Several national lists of coaches "on the hot seat" have Tedford listed quite high going into this season. Several posters on this site have expressed the opinion that this is not true because of his pricey buyout clause, but I wonder if pressure to enroll more people in the ESP coupled with the disappointing player academic performance, and disappointing win-loss records may trump the buyout issue this season. How hot is Tedford's seat?

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/lopresti/story/2012-08-24/college-football-coaches-hot-seat/57281746/1

http://coacheshotseat.com/CoachesHotSeatRanking.htm

according to sandy, not hot at all

Tedford should be on the hot seat. Another mediocre 6 win season and the seat will smoke and sizzle.

:tedford

For years, Jeff tedford (and, to be fair, his predecessors) have cited Cal's facilities as one of the key stumbling blocks to recruiting top prospects.

On September 1, 2012, Jeff Tedford will officially be out of excuses. In 2004, he had the Bears in near-BCS territory, only to spend much of the next seven years treading water. In that time, the hippies have come and gone from the trees, and the school has spent a third of a billion dollars on state-of-the-art training facilities and a stadium second to none. In that time, the Pac 10 became the Pac 12, and we got a new network and a new revenue stream. The effects of that reveneue can already be seen in the coaching arms race that has brought Jim Mora, Jr. to UCLA, Mike Leach to Wazzou, and Rich Rod to Arizona.

Cal cannot afford mediocrity. We've invested heavily in the football program, and we cannot afford not to have fans in those seats. I dread the thought of being Minnesota -- with a beautiful new stadium, but a team that can't beat South Dakota State.

If we miss a bowl, and lose Big Game, I think we can safely say the Tedford era is over. If we make a minor bowl and/or win Big Game, I think the jury goes out. If JT is retained, it would be with the clear understanding that he needs to make serious run at the BCS in 2013, or he's out.

The wild card factor here is the Seattle Seahawks. If Pete Carroll is let go/resigns, and he is looking to get back into coaching on the West Coast, would Cal make a run at hiring him?

She can't tell the press he's on the hot seat no matter how much many on this board would like her too.

Of course, if we don't start selling some of those seat endowments (and I do believe that will happen), her seat may get warm.

SoFlaBear;841929122 said:

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:tedford

For years, Jeff tedford (and, to be fair, his predecessors) have cited Cal's facilities as one of the key stumbling blocks to recruiting top prospects.

On September 1, 2012, Jeff Tedford will officially be out of excuses. In 2004, he had the Bears in near-BCS territory, only to spend much of the next seven years treading water. In that time, the hippies have come and gone from the trees, and the school has spent a third of a billion dollars on state-of-the-art training facilities and a stadium second to none. In that time, the Pac 10 became the Pac 12, and we got a new network and a new revenue stream. The effects of that reveneue can already be seen in the coaching arms race that has brought Jim Mora, Jr. to UCLA, Mike Leach to Wazzou, and Rich Rod to Arizona.

Cal cannot afford mediocrity. We've invested heavily in the football program, and we cannot afford not to have fans in those seats. I dread the thought of being Minnesota -- with a beautiful new stadium, but a team that can't beat South Dakota State.

If we miss a bowl, and lose Big Game, I think we can safely say the Tedford era is over. If we make a minor bowl and/or win Big Game, I think the jury goes out. If JT is retained, it would be with the clear understanding that he needs to make serious run at the BCS in 2013, or he's out.

The wild card factor here is the Seattle Seahawks. If Pete Carroll is let go/resigns, and he is looking to get back into coaching on the West Coast, would Cal make a run at hiring him?

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Attendance will determine when Tedford leaves.

Did I not clearly state, "Cal cannot afford mediocrity. We've invested heavily in the football program, and we cannot afford not to have fans in those seats."

FiatSlug;841929127 said:

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Attendance will determine when Tedford leaves.

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I disagree Fiat. The big contributors will make that call.

When his contract is up, in which case it'll be renewed or we'll look elsewhere.

Tedford's results are not poor enough to fire him with that buyout.
Tedford is due a few years with the recruits he's managed to bring into his new facilities.
Many rich Cal alum will be quite happy as long as they go to bowls and start taking the Axe back.

