As a Niners fan, I think they are crazy if they spend their 1st round pick on Keenan, at least not without his 40-time first.

LethalFang;842110452 said:

---

As a Niners fan, I think they are crazy if they spend their 1st round pick on Keenan, at least not without his 40-time first.

---

40 times are overrated. This is coming from a raider fan. insert bag on head:headbang

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1589649-buyer-beware-on-these-10-nfl-draft-prospects/page/8
Someone actually watched Allen and Maynard...

ncbears;842110503 said:

---

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1589649-buyer-beware-on-these-10-nfl-draft-prospects/page/8
Someone actually watched Allen and Maynard...

---

Interesting that he cautions that Keenan had to deal with bad QB play and that he seemed down last season. Both are issues that would not persistent when he goes to the NFL.

ncbears;842110503 said:

---

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1589649-buyer-beware-on-these-10-nfl-draft-prospects/page/8
Someone actually watched Allen and Maynard...

---

It is interesting that they use the phrase "buyer beware"; something that could be said to anyone reading bleacher report. Keenan's knee injury is not a chronic issue. When he is healed, he will be one of the best. It is an issue that it may not heal enough to get his latest 40. But nobody in the NFL is going to inherit a problem with KA. What a slam. At worst he's an early 2nd round pick.

ncbears;842110503 said:

---

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1589649-buyer-beware-on-these-10-nfl-draft-prospects/page/8
Someone actually watched Allen and Maynard...

---

Author of that Bleacher Report piece appears to be Ryan Riddle.

LethalFang;842110452 said:

---

As a Niners fan, I think they are crazy if they spend their 1st round pick on Keenan, at least not without his 40-time first.

---

Just like they did with Michael Crabtree right? Crabs never ran his 40, it was rumored that he'd run in the range similar to A. Boldin. I don't think it would've made a difference because both stand out amongst plenty of other recievers that have ran blazing 40s. C'mon now, 40 times have nothing to do with what's on film.

Not sure if that's a comparable situation. Niners had limited wr talent at the time and crabtree wasnt expected to get to sf, except for al davis pulling a head scratcher and picking DHB a few picks before.

Besides, it's a total crapshoot. They should've picked djax in the 2nd round but passed on him for that guard from usc. A very bad pick in retrospect.

Everyone should be aware by now that there are different types of WRs. (See the Dykes/Franklin offense.)
I don't know what the 49ers were looking for at the time, but he projected as a stretch the field guy like Moss. There are also slot WRs and possession WRs. Slot WRs can be speed guys like DJax or oversized guys like Anquin Boldin who create a mismatch with speed or size. Maybe the 49ers needed a possession guy like Crabtree buy not a speed guy like DJax.

In any case, Allen projects to the NFL as a possession guy or feature guy like Boldin. With Anquin Boldin, another possession guy who also creates mismatches, the 49ers are desperate for speed to stretch the field and/or operate in the slot. KA is neither. KA will probably go to either St. Louis or Minnesota, who both have 2 1st rounders and have needs at WR. Also G.B., N.E., Houston and Indy all have significant enough needs at WR to take one in the first round. Not everyone will do so, but that is at least 8 picks, not including Carolina and Buffalo, before the 49ers pick at 31 and 34.

The WR the 49ers need is Tavon Ausin, but he will be gone if the 49ers don't trade up. I expect the 49ers will attempt to trade up to try to get Austin or Milliner (CB) if either falls beyond the 7th pick. In such a case expect the 49ers to negotiate a deal with Buffalo for their 8th pick if QB Smith is gone by then. With the number of picks the 49ers have in the first 3 rounds and the lack of picks the Bills have, there is plenty of wiggle room for a mutually satisfying deal. I expect the 49ers would try to hold onto their first pick of round 2 (34 overall) and get the Bills to bite on one or two of the others.

This scenario is not out of the question as I suspect Smith will be gone to the Jags and Austin should still be on the board. Rumor has it the Bills want to trade down anyway because the QB they really want is Nassib out of Syracuse who has a prior relationship with the Bills coaching staff. Nassib will certainly be available when the Bills select in round 2.

IMHO, despite signing a safety and CB, the biggest early need remains DB. They certainly can get speed WRs like Justin Hunter or Steadman Bailey later in the draft because they already have Jenkins. But the 49ers would not spend the capital to trade up for anybody other than an elite level player like Milliner or Austin. Milliner is likely to be gone, so the 49ers would use their reamaining 2nd round pick to get to a CB like Banks, Cyprien or Elam. One of them should be available at pick 34. If not Reid should be there. I forgot about the possibility of getting Vaccaro (S), instead of Austin. But the draft is deeper at safety than it is at speed WR or elite CB.

The real cost of such a trade is that they lose out on taking any D-linemen or TEs until late in round 2 or early in round 3 unless they trade up again, which I suspect they do in order to get a DE or NT. There are decent TEs like Fauria out of UCLA and Toilolo out of Stanford in the later rounds. Also the 2014 draft should be deep at TE. Assuming that the elite pac-12 guys leave early for the NFL, just the conference alone supplies some good ones.

