71Bear;492047 said:

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7-5

Fresno St: W [probably L]
Colorado: W [yes]
Presbyterian: W [yes]
UW: W [yes]
UO: L [yes]
USC: W [probably W]
Utah: L [yes]
UCLA: W [yes]
WSU: W [yes]
OSU: L [yes]
Stanford: L [probably W]
ASU: L [no W]

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Best case 8-4
Worst case 6-6

For the record, we certainly could lose to asu and Utah. Utah has been consistently good since urban Meyer. It will be interesting to see how they hold up in a deeper conference, but I'm sure their view is that if they do as well, they will finally get the respect they deserve. I'm sure they also feel that being in the PAC will help them with recruiting.
ASU was terrible most of last year, but if you saw their last couple of games, they found their QB of the future and he looked really good. I would not be surprised to see a big turnaround there.

I see Fresno as a potential loss too. I factored that 50/50 - I predict we will lose one game that we shouldn't - we have done that every year under JT, including 2004. If that game were in november, I'd call it a Bear win, but we will have lots of either new starters, or guys starting in new positions, and Fresno can be tough early, before a long season wrecks their depth.

As 71B might say, there can be a good 7-5 or a bad one. I am predicting a good one, meaning that we come out of this year feeling good about where we are going in '12 - none of the losses are blowouts, we don't quit in any game, we don't lose to UW yet again, we have a clear QB, and we don't end the year throwing WR screens on 3rd and 2. If we win the Big Game, we go 8-4.

Of course it could be worse than 7-5, and I'm not sure exactly how we will score points in those wins, but the D will be very good, and the OL will be better enough to improve both the running and passing games just enough.

Finally I reserve the right to change the prediction coming out of Spring (assuming we actually get some visibility into things like position battles and/or whether we can complete a forward pass against our own D).

that we will have an above average QB , don't need a star, but we do need a threst

and that the OL will perform a lot better than last year.. there are encouraging signs, but we will know a lot more after fresno state ..

The defense should be excellent, but the offense? if it were just one position, then I might be more optimistic, but QB, RB and OL are all question marks

Maybe it is time for us to get a bit lucky and have all of this fall into line in one year, but I am old school.. if there is a way for CAL to get screwed, it will happen

We are coming off our worst season under JT, we will be less at RB, about the same at WR, and no QB with positive experience. We can't win on the road and you think we will only lose 2 games, maybe less? The glass around here is half empty until proven otherwise.

GB54;492201 said:

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8-4 barring another Mansionesque quarterback performance.

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this.



maybe 9-3 if bridgford steadily improves and stays healthy.

GB54;492201 said:

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8-4 barring another Mansionesque quarterback performance.

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If you Tivo'd the games Mansion started, you have to take another look. He really isn't that bad. In the OSU game, he was getting killed by their pass rush. He overthrew receivers a couple of times, but contrary to what you think that may have been his intent. The receivers were covered reasonably well and he was on the run from the Dline guys. OTOH, he completed some nice passes and they were nullified by stupid holding calls or personal fouls. It was a tragedy. Twelve fouls, mostly in the first half, positively killed any chance we had.

I think of greater concern is the defense. The Beavers ran through us for big yardage time and again. I tried to focus on Cam Jordan, but he wasn't a great impact player in this game.

I can foresee that Ryan Katz is only going to get better and Marcus Wheaton has great speed and good hands. I think OSU will be a real challenge once again. I don't recall if Jacquizz is coming back or declared for the NFL. Let's hope he's gone.

bar20;492279 said:

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We are coming off our worst season under JT, we will be less at RB, about the same at WR, and no QB with positive experience. We can't win on the road and you think we will only lose 2 games, maybe less? The glass around here is half empty until proven otherwise.

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Why do you think we will be about the same at WR?
factors: better WR coach
Allen, a star, now in his second year.
Everyone with another year of experience etc...
I say the unit is better.

I also say the O-Line is a better unit than last year. A successful Coach M back and everyone with another year under their belt, a big deal for the O-Line.
Wark, Miller, and Ladner, I say, will also progress, so TE position a bit better.

Running back position has basically been a given under JT and Gould EVERY year. That's an 8 or 9 year track record.

Of course there is a HUGE question at the QB position.

However, I think the other units will be pretty solid.

