OK, so what are our chances for Shaq? 25%? 50%?

12,165 Views | 64 Replies | Last: 14 yr ago by ShajMaster12
LessMilesMoreTedford
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It's getting awfully trolly in here.
Cal_Fan2
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">LessMilesMoreTedford;695151 said:</div><hr>It's getting awfully trolly in here.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />No kidding...after reading some of the whiny cry baby posts today, I would think some of these posters would be better off killing themselves to put them out of their misery...of course, these same guys who are doom and gloom will be the first ones to celebrate if we get Shaq....no better than the bandwagon Sc fans..
kevsf1980
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Shaq is feeling more Oregon than UW. He's going to CAL or Oregon and not UW. Sark, that hiring has failed to lure a 5 star, and Sark might actually lose 2 QB's to de-commits. They lose Jason Thompson to Wyoming, Cyler Myles might be going to Bama and Nick Montana transferred to a C.C. in Texas.
GivemTheAxe
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">rcs15;695120 said:</div><hr>Lot of good the new facilities did. They don't mean anything now that the only person capable of selling them to the 5 star recruits bounced.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />I know that you are a troll. <br /><br />But to respond to your comment, how can you not expect To$h's betrayal to have some effect on some of the recruits who were on the fence THIS SEASON.<br /><br />But get a life. How stupid are you (or more to the point, how stupid do you think the readers are) to write off the new facilities and all recruiting as being dependent on one asst coach.<br /><br />I hope that you enjoy To$h's recruiting efforts for UW over the next few years.<br />And if he is successful, I hope you feel real comfortable with his recruiting for UW (never knowing when he will turn on your school). <br /><br />There is a reason why Benedict Arnold died lonely and in disgrace in England.
manus
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">geejeff;695118 said:</div><hr>Shaq not coming to Cal. He took off the Cal promos on Twitter a while ago. He speaks and shows his feelings. It was already 50/50 after Tosh left. Now that Arik is at Oregon...it's slim to none that Shaq goes to Cal. I guess Shaq was never a true Cal guy. You don't ditch a school based on one assistant coach. Most current Cal guys won't leave because Tosh left us. It's the school. I like the fact that a guy like Zach Kline was Cal all the way! I love Shaq as a player, but he doesn't bleed Cal. If he does...sure doesn't show it.<hr></blockquote><br />+1
annarborbear
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">upsetof86;695070 said:</div><hr>if he had nuts he wouldnt have left in the middle of the night. Get him a gift certificate for a new dress at Lane Bryant, big and tall girls..<hr></blockquote><br /><br />The good news is we won't have to see his face in Berkeley again, except on game days with UW, at which time he will need to be accompanied by heavy private security.
Sole Control
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">LocoOso;695030 said:</div><hr>I think it is now quite likely we will not get Shaq, Bryce Treggs or Jordan Payton. Payton probably the most likely to stick with Cal. <br /><br />I think Shaq and Treggs are gone.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />I can accept losing Shaq. He has been mercurial during the entire recruiting process. However, if Treggs doesn't end up at Cal then the terrorists have truly won.
KoreAmBear
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">geejeff;695118 said:</div><hr>Shaq not coming to Cal. He took off the Cal promos on Twitter a while ago. He speaks and shows his feelings. It was already 50/50 after Tosh left. Now that Arik is at Oregon...it's slim to none that Shaq goes to Cal. I guess Shaq was never a true Cal guy. You don't ditch a school based on one assistant coach. Most current Cal guys won't leave because Tosh left us. It's the school. I like the fact that a guy like Zach Kline was Cal all the way! I love Shaq as a player, but he doesn't bleed Cal. If he does...sure doesn't show it.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />Does this mean Payton is in because he left his Cal hat on in his Twitter profile pic?
LasVegasBearof79
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3.1458674934867548393857%
GivemTheAxe
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">rcs15;695313 said:</div><hr>They weren't on the fence before Tosh left. You have to be blind not to see Tosh was the #1 reason all these guys came.<br /><br />If it was the facilities why are they leaving?<hr></blockquote><br /><br />I hate to get into an argument with a Troll since you do not want an honest debate but only want one resolution.<br /><br />But to answer your question. If they were coming to Cal only becuase To$h was here, why is AA going to Oregon.
