With each team only playing 3 games so far this season and having no common opponents the statistical analysis is a bit difficult. However, even with the lack of a full number of data points we can look over the numbers and get some impressions.

(note: I use cfbstats.com for all of the statistics I'm quoting here.)

First impression should simply be scoring. How well does Cal's scoring offense compare to UW's defense and the opposite. Well, here we can start to get an impression

Cal scoring offense - 4th in the conference at 45.0 points per game.
UW scoring Defense - 12th in the conference at 36.7 points per game

Obviously UW has struggled to keep teams out of the end zone so far. And Eastern Washington cannot be considered a top level opponent, so even if we consider Cal's numbers inflated for playing Presby, UW's would be deflated by playing E Washington. The surmise would be that Cal should be able to score on Washington.

Cal scoring defense - 5th in the conference at 22.0 points per game
UW scoring offense - 5th in the conference at 36.0 points per game

Yes, right now UW has allowed more points than they have scored. And most of us know that Cal has allowed 24 points on either short fields or defensive TDs. The impression is that Cal will be difficult to score against and should have an advantage here, but that UW can score.

So... the initial impression is that Cal has a scoring advantage, although this comparison does not look at home v away and Cal did have a much poorer defensive game in Colorado than at the 2 home games.

However, we can look a bit more closely at the defenses.

First an interesting stat is big plays allowed. Here we have
Cal - 1st in the conference (has only allowed 28 offensive plays of 10 yards or more.)
UW - 10th in the conference (has allowed 42 offensive plays of 10 yards or more).

Obviously Pendergast's defense does a rather solid job of keeping plays in front of them, although Cal does have the dubious distinction of being the only Pac-12 team to allow 2 plays of 60 or more yards. (when they make mistakes they can go really big.)

We can also look at the push at the line by looking not at sacks, but at total tackles for loss.

Cal - #2 in the conference 25 TFL for 99 yards lost 8.33 per game
Washington - #9 in the conference 12 TFL for 38 yards lost 4.0 per game

Washington doesn't appear to be doing too well at getting penetration into the backfield while Cal actually has had some success.

Of course we can also look at the O-line the same way and review tackles for loss allowed.

Cal - #7 in the conference. 13 TFL allowed 66 yards lost. 4.33 per game.
UW - #3T in the conference. 12 TFL allowed 49 yards lost. 4.00 per game.

UW does a little better. I did a quick check and found that Cal has 45 yards lost on sacks. Maynard's habit of running backwards under pressure has inflated the average yards lost a bit since those count in the TFL yards as well. Not counting sacks Cal has allowed 8 TFL for 21 yards. UW is 5 TFL for 10 yards when you remove their 7 sacks allowed.

So both teams have a bit of trouble on QB protection, but otherwise don't allow many tackles for loss. I found this a bit surprising for UW as their fans talk about Polk having to create yards.

So lets look at running the football.
Best runner
Cal - Sofele #5 in conference 61 att 277 yards 4.54 YPC
UW - Polk #2 in conference 67 att 362 yards 5.2 YPC

Polk is getting more yards per carry and clearly is the lead of the two.

Team totals though.
Cal - #4 in conference 118 att 536 yards 4.54 YPC
UW - #7 in conference 103 att 445 yards 4.32 YPC

now Cal is far in the lead and UW is shown to have Polk and not much else for a running game. interesting.

And the defenses against the run

Cal - #2 83 att, 196 yards, 2.36 YPC
UW - #8 94 att, 395 yards, 4.2 YPC

OUCH! UW does not look like they stop the run very well, especially when you consider that Eastern washington and Hawaii are spread offenses that prefer to pass first. I'd say running game advantage Cal

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Passing would be the next question

offense
Cal - #8 in the conference - 277.3 yards per game
UW - #10 in the conference - 230.3 yards per game

Defense
Cal - #5 in the conference - 217.3 yards per game
UW - #12 in the conference - 320.3 yards per game.

I could take this into far more detail. examining everything from yards per attempt to TDs to passer rating, but the yard totals show the disparity. UW had not done a good job stopping the pass through 3 games. They are tied for 2nd in the conference on INTs with 3 (Cal and Oregon also have 3, Utah has 4). Overall, I'd say that based on the opponents this is probably best called EVEN since Cal did get torched for 400 yards against Colorado. (by a senior QB who had no injury issues. Price supposedly has 2 hurting knees and is in his first year starting.)