If he goes 2-10, then yes, the decision will be reconsidered. But until he does, he stays right where he is until his contract runs out.

So no, he is not on the hot seat. If he has a bad season, he probably ends up on the hot seat. But not this year.

1) Sandy's appreciation for JT is not just media deep.

2) There will be enough excitement this year to draw fans even if the team is mediocre.

3) Tedford's performance cannot be truly assessed until he has several years under the new facilities.

4) Sandy's not sophisticated enough in the area of football to understand that JT will never take Cal to a Rose Bowl-reason is that the NFL scheme focus creates too many barriers to playing successful football at the college level.

5) Going 6-6 can't be considered a failure when they play 6 ranked teams (tOSU, USC, furd, Utah, UW, and Oregon), play a very talented UCLA team and have 2 scary road games against OSU and WSU.

6) JT will not get fired next year because it is a rebuilding year. We will lose a bunch of key starters on offense (QB, 2RBs, 1 all-american WR, 2 NFL caliber OLs-4 total, FB, 2 draftable DBs, 2 DL starters, and 2 LB starters). All told, we will lose 15 players from the 2 deep, 12 of them starters. Add 1 if Coleman leaves early for the NFL. Those starters manned several of the most key positions, especially on offense where we lose both OTs.

7) Although 2014 should be a succesful year, JT will not get fired for failing to do so because he would only have 1 more year left on his contract. However, failure to win at least 8 games in 2014 would start the AD seriously looking for a replacement and JT will probably not get an extension unless he totally rebounds in 2015.

SoFlaBear;841929129 said:

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Did I not clearly state, "Cal cannot afford mediocrity. We've invested heavily in the football program, and we cannot afford not to have fans in those seats."

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...by stating conditions that would cause Tedford to be fired.

Why would you do that?

I'm with Fiat, butts in seats. We gambled big with the upgrades, if attendance dwindles after this year due to poor performance, we have already been told we can't support ourselves with the current revenue, certainly not with less revenue AND the debt.

As to donors being ok with him just doing average, well again, if seats dwindle, unless those donors are going to pony up the funds to make up for that loss,for the financial stability of the AD, they will have to bite the bullet and make that call.

Still, I honestly believe he will win again. We'll see.

LessMilesMoreTedford;841929146 said:

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Tedford's results are not poor enough to fire him with that buyout.

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His contract specifically states that payments continue for the life of the contract even if Tedford is let go without cause. It also specifically states that there is no buyout.

There is also a clause that if Tedford were hired as a coach by another employer in college football, the amounts due to him from Cal would be reduced by the amounts paid by the new employer.

gobears725;841929115 said:

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according to sandy, not hot at all

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Well, what would you expect Sandy to say?

my personal opinion is that she is not lying as long as JT puts up a mediocre season

Mr. Tedford, just win and maybe we can stop all the mediocrity talk. It is really getting old.

LessMilesMoreTedford;841929146 said:

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When his contract is up, in which case it'll be renewed or we'll look elsewhere.

Tedford's results are not poor enough to fire him with that buyout.
Tedford is due a few years with the recruits he's managed to bring into his new facilities.
Many rich Cal alum will be quite happy as long as they go to bowls and start taking the Axe back.

If he goes 2-10, then yes, the decision will be reconsidered. But until he does, he stays right where he is until his contract runs out.

So no, he is not on the hot seat. If he has a bad season, he probably ends up on the hot seat. But not this year.

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Exactly. For now his seat is at most tepid but definitely not hot.

Wow. I guess there is NO condition in which you see JT in trouble. I completely disagree with your take on the situation. If this team struggles this year his seat will be very hot IMHO. It is time to win games.

The AD and athletic donors have gone all in on facilities and support for JT. Time to step up and win. The program has been mediocre for the past several seasons. In fact in conference games below mediocre. That cannot continue. If not now then when should we expect a good season? USC looks really strong, but Stanford and Oregon must break in new QBs. ASU, UCLA, UA and WSU all have new leadership. And while the changes may all be upgrades, there is a reason there was change. That reason is lack of success. None of those programs return great teams.

