Cal Football

Ruiz Report: Cal Must Fix Abysmal Offense, Special Teams

Joaquin Ruiz shares his raw thoughts and opinions after Cal's 24-10 loss to Clemson in his weekly "Ruiz Report" column. The "Ruiz Report" was born at The Daily Californian.
September 27, 2026
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“Alright. So what? Now what?”

Those were the first words Tosh Lupoi said to the media after his Golden Bears failed to score a touchdown against Clemson in a 24-10 home loss on Friday night.

And, well, the “now what” is fairly obvious. Cal must make changes to its abysmal offense and special teams.

The Golden Bears are letting down their Blue-and-Gold faithful — and sturdy defense — in two of three phases of the game. Four weeks in, after an offseason for the books, Cal is lucky to be 2-2, with a defensive-oriented win in Syracuse and a home stroll past Wagner.

Addressing special teams is the somewhat easier part.

Whether Zach Tinker continues to lead the unit or not, the Golden Bears must stay disciplined on the line of scrimmage and in their coverage lanes, field balls cleanly and order Angus Davies not to give opposing returners alley-oops with line-drive punts. Those are addressable items that any special teams coach would underscore. (Kicking is another story, but you already knew that.)

Now, repairing the offense? That’s where things get tricky.

First-time offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville, who has admittedly only previously called plays at the 12-and-under level, is the elephant in the room.

The Golden Bears haven’t had many consistent positives, if any, with their pro-style scheme beyond their season-opening 10-play touchdown drive against the UCLA Bruins. 

Your eyes don’t deceive you — Cal’s offense is alarmingly bad.

The Golden Bears consistently find themselves in third-and-long situations. They rarely attack downfield. Running back Adam Mohammed frequently has to make magic happen through contact. And where has tight end Dorian Thomas been?

Overall, Cal’s offense is just disjointed and uncomfortable more often than not.

Now, it must be said: the unit’s issues aren’t solely on Somerville.

The Golden Bears’ offensive line hasn’t progressed as much as anticipated or hoped. Cal’s new wideouts, particularly Ian Strong, haven’t been as game-changing as expected. Plus, running back Carter Vargas being banged up early surely changed some formulas.

Then, probably the least foreseeable element is quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s sophomore struggles. After an unreal freshman campaign, the southpaw has been a shell of himself thus far, with less confidence in the pocket and questionable decision-making.

Everything appears intertwined — in a concerning way.

It starts with Somerville seeming to throw a lot at the offense and mismanaging personnel and sequencing, which leaves the players themselves to struggle with in-game execution while showing no signs of improvement.

Cal’s 2-2 record speaks for itself.

“We have high execution in practice,” wideout Chase Hendricks said after the loss to Clemson. “Now, it's just about translating to the game.”

What Lupoi and the Golden Bears cannot do is keep chipping away, hoping the lightbulb will go off for the offense, as Somerville has previously articulated.

“You have to allow for failure when teaching a complex system like this,” Somerville said on Aug. 17

To quote TARS from Interstellar, “There is no time for caution.”

Cal is four weeks in. Eight games remain. Realignment is around the corner. And it’s going to get harder to sell fans and audiences on spending Saturdays at Memorial Stadium, despite how hard the program has tried to position itself in the national spotlight.

What Lupoi and the Golden Bears can do now, though, is give the offense a fresh start. They can do that by shrinking the playbook and also by giving quarterback coach Nick Rolovich a shot at calling plays.

Somerville’s pro-style system, like it or not, is installed; there’s realistically no going back this season.

However, having another mind operate Cal’s offense couldn’t hurt the team at this point. Rolovich knows Sagapolutele — and presumably his strengths — very well and led Cal to a 38-point outing in a win over No. 25 SMU as the team’s interim head coach last year … after the Golden Bears lost 31-10 in the 128th Big Game with eerily similar offensive woes as today.

Does that mean Lupoi has to part ways with Somerville? No. Instead, Lupoi can have the first-time play caller hand the reins to an offensive-minded veteran in Rolovich, while keeping Somerville involved in the background. 

“I have full faith that he's gonna be right there with me as far as dissecting every play that occurred, once again, that we didn't win,” Lupoi said of Somerville after the loss to Clemson. “We’ve got the players to do it, and we've got a great staff …”

Indeed, as Lupoi alluded to, Cal still has a very talented team and a staff with enough brainpower to give Berkeley students a run for their money.

