Any baseball gurus out there to help explain why one of my favorite Giants is struggling so much this year? And please, no mention of the bullpen blowing his win at San Diego as exxagerating his problems. His ERA is making Barry Zito look like he never really had a bad stretch here in SF...Let me hear it, cause I can't figure it.

It's really weird. People are saying it's a mental issue but Im starting to think batters just know how to bat against him. He was explosive in the beginning of his career because no one could hit off of him. Now they do.

Is his velocity down? Yah ERA 6.00 is brutal.

KoreAmBear;841899307 said:

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Is his velocity down? Yah ERA 6.00 is brutal.

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Yes, major decrease in velocity and he hasn't learned how to adjust to throwing in the low 90's. It shouldn't really come as a surprise that Lincecum is breaking down - the guy is a twig.

Funny how I remember a few years ago when Giants fans were saying what a huge mistake the Dodgers made drafting Clayton Kershaw instead of Lincecum.

Kershaw >>>>>>>>>>>> Lincecum

KoreAmBear;841899307 said:

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Is his velocity down? Yah ERA 6.00 is brutal.

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His velocity has dropped every year since he's come into the league. Lower velocity on his fastball makes everything else easier to hit. At times this season he has stopped throwing his change up also.

BowDowntoWashington;841899313 said:

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Yes, major decrease in velocity and he hasn't learned how to adjust to throwing in the low 90's. It shouldn't really come as a surprise that Lincecum is breaking down - the guy is a twig.

Funny how I remember a few years ago when Giants fans were saying what a huge mistake the Dodgers made drafting Clayton Kershaw instead of Lincecum.

Kershaw >>>>>>>>>>>> Lincecum

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*ahem* Lincecum has won more CY Youngs and has won a world series. What has Kershaw done?

and another *ahem* he played for your school. UW = Hatters gon hat

This holds good clue why Lincecum is getting knocked around:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5705&position=P&pitch=FA

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899318 said:

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*ahem* Lincecum has won more CY Youngs and has won a world series. What has Kershaw done?

and another *ahem* he played for your school. UW = Hatters gon hat

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Someone who is the reigning Cy Young award winner gets a "what has he done?" Wow. Kershaw is a witch, as close to Sandy Koufax as the Dodgers have seen.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899304 said:

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It's really weird. People are saying it's a mental issue but Im starting to think batters just know how to bat against him. He was explosive in the beginning of his career because no one could hit off of him. Now they do.

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It doesnt take hitters that long to "learn" how to hit a guy. The sample size is way too large now to think guys are suddenly figuring him out. The problem is Tim.

What's wrong is pretty simple. The solution is far from it. His K/9 is not down. His velocity is where it's been for 3 years now (90-92). His BB/9 is way up. It's his control. He's not hitting his spots and he's leaving balls up in the zone and out over the plate. Any pitcher will get tagged doing that (zone charts bear out this observation).

Why he's lost control is absolutely unknown (to me, that is). He's a great pitcher, so even when he's off he is keeping it together (e.g. Today's first inning when he walked 3 and got out of the inning). And he still shows his brilliance (e.g. Today's second inning when he struck out the side swinging), but you can't keep doing things like that (walking 3) and expect to get out of it every time - so he has a bad inning or two every start.

He's got to find his control and keep the ball down. It's a simple diagnosis. Not a simple solution.

One inning he's dominating hitters and striking out the side. The next inning, he's walking the bases loaded.. It's strange and as a Giants fan, I hope he figures it all out soon. One thing I have noticed is that when he gets into the stretch, that's when he has problems with location. Mechanics, mental, I wish I knew..

No one knows the cause, but he seems to lose the location of his pitches when he pitches from the stretch. Much like Zito, as his velocity drops, he has much less margin for error if his location is poor.

Still, even with lower velocity, he still has very good "stuff" at times and can still be a very good pitcher. He just can't seem to figure it out this year.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899318 said:

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*ahem* Lincecum has won more CY Youngs and has won a world series. What has Kershaw done?

and another *ahem* he played for your school. UW = Hatters gon hat

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Would you trade Kershaw for Lincecum now?

Why don't they let him sit out a start or two? Let him clear his head and find a different rhythm. Slumping hitters sit all the time.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899318 said:

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*ahem* Lincecum has won more CY Youngs and has won a world series. What has Kershaw done?

and another *ahem* he played for your school. UW = Hatters gon hat

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You've gotta be kidding me.

Have you ever seen Kershaw pitch?

Did you root for Jeff Kent when he played for the Dodgers?