Cal plays most of the tougher conference opponents at CMS which gives them a much better chance at victory. This season really needs to go well for the Bears. New facilities or not JT will find it increasingly difficult to recruit should the results stay mediocre or heaven forbid get worse.

8 wins is my baseline. 8 or more he deserves to stay. 7 or less and he should go. 7 wins would mean 7-6 overall and would not be worthy IMO. 8 is enough to stay but would again be mediocre given the 2 relatively weak non conference games at CMS to start the season. Yes I am saying Nevada at home is a relatively weak opponent. Cal should handle this team easily IMO, and if they don't it could spell real trouble.

vmfa531;841929233 said:

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Mr. Tedford, just win and maybe we can stop all the mediocrity talk. It is really getting old.

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This. Let's just win! Fellow Bear fans, the season is about to start! Time to put away the "what if we go 5-7" speculation! Beat the Wolfpack! Go Bears!

Here's my attempt to simplify this issue. Winning (and a commitment to winning) drive revenue. The stadium renovation has generated some great momentum, but that won't last if the team continues to have non-competitive records. If this year does not result in an improvement on 2011's record, the brass will have to take a very hard look at finding a coach that can actually get the Bears to the top prize once in a while. If there are some positive steps in 2012, I can't imagine Tedford not being back for 2013.

...Jeff Tedford to Fresno State. Is that too much to hope for?

:beer:

JT won't be able to recruit without a contract extension. Garbage recruiting classes will tank the program. His future will be decided sooner than you might think. Cal can certainly afford the buyout after the 2013 season if the new HC is a young, cheap hire.

If Tedford does not get us to a bowl and doesn't win Big Game, how do you think season ticket sales will be for next year?

SoFlaBear;841929379 said:

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If Tedford does not get us to a bowl and doesn't win Big Game, how do you think season ticket sales will be for next year?

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This is a hypothetical I will not engage.

We're on the brink of a new season and you want me to engage in a parlor game with the purpose of tearing down the current head coach.

Thanks, but no thanks.

TarzanaBear;841929385 said:

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This. If recruiting goes post tosh as bad as it's been going so far, Tedford may leave the cupboard pretty bare for the new coach if we wait a couple of years. Best to give the new coach the best chance to succeed possible. And as you say no coach will coach till their last season in their contract. They either get an extension or get fired.

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This. Just check the Scout Top 150 in the West - Tedford is laying a big egg and making it crystal clear Tosh was the driving force behind the solid recruiting.

What does Tedford do well- he's a lousy game day coach, can't recruit without Tosh and is pretty uninspiring in terms of firing up the troops for big road games??

The only reason he is coaching now is his giant albatross of a contract. He whined forever about the facilities and now that he has them, he's asleep at the wheel recruting-wise.

His time as a head coach has past - that's not a crime- but the program is going nowhere until he is gone. We may have a vintage Tedford season ahead; 6-6 qualifying for an irrelevant bowl and winning so that we can hear ad nauseum about Tedford's "winning seasons."

The position the program is in is the fault of Barbour first and foremost.

Tedford's seat is not nearly as hot as it should be. His first 5 years were good, but the last five have been mediocre. He should be feeling a little uncomfortable right now, but I don't sense that he is. I think it will take another mediocre season in 2012 (6 wins or less) for his job to be in jeopardy.

SmellinRoses;841929502 said:

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This. Just check the Scout Top 150 in the West - Tedford is laying a big egg and making it crystal clear Tosh was the driving force behind the solid recruiting.

What does Tedford do well- he's a lousy game day coach, can't recruit without Tosh and is pretty uninspiring in terms of firing up the troops for big road games??

The only reason he is coaching now is his giant albatross of a contract. He whined forever about the facilities and now that he has them, he's asleep at the wheel recruting-wise.

His time as a head coach has past - that's not a crime- but the program is going nowhere until he is gone. We may have a vintage Tedford season ahead; 6-6 qualifying for an irrelevant bowl and winning so that we can hear ad nauseum about Tedford's "winning seasons."

The position the program is in is the fault of Barbour first and foremost.

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It's good to unload every once in a while.