And, maybe most importantly moving forward, there is no doubt that effort is a problem. The Golden Bears want to — and truly believe — they can win; the fight, particularly from defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings’ unit in Syracuse, proved it.

But the clock is ticking.

Long ago, Joe Kapp told us the Bear does not quit, nor does it die; Cal better make changes on offense and special teams before the Bear goes extinct.

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Ruiz Report: Cal Must Fix Abysmal Offense, Special Teams

9,236 Views | 25 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by Big C
LunchTime
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The play shown is why JKS isnt good (at least right now) and why Cals offense isnt good.

The entire left side of the field brings a blitz, the LB goes into coverage, and there is a DEAD OPEN guy in the middle. JKS waits for the long ball to develop and forces it. The play didnt take too long to develop, the play was ready to go nearly instantly, and if he makes that play, the defense cant do that anymore.

Any decent college QB knows that a blitz leaves that side vulnerable. A blitz is a trade off because its exploitable. It stops being a trade off when your QB apparently cant make a read or pass over the middle. It becomes the simple "end the drive" button for any DC.

The problem with the offense is that JKS is playing very poorly, which might be because of the system, but some of these things are basic skills for an above average QB.
C6Bear
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JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine. Why so many empty backfield sets when you know the OLine can't even handle 3 or 4 DLinemen let alone any kind of blitz? Often there's no time to even hit the hot receiver, if there is one, before the rush is there. I'm certainly not sold in any way with Somerville's offense, but his play calling appears timid and limited because he knows what the OLine can't do which is block. Ruiz's article is pretty dead on accurate with what many of us are seeing on the field.
LonelyCalFanInWA
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Here is what opposing teams are preparing for: Empty backfield-we drop eight, rush three, no threat from a non-running QB; highly likely (75%) that Cal's first down plays will be runs between tackles-rush five with two linebackers two to three yards off the line; if Cal sends a wide receiver out wide-provide single man coverage, play takes too long to develop and QB has not proven accuracy, have spy defender on running back. I could add more but these are the obvious situations that the most simply minded DCs can figure out in 10 minutes of watching tape. Defenses have yet to be seen looking confused, my goodness, even Wagner held their own on Cal's running plays. Hoping for a change to the vanilla offense and runs on first down this weekend.

GO BEARS!!
BearSD
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C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine.

JKS has to accept responsibility as well. He is not playing as well as he did last season. The o-line was at least as bad last season, and everyone here *****ed about the offensive playcalling last season (and throughout Wilcox's tenure for that matter).
C6Bear
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BearSD said:

C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine.

JKS has to accept responsibility as well. He is not playing as well as he did last season. The o-line was at least as bad last season, and everyone here *****ed about the offensive playcalling last season (and throughout Wilcox's tenure for that matter).

The OLine has actually regressed. Didn't think that was possible. He also doesn't have DeJesus anymore who was his quick outlet safety blanket last year.
82gradDLSdad
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C6Bear said:

BearSD said:

C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine.

JKS has to accept responsibility as well. He is not playing as well as he did last season. The o-line was at least as bad last season, and everyone here *****ed about the offensive playcalling last season (and throughout Wilcox's tenure for that matter).

The OLine has actually regressed. Didn't think that was possible. He also doesn't have DeJesus anymore who was his quick outlet safety blanket last year.


What happened to Cooper Perry last game? I know it was against Wagner but he looked pretty good in that game with some good catches. It looked like JKS felt comfortable throwing to him. Then Clemson, nothing.
HKBear97!
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If this quote is true - "a staff with enough brainpower to give Berkeley students a run for their money" then Cal really has lowered its admission standards. Comical.
BearlyCareAnymore
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C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine. Why so many empty backfield sets when you know the OLine can't even handle 3 or 4 DLinemen let alone any kind of blitz? Often there's no time to even hit the hot receiver, if there is one, before the rush is there. I'm certainly not sold in any way with Somerville's offense, but his play calling appears timid and limited because he knows what the OLine can't do which is block. Ruiz's article is pretty dead on accurate with what many of us are seeing on the field.

For the love of god, this has gotten ridiculous. At some point this board decided that JKS, instead of being a great prospect and a solid QB is a surefire Heisman/first round pick, and you guys are holding onto this like grim death. Every time he makes a mistake, last year and this year, it is someone else's fault. Presented with obvious video evidence that he blew an extremely easy read, we can't just say he made a mistake. We have to point the finger at everyone else.