Aren't we due for a breakout QB season?:p

drunkoski;492266 said:

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you realize you are arguing we are going to have our best season in 5 years despite a new qb, new rb, and losing our two best defensive players off of a 5-7 team. if you are going to troll. at least try to make it believable.

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"...losing our two best defensive players..."

I think if you break this down, it's not necessarily true. MM missed at least one full game and other partial games last year. When he played, he was pretty banged up. It really wasn't the true MM out there. I think one can make the argument that the LB unit as a whole this year will be better. Whiteside has star potential, Holt was excellent last year(probably better than MM) Kendricks has star potential etc... I'll take this year's unit.

Plus, factor in that this will be Clancy's SECOND YEAR. I think that it also a very big deal.

Losing Jordan is tough. He was a monster.

I can easily see better safety play and better CB play, however.

I feel pretty good about the D!

89Bear;492346 said:

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"...losing our two best defensive players..."

I think if you break this down, it's not necessarily true. MM missed at least one full game and other partial games last year. When he played, he was pretty banged up. It really wasn't the true MM out there. I think one can make the argument that the LB unit as a whole this year will be better. Whiteside has star potential, Holt was excellent last year(probably better than MM) Kendricks has star potential etc... I'll take this year's unit.

Plus, factor in that this will be Clancy's SECOND YEAR. I think that it also a very big deal.

Losing Jordan is tough. He was a monster.

I can easily see better safety play and better CB play, however.

I feel pretty good about the D!

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agreed - yes, we lose 2 very good players - but why do you think the others won't step up and be better? every college team loses great players every year - by DO's logic then every team would be worse every year, and they aren't

with 2nd year under the new system and very little turnover, we should be improved

on QB: agree that is still a question mark - I think Mansion can make strides, and if not am hoping Bridgford is the real deal; I don't think we need great QB play (or even good) - just decent; I'm not worried about RB - we've been solid there ever since Tedford arrived and see no reason to think we'll dip in performance from that position

I still think (from what I remember posting in similar discussions) we're a .500 team in 2011.

Fresno St: W
Colorado: W
Presbyterian: W
UW: W
UO: L
USC: L
Utah: L
UCLA: W
WSU: W
OSU: L
Stanford: L
ASU: L

SouthBayPhenom;492078 said:

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It would surprise you to learn how much I know... I know a lot. In fact, sometimes I amaze myself with my knowledge.

Many teams have question marks and unknowns, including us. However, while our QB may not be known today, we have 2-3 outstanding, highly regarded players who've now been in the program for a while under the tutelage of a known QB guru. I think I'll take my chances on one of them panning out. Plus, our defense is very well known (probably the best in the pac10), and will be better than last year's version.

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Wow. Where to start. First of all, Utah is clearly not 'scared' of big-time college football. They have beaten us the past two times we've played them and are 2-0 in BCS games. So much for that theory.

Moving on, you say we have 2-3 outstanding QB's, which just makes me laugh. Are they as outstanding as Joe Ayoob, Mansion, and Kyle Reed? We have no idea whether our QB's are even good, let alone 'outstanding'. Also, you chalk up a win against SC because 'they struggled mightily last year'. Umm, hello!? They beat the crap out of us last year and we haven't beaten them since 2003. Also, don't you think they probably have 2-3 'outstanding' players waiting to step up. They should, because they have out-recruited us for the past 50 years.

Perhaps you haven't been following Cal football because if you had, you'd know how much we STINK when we travel. Which is exactly why our road game in Boulder is far from a sure thing. Georgia -- a team that would have smacked us around last year -- lost in Boulder as did a nationally ranked West Virginia and Oklahoma the year before. Boulder is not an easy place to play -- especially when your team struggles to play any kind of defense on the road (we gave up 32 ppg last year on the road, which is terrible). Those stats would look even worse if USC (42 points in the first half) and Oregon State (28 points in the first half) weren't kind enough to remove their feet from our necks.
And come on, we haven't beaten Oregon State at home since... honestly, I can't remember the last time it happened. I still appreciate how you completely ignored reality in favor of blind-homerism.

SouthBayPhenom;492044 said:

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USC: W (we get them at home this year; they struggled mightily last season)

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Uhhh, they didn't really struggle against us. We trailed a team that was "struggling mightily" 42-0 at half, but your're confident that home field advantage gets us the W this year?

OzoneTheCat;492381 said:

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I still think (from what I remember posting in similar discussions) we're a .500 team in 2011.