The coach put this program into a leading position for future decades with the new CMS and SAPH. Whether he will be here for any of the rest of the ride is an open question but the hard part has been done boys, whether you want to admit it or not. That's the insanely huge accomplishment of one Jeff Tedford and one Sandy Barbour. No question about it. You should sleep easy now over that and stop constipating over whether JT is out in 13,14, or never or whatnot. Open your eyes, take a few dozen steps back, look at the real timeline and milestones here, the program has officially and forever put it's crippling past behind itself with these steps. I would have thought it more likely that we would have dumped out of the Pac-10 into some mid-major conference before I saw an investment like this.We will only fall as far back as this crown jewel will allow, and that's like falling forward at this point.

SmellinRoses;841929502 said:

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This. Just check the Scout Top 150 in the West - Tedford is laying a big egg and making it crystal clear Tosh was the driving force behind the solid recruiting.

What does Tedford do well- he's a lousy game day coach, can't recruit without Tosh and is pretty uninspiring in terms of firing up the troops for big road games??

The only reason he is coaching now is his giant albatross of a contract. He whined forever about the facilities and now that he has them, he's asleep at the wheel recruting-wise.

His time as a head coach has past - that's not a crime- but the program is going nowhere until he is gone. We may have a vintage Tedford season ahead; 6-6 qualifying for an irrelevant bowl and winning so that we can hear ad nauseum about Tedford's "winning seasons."

The position the program is in is the fault of Barbour first and foremost.

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Feel better?? That's one big sh*t you just took..ahhhh..I feel better just knowing you do!! :bravo

8 wins or bust.

anything less than 8, and I think we should look for a replacement.

i hope teddy doesnt get fired. he cares about his players.

Not at all. What gives you that idea?

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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1) Sandy's appreciation for JT is not just media deep.

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No doubt. JT has been instrumental in getting the new training facilities built and the transformation of CMS into a state-of-the-art facility.

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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2) There will be enough excitement this year to draw fans even if the team is mediocre.

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Agreed.

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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3) Tedford's performance cannot be truly assessed until he has several years under the new facilities.

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This is where I disagree. In a fair world, you'd be correct. However, Cal now has expensive bills to pay. New facilities will sell themselves for a season or two. JT needs get this team back to where it was in 2004 in order to sell the tickets and win the recruiting battles. We need both in order to guarantee that the seats stay filled now and for years to come.

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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4) Sandy's not sophisticated enough in the area of football to understand that JT will never take Cal to a Rose Bowl-reason is that the NFL scheme focus creates too many barriers to playing successful football at the college level.

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You can win with the NFL scheme if you have the right players. Hopefully, the facilities will help us win those tough recruiting battles and get the players we need.

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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5) Going 6-6 can't be considered a failure when they play 6 ranked teams (tOSU, USC, furd, Utah, UW, and Oregon), play a very talented UCLA team and have 2 scary road games against OSU and WSU.

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That really speaks to other comments made in this thread. Six exciting wins, coupled with six close/competitive losses would be OK if it sells tickets next year. It won't hack it long term.

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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6) JT will not get fired next year because it is a rebuilding year. We will lose a bunch of key starters on offense (QB, 2RBs, 1 all-american WR, 2 NFL caliber OLs-4 total, FB, 2 draftable DBs, 2 DL starters, and 2 LB starters). All told, we will lose 15 players from the 2 deep, 12 of them starters. Add 1 if Coleman leaves early for the NFL. Those starters manned several of the most key positions, especially on offense where we lose both OTs.

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We supposedly recruited really well last year and this year. We will now start seeing the players who were blue-shirted last year. These players were the first recruits JT got when it became clear the stadium and training facilities were going to be a reality.

heartofthebear;841929148 said:

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7) Although 2014 should be a succesful year, JT will not get fired for failing to do so because he would only have 1 more year left on his contract. However, failure to win at least 8 games in 2014 would start the AD seriously looking for a replacement and JT will probably not get an extension unless he totally rebounds in 2015.

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That's been brought up elsewhere, and I have a problem with that line of reasoning. In this day and age, coaches don't go into the final year of contracts. The argument goes that it makes recruiting difficult, if not impossible.

I suppose where we really disagree is that I see the 8 game over/under as being an issue next year, not in '14.

In the meantime, I haven't been this optimistic about the Bears since 2005. I'm looking forward to a very exciting season.