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Conclusion.

As others have said, its going to depend on which Cal team shows up. Cal has been very good on defense at home and if that defense shows up, or even the defense that played the first half at Colorado (the Buffaloes did most of their damage and big plays in the second half.) Cal should be able to stop UW. I think we can rely on Cal's offense putting up 25-30 points even in an away game. Maynard has been consistent in leading the offense when penalties don't push them backwards.

If Cal doesn't come out strong though, and the fans can get the O-line rattled, it could be a long day for the defense and they could tire. We don't have a lot of depth in the DBs and I think that more than anything contributed to the problems against Colorado.

We're going to have to do a whole lot better job stopping Jermaine Kearse than we did stopping Paul Richardson. Pendergast is going to need a better plan in order to make sure that Kearse doesn't burn us with the favorable 1-on-1 matchups that Colorado was able to exploit against the defense.

Our young, talented front 7 guys will also have two more weeks under their belt to cut down on mistakes.

Price's health may play a big role in the game as well. If he's slowed by his injury, Cal may be able to take advantage of that as well.

If this game were a home game, I think Cal would be the favored team. Overall, I'm optimistic that UW is beatable and that Cal has some matchups we can win. However, the game is on the road in a very tough environment, and that's always a scary proposition.

mvargus;573809 said:

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With each team only playing 3 games so far this season and having no common opponents the statistical analysis is a bit difficult. However, even with the lack of a full number of data points we can look over the numbers and get some impressions.

(note: I use cfbstats.com for all of the statistics I'm quoting here.)

First impression should simply be scoring. How well does Cal's scoring offense compare to UW's defense and the opposite. Well, here we can start to get an impression

Cal scoring offense - 4th in the conference at 45.0 points per game.
UW scoring Defense - 12th in the conference at 36.7 points per game

Obviously UW has struggled to keep teams out of the end zone so far. And Eastern Washington cannot be considered a top level opponent, so even if we consider Cal's numbers inflated for playing Presby, UW's would be deflated by playing E Washington. The surmise would be that Cal should be able to score on Washington.

Cal scoring defense - 5th in the conference at 22.0 points per game
UW scoring offense - 5th in the conference at 36.0 points per game

Yes, right now UW has allowed more points than they have scored. And most of us know that Cal has allowed 24 points on either short fields or defensive TDs. The impression is that Cal will be difficult to score against and should have an advantage here, but that UW can score.

So... the initial impression is that Cal has a scoring advantage, although this comparison does not look at home v away and Cal did have a much poorer defensive game in Colorado than at the 2 home games.

However, we can look a bit more closely at the defenses.

First an interesting stat is big plays allowed. Here we have
Cal - 1st in the conference (has only allowed 28 offensive plays of 10 yards or more.)
UW - 10th in the conference (has allowed 42 offensive plays of 10 yards or more).

Obviously Pendergast's defense does a rather solid job of keeping plays in front of them, although Cal does have the dubious distinction of being the only Pac-12 team to allow 2 plays of 60 or more yards. (when they make mistakes they can go really big.)

We can also look at the push at the line by looking not at sacks, but at total tackles for loss.

Cal - #2 in the conference 25 TFL for 99 yards lost 8.33 per game
Washington - #9 in the conference 12 TFL for 38 yards lost 4.0 per game

Washington doesn't appear to be doing too well at getting penetration into the backfield while Cal actually has had some success.

Of course we can also look at the O-line the same way and review tackles for loss allowed.

Cal - #7 in the conference. 13 TFL allowed 66 yards lost. 4.33 per game.
UW - #3T in the conference. 12 TFL allowed 49 yards lost. 4.00 per game.

UW does a little better. I did a quick check and found that Cal has 45 yards lost on sacks. Maynard's habit of running backwards under pressure has inflated the average yards lost a bit since those count in the TFL yards as well. Not counting sacks Cal has allowed 8 TFL for 21 yards. UW is 5 TFL for 10 yards when you remove their 7 sacks allowed.