JKS is a good player with incredible arm talent. At times he takes over drives and shows that he COULD be a star. He also is not very efficient and has a lot of work to do reading defenses. His passer rating last year was 77th in the country and you'd think he was All American. The play calling is not helping him, but he is not exactly helping the play calling either. The video is a very good example where the play call worked if he makes the right read. Instead, the play call looks extremely ineffective if you don't break it down. This was not the receiver not getting separation, or the OL not holding out or the play call being bad. The QB held the ball too long and threw a desperation pass into coverage, when there was a wide open receiver right in front of him and when a QB who understands coverages would have known that receiver would be open. This is a consistent issue. He makes the wrong read, throws to a receiver who is covered, and people here say "our receivers suck, they can't get separation".

Our OL sucks
Our playcalling sucks
Our WR's are not great.

and

Our QB is poor at making pre-snap reads, is slow at making in play reads, and is hit and miss at making the right read. He also has an incredible arm and accuracy which sometimes overcomes the other issues.

Honestly, it is disturbing that he got the QB coach he wanted, that Cal paid a lot for a very good QB coach, and he has patently not progressed from Freshman to Sophomore years. Frankly, it seems like he is relying on his physical ability and not improving the mental aspects of his game.

It is absolutely true that if the OL gave him 5 seconds to throw, and receivers got wide open and the play calling was better he'd be starring right now. If the offense was able to offset what he is not very good at, so the reads are right there every time, with tons of time to make them, and it is a question of pitch and catch, JKS would be dynamite. But that isn't what you get in real games and the game will only get faster, the pass rush quicker and the coverages tighter if he goes to the NFL.

I'm not blaming JKS for the offensive struggles. I think it is extremely obvious we have an OC problem. But he needs to get better. Full stop. He's a solid QB who sometimes takes over games. But he is just as responsible for the difficulties on offense as every other player on the team


Golden One
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BearlyCareAnymore said:



Our OL sucks
Our playcalling sucks
Our WR's are not great.
Our QB is poor at making pre-snap reads, is slow at making in play reads, and is hit and miss at making the right read.





All of the above are true. Improvement in all of them is necessary if we are going to get to 6 wins this season. Unfortunately, that's looking increasingly unlikely.
01Bear
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine. Why so many empty backfield sets when you know the OLine can't even handle 3 or 4 DLinemen let alone any kind of blitz? Often there's no time to even hit the hot receiver, if there is one, before the rush is there. I'm certainly not sold in any way with Somerville's offense, but his play calling appears timid and limited because he knows what the OLine can't do which is block. Ruiz's article is pretty dead on accurate with what many of us are seeing on the field.

For the love of god, this has gotten ridiculous. At some point this board decided that JKS, instead of being a great prospect and a solid QB is a surefire Heisman/first round pick, and you guys are holding onto this like grim death. Every time he makes a mistake, last year and this year, it is someone else's fault. Presented with obvious video evidence that he blew an extremely easy read, we can't just say he made a mistake. We have to point the finger at everyone else.

JKS is a good player with incredible arm talent. At times he takes over drives and shows that he COULD be a star. He also is not very efficient and has a lot of work to do reading defenses. His passer rating last year was 77th in the country and you'd think he was All American. The play calling is not helping him, but he is not exactly helping the play calling either. The video is a very good example where the play call worked if he makes the right read. Instead, the play call looks extremely ineffective if you don't break it down. This was not the receiver not getting separation, or the OL not holding out or the play call being bad. The QB held the ball too long and threw a desperation pass into coverage, when there was a wide open receiver right in front of him and when a QB who understands coverages would have known that receiver would be open. This is a consistent issue. He makes the wrong read, throws to a receiver who is covered, and people here say "our receivers suck, they can't get separation".

Our OL sucks
Our playcalling sucks
Our WR's are not great.

and

Our QB is poor at making pre-snap reads, is slow at making in play reads, and is hit and miss at making the right read. He also has an incredible arm and accuracy which sometimes overcomes the other issues.

Honestly, it is disturbing that he got the QB coach he wanted, that Cal paid a lot for a very good QB coach, and he has patently not progressed from Freshman to Sophomore years. Frankly, it seems like he is relying on his physical ability and not improving the mental aspects of his game.