Ukrainian
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[SIZE="3"][COLOR="Blue"]<b>Screw the star ratings ... give me 25 Mikey Mo's and we'll take on anybody, anywhere, any time !!!!</b>[/COLOR][/SIZE]
BerlinerBaer
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On Dawgman everyone is convinced Shaq is following AA to Oregon. Not to say that those guys know anything...<br /><br />Meanwhile, the scout tracker has Shaq still signing with Cal. Not to say that those guys know anything...
CALiforniALUM
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">Ukrainian;695477 said:</div><hr>[SIZE=3][COLOR=Blue]<b>Screw the star ratings ... give me 25 Mikey Mo's and we'll take on anybody, anywhere, any time !!!!</b>[/COLOR][/SIZE]<hr></blockquote><br /><br /><br /><br />This. Just as a coach doesn't make a program, neither does a 5* recruit or 4. I'd also like 25 Alex Macks on the OL to run 6 yards and a cloud of golden dust.
NJCalFan
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if not to Cal, I hope out of the Pac12. If to the PAc12, I hope to Oregon. That would be a pure backfire on the part of the UW subterfuge.
Ace4eVer
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">NJCalFan;695529 said:</div><hr>if not to Cal, I hope out of the Pac12. If to the PAc12, I hope to Oregon. That would be a pure backfire on the part of the UW subterfuge.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />Unfortunately, this is how I feel as well. I'm terrified at what Kelly can do with elite athletes on D but to see Shaq go to UW would be too much for me. I don't think he has an OOC option.<br /><br />As for the OP, the odds sound pretty low right now, but anything goes this recruiting season I guess.
philly1121
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">510Bear;695034 said:</div><hr>Not sure I agree, but I'm wondering if all the post-lupoi talk on here about how "recruits follow schools, not people" was just a bunch of Kool-Aid sunshine pumping. <img src="<img src="<img src="<img src="<img src="" />" />" />" />"><br /><br />Just like how a bunch of posters kept going on about how Cal offers a superior education. Look, that's definitely true and one of the things that make us proud of this school every day, but if you think it's the trump card in college FB recruiting, you need to wake up and realize it's not 1964 anymore.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />I think you've got something here. In business and in life, a personal connection or "gut feel" is essential. The face of the Cal Football program and the University of California, was presented to these recruits by two men - Tosh and Jeff. It seems like Tosh moreso. And if this is the case, which I think is true, then if the one connection that you had to the program and the university leaves, then you have no connection or pull. <br /><br />Plus I think we have to understand that this "education" thing really isn't relevant to a 4 or 5 star recruit. There is greater than a 50% chance that they will be playing in the NFL. Why would education be their top priority anyway?<br /><br />If this is true, then a kid's personal connection to the university is really the pull. And if that connection leaves, there's really nothing left to offer for that 4-5 star recruit.
72CalBear
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">philly1121;695538 said:</div><hr>I think you've got something here. In business and in life, a personal connection or "gut feel" is essential. The face of the Cal Football program and the University of California, was presented to these recruits by two men - Tosh and Jeff. It seems like Tosh moreso. And if this is the case, which I think is true, then if the one connection that you had to the program and the university leaves, then you have no connection or pull. <br /><br />Plus I think we have to understand that this "education" thing really isn't relevant to a 4 or 5 star recruit. There is greater than a 50% chance that they will be playing in the NFL. Why would education be their top priority anyway?<br /><br />If this is true, then a kid's personal connection to the university is really the pull. And if that connection leaves, there's really nothing left to offer for that 4-5 star recruit.<hr></blockquote><br /><br /><br />This makes alot of sense. We had a 4 star player here at our high school pick one P12 school over another because he was offered #1 on his jersey, and the team was sponsored by Adidas, not Nike..Amazing..These are 17 year old prima donnas with stars in their eyes, and we feed that..