So both teams have a bit of trouble on QB protection, but otherwise don't allow many tackles for loss. I found this a bit surprising for UW as their fans talk about Polk having to create yards.

So lets look at running the football.
Best runner
Cal - Sofele #5 in conference 61 att 277 yards 4.54 YPC
UW - Polk #2 in conference 67 att 362 yards 5.2 YPC

Polk is getting more yards per carry and clearly is the lead of the two.

Team totals though.
Cal - #4 in conference 118 att 536 yards 4.54 YPC
UW - #7 in conference 103 att 445 yards 4.32 YPC

now Cal is far in the lead and UW is shown to have Polk and not much else for a running game. interesting.

And the defenses against the run

Cal - #2 83 att, 196 yards, 2.36 YPC
UW - #8 94 att, 395 yards, 4.2 YPC

OUCH! UW does not look like they stop the run very well, especially when you consider that Eastern washington and Hawaii are spread offenses that prefer to pass first. I'd say running game advantage Cal

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Passing would be the next question

offense
Cal - #8 in the conference - 277.3 yards per game
UW - #10 in the conference - 230.3 yards per game

Defense
Cal - #5 in the conference - 217.3 yards per game
UW - #12 in the conference - 320.3 yards per game.

I could take this into far more detail. examining everything from yards per attempt to TDs to passer rating, but the yard totals show the disparity. UW had not done a good job stopping the pass through 3 games. They are tied for 2nd in the conference on INTs with 3 (Cal and Oregon also have 3, Utah has 4). Overall, I'd say that based on the opponents this is probably best called EVEN since Cal did get torched for 400 yards against Colorado. (by a senior QB who had no injury issues. Price supposedly has 2 hurting knees and is in his first year starting.)

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Conclusion.

As others have said, its going to depend on which Cal team shows up. Cal has been very good on defense at home and if that defense shows up, or even the defense that played the first half at Colorado (the Buffaloes did most of their damage and big plays in the second half.) Cal should be able to stop UW. I think we can rely on Cal's offense putting up 25-30 points even in an away game. Maynard has been consistent in leading the offense when penalties don't push them backwards.

If Cal doesn't come out strong though, and the fans can get the O-line rattled, it could be a long day for the defense and they could tire. We don't have a lot of depth in the DBs and I think that more than anything contributed to the problems against Colorado.

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Thanks, this is very interesting. I would make the following additional points.

1. You didn't compare special teams play, but I can't imagine anyone in the conference has done it worse than us so far (3 blocked PATs and a punt blocked for TD, plus very short kickoffs last week). Advantage UW?

2. I like the fact that this it is not rainy season in Seattle. Neutral.

3. A few months back, some guy on ESPN.com (I think) had an article in which he argued that the best predictor of success in the NFL was passing efficiency rating differential (your offense's passing efficiency rating minus the PER allowed by your team's defense). The leaders in that stat are typically in the Super Bowl. It may or may not translate to the college game but for what it's worth, here are the 2011 conference stats to date (own PER minus PER allowed):

O: 168-103= 65
Stan: 177-129 = 48
WSU: 164-126 = 38
SC: 157-120 = 37
UW: 164-129 = 35
Cal: 137-113 = 24
ASU 155-131 = 24
CU 141-130 = 11
UA 162-155 = 7
UU 117=114 = 3
UCLA 130-135 = -5
OSU 111-179 = -68

Yes, we are like 9th in PER but 2nd in PER allowed.

calbear77x;573813 said:

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We're going to have to do a whole lot better job stopping Jermaine Kearse than we did stopping Paul Richardson. Pendergast is going to need a better plan in order to make sure that Kearse doesn't burn us with the favorable 1-on-1 matchups that Colorado was able to exploit against the defense.

Our young, talented front 7 guys will also have two more weeks under their belt to cut down on mistakes.

Price's health may play a big role in the game as well. If he's slowed by his injury, Cal may be able to take advantage of that as well.

If this game were a home game, I think Cal would be the favored team. Overall, I'm optimistic that UW is beatable and that Cal has some matchups we can win. However, the game is on the road in a very tough environment, and that's always a scary proposition.

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Especially in the 2nd-half (when they ate us alive!). Our DB's were winded, and sucking air left and right! This HAD to be a factor in the CO comeback, even if they did completely pants us.