It is absolutely true that if the OL gave him 5 seconds to throw, and receivers got wide open and the play calling was better he'd be starring right now. If the offense was able to offset what he is not very good at, so the reads are right there every time, with tons of time to make them, and it is a question of pitch and catch, JKS would be dynamite. But that isn't what you get in real games and the game will only get faster, the pass rush quicker and the coverages tighter if he goes to the NFL.

I'm not blaming JKS for the offensive struggles. I think it is extremely obvious we have an OC problem. But he needs to get better. Full stop. He's a solid QB who sometimes takes over games. But he is just as responsible for the difficulties on offense as every other player on the team

JKS looked more comfortable and confident in the UCLA game than in the Clemson Game. Aside from the Wagner game, JKS looked less and less comfortable with each game. It often looks like he's trying to force things, which can be the result of the many drops his receivers have made on the catchable balls he's placed on target. Worse, there are times when it looks like he's unsure which way his receivers are going to break and so he hangs on to the ball "just a little longer" to see if he can get on the same page as his receivers. What I would like to have happen is for JKS (and maybe his backups) and the receivers to study film together with just Rolo and figure out each other's preferences and what they should be doing on each play. Then JKS needs to go with his receivers on their own and do nothing but practice the same routes for hours on end. Until they all get on the same page, the offense will not improve.

Additionally, I really want someone to sit down with the receivers and make them study film of Jerry Rice. Jerry wasn't the fastest guy or even the quickest guy, but he's arguably the best receiver ever to play the game (my apologies to Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and all the other great receivers). Even in his Raiders years, when Jerry wasn't quite the same Jerry Rice he had been across the Bay, he was still darn effective and could still create separation against younger and faster DBs. Jerry didn't outathlete his oppositions, he outprepared them. He always set up for every play the exact same way. He never telegraphed his cuts and breaks. Defensive players were never sure what route he would run until he had passed them. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Cal's receivers. It's for this reason that they need to study film of Jerry Rice and incorporate what he did into how they play.

Also, the receivers need to pull a page out of Tony Gonzales's playbook and play catch at all times. Tony did that because he wanted to make sure he caught all the balls thrown his way and didn't make any unforced errors by dropping a catchable ball. When he was on the sidelines, he was inevitably playing catch with either a backup QB, an assistant coach, or a water boy. Cal's receivers can't seem to catch as much as a cold. They really should be playing catch at all times until they stop dropping catchable balls.
Jcasa
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I don't know what Tosh and the administration were thinking when they hired an offensive coordinator with no prior experience in that position. Fortunately Cal already has someone on board with significant offensive play calling experience that they could and should go to…Nick Rolovich. Currently he's the QB coach basically responsible for babysitting. Have him start helping with the play calling.
DiabloWags
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Just brutal.

It's a CULT.

HearstMining
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine. Why so many empty backfield sets when you know the OLine can't even handle 3 or 4 DLinemen let alone any kind of blitz? Often there's no time to even hit the hot receiver, if there is one, before the rush is there. I'm certainly not sold in any way with Somerville's offense, but his play calling appears timid and limited because he knows what the OLine can't do which is block. Ruiz's article is pretty dead on accurate with what many of us are seeing on the field.

For the love of god, this has gotten ridiculous. At some point this board decided that JKS, instead of being a great prospect and a solid QB is a surefire Heisman/first round pick, and you guys are holding onto this like grim death. Every time he makes a mistake, last year and this year, it is someone else's fault. Presented with obvious video evidence that he blew an extremely easy read, we can't just say he made a mistake. We have to point the finger at everyone else.

JKS is a good player with incredible arm talent. At times he takes over drives and shows that he COULD be a star. He also is not very efficient and has a lot of work to do reading defenses. His passer rating last year was 77th in the country and you'd think he was All American. The play calling is not helping him, but he is not exactly helping the play calling either. The video is a very good example where the play call worked if he makes the right read. Instead, the play call looks extremely ineffective if you don't break it down. This was not the receiver not getting separation, or the OL not holding out or the play call being bad. The QB held the ball too long and threw a desperation pass into coverage, when there was a wide open receiver right in front of him and when a QB who understands coverages would have known that receiver would be open. This is a consistent issue. He makes the wrong read, throws to a receiver who is covered, and people here say "our receivers suck, they can't get separation".