freshfunk
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">philly1121;695538 said:</div><hr><br />Plus I think we have to understand that this "education" thing really isn't relevant to a 4 or 5 star recruit. There is greater than a 50% chance that they will be playing in the NFL. Why would education be their top priority anyway?<br /><hr></blockquote><br /><br />50% chance? Really?<br /><br />If you took all 4/5 star recruits from the last 5 years, would you find half of them in the NFL? <br /><br />I would maybe say 50% of 5 star recruits make it. That means they play one year. I think many don't make it beyond 3 and a smaller percentage of that will be on the first team and be making buku-dollars. Look at how many CFB players there are (every year) and then look at how many NFL players (actually playing on Sundays) there are. It's a huge drop.
HaloBear
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;695555 said:</div><hr>50% chance? Really?<br /><br />If you took all 4/5 star recruits from the last 5 years, would you find half of them in the NFL? <br /><br />I would maybe say 50% of 5 star recruits make it. That means they play one year. I think many don't make it beyond 3 and a smaller percentage of that will be on the first team and be making buku-dollars. Look at how many CFB players there are (every year) and then look at how many NFL players (actually playing on Sundays) there are. It's a huge drop.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />This is something Cal should hammer away at. We should note that not only does Cal have one of the best NFL placement rates, if you aren't able to make the NFL, the Cal degree offers more than that which one would get from another school, most of which don't get the same number of players into the NFL. <br /><br />There has to be some way of effectively articulating that without seeming like football isn't a big deal at Cal.
socaltownie
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">HaloBear;695575 said:</div><hr>This is something Cal should hammer away at. We should note that not only does Cal have one of the best NFL placement rates, if you aren't able to make the NFL, the Cal degree offers more than that which one would get from another school, most of which don't get the same number of players into the NFL. <br /><br />There has to be some way of effectively articulating that without seeming like football isn't a big deal at Cal.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />Of course there is. I don't know if they do it but I know I would be asking our marketing folks to put together a nice big glossy leave behind of successful football alumni that are not working in the NFL. For example, over on the BB board it was pointed out that Al Grigsby has become a successful VP of Sales for a SF biotech firm - a position in which he is likely to make as much (or more) over his lifetime as a noncollege degreed journeyman NBA'er. Surely there are many of those from our larger football program. It is the sort of thing that PARENTS will like.<br /><br />You KNOW that the Furd markets this. If we are not it is a lost opportunity.
dupdadee
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Stop entertaining trolls folks.<br /><br /><br />geejeff - oregon fan<br /><br />locooso - ucla fan<br /><br />blackbear - stanford fan
philly1121
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;695555 said:</div><hr>50% chance? Really?<br /><br />If you took all 4/5 star recruits from the last 5 years, would you find half of them in the NFL? <br /><br />I would maybe say 50% of 5 star recruits make it. That means they play one year. I think many don't make it beyond 3 and a smaller percentage of that will be on the first team and be making buku-dollars. Look at how many CFB players there are (every year) and then look at how many NFL players (actually playing on Sundays) there are. It's a huge drop.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />Ok - less than 50%? I'll buy that. It still doesn't really take away from the whole educational relevance argument. Is Shaq really thinking about his education if he's choosing UW or Oregon over us? I mean, it can't really be that, can it, because we're obviously better educationally.<br /><br />It must be something else. Call it the whims of a 17 year old or maybe he really just doesn't plain give a damn about a degree. He's there to play football in a place that he feels he is wanted. That connection may or may not have been Tosh. With him gone, it could possibly make no sense to go.
