The East Bay market is ours for the taking. We are one of two West Coast teams ESPN owns exclusive rights to and wants to actively promote us. We have one of the easiest schedules on the country, one of the easiest in our history. We are still in the state that produces the most NFL talent and now regularly play in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania…. We are the nearest D1 school to Hawaii with the most, and cheapest air flights…. We have the wealthiest alumni collectively of any D1 program. We and our rival offer the top academics in D1 football. Our campus and stadium are beautiful. The Bay Area weather and culture are unique and a huge draw…

As in 2001, all it takes is firing the losing coach and hiring a good coach. If anything, everything else is FAR better now.


Not that it was all that important relative to your other fine points but: that's really a thing, that Cal is the "wealthiest alumni collectively?" I suspect that some of the groups that come to mind, like a Duke, could be higher per capita, but they are creating a lot less alums on a yearly basis.
Of course the activation and participation of the alumni group relative to sports is always going to be the key, so even if we want to brag about the alumni group relative to LSU, Penn St, Oregon et. al., what those schools are receiving in terms of season ticket holders (or, for that matter game by game purchases) contributions etc. is double and triple (conservatively) compared to Cal. But what you cite is still an important source.


OK, I used "wealth" as lazy shorthand for "gross earnings": Cal has far more alumni than the (all private) schools with similar per capita lifetime incomes, and Cal alumni collectively have the greatest gross earnings of any school. Part of that is the Bay Area has the highest earnings in the country and we dwarf Stanford grads in numbers.

A lot of wealth in this country is inherited and people with inherited wealth generally go to privates.

Here are the number of billionaire alumni per Forbes' World Billionaire List 2024;
1. Harvard 127
2. Stanford 93
3. Penn 62
4. Columbia 47
5. MIT 39
6. NYU 28
7. Yale 24
8. University of California, Berkeley 22
9. Cornell 21
10. Princeton 20

What is important to note about the above list is Cal and Stanford are the only two of the ten that play D1 sports, much less are in a P4 Conference.

Cal has 22 billionaires. Rivera just has to find 1 that wants to be our Mark Cuban. Or maybe someone with just $800,000 million? Or maybe each billionaire pledges $10 million (less than 1%) for $220 million total?

You are correct that our current athletics revenues from our wealthy alumni are relatively low, my post was more about our untapped potential.


I took it that way, about being untapped. Interesting list, thanks for posting.
Not going to say the "one billionaire" discovery wouldn't change a lot. But the cruel reality is that "quantity over quality" certainly rules the day here when you talk about the number of people engaged with supporting sports at other schools..

rumor has it that Brian Kelly's buyout ($50M+) was entirely funded by a singular donor. That could be the difference for a billionaire discovery that you mentioned. If someone funds $50M right now we can get a top tier coach for 5 years

The guy who owns Whattaburger…supposedly in the 40 billion dollar range.
Rushinbear
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DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).
bearsandgiants
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I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4. I think there's almost no chance it happens, but it will mean we beat two ranked opponents, one on the road, or at least won Big Game and beat a ranked opponent. I can't see Wilcox getting canned if we win 8 before the bowl game. I'd give it zero chance. Not sure he'd deserve another year given everything else that has happened to date, but I would think if he can somehow get us 3 more wins, we'd actually have people on here worried about him getting "poached." And what a blessing it would be (for some). It's actually a really exciting time to be a Cal fan. I mean, the world looks like it could be ending soon, so this kind of pales in comparison. Enjoy the ride!
socaltownie
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As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.
Take care of your Chicken
ac_green33
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socaltownie said:

As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.
Strykur
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ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html
ac_green33
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Strykur said:

ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html

Oh, I know. But, I will win
BearlyCareAnymore
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bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4. I think there's almost no chance it happens, but it will mean we beat two ranked opponents, one on the road, or at least won Big Game and beat a ranked opponent. I can't see Wilcox getting canned if we win 8 before the bowl game. I'd give it zero chance. Not sure he'd deserve another year given everything else that has happened to date, but I would think if he can somehow get us 3 more wins, we'd actually have people on here worried about him getting "poached." And what a blessing it would be (for some). It's actually a really exciting time to be a Cal fan. I mean, the world looks like it could be ending soon, so this kind of pales in comparison. Enjoy the ride!

You may be right, and I'm sure some people will feel that way. But I get the sense that a high percentage of people are just done and irretrievable at this point.
BearlyCareAnymore
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ac_green33 said:

Strykur said:

ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html

Oh, I know. But, I will win

Are we still talking about football here?
BearlyCareAnymore
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Rushinbear said:

DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).