BearGeorge;573869 said:

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Especially in the 2nd-half (when they ate us alive!). Our DB's were winded, and sucking air left and right! This HAD to be a factor in the CO comeback, even if they did completely pants us.

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BG, you are right, I feel. We don't have the luxury to sub db's like d-linemen, depth-wise. They were gassed. Must have been a helpless feeling out there on that island...

The last I checked, Husky stadium is at or near sea level.

No team wants to make "excuses", so you won't hear it said, at least not much, and we have not. I know what I saw though and I know how elevation affects the body first-hand. Also, as some here might remember, Anthony got whacked pretty good just before the half. I don't how much a factor that was, but it might have been too...

What did Richardson do against the mighty CSU D? Four catches for 27 yards. In the game before us (Hawaii), three for 49 yds. Not saying he's a bad wr of course, but he's not the next DJ, at least not at this stage.

Thanks for putting that together. Here's my 2 cents -

EW is much better than Preb. The EW kids get psyched out of their minds to play UW because many were snubbed and not recruited by UW. It's not even close to the same.

Cal gave up almost 600 yards of offense to Colorado. UW has a better offense than Colorado. UW put 38 up on the road against the big red machine. No way no how do I expect Cal's defense to be tough to score on. If we hold them under 30 (and I definitely expect at least 1 Maynard pick), I'll eat all of my dirty Cal hats. Price can throw and he has a lot of targets. Polk will probalby play on Sundays.

I expect more of a shoot out game with both defenses really struggling to get stops. These are not the kind of games that Tedford manages well as he seems to basically make decisions as if he had the 85 Chicago Bear defense. Instead of looking to find a way to get extra possesions and points (onsides kick, surprise fake punt, 2 pt conversion, etc.), he will play it close to the vest making it harder for us to win.

All that said, Washington's defense is not that good. If we play hard and relatively error free for 60 minutes, we should have a chance. Unfortunately, I can see our defense giving up a score at the end just after Tedford eschews a chance to get a first down and run out the clock, but conservatively runs it up the gut to get their last timeout and punts. He'll look on in disgust as UW moves the ball down the field as the clock stops on each first down giving plenty of time for UW to move into field goal position.

pappysghost;573923 said:

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Thanks for putting that together. Here's my 2 cents -

EW is much better than Preb. The EW kids get psyched out of their minds to play UW because many were snubbed and not recruited by UW. It's not even close to the same.

Cal gave up almost 600 yards of offense to Colorado. UW has a better offense than Colorado. UW put 38 up on the road against the big red machine. No way no how do I expect Cal's defense to be tough to score on. If we hold them under 30 (and I definitely expect at least 1 Maynard pick), I'll eat all of my dirty Cal hats. Price can throw and he has a lot of targets. Polk will probalby play on Sundays.

I expect more of a shoot out game with both defenses really struggling to get stops. These are not the kind of games that Tedford manages well as he seems to basically make decisions as if he had the 85 Chicago Bear defense. Instead of looking to find a way to get extra possesions and points (onsides kick, surprise fake punt, 2 pt conversion, etc.), he will play it close to the vest making it harder for us to win.

All that said, Washington's defense is not that good. If we play hard and relatively error free for 60 minutes, we should have a chance. Unfortunately, I can see our defense giving up a score at the end just after Tedford eschews a chance to get a first down and run out the clock, but conservatively runs it up the gut to get their last timeout and punts. He'll look on in disgust as UW moves the ball down the field as the clock stops on each first down giving plenty of time for UW to move into field goal position.

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If this game turns into a shootout we are going to lose. Our defense has to pressure the QB, hold down Polk, and break up passes.

If our D plays lights out we win

pappysghost;573923 said:

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Thanks for putting that together. Here's my 2 cents -

EW is much better than Preb. The EW kids get psyched out of their minds to play UW because many were snubbed and not recruited by UW. It's not even close to the same.

Cal gave up almost 600 yards of offense to Colorado. UW has a better offense than Colorado. UW put 38 up on the road against the big red machine. No way no how do I expect Cal's defense to be tough to score on. If we hold them under 30 (and I definitely expect at least 1 Maynard pick), I'll eat all of my dirty Cal hats. Price can throw and he has a lot of targets. Polk will probalby play on Sundays.