freshfunk
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">philly1121;695593 said:</div><hr>Ok - less than 50%? I'll buy that. It still doesn't really take away from the whole educational relevance argument. Is Shaq really thinking about his education if he's choosing UW or Oregon over us? I mean, it can't really be that, can it, because we're obviously better educationally.<br /><br />It must be something else. Call it the whims of a 17 year old or maybe he really just doesn't plain give a damn about a degree. He's there to play football in a place that he feels he is wanted. That connection may or may not have been Tosh. With him gone, it could possibly make no sense to go.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />Well, I think you're off by an order of magnitude. Just looking at the numbers, it's probably closer to 5% that have a successful NFL career. Just saying.<br /><br />I think that in the minds of some of these elite HS players, education <b>does</b> play less of a role. But I think, as many are saying here, it <b>should</b> play more of a role considering the slim chances of monetary success in the NFL for even the elite players.<br /><br />I understand players want to win. If I were in that position, I would want to win. But the smart players have their ultimate goal of being in the NFL and having a good backup if that doesn't work out. Really would you rather go to the Rose Bowl and then sell paper for a living afterwards or go to the Holiday Bowl but then play in the NFL?
510Bear
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">72CalBear;695546 said:</div><hr>This makes alot of sense. We had a 4 star player here at our high school pick one P12 school over another because he was offered #1 on his jersey, and the team was sponsored by Adidas, not Nike..Amazing..These are 17 year old prima donnas with stars in their eyes, and we feed that..<hr></blockquote><br /><br />I think we should be careful about flipping to the other extreme and characterize the superstar recruits as a bunch of prima donnas who wouldn't open a book if their lives depended on it.<br /><br />Reality is that quality of education is probably a plus, but a minor one. How big it is depends on the recruit. And that's not to say we don't have other advantages that make Cal football about more than lupoi - other programs would love to have our facilities and NFL placement rate - but until we get a BCS berth, we're just not quite <i>there</i> yet.<br /><br />Hate to say it, but the 1000 post-lupoi posts proclaiming "We shall prevail because we are THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, greatest public university in the world, bitches!" now seem more like empty cheerleading than legit argument. We'll still be OK post-lupoigate, but not because of this.<br /><br />Sorry. <img src="<img src="<img src="<img src="<img src="" />" />" />" />">
oskidunker
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Oregon is that, we are not. We tend to get blown out whenever we play a top 20 team.Don't think kids don't notice that.Can't say I wouldn't pick Oregon if I was AA>
philly1121
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<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;695610 said:</div><hr>Well, I think you're off by an order of magnitude. Just looking at the numbers, it's probably closer to 5% that have a successful NFL career. Just saying.<br /><br />I think that in the minds of some of these elite HS players, education <b>does</b> play less of a role. But I think, as many are saying here, it <b>should</b> play more of a role considering the slim chances of monetary success in the NFL for even the elite players.<br /><br />I understand players want to win. If I were in that position, I would want to win. But the smart players have their ultimate goal of being in the NFL and having a good backup if that doesn't work out. Really would you rather go to the Rose Bowl and then sell paper for a living afterwards or go to the Holiday Bowl but then play in the NFL?<hr></blockquote><br /><br />An order of magnitude. That's a new one for me. Suggesting that I am off by alot? Well, I think you may be right. I looked at a website called The Winthrop Digest. They actually answer the question that we are discussing - at least on some level: <i>Which programs produce the most NFL draft picks, relative to the amount of high school ranked stars (3 stars or higher)? Are some programs significantly better recruiters and teachers?</i><br /><br />Well, between 2005-2010, the best team at recruiting 3+ star recruits and getting drafted to the NFL is - USC. Between 2005 and 2010, they recruited 124 3+ star players. Of that number, 38 were drafted. This accounts for a 30.6% draft rate for these 3+ star recruits. The remaining top 10 schools are as follows:<br /><br />Ohio St.<br />Oklahoma<br />LSU<br />Texas<br />Georgia<br />Michigan<br />Tennessee<br />Notre Dame<br /><br />Bottom line: the 50% was way off, but USC from 2005-2010 was sending 30% of its 3+ star recruits to the NFL. That's pretty impressive. In the end, I think education isn't really relevant to this particular conversation. Shaq is going to go where he thinks he can win and win fast - and that will give him the best shot at the NFL. We'll know in a couple of days if its us, UW or Oregon.
ShajMaster12
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