Fresno St: W
Colorado: W
Presbyterian: W
UW: W
UO: L
USC: L
Utah: L
UCLA: W
WSU: W
OSU: L
Stanford: L
ASU: L

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I pretty much agree with this. We are 8-13 in November from 2005-2010.
I could see us beating ASU and losing to Colorado.

SouthBayPhenom;492051 said:

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No way we lose to Utah...

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Edzacharry what I thought before the Poinsettia bowl... :cry: Utah has heart.

cyrusthebear;492410 said:

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Edzacharry what I thought before the Poinsettia bowl... :cry: Utah has heart.

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I hear they play well on the road too. I wonder what that's like?

Why is it whenever someone mentions Tivo it is followed by an analysis where they went back on Tivo and convinced themselves by looking play by play that what they saw happen the first time didn't really happen

Yes he is that bad. If he starts, (which he won't) we are 3-9 at best and that is a stretch.

drunkoski;492389 said:

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we lose conte as well. i could see the D being as good as last year certainly. i can't see the offense being considerably better sans vereen unless we get a miracle at qb. other major factor is the schedule. far more brutal than last year. i'd be very happy with 8-4. in reality i think we are seeing 6-6 or 5-7.

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Yes, I certainly did forget about Conte. He had a tremendous season!!!!

Hopefully Cattouse can play well, consistently. He certainly has shown to be excellent on occasion!

CalGB94;492396 said:

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Uhhh, they didn't really struggle against us. We trailed a team that was "struggling mightily" 42-0 at half, but your're confident that home field advantage gets us the W this year?

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Yes - 100% confident.

...too many question marks at QB and RB for one. New coordinators coming in. Will the real Clancy P show up? What will happen to the OLIne with Coach M back? What will be the effect of NOT playing in Memorial?

And my favorite, is JT just too conservative and predictable for the Pac-10 or has it just been here too long and basically lost it?

What will Kiffin do at USC, is UCLA destructing with some great recruiting classes? What will the Divisional lineup do? Will Stanford be as good or mediocre with a new coach and a new OLine?

Way too much for now...sorry!

:gobears:

BearsLair72;492441 said:

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...too many question marks at QB and RB for one. New coordinators coming in. Will the real Clancy P show up? What will happen to the OLIne with Coach M back? What will be the effect of NOT playing in Memorial?

And my favorite, is JT just too conservative and predictable for the Pac-10 or has it just been here too long and basically lost it?

What will Kiffin do at USC, is UCLA destructing with some great recruiting classes? What will the Divisional lineup do? Will Stanford be as good or mediocre with a new coach and a new OLine?

Way too much for now...sorry!

:gobears:

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So, you'll be giving us your picks after the season then....savvy.

OzoneTheCat;492381 said:

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I still think (from what I remember posting in similar discussions) we're a .500 team in 2011.

Fresno St: W
Colorado: W
Presbyterian: W
UW: W
UO: L
USC: L
Utah: L
UCLA: W
WSU: W
OSU: L
Stanford: L
ASU: L

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So what you are saying is that Cal will be ranked in the top 25 after 4 games and then crash and burn. Hmmm. Sounds very familiar unfortunately.

tenplay;492450 said:

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So what you are saying is that Cal will be ranked in the top 25 after 4 games and then crash and burn. Hmmm. Sounds very familiar unfortunately.

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Yeah, I guess old habits (and memories) are difficult to dispel. Actually, when I finished that post I had a vision of Mariucci running off the field as we defeated USC to go 5-0. A national ranking was ours, we had toppled the "mighty" Trojans, the hills were alive with music, our savior had arrived....um...no.

OaktownBear;492414 said:

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Why is it whenever someone mentions Tivo it is followed by an analysis where they went back on Tivo and convinced themselves by looking play by play that what they saw happen the first time didn't really happen

Yes he is that bad. If he starts, (which he won't) we are 3-9 at best and that is a stretch.

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First, it was shown on Fox Sports last night. I was hoping you could see it again and would be able to confirm or deny your first impression. My first impression has certainly changed since seeing the game once again. However, if your mind is closed no sense in trying to convince you that you may be wrong. I hope you don't go through life that way.