Our OL sucks
Our playcalling sucks
Our WR's are not great.

and

Our QB is poor at making pre-snap reads, is slow at making in play reads, and is hit and miss at making the right read. He also has an incredible arm and accuracy which sometimes overcomes the other issues.

Honestly, it is disturbing that he got the QB coach he wanted, that Cal paid a lot for a very good QB coach, and he has patently not progressed from Freshman to Sophomore years. Frankly, it seems like he is relying on his physical ability and not improving the mental aspects of his game.

It is absolutely true that if the OL gave him 5 seconds to throw, and receivers got wide open and the play calling was better he'd be starring right now. If the offense was able to offset what he is not very good at, so the reads are right there every time, with tons of time to make them, and it is a question of pitch and catch, JKS would be dynamite. But that isn't what you get in real games and the game will only get faster, the pass rush quicker and the coverages tighter if he goes to the NFL.

I'm not blaming JKS for the offensive struggles. I think it is extremely obvious we have an OC problem. But he needs to get better. Full stop. He's a solid QB who sometimes takes over games. But he is just as responsible for the difficulties on offense as every other player on the team




In the same way that Mendoza didn't suddenly get smart or become accurate when he went to Indiana, JKS didn't suddenly get stupid and he didn't suddenly become inaccurate. He does need to get better, but he showed he has the vision and arm talent last year. He demonstrated last season that he can see the correct throw to make and make it. So, now he's either he's seeing things he doesn't expect to see, or he's not looking at the right things, or he doesn't have confidence in the offense and it makes him hesitate and question his own judgement. It's largely on Rolo to get him back on track. Maybe we're giving Rolo a pass here when he should be getting some of the blame for the lousy passing game.
BearlyCareAnymore
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HearstMining said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

C6Bear said:

JKS' struggles are a result of the play calling and ineffective OLine. Why so many empty backfield sets when you know the OLine can't even handle 3 or 4 DLinemen let alone any kind of blitz? Often there's no time to even hit the hot receiver, if there is one, before the rush is there. I'm certainly not sold in any way with Somerville's offense, but his play calling appears timid and limited because he knows what the OLine can't do which is block. Ruiz's article is pretty dead on accurate with what many of us are seeing on the field.

For the love of god, this has gotten ridiculous. At some point this board decided that JKS, instead of being a great prospect and a solid QB is a surefire Heisman/first round pick, and you guys are holding onto this like grim death. Every time he makes a mistake, last year and this year, it is someone else's fault. Presented with obvious video evidence that he blew an extremely easy read, we can't just say he made a mistake. We have to point the finger at everyone else.

JKS is a good player with incredible arm talent. At times he takes over drives and shows that he COULD be a star. He also is not very efficient and has a lot of work to do reading defenses. His passer rating last year was 77th in the country and you'd think he was All American. The play calling is not helping him, but he is not exactly helping the play calling either. The video is a very good example where the play call worked if he makes the right read. Instead, the play call looks extremely ineffective if you don't break it down. This was not the receiver not getting separation, or the OL not holding out or the play call being bad. The QB held the ball too long and threw a desperation pass into coverage, when there was a wide open receiver right in front of him and when a QB who understands coverages would have known that receiver would be open. This is a consistent issue. He makes the wrong read, throws to a receiver who is covered, and people here say "our receivers suck, they can't get separation".

Our OL sucks
Our playcalling sucks
Our WR's are not great.

and

Our QB is poor at making pre-snap reads, is slow at making in play reads, and is hit and miss at making the right read. He also has an incredible arm and accuracy which sometimes overcomes the other issues.

Honestly, it is disturbing that he got the QB coach he wanted, that Cal paid a lot for a very good QB coach, and he has patently not progressed from Freshman to Sophomore years. Frankly, it seems like he is relying on his physical ability and not improving the mental aspects of his game.

It is absolutely true that if the OL gave him 5 seconds to throw, and receivers got wide open and the play calling was better he'd be starring right now. If the offense was able to offset what he is not very good at, so the reads are right there every time, with tons of time to make them, and it is a question of pitch and catch, JKS would be dynamite. But that isn't what you get in real games and the game will only get faster, the pass rush quicker and the coverages tighter if he goes to the NFL.