Furd was as bad or anything worse last year (and I don't think we are better this year), and it took 98 yards with the boys to avoid that. So, while I can't see it, I can definitely see it.
ac_green33
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

ac_green33 said:

Strykur said:

ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html

Oh, I know. But, I will win

Are we still talking about football here?

Of course not
Quote:


Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

BearlyCareAnymore
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ac_green33 said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

ac_green33 said:

Strykur said:

ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

aAs someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html

Oh, I know. But, I will win

Are we still talking about football here?

Of course not
Quote:


Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.



Sorry, ac. It was a lame attempt at a joke that maybe we were talking about your desire to seduce Larry Ellison. If you have to explain the joke...
Strykur
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

Rushinbear said:

DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).

Furd was as bad or anything worse last year (and I don't think we are better this year), and it took 98 yards with the boys to avoid that. So, while I can't see it, I can definitely see it.

I have seen some crazy turnarounds before (in 2009 we got smoked 72-6 combined by Oregon and SC and then later in the season beat a top-15 Arizona team and won the Axe after the Trees had dumped 50+ back-to-back on the Ducks and SC), the problem is this team has no playmakers and although we could pull it off, even if we win this weekend, we are limping to the finish
ac_green33
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

ac_green33 said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

ac_green33 said:

Strykur said:

ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

aAs someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html

Oh, I know. But, I will win

Are we still talking about football here?

Of course not
Quote:


Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.



Sorry, ac. It was a lame attempt at a joke that maybe we were talking about your desire to seduce Larry Ellison. If you have to explain the joke...

Im just bored/procrastinating at work and saying outrageous nonsense. Forgive me lol
BearlyCareAnymore
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Strykur said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Rushinbear said:

DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).

Furd was as bad or anything worse last year (and I don't think we are better this year), and it took 98 yards with the boys to avoid that. So, while I can't see it, I can definitely see it.

I have seen some crazy turnarounds before (in 2009 we got smoked 72-6 combined by Oregon and SC and then later in the season beat a top-15 Arizona team and won the Axe after the Trees had dumped 50+ back-to-back on the Ducks and SC), the problem is this team has no playmakers and although we could pull it off, even if we win this weekend, we are limping to the finish

If Cal said, screw it, we are going to run a fast offense, throw 60 times a game and even if we drop 20, get sacked 5, and complete 35, we'll be moving, I could see us changing course at least some. But we aren't going to do that.

I'm exaggerating for effect, but JKS is all we have. I figure every set of downs you have 3 passes to complete 1. Cal needs to focus on the pass to the extent that running is a trick play. But I expect the boring offense to continue.
Strykur
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

Strykur said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Rushinbear said:

DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).

Furd was as bad or anything worse last year (and I don't think we are better this year), and it took 98 yards with the boys to avoid that. So, while I can't see it, I can definitely see it.

I have seen some crazy turnarounds before (in 2009 we got smoked 72-6 combined by Oregon and SC and then later in the season beat a top-15 Arizona team and won the Axe after the Trees had dumped 50+ back-to-back on the Ducks and SC), the problem is this team has no playmakers and although we could pull it off, even if we win this weekend, we are limping to the finish

I'm exaggerating for effect, but JKS is all we have.

This is not hyperbole, if we did not have JKS and instead of our current schedule we were playing an old PAC-10/12 slate, this team would be on par with the 2012/2013 or 2001 Holmoecaust teams
pingpong2
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bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4. I think there's almost no chance it happens, but it will mean we beat two ranked opponents, one on the road, or at least won Big Game and beat a ranked opponent. I can't see Wilcox getting canned if we win 8 before the bowl game. I'd give it zero chance. Not sure he'd deserve another year given everything else that has happened to date, but I would think if he can somehow get us 3 more wins, we'd actually have people on here worried about him getting "poached." And what a blessing it would be (for some). It's actually a really exciting time to be a Cal fan. I mean, the world looks like it could be ending soon, so this kind of pales in comparison. Enjoy the ride!

Nope, a few empty wins is not worth the risk of JW somehow keeping his job. I said this back in 2022, and a lot of it is still true today.

Quote:

I'm completetly serious when I say that we need to be rooting to go winless the rest of the way. It sucks, it's messy, and it's horrible for the players, but we need to excise this cancer. Winning a couple of games the rest of the way will just mean more of the same for years to come. It's painfully clear that the AD is fine with mediocrity, so the only way to force the issue is to not even be mediocre.