Second, he isn't that bad. If we're 3-9 start analyzing our defensive coordinator. There's the real problem.

drunkoski;492471 said:

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the problem 6bear6 is you went into this viewing thinking he was horrible and therefore ANY decent play was a surprise. even the JT apologists over at the golden blogs have shown mansion to be one of the worst qbs in the pac-10. he WAS just that bad. worst qb we've seen since i can even remember. the oline did him no favors, but let's not turn a turd into lemonade here.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2011/3/22/2063961/2010-college-football-quarterback-qb-stats-kellen-moore-ultimate-adjusted-yards-per-attempt-rating

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Have to agree with this. Despite the commonly held belief that Ayoob was the worse quarterback of the Tedford era, it's not even close. He actually had some good games. Mansion did not.

GB54;492474 said:

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Have to agree with this. Despite the commonly held belief that Ayoob was the worse quarterback of the Tedford era, it's not even close. He actually had some good games. Mansion did not.

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He threw for 5 TD's in a road game at Husky Stadium. Brock Mansion couldn't throw 5 Td's in half a season.

Mansion wasn't bad - he was a complete, total and unmitigated disaster. As bad a Cal QB as I have seen since Kerry Mcgonigal...

No amount of Tivoing will ever change that fact...

P.S. Oaktown, you were exaggerating. If Mansion starts, Cal goes 1-11 (only a narrow win over the Presbies would prevent a whitewash of a season)...

71Bear;492530 said:

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Mansion wasn't bad - he was a complete, total and unmitigated disaster. As bad a Cal QB as I have seen since Kerry Mcgonigal...

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Or to put it another way, if Mansion wasn't bad, Riley was a miracle worker, because he was worlds better than Mansion.

71Bear;492530 said:

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Mansion wasn't bad - he was a complete, total and unmitigated disaster. As bad a Cal QB as I have seen since Kerry Mcgonigal...

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That he was. And let's not forget the fact that apparently Sweeney was so bad that Tedford couldn't even consider pulling Mansion. This supposed 5 way QB competition had better be a sham. It's at most a 3 way QB competition because we have 2 guys with a combined 7 seasons to prove conclusively that they can't play at this level. If either one of those guys is our starter, we'll win 2 or 3 games tops.

If kcal9 is correct that Hinder is still not ready, then we can only hope that either Bridgford or Maynard are. Otherwise it'll be a long and painful season.

I think that its fair to say with improved line play, improved wr play and Bridgford or Maynard at the helm, we will be 8-4 maybe 9-3.

drunkoski;492471 said:

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the problem 6bear6 is you went into this viewing thinking he was horrible and therefore ANY decent play was a surprise. reminds me of after the USC game where the goldenblogs looked at the tape and came to the conclusion that our qbs and D played pretty well. rofl. even the JT apologists over at the golden blogs have shown mansion to be one of the worst qbs in the pac-10. he WAS just that bad. worst qb we've seen since i can even remember. the oline did him no favors, but let's not turn a turd into lemonade here.

http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2011/3/22/2063961/2010-college-football-quarterback-qb-stats-kellen-moore-ultimate-adjusted-yards-per-attempt-rating

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nice work by the cgb crew there.... mansion was beyond bad.

I always start the season with a 12-0 prediction. I will adjust my prediction throughout the year, usually after Cal loses a game. I am always right on by the end of the year. I usually post my predictions and my adjustments on the whiteboard in my Columbus, OH office. My colleagues (99% of which are Buckeye fans) are always impressed by my accuracy.

I also go into each season believing we cold go 12-0, but realistically, I think 7-5 is likely and 8-4 is easily doable.

This assumes Mansion will not be the starter and either Bridgeford or Maynard will be. Still tons of unknown in the offense but I trust the players will be coached to improvement.

The defense will be solid and will win some games for us.

Games we can lose (and likely will): USC, Utah, Oregon, ASU, Washington (sorry, this could be a real trap game). Utah and USC are "home" games and if the Bears are hungry enough, could be wins. The away games will be tougher.

So, best case 9-3, likely case 7-5.

GO BEARS!! We're with you WIN or [SIZE="1"]win[/SIZE]! :cheer:cheer:cheer

Want to see:

A. Who is the QB
B. Who steps up into the full time RB position
C. And probably watch a game or two or at least see what Spring practice shows.
D. See how the sportswriters handicap the Pac-12

All those things...but I am not overly optimistic at this point and figure we are in for another 6-8 win season at best. We will see and that is why they play the games.

OzoneTheCat;492448 said:

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So, you'll be giving us your picks after the season then....savvy.

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Lafayette Bear - I think you hit the nail on the head.