I expect more of a shoot out game with both defenses really struggling to get stops. These are not the kind of games that Tedford manages well as he seems to basically make decisions as if he had the 85 Chicago Bear defense. Instead of looking to find a way to get extra possesions and points (onsides kick, surprise fake punt, 2 pt conversion, etc.), he will play it close to the vest making it harder for us to win.

All that said, Washington's defense is not that good. If we play hard and relatively error free for 60 minutes, we should have a chance. Unfortunately, I can see our defense giving up a score at the end just after Tedford eschews a chance to get a first down and run out the clock, but conservatively runs it up the gut to get their last timeout and punts. He'll look on in disgust as UW moves the ball down the field as the clock stops on each first down giving plenty of time for UW to move into field goal position.

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This is a good post, esp. the part about the Chicago bears. I just hope you're wrong.

we need to double Kearse and stop Polk...

I disagree. Tedford rarely loses if they score more than 30. Nevada last year, and then go back to 2005 at UCLA and then back to 2002.

There are many other games where both teams are over 30 points and the bears come out ahead - including on the road at Colorado this year.

The Bears do not lose very often if they score 30 points. And they will do so this week. I think the Huskies will score - they are good. But we also have dynamic college playmakers - big wide receivers who will pick the huskies apart, and speedy running backs who they do not know a whole bunch about yet. They are preparing for Sofele. We bring Bigelow and Anderson.

When Clancy has our defense working - we shut people down and it's fairly apparent from the get go. Last year we lost 3 of those games because our offense had nothing. This year, when we have the Clancy shut down defense we will win games. I don't know that we have a way of predicting when our defense will pitch a gem (like against Oregon) or come up with something horrid (SC), but I feel pretty good saying that with the 2011 offense, we will put up enough points to win every time our defense shows up.

Bottom line, I don't have a prediction, but recent history will have me looking very closely at how our defense performs in the first half on Saturday. If we're playing them tight, I think we'll win the game in impressive fashion. If not - it could come down to the wire and will depend on who has the ball last.

pappysghost;573923 said:

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Thanks for putting that together. Here's my 2 cents -

EW is much better than Preb. The EW kids get psyched out of their minds to play UW because many were snubbed and not recruited by UW. It's not even close to the same.

Cal gave up almost 600 yards of offense to Colorado. UW has a better offense than Colorado. UW put 38 up on the road against the big red machine. No way no how do I expect Cal's defense to be tough to score on. If we hold them under 30 (and I definitely expect at least 1 Maynard pick), I'll eat all of my dirty Cal hats. Price can throw and he has a lot of targets. Polk will probalby play on Sundays.

I expect more of a shoot out game with both defenses really struggling to get stops. These are not the kind of games that Tedford manages well as he seems to basically make decisions as if he had the 85 Chicago Bear defense. Instead of looking to find a way to get extra possesions and points (onsides kick, surprise fake punt, 2 pt conversion, etc.), he will play it close to the vest making it harder for us to win.

All that said, Washington's defense is not that good. If we play hard and relatively error free for 60 minutes, we should have a chance. Unfortunately, I can see our defense giving up a score at the end just after Tedford eschews a chance to get a first down and run out the clock, but conservatively runs it up the gut to get their last timeout and punts. He'll look on in disgust as UW moves the ball down the field as the clock stops on each first down giving plenty of time for UW to move into field goal position.

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Wow. Pretty clear you don't have very high regard for our coach's decisions.

But your 2 cents are way off the mark. The key to this game is defense. Tedford has a lot of faith in the defense and well he should. The Bears must contain Polk (the only real running threat UW has) and make life difficult for Price. I think they will do this. The Dogs will score but, stay hungry Pappysghost, cause you may well be eating dirty hats for Saturday dinner. If the Dogs top 30 points, I doubt the defense will be the culprit, but rather, as in previous games, errors by the offense and special teams.