Anything less and we're dooming all future players to more of this clownshow of a program.

We are where we are today because we did not get rid of Wilcox back then; his continued employment poses an existential crisis for Cal Football. The only bright spot now is that while I had no faith in Knownothing to look beyond the W-L record when making decisions, I trust that RR understands when the record is a total mirage. That said, it'd still be hard for him to can someone who goes 9-3, even if we only get there through the opponent's own incompetence. And trust me, the way the team has been playing this whole season, the only way we're going to win more games is if the other team deserves to lose even more than we do.
Golden One
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Strykur said:

I have seen some crazy turnarounds before (in 2009 we got smoked 72-6 combined by Oregon and SC and then later in the season beat a top-15 Arizona team and won the Axe after the Trees had dumped 50+ back-to-back on the Ducks and SC), the problem is this team has no playmakers and although we could pull it off, even if we win this weekend, we are limping to the finish

Wilcox was not head coach in 2009. His teams have shown very little ability to come back from blowout losses and defeat good teams. Wilcox just doesn't have the motivational ability to do that.
Big C
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Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?
sycasey
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I set the benchmark for 9 wins to keep Wilcox, so if by some miracle he manages to do that (including. the bowl game) then I guess I would be back on board.

It's not going to happen, though. San Diego State and Virginia Tech were supposed to be two of our best chances to collect wins.
DoubtfulBear
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Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?
Was it worth it for OSU to lose against UM in order to win the natty?
sycasey
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DoubtfulBear said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?

Was it worth it for OSU to lose against UM in order to win the natty?

Not sure they won the natty because they lost to Michigan though.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Strykur said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Strykur said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Rushinbear said:

DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).

Furd was as bad or anything worse last year (and I don't think we are better this year), and it took 98 yards with the boys to avoid that. So, while I can't see it, I can definitely see it.

I have seen some crazy turnarounds before (in 2009 we got smoked 72-6 combined by Oregon and SC and then later in the season beat a top-15 Arizona team and won the Axe after the Trees had dumped 50+ back-to-back on the Ducks and SC), the problem is this team has no playmakers and although we could pull it off, even if we win this weekend, we are limping to the finish

I'm exaggerating for effect, but JKS is all we have.

This is not hyperbole, if we did not have JKS and instead of our current schedule we were playing an old PAC-10/12 slate, this team would be on par with the 2012/2013 or 2001 Holmoecaust teams

This team is better than 2001, certainly, but that was a brutal schedule. This team would be 0-8 with JKS and that schedule. At best 2-6. We absolutely would have started 0-6. Our first five games were against teams that ended up ranked (mostly pretty high) and our 6th game was against UCLA who was ranked #4 going into the game.

82gradDLSdad
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ac_green33 said:

Strykur said:

ac_green33 said:

socaltownie said:

As someone who raises money as part of my job this just feels like an increasingly hard ask unless there is a LONG term plan to cultivate large dollar donors. From the outside it feels like Cal is approaching it from a strategy that makes sense - working on donors to endow the other sports (where you can make a pretty compelling argument that absent the check sport X goes away or moves to club status). Lots of unique circumstances out there but I bet if we looked at most 7 figure CFB donors right now we would find guys who PLAYED football and/or who grew up in a local culture (Texas, SE) that is heavily all in. THen we have the guys who are donating actually as a good marketing play - why I bet you see ALphabet or Nividia giving to Bay Area CS department and Nike/Knight giving to Oregon. And finally the Sugar Daddies like Ellison who I doubt gives a rats ass about football but is throwing pocket change at the hobby of his latest girfriend.

Fine, I will seduce Larry Ellison for the sake of Cal football.

Forget it he is already siphoning off money to Michigan: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/billionaire-larry-ellison-helped-michigan-100300971.html

Oh, I know. But, I will win


I may have an "in" with Larry. I know a guy...
Seriously, this guy's wife whom I've met a few times, administers the 30 person tax firm that has only one client: Larry Ellison. I think she'd do me a favor.
Rushinbear
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sycasey said:

I set the benchmark for 9 wins to keep Wilcox, so if by some miracle he manages to do that (including. the bowl game) then I guess I would be back on board.

It's not going to happen, though. San Diego State and Virginia Tech were supposed to be two of our best chances to collect wins.