I think his problems are twofold. His fastball has lost a good 3-5 mph since he came into the league (depending on the specific game -- he's had some games this year where he works at 90mph and others where he kicks it up to 94 mph) because he, understandably, fell in love with his change up, which is very effective. But, if you don't use your fastball, you lose it. It may seem counter-intuitive, but change-ups take alot more out of your arm than fastballs. If you throw 100 changeups your arm's going to hurt alot more afterwards, than if you throw 100 fastballs. Whereas you throw fastballs out on the tips of your forefinger and middle finger, circle changes are jammed into your palm and thrown with your middle finger, ring ringer, and pinkie. And forkballs put alot of stress on your forearm near your elbow. It's an unnatural way to throw. I think the 2nd part of the equation is that he, frankly, parties too much.

BowDowntoWashington;841899338 said:

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You've gotta be kidding me.

Have you ever seen Kershaw pitch?

Did you root for Jeff Kent when he played for the Dodgers?

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I actually wasnt a Cal fan yet at the time so I could care less about Kent's ties to Cal. But now that I am a Cal fan and he's retired as a Giant, he's all good in my books.

That being said, Kershaw is good but in comparison to the record Lincecum has (2 CYs vs one, 1 WS vs none), you really cant tell me Kershaw is better. Timmy is just having a bad year which doesnt subtract from the success he has had.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899343 said:

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I actually wasnt a Cal fan yet at the time so I could care less about Kent's ties to Cal. But now that I am a Cal fan and he's retired as a Giant, he's all good in my books.

That being said, Kershaw is good but in comparison to the record Lincecum has (2 CYs vs one, 1 WS vs none), you really cant tell me Kershaw is better. Timmy is just having a bad year which doesnt subtract from the success he has had.

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If you want to compare records, I would say Kershaw's Cy Young year was better than any of Lincecum's. And he beat the heck out of him head to head last season.

Lincecum's an awesome pitcher but Kershaw is younger, has more upside, and will hopefully have a World Series title soon.

I wouldnt trade Timmy for any other pitcher. Hes having a down season, it happens to them all. He'll turn back into the Timmy we're used to seeing, it might not be until after the all star break but you can take that to the bank.

goldenjax;841899352 said:

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I wouldnt trade Timmy for any other pitcher. Hes having a down season, it happens to them all. He'll turn back into the Timmy we're used to seeing, it might not be until after the all star break but you can take that to the bank.

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No he won't. I have many, many reasons to believe that we've seen the best Tim Lincecum already has to offer. Wrote an article about this a couple months back: http://calibermag.org/articles/the-case-for-dumping-tim-lincecum/

tl;dr summary if you don't want to click the link...
-velocity dropping means he can't make as many mistakes with his location
-he's not only making mistakes with his location, but his fastball is necessary to set up his changeup. a drop in effectiveness for the former leads to one in the latter
-can't throw the slider very well either because he's admitted it gives him trouble
-whatever the issue is, it's not physical. Trainers and beat writers have noted his dedication to conditioning.

The issue is most likely mechanical, but it's not something Righetti will be much help with, since only Tim and his dad are able to work on his delivery.

based on all this and the fact that his peripherals are trending the wrong way, and that he also makes 20 million a year [likely to demand more than that once free agency comes around], I see no reason why the Giants should make a huge effort to resign him. I don't want to see him traded, and I WANT him to do well, but I think that our rotation is better served with Bumgarner and Cain moving forward.

FingeroftheBear;841899324 said:

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Something might be altering Linsecum's elaborate and torque-y wind-up and delivery. Something not apparent like turf toe or naggy knee could do that. Just a guess. I hope he gets back to 100% soon, even as a Dodger fan. He's good for baseball because he does it his own way and he's average size.

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Bingo. His whole problem this year is control. He walks too many batters, then will put one right down the center of the plate at bad times.

The tiniest thing goes wrong with that delivery and control suffers. Reportedly he was up above 190 lbs in the off-season, then lost a bunch. As one gets older, it's natural to lose flexibility. This could be just enough to wreck his formerly-dominant self.

grandmastapoop;841899328 said:

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He's got to find his control and keep the ball down. It's a simple diagnosis. Not a simple solution.

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Think you have it right GMP. There is an opportunity after the Seattle start to sit out a rotation without fouling up the other pitchers to work on this. It is said that Timmy avoids Giants coaching (Rightetti/Gardner)and makes excuses not to work between starts. Papa Chris is eligible to make suggestions.

Pleased that he only signed for two years. Personally not willing to think trade now. But if you ask me about the Panda, I'll talk trade anytime. Undisciplined at the table affecting fielding--the guy can't move! Think about his occasional long balls. How many hits with RISP. But he sells hats.