I'm not blaming JKS for the offensive struggles. I think it is extremely obvious we have an OC problem. But he needs to get better. Full stop. He's a solid QB who sometimes takes over games. But he is just as responsible for the difficulties on offense as every other player on the team




In the same way that Mendoza didn't suddenly get smart or become accurate when he went to Indiana, JKS didn't suddenly get stupid and he didn't suddenly become inaccurate. He does need to get better, but he showed he has the vision and arm talent last year. He demonstrated last season that he can see the correct throw to make and make it. So, now he's either he's seeing things he doesn't expect to see, or he's not looking at the right things, or he doesn't have confidence in the offense and it makes him hesitate and question his own judgement. It's largely on Rolo to get him back on track. Maybe we're giving Rolo a pass here when he should be getting some of the blame for the lousy passing game.

No actually, he really didn't show he has the vision last year. He got the Freshman discount last year. As I said, was 77th in the country in passer rating. His stats are actually slightly better this year except for interception percentage is significantly worse and TD percentage is significantly better.(though overall, his stats are pretty close to the same) He has the exact same completion percentage. Virtually the same yards per attempt yards per catch, and passer rating. (all of which are slightly better this year) He's basically the same guy as last year. He's just not getting the "great for a freshman" treatment.

And for comparison, his freshman stats were really close to Mendoza and better than Goff. So far, he has not improved nearly as much as they did Sophomore year.

Also, as Longshore pointed out, he's having mechanics issues he didn't have last year.

And, by the way, Mendoza was much better his last year here than he was given credit for, but it you watched him play he was significantly improved. His accuracy was better and his reads were faster and cleaner. That guy worked his ass off every offseason and improved significantly every season.
Big C
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The new offense, which might now be becoming the old offense to an extent, has filled JKS' mind with too many complexities.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Big C said:


The new offense, which might now be becoming the old offense to an extent, has filled JKS' mind with too many complexities.

Except, Big C, his stats are virtually identical to last year. What has changed is he isn't the shiny new toy that has unlimited potential to develop. He's in his second year when people assume he should have developed.

He hasn't changed. People's perception has changed. He didn't suddenly get worse. He suddenly stayed very much the same.


Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.2
64.2

TD%
3.7
5.1

Int%
1.8
2.9

Yard/Attempt
7.0
7.2

Yards/catch
10.9
11.2

Rating

131.6
135.6





BearlyBear
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Very artificially boosted comparison by Wagner. The difference is real in P4. You don't play FCS three times a year, and in FCS, it's not always bottom facing Wagner with Mohammed and Kyion breaking out for massive scores.

JKS had 200 yards a game in every game until the last two P4 games. He alnost didn't have 100 last game. He also has 4 picks already in P4 play. Another poster has made a throw chart that shows he doesn't throw downfield as much and almost never over the middle in this new scheme. He was never a perfect player out of HS but let's not pretend this is how he always looked.
BearlyBear
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Out of curiosity I re-did your stats for P4 games. Except I left the FCS opener against Texas Southern last year in because of effort and it's 1 in 12 games instead of 1 in 4. And in any case Jaron's stat line in that game of 27/38, 278 yards, 0TD, 1INT may be in line or even worse than his average anyway.

Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.2
58.7

TD%
3.7
3.8

Int%
1.8
3.8

Yard/Attempt
7.0
5.5

Yards/catch
10.9
9.4

Rating

131.6
109.9

The eyes can mislead but never lie. Stats should always pass the eye test
gobears74
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Speaking of eye test, maybe JKS should get a vision eval at the UC Optometry school, close to the stadium
There was a YouTube video where Mendoza was praising the IU Optometry school who helped his vision and his game

Optometry students can cart over to the stadium, an automated vision refractor that estimates nearsightedness, farsightedness, and astigmatism…could probably test the whole team in an hour
All Cal atheletes could benefit from a complete eye exam on the field and in the classroom
Big C
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

Big C said:


The new offense, which might now be becoming the old offense to an extent, has filled JKS' mind with too many complexities.

Except, Big C, his stats are virtually identical to last year. What has changed is he isn't the shiny new toy that has unlimited potential to develop. He's in his second year when people assume he should have developed.

He hasn't changed. People's perception has changed. He didn't suddenly get worse. He suddenly stayed very much the same.


Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.2
64.2

TD%
3.7
5.1

Int%
1.8
2.9

Yard/Attempt
7.0
7.2

Yards/catch
10.9
11.2

Rating

131.6
135.6


Here was my point...