I'm excluding a bowl game in the # of wins calc. 12 games. 8-4 and he's gone. With this sched? That would be the point. It's not like a GPA hurdle - 3.25 and you're in. The w/l record is only 1 measure. I hope RR can repeat that as many times as necessary. There are a host of other criteria, not all having to do with w/l record.
sycasey
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Rushinbear said:

sycasey said:

I set the benchmark for 9 wins to keep Wilcox, so if by some miracle he manages to do that (including. the bowl game) then I guess I would be back on board.

It's not going to happen, though. San Diego State and Virginia Tech were supposed to be two of our best chances to collect wins.

I'm excluding a bowl game in the # of wins calc. 12 games. 8-4 and he's gone. With this sched? That would be the point. It's not like a GPA hurdle - 3.25 and you're in. The w/l record is only 1 measure. I hope RR can repeat that as many times as necessary. There are a host of other criteria, not all having to do with w/l record.

It's fine if you want to exclude the bowl game or set a higher benchmark. Personally, I just include all games.

I also don't mean to say that 9-4 is what Cal should be at its peak, but my thinking was that I wanted to see evidence that Wilcox could improve as a coach. His previous best mark was 8-5. Okay, so show me something better. That's where I came up with that number.

Either way he's probably not reaching it so whatever.
Big C
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Fred Bear said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?

I'm rooting for Cal to give themselves a chance to compete at football. If that means Cal has to lose Big Game to keep people from giving themselves an excuse not to fire a bad football coach, then that's what has to be done. Not my fault Cal is full of people that celebrate mediocrity or worse. It's their fault I've been stuck with a program that's been going nowhere for nine years.

Just curious, how far are you taking this?

Are you going to Big Game dressed up as a Stanfurd Dolly and leading cheers for those degenerates?

Personally, I want Cal to win more, which probably means we need to get a new HC. In the meantime, I am rooting for the California Golden Bears to win every time they take the field! Go Bears!!!
Strykur
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Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?

I'm rooting for Cal to give themselves a chance to compete at football. If that means Cal has to lose Big Game to keep people from giving themselves an excuse not to fire a bad football coach, then that's what has to be done. Not my fault Cal is full of people that celebrate mediocrity or worse. It's their fault I've been stuck with a program that's been going nowhere for nine years.

Personally, I want Cal to win more, which probably means we need to get a new HC. In the meantime, I am rooting for the California Golden Bears to win every time they take the field! Go Bears!!!

I went to Big Game last year, and despite the finish, was indifferent to the result, I will feel the same as such next month.
pingpong2
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At this point, more wins is kind of like hooking up with a crazy ex. Fun in the moment, but probably not great for the long-term, with a healthy dose of guilt thrown in once the post-nut clarity kicks in.
Alkiadt
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pingpong2 said:

At this point, more wins is kind of like hooking up with a crazy ex. Fun in the moment, but probably not great for the long-term, with a healthy dose of guilt thrown in.


I never had any guilt…..
AZ Bear
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Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?

I'm rooting for Cal to give themselves a chance to compete at football. If that means Cal has to lose Big Game to keep people from giving themselves an excuse not to fire a bad football coach, then that's what has to be done. Not my fault Cal is full of people that celebrate mediocrity or worse. It's their fault I've been stuck with a program that's been going nowhere for nine years.

Just curious, how far are you taking this?

Are you going to Big Game dressed up as a Stanfurd Dolly and leading cheers for those degenerates?

Personally, I want Cal to win more, which probably means we need to get a new HC. In the meantime, I am rooting for the California Golden Bears to win every time they take the field! Go Bears!!!

Hell yeah! Pulling for the Golden Bears to win every time!

Darn it Big C, you consistently just make too much sense. Are you sure you're on the right board?
calumnus
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

Strykur said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Strykur said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Rushinbear said:

DaveT said:

I'm not upset at the 5-3 record, I'm mystified we can have that record after having played so poorly. RR doesn't need a full season to evaluate Wilcox unless he's been asleep for the past nine years. Maybe there's some 3D chess going on behind the scenes, but to the average fan like me, it just looks like more Cal foot-dragging and indecision. I understand Wilcox won't be canned until after the season (if at all), I just find it bizarre under the circumstances.

The question is what to do if we go 8-4? If 7-5, even, JW has to go. Has to. If RR doesn't fire him then, we'll have our 40 year answer. If 9-3, I don't think he can justify it. But, 8-4? JW insists that he's turned the corner, albeit slowly, and will battle hard to stay. That will be the measure of RR's resolve.