I hope Goldenjax is right--a miracle after All-Start Break? He is taking it to the bank, but I will not bet the farm.

Kershaw is better than Lincecum is now. Kershaw is also closer to free agency.

Giants got more great years out of Lincecum before he was FA eligeable than the Dodgers got out of Kershaw.

Once Kershaw is an FA, it doesn't matter where he was drafted.

That said, Kershaw is a freaking beast right now. I'm still happy the Giants got Lincecum over the Dodgers, and think he helped the Giants more than Kershaw would have when the Giants needed it most.

~MrGPAC

Mama Bear;841899433 said:

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Think you have it right GMP. There is an opportunity after the Seattle start to sit out a rotation without fouling up the other pitchers to work on this. It is said that Timmy avoids Giants coaching (Rightetti/Gardner)and makes excuses not to work between starts. Papa Chris is eligible to make suggestions.

Pleased that he only signed for two years. Personally not willing to think trade now. But if you ask me about the Panda, I'll talk trade anytime. Undisciplined at the table affecting fielding--the guy can't move! Think about his occasional long balls. How many hits with RISP. But he sells hats.

I hope Goldenjax is right--a miracle after All-Start Break? He is taking it to the bank, but I will not bet the farm.

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Sorry, out of the many reasons you may want to trade Pablo [and I do not], that does not qualify as a legitimate one. Here's why.

One of these players is Buster Posey [with RISP].
One of these players is Pablo Sandoval [with RISP].

.293/.352/.414
.286/.355/.464

Which one is which?

The man is so unique as a pitcher & individual, sooner or later he will "find himself," again. The Giants have always shown a lot of patience & loyalty with players like Tim who always give 100%, so patience is the nature of "the game," here. Here's hoping he gets it figured out, soon.

soefeil;841899315 said:

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His velocity has dropped every year since he's come into the league. Lower velocity on his fastball makes everything else easier to hit. At times this season he has stopped throwing his change up also.

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I noticed the same with the changeup. I haven't seen too many of Lincecum's games on TV this year but the games that I have seen, it does appear that he's not throwing the changeup as much. This pitch could have been a splitter which seemed to dip and move like a screwball.

Jesus Christ,

The premise of this original Kershaw vs Lincecum debate was "Who should you have drafted"

2 Cy Youngs vs 1 Cy Young
1 World Series vs 0 World Series

Talk to me when Kershaw wins another CY Young and a World Series. Even if his stats were "better" than Lincecums during his Cy Young year, he didnt win two. Heck, he might win it this year, we don't know. Fact of the matter - what is on paper right now is what I stated above.

Dodger fans make me laugh sometimes.

Maybe Lincecum will get better, maybe he won't. Same with Kershaw. What if he begins to go through a slump similar to what Timmy is going through. B&G, you are not a guru...but if you are, tell me when we are going to the Rose Bowl.

BlueAndGold;841899447 said:

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Sorry, out of the many reasons you may want to trade Pablo [and I do not], that does not qualify as a legitimate one. Here's why.

One of these players is Buster Posey [with RISP].
One of these players is Pablo Sandoval [with RISP].

.293/.352/.414
.286/.355/.464

Which one is which?

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Hmmm. One can field his position. Know I am in the minority, but time will tell.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899455 said:

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Jesus Christ,

The premise of this original Kershaw vs Lincecum debate was "Who should you have drafted"

2 Cy Youngs vs 1 Cy Young
1 World Series vs 0 World Series

Talk to me when Kershaw wins another CY Young and a World Series. Even if his stats were "better" than Lincecums during his Cy Young year, he didnt win two. Heck, he might win it this year, we don't know. Fact of the matter - what is on paper right now is what I stated above.

Dodger fans make me laugh sometimes.

Maybe Lincecum will get better, maybe he won't. Same with Kershaw. What if he begins to go through a slump similar to what Timmy is going through. B&G, you are not a guru...but if you are, tell me when we are going to the Rose Bowl.

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No, of course not. Nobody is - not even the talking heads at ESPN. But I can make an educated guess and prediction...I certainly have enough evidence to guess that we've seen the best TL has to offer already.

The drop in velocity three years running
The career high in BB/9, a K/9 is down from his peak years
A career high line drive rate
A changeup, slider and curveball that have each dropped in run effectiveness 3 years running [see the pitch values chart]
A drop in Wins Above Replacement level over the last 3 years

Those statistics and trends are a lot more reliable than blind faith and trust.