1. One would expect a very promising true freshman QB to be significantly better his sophomore year. (like Goff was).

2. I suspect that if JKS was operating in the same system as last season, he would be better. How much, I don't know.

3. IMO, the main reason he is not better (and appears to have actually regressed) is that he is being asked to digest a "pro style" system that is too complex for him (and his offensive teammates) to digest in such a short period of time, especially considering these guys are young and often transient...

.Two examples. First, he is being asked to make 3-step drops on some plays, 5-step on others and 7-step on some. Second, he almost certainly has more progressions to go through, not to mention just more plays in general to master.


I don't know how good this offense could potentially be if, say, the same players were together for another year or two. Maybe it would be pretty good, or maybe it would still be ineffective. Bottom line though, it was a huge mistake to try and use this offense with these players at this time in their careers and also given Cal's situation.

As you alluded to, JKS himself may bear some of the responsibility. I have no idea what he did in the offseason; maybe he was busy working on his "brand". I know he doesn't seem quicker or more mobile. But that is inside info we will never know about. Certainly, he bears some responsibility for his play no matter what. I mean, it's his play.

Yes, our expectations for him were probably too high... for this season. We were extrapolating his success arc based on the case studies of Jared Goff and Fernando Mendoza.
BearlyCareAnymore
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BearlyBear said:

Out of curiosity I re-did your stats for P4 games. Except I left the FCS opener against Texas Southern last year in because of effort and it's 1 in 12 games instead of 1 in 4. And in any case Jaron's stat line in that game of 27/38, 278 yards, 0TD, 1INT may be in line or even worse than his average anyway.

Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.2
58.7

TD%
3.7
3.8

Int%
1.8
3.8

Yard/Attempt
7.0
5.5

Yards/catch
10.9
9.4

Rating

131.6
109.9

The eyes can mislead but never lie. Stats should always pass the eye test

I don't think that taking out his best game from this year and a mediocre game from last year is the way to check his stats. His worst game last year was the fourth game of the season against SDSU and likely his worst game of the season this year will be his fourth game of the season against Clemson, and their stats were very comparable. If you are going to claim that the Wagner game is inflating his stats because we are only 4 games in, then when you take it out, the Clemson game is deflating his stats as one of three games. His rating for that game is literally 60 points lower than the rest of the season.

If this is what you are going to do, and I still think it's silly, you should remove the best and worst games from each season to take care of outliers. If you do that, you are going to see comparable stats again.
01Bear
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gobears74 said:

Speaking of eye test, maybe JKS should get a vision eval at the UC Optometry school, close to the stadium
There was a YouTube video where Mendoza was praising the IU Optometry school who helped his vision and his game

Optometry students can cart over to the stadium, an automated vision refractor that estimates nearsightedness, farsightedness, and astigmatism…could probably test the whole team in an hour
All Cal atheletes could benefit from a complete eye exam on the field and in the classroom

I got an eye exam at the Cal Opto Clinic before; it was definitely not just one hour. The students give a very thorough exam that lasts about an hour (IIRC). On top of which, as a young alumnus who just graduated a year or two before, I appreciated being surrounded by the beautiful optometry students.


(Coincidentally enough, I would end up dating a Cal Opto student some years later. But she wasn't one of the students at the clinic when I went for my exam.)
BearlyBear
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It is very common to take P4 stats especially early in the season. All the analysts who are talking about Cal's bottom offense are doing so. Syracuse dropped 66 points in a cupcake game 1 and now Angeli is benched. Do you really think Wagner should be included? The Wagner that lost 87-3 to JMU? AND being triply overrepresented as an FCS game in a 4 game sample, and is also way over the average rating if you want to go there? Where JKS performance was below average in all his games and far above in Wagner alone?

And you are welcome to strip outliers, even considering that's saying a performance versus ranked SMU is the same worth as versus bottom of FCS Wagner, but I am actually still sure you will receive the same result, considering JKS has bad picks or bad passing in all of his P4 games, and only passed 200 yards once, whereas he passed that well knowedly in all games last year. There are other cross confirming analytics that confirm what everyone's eyes see. Go see his throw chart. I don't know why you'd double down on the very patently and obviously false idea he was always playing this badly. You can just admit you don't personally like the kid or his playing style, or his present performance expected as a sophomore not up to par. Your real motivations are obvious enough to me, forget the stats

Edit:

Removing 2025 SMU, SDSU with QB ratings 179.8, 80.2
Removing 2026 Wagner, Clemson with QB ratings 216.9, 75.8

Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.7
60.0

TD%
3.4
5.3

Int%
1.7
2.7

Yard/Attempt
7.0
6.0

Yards/catch
10.9
10.1

Rating
131.7
123.0
Rushinbear
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Big C said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Big C said:


The new offense, which might now be becoming the old offense to an extent, has filled JKS' mind with too many complexities.