On offense, I have seen enough of Maynard to have faith in his ability to make things happen on offense. If only he was there at the final game last year! Cal will score points....plenty of them. Maynard will find his receivers and make the plays necessary. Cal will use multiple looks on offense and we will see more of CJ Anderson and Bigelow in addition to Sofele. These folks will combine to outrun Polk and establish the running game that will keep the Dogs defense on their heels.

Cal will win this one and the conservative calls at the end of the game will run the clock out on Washington.

That's my 2 cents but if I am wrong, I will not volunteer to eat hats, dirty or otherwise.

Go Bears!

"If we play hard and relatively error free for 60 minutes, we should have a chance." Pappy, if this happens we win by double digits...it's the "error free" part of your thesis that's the wild card. 0-1 turnovers, we're in great shape...2 turnovers, it's a dogfight (pun intended)...3+ turnovers, we're doomed

Last year we were one play from beating UW with a totally ineffective Mansion at QB whereas UW had a healthy Jake Locker at QB and a much better D. A huge improvement for us versus a big drop for them. If Pendergast stacks the line against Polk and puts a strong rush on their inexperienced and hurting QB, it could get ugly in our favor quickly. :beer:

BearGeorge;573869 said:

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Especially in the 2nd-half (when they ate us alive!). Our DB's were winded, and sucking air left and right! This HAD to be a factor in the CO comeback, even if they did completely pants us.

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Yah, I have to think so as well. If you saw the interview with KA immediately after the game he was gasping for air and could barely get a word out. That was after CU went first in overtime and then after just a handful of plays.

pappysghost;573923 said:

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UW put 38 up on the road against the big red machine.

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... and FSU put up 29. "Big Red Machine" is having issues on D this year, please don't pretend they are some juggernaut on that side of the ball.

Buffs have a HUGE home advantage, especially against a sea level team. I have relatives in Denver area and used to make regular visits. I am sea level.
That altitude difference is a killer. Strong exertion and you feel like you can't breathe and are going to die. I don't buy that line that you recover quickly. You don't, at least not quick enough.

elpbear;574058 said:

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Yah, I have to think so as well. If you saw the interview with KA immediately after the game he was gasping for air and could barely get a word out. That was after CU went first in overtime and then after just a handful of plays.

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Very good observation. I saw that video also. A few plays (after a break) for a 20 year old athlete would not normally having him suck air like that. These kids dug deep, and I love it. I'd imagine on D, where one can't "rest" on a play or cut-down on the exertion a tad because the player's role is less integral (as is the case on O sometimes), it's worse.

I really hope our preparations are a different next time...

Seattle now... Our Bears are in many ways a road team, in all games, taking transportation to games and staying in a hotel. Sucks when "home", but I feel will make us better in some ways when not at AT&T...

elpbear;574058 said:

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Yah, I have to think so as well. If you saw the interview with KA immediately after the game he was gasping for air and could barely get a word out. That was after CU went first in overtime and then after just a handful of plays.

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It was also after KA made an awesome catch leaping up over 2 defenders and sprinting for a 32 yard completion, after the fade route and catch for a td to seal the game AND after running and jumping around the field celebrating with his teammates, yelling and screaming. That might have made him more winded than the altitude or even the length of the game really.

I don't believe the PER differential translates to the college game at all. If it did, Army would beat Navy every year, and the reverse is true. It may be valid in the NFL because everyone runs more or less the same offense, and lives/dies by qb performance. Offenses are just too different from each other in college, though. In your analysis, WSU destroys UU or ASU, for example.

+1 on the EWU assessment. They are a very potent offensive team (even if 0-3) and were extremely motivated against UW. They're immensely better than Presby. Elevation aside, Nebraska is a much better team, especially at home, than Colorado. Hawaii vs. FSU may be the key barometer. FSU has much the same motivation against Cal that EWU has against UW so their performance against us might be a high point in their season. Hawaii pretty much shot themselves in the foot getting down 21-0 before coming back to make it respectable. I don't think comparative stats mean much at this stage due to the disparity of opposition. If Price is close to healthy, we'll need to be a lot better defensively than we have been to win. I think we can contain Polk but will probably need to put the secondary at risk to do so and UW may have the deepest set of quality receivers in the conference. We also need to clean up mistakes. Maynard may be able to overcome 1 TO but more might be fatal, we need to cut down penalties and we've already had a season's worth of ST blunders.