So, we're not going 9-3. If nothing else, Louisville will take care of that. Virginia and SMU, although limping, might have enough to put us out of our misery. Furd? I can't see it, unless the team lays down, but anything's possible at this point (except 9-3).

Furd was as bad or anything worse last year (and I don't think we are better this year), and it took 98 yards with the boys to avoid that. So, while I can't see it, I can definitely see it.

I have seen some crazy turnarounds before (in 2009 we got smoked 72-6 combined by Oregon and SC and then later in the season beat a top-15 Arizona team and won the Axe after the Trees had dumped 50+ back-to-back on the Ducks and SC), the problem is this team has no playmakers and although we could pull it off, even if we win this weekend, we are limping to the finish

I'm exaggerating for effect, but JKS is all we have.

This is not hyperbole, if we did not have JKS and instead of our current schedule we were playing an old PAC-10/12 slate, this team would be on par with the 2012/2013 or 2001 Holmoecaust teams

This team is better than 2001, certainly, but that was a brutal schedule. This team would be 0-8 with JKS and that schedule. At best 2-6. We absolutely would have started 0-6. Our first five games were against teams that ended up ranked (mostly pretty high) and our 6th game was against UCLA who was ranked #4 going into the game.




To your point, here are the last 4 Holmoe teams in Sagarin (Sagain began in 1998):

1998 #53 with the #22 schedule
1999 #64 with the #23 schedule
2000 #61 with the #5 schedule
2001 #115 with the #6 schedule

This team is #82 with the #70 schedule.

So while this team is not as bad as Holmoe's last, it is worse than all his other teams.

It is also worse than all of Dykes' teams other than his first (1-11 #106 vs the #4 schedule) and worse than all of Tedford's teams including his last/worst (3-9 #73 vs the #10 schedule).

Note that Wilcox's 2020 team was worse, 1-3 #93 vs the #63 schedule, but most here ignore that because of COVID and the fact he followed that up in 2001 with 5-7 #60 vs the #64 schedule, so he was rewarded with a 6 year extension and in 2022 went 4-8 #65 vs the #38 schedule.

Wilcox's best was 2019 when he went 8-5 #50 against the #43 schedule. That compares with Holmoe's best 1998, when he went 5-6 #53 against the #22 schedule. By contrast Dykes best was 2015, 8-5 but #26 against the #10 schedule.

Holmoe and Wilcox are the two Cal coaches that have the worst team ranking averages by Sports Reference.com which ranks this team as #84 vs the #98 schedule.
Bobodeluxe
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This analysis undervalues the love of square jaw by the major donors.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?

I'm rooting for Cal to give themselves a chance to compete at football. If that means Cal has to lose Big Game to keep people from giving themselves an excuse not to fire a bad football coach, then that's what has to be done. Not my fault Cal is full of people that celebrate mediocrity or worse. It's their fault I've been stuck with a program that's been going nowhere for nine years.

Just curious, how far are you taking this?

Are you going to Big Game dressed up as a Stanfurd Dolly and leading cheers for those degenerates?

Personally, I want Cal to win more, which probably means we need to get a new HC. In the meantime, I am rooting for the California Golden Bears to win every time they take the field! Go Bears!!!


Of course, if Wilcox would just get fired before the Big Game everybody wins. Including, hopefully, Cal - both short term and long term
Big C
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Strykur said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

Big C said:

Fred Bear said:

bearsandgiants said:

I think people will feel a LOT better about everything if we win 3 of our last 4.

Only because Cal fans suffer from a lack of imagination and think an 8-4 record against a bunch of weak opponents equals success. I'd rather go 0-4 and keep those people from having a voice.

So, you're rooting for Cal to lose, including Big Game?

I'm rooting for Cal to give themselves a chance to compete at football. If that means Cal has to lose Big Game to keep people from giving themselves an excuse not to fire a bad football coach, then that's what has to be done. Not my fault Cal is full of people that celebrate mediocrity or worse. It's their fault I've been stuck with a program that's been going nowhere for nine years.

Personally, I want Cal to win more, which probably means we need to get a new HC. In the meantime, I am rooting for the California Golden Bears to win every time they take the field! Go Bears!!!

I went to Big Game last year, and despite the finish, was indifferent to the result, I will feel the same as such next month.


We're in this for the fun of it and it's personal prerogative as to what's fun and what's not. That said, you're indifferent as to the result of Big Game? And you're still going to this year's? That's kind of sad. I assume it's the lack of wins and generally incompetent football that we're playing?
 
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