Except, Big C, his stats are virtually identical to last year. What has changed is he isn't the shiny new toy that has unlimited potential to develop. He's in his second year when people assume he should have developed.

He hasn't changed. People's perception has changed. He didn't suddenly get worse. He suddenly stayed very much the same.


Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.2
64.2

TD%
3.7
5.1

Int%
1.8
2.9

Yard/Attempt
7.0
7.2

Yards/catch
10.9
11.2

Rating

131.6
135.6


Here was my point...

1. One would expect a very promising true freshman QB to be significantly better his sophomore year. (like Goff was).

2. I suspect that if JKS was operating in the same system as last season, he would be better. How much, I don't know.

3. IMO, the main reason he is not better (and appears to have actually regressed) is that he is being asked to digest a "pro style" system that is too complex for him (and his offensive teammates) to digest in such a short period of time, especially considering these guys are young and often transient...

.Two examples. First, he is being asked to make 3-step drops on some plays, 5-step on others and 7-step on some. Second, he almost certainly has more progressions to go through, not to mention just more plays in general to master.


I don't know how good this offense could potentially be if, say, the same players were together for another year or two. Maybe it would be pretty good, or maybe it would still be ineffective. Bottom line though, it was a huge mistake to try and use this offense with these players at this time in their careers and also given Cal's situation.

As you alluded to, JKS himself may bear some of the responsibility. I have no idea what he did in the offseason; maybe he was busy working on his "brand". I know he doesn't seem quicker or more mobile. But that is inside info we will never know about. Certainly, he bears some responsibility for his play no matter what. I mean, it's his play.

Yes, our expectations for him were probably too high... for this season. We were extrapolating his success arc based on the case studies of Jared Goff and Fernando Mendoza.

Ever hear of the "sophomore slump"?
Big C
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Rushinbear said:

Big C said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Big C said:


The new offense, which might now be becoming the old offense to an extent, has filled JKS' mind with too many complexities.

Except, Big C, his stats are virtually identical to last year. What has changed is he isn't the shiny new toy that has unlimited potential to develop. He's in his second year when people assume he should have developed.

He hasn't changed. People's perception has changed. He didn't suddenly get worse. He suddenly stayed very much the same.


Top number last year. Bottom Number this year:

Comp %
64.2
64.2

TD%
3.7
5.1

Int%
1.8
2.9

Yard/Attempt
7.0
7.2

Yards/catch
10.9
11.2

Rating

131.6
135.6


Here was my point...

1. One would expect a very promising true freshman QB to be significantly better his sophomore year. (like Goff was).

2. I suspect that if JKS was operating in the same system as last season, he would be better. How much, I don't know.

3. IMO, the main reason he is not better (and appears to have actually regressed) is that he is being asked to digest a "pro style" system that is too complex for him (and his offensive teammates) to digest in such a short period of time, especially considering these guys are young and often transient...

.Two examples. First, he is being asked to make 3-step drops on some plays, 5-step on others and 7-step on some. Second, he almost certainly has more progressions to go through, not to mention just more plays in general to master.


I don't know how good this offense could potentially be if, say, the same players were together for another year or two. Maybe it would be pretty good, or maybe it would still be ineffective. Bottom line though, it was a huge mistake to try and use this offense with these players at this time in their careers and also given Cal's situation.

As you alluded to, JKS himself may bear some of the responsibility. I have no idea what he did in the offseason; maybe he was busy working on his "brand". I know he doesn't seem quicker or more mobile. But that is inside info we will never know about. Certainly, he bears some responsibility for his play no matter what. I mean, it's his play.

Yes, our expectations for him were probably too high... for this season. We were extrapolating his success arc based on the case studies of Jared Goff and Fernando Mendoza.

Ever hear of the "sophomore slump"?

Yes indeed, but it is so noteworthy so as to have its own name because sophomores usually improve a great deal from their freshman year.
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