And yes, as a Giants fan, I would never regret our decision to draft Lincecum, even if Kershaw ends up winning the next 7 Cy Youngs. TL brought us a title. No one can ever take that away from us.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899318 said:

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*ahem* Lincecum has won more CY Youngs and has won a world series. What has Kershaw done?

and another *ahem* he played for your school. UW = Hatters gon hat

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Winning a World Series is not an individual accomplishment.

Simple, he quit smoking weed.

MrGPAC;841899436 said:

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Kershaw is better than Lincecum is now. Kershaw is also closer to free agency.

Giants got more great years out of Lincecum before he was FA eligeable than the Dodgers got out of Kershaw.

Once Kershaw is an FA, it doesn't matter where he was drafted.

That said, Kershaw is a freaking beast right now. I'm still happy the Giants got Lincecum over the Dodgers, and think he helped the Giants more than Kershaw would have when the Giants needed it most.

~MrGPAC

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Where did you pull that one from?

Lincecum = FA in 2014
Kershaw = FA in 2015

"The Giants got more great years?" Huh? Every team has their players under control for 6 years....

The Dodgers will likely extend Kershaw before he hits free agency, like they did with Matt Kemp. Their new ownership is going to spend money to retain their best players, as well as acquire some from outside of the organization. Don't be surprised if Cole Hamels is pitching for the Dodgers next season.

Adrian The Cal Bear;841899455 said:

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Jesus Christ,

The premise of this original Kershaw vs Lincecum debate was "Who should you have drafted"

2 Cy Youngs vs 1 Cy Young
1 World Series vs 0 World Series

Talk to me when Kershaw wins another CY Young and a World Series. Even if his stats were "better" than Lincecums during his Cy Young year, he didnt win two. Heck, he might win it this year, we don't know. Fact of the matter - what is on paper right now is what I stated above.

Dodger fans make me laugh sometimes.

Maybe Lincecum will get better, maybe he won't. Same with Kershaw. What if he begins to go through a slump similar to what Timmy is going through. B&G, you are not a guru...but if you are, tell me when we are going to the Rose Bowl.

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You keep throwing in the World Series. Didn't realize that team accomplishments count when comparing individual players.

I guess Marc Tyler was a better running back than Marshawn Lynch. 2 Rose Bowl victories to none.

The Giants chose 7 college pitchers with their first 8 draft picks so I think they are preparing for the worst.

hummbabybear;841899580 said:

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The Giants chose 7 college pitchers with their first 8 draft picks so I think they are preparing for the worst.

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They've been chosing mostly pitchers for years. It's a part of their draft philosophy. But there could be a little more empahasis this year because of losing their top pitching prospect in the Beltran trade and seeing Tim struggle.

My 2 cents on Tim is that he doesn't have the lower body mass to continually support the torque that his delivery creates, causing either control problems or velocity losses or both. I don't think much will change this year, but he could come back next year as good as ever if he commits to building muscle in his legs and core. I have no real basis for saying this accept that I know that Nolan Ryan attributed his success, particularly the # of years he was able to throw at a high velocity, to his lower body strength. If you look at Tim Lincecum's legs, they look almost as thin as Maynard's and nowhere near as strong as Ryan's:p

MrGPAC;841899436 said:

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Kershaw is better than Lincecum is now. Kershaw is also closer to free agency.

Giants got more great years out of Lincecum before he was FA eligeable than the Dodgers got out of Kershaw.

Once Kershaw is an FA, it doesn't matter where he was drafted.

That said, Kershaw is a freaking beast right now. I'm still happy the Giants got Lincecum over the Dodgers, and think he helped the Giants more than Kershaw would have when the Giants needed it most.

~MrGPAC

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The lucky thing for the Giants is timing.
Lincecum was great 2010, and he was especially great during the postseason run. He had that 14-K shutout against the Braves, and 1-run 8-inning game in the World Series clincher.
The Giants would not have won the 2010 World Series if the Dodgers, or anyone picking top 9, had drafted Lincecum.

BowDowntoWashington;841899489 said:

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You keep throwing in the World Series. Didn't realize that team accomplishments count when comparing individual players.

I guess Marc Tyler was a better running back than Marshawn Lynch. 2 Rose Bowl victories to none.

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Team accomplishments go hand-in-hand with individual players. There is no denying Lincecum played a large role in the Giants winning the world series. Kershaw has YET to play in the World Series or help bring his team there. Maybe they can do it this year, maybe not. But based on the track record we have of both pitchers since they were drafted, there is no arguing that Lincecum has accomplished more than Kershaw, both individually and with his team.

And your analogy is completely wrong. Did Marc Tyler win more individual awards than Lynch? Was he ever listed as an All-American? Pleaseee....