This all started when GoCal80 posed the question "How Hot is Tedford's Seat"

I responded:

SoFlaBear;841929122 said:

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:tedford

For years, Jeff tedford (and, to be fair, his predecessors) have cited Cal's facilities as one of the key stumbling blocks to recruiting top prospects.

On September 1, 2012, Jeff Tedford will officially be out of excuses. In 2004, he had the Bears in near-BCS territory, only to spend much of the next seven years treading water. In that time, the hippies have come and gone from the trees, and the school has spent a third of a billion dollars on state-of-the-art training facilities and a stadium second to none. In that time, the Pac 10 became the Pac 12, and we got a new network and a new revenue stream. The effects of that reveneue can already be seen in the coaching arms race that has brought Jim Mora, Jr. to UCLA, Mike Leach to Wazzou, and Rich Rod to Arizona.

Cal cannot afford mediocrity. We've invested heavily in the football program, and we cannot afford not to have fans in those seats. I dread the thought of being Minnesota -- with a beautiful new stadium, but a team that can't beat South Dakota State.

If we miss a bowl, and lose Big Game, I think we can safely say the Tedford era is over. If we make a minor bowl and/or win Big Game, I think the jury goes out. If JT is retained, it would be with the clear understanding that he needs to make serious run at the BCS in 2013, or he's out.

The wild card factor here is the Seattle Seahawks. If Pete Carroll is let go/resigns, and he is looking to get back into coaching on the West Coast, would Cal make a run at hiring him?

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Long story short: No matter how pretty the new facilities are, if JT can't win games, we won't sell tickets, and he'll be let go.

Then you said:

FiatSlug;841929127 said:

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Your postulating is useless...Attendance will determine when Tedford leaves.

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Setting aside for the moment that this is a sports message board, and sports radio and sports message boards revolve around useless postulating, we don't disagree. If we don't sell tickets, JT will be shown the door.

Then I said:

SoFlaBear;841929129 said:

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Did I not clearly state, "Cal cannot afford mediocrity. We've invested heavily in the football program, and we cannot afford not to have fans in those seats."

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..and you responded:

FiatSlug;841929151 said:

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You did, and then you undercut your message...by stating conditions that would cause Tedford to be fired.

Why would you do that?

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Why wouldn't I do that? [U]You can't separate attendance from wins - not in the long run.[/U] That's where your "undercut the argument" statement goes wrong.

Cal has built -- pick a superlative -- stunning, breathtaking, incredible, remarkable new facilities. Cal now has to sell tickets to pay for those facilities. I am very optimistic that JT will put an exciting and entertaining team on the field this year, and the result will be high season ticket sales for next year. That said, I can't envision 2013 ticket sales being too good if we win 4 games.

Then our exchange took what I consider to be an unfortunate turn. I said:

SoFlaBear;841929379 said:

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If Tedford does not get us to a bowl and doesn't win Big Game, how do you think season ticket sales will be for next year?

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and you responded:

FiatSlug;841929412 said:

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This is a hypothetical I will not engage.

We're on the brink of a new season and you want me to engage in a parlor game with the purpose of tearing down the current head coach.

Thanks, but no thanks.

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First, I was not asking you to engage in anything. I was only trying to underscore the point that I thought I'd already made; in my opinion, if Jeff Tedford can't coach the team to a bowl game, and also can't win Big Game, then ticket sales will drop to an unacceptable level, and a change at head coach would be likely.

Second, I was responding in a thread about whether or not our coach was on the "hot seat." Cal has invested 1/3 of a billion dollars giving this Coach (and future coaches) the facilities he said he needed to win. So yes, I say he's on a hot seat. For that kind of investment, he needs to produce. He needs to get this team winning games to sell the tickets and the seat endowments to pay for all of this.

Having said all of this, I think JT will pull it off. Recruiting has been good, and the players will be super-excited to play in this "new" old stadium. I'll double down on useless postulating, and I'll guess that there will be a very positive impact on recruiting -- even taking into account that JT has to recruit against (among others) Kelly, Kiffin, Shaw, Rich Rod, Mora Jr., Riley, and Leach.

:tedford