One way or another, with their 3rd round picks, one or more of the following guys should still be available at DE and or DT...
Corelius Carradine DE Florida St.
Margus Hunt DE SMU
John Jenkins DT Georgia
William Gholston DE Michigan St.
Brandon Williams DT Missouri Southern
Sam Montgomery DE LSU

and they should still be able to get a TE in Travis Kelce (Cincinnati), Gavin Escobar (SDS) or Jordan Reed (Florida) in the 4h.

That's my analysis-multi-round mock draft coming up in separate thread.

So, in summary it looks like this
49ers trade with Bills for the 8th overall pick, giving up the 31st(Rnd.#1), 61st. (Rnd. #2) and 131st (Early Rnd. #5) pick.
49ers take Tavon Ausin WR-West Virginia
With the 34th pick the 49ers take Jason Elam (S) or Jonathan Cyprien(CB)
With the 74th pick the 49ers take one of the DLs from above list.
With the 93rd pick the 49ers take another DL or a TE depending on quality available, probably another DE like John Simon (Ohio St.)
With the 128th pick the 49ers take a TE listed above or Joseph Fauria

Note that the Raiders also may trade down and could have suiters in teams like the Rams and the Vikings as well as the 49ers. Either of those teams have better first round capital to trade than the 49ers. If such a trade is made and Austin subsequently is gone before the 8th pick, the 49ers would then take Vaccaro (S) or Patterson (WR) IMO.

goldenjax;842110888 said:

---

Just like they did with Michael Crabtree right? Crabs never ran his 40, it was rumored that he'd run in the range similar to A. Boldin. I don't think it would've made a difference because both stand out amongst plenty of other recievers that have ran blazing 40s. C'mon now, 40 times have nothing to do with what's on film.

---

Well Crabtree had some amazing college productions. Keenan isn't exactly in that class.

HOTB nailed it. That is a more than ideal draft class for the Niners, although I think Austin is in the 12-18 range.

heartofthebear;842111719 said:

---

Everyone should be aware by now that there are different types of WRs. (See the Dykes/Franklin offense.)
I don't know what the 49ers were looking for at the time, but he projected as a stretch the field guy like Moss. There are also slot WRs and possession WRs. Slot WRs can be speed guys like DJax or oversized guys like Anquin Boldin who creat a mismatch with speed or size. Maybe the 49ers needed a possession guy like Crabtree buy not a speed guy like DJax.

In any case, Allen projects to the NFL as a possession guy or feature guy like Boldin. With Anquin Boldin, another possession guy who also creates mismatches, the 49ers are desperate for speed to stretch the field and/or operate in the slot. KA is neither. KA will probably go to either St. Louis or Minnesota, who both have 2 1st rounders and have needs at WR. Also G.B., N.E., Houston and Indy all have significant enough needs at WR to take one in the first round. Not everyone will do so, but that is at least 8 picks, not including Carolina and Buffalo, before the 49ers pick at 31 and 34.

The WR the 49ers need is Tavon Ausin, but he will be gone if the 49ers don't trade up. I expect the 49ers will attempt to trade up to try to get Austin or Milliner (CB) if either falls beyond the 7th pick. In such a case expect the 49ers to negotiate a deal with Buffalo for their 8th pick if QB Smith is gone by then. With the number of picks the 49ers have in the first 3 rounds and the lack of picks the Bills have, there is plenty of wiggle room for a mutually satisfying deal. I expect the 49ers would try to hold onto their first pick of round 2 (34 overall) and get the Bills to bite on one or two of the others.

This scenario is not out of the question as I suspect Smith will be gone to the Jags and Austin should still be on the board. Rumor has it the Bills want to trade down anyway because the QB they really want is Nassib out of Syracuse who has a prior relationship with the Bills coaching staff. Nassib will certainly be available when the Bills select in round 2.

IMHO, despite signing a safety and CB, the biggest early need remains DB. They certainly can get speed WRs like Justin Hunter or Steadman Bailey later in the draft because they already have Jenkins. But the 49ers would not spend the capital to trade up for anybody other than an elite level player like Milliner or Austin. Milliner is likely to be gone, so the 49ers would use their reamaining 2nd round pick to get to a CB like Banks, Cyprien or Elam. One of them should be available at pick 34. If not Reid should be there. I forgot about the possibility of getting Vaccaro (S), instead of Austin. But the draft is deeper at safety than it is at speed WR or elite CB.

The real cost of such a trade is that they lose out on taking any D-linemen or TEs until late in round 2, unless they trade up again, which I suspect they do in order to get a DE or NT. There are decent TEs like Fauria out of UCLA and Toilolo out of Stanford in the later rounds. Also the 2014 draft should be deep at TE. Assuming that the elite pac-12 guys leave early for the NFL, just the conference alone supplies some good ones.

One way or another, with their 2nd rounder one of the following guys should still be available at DE and or DT...
Corelius Carradine DE Florida St.
Margus Hunt DE SMU
John Jenkins DT Georgia
William Gholston DE Michigan St.
Brandon Williams DT Missouri Southern
Sam Montgomery DE LSU

and they should still be able to get a TE in Travis Kelce (Cincinnati), Gavin Escobar (SDS) or Jordan Reed (Florida) in Rd. #3 or #4.

That's my analysis-multi-round mock draft coming up in separate thread.

So, in summary it looks like this
49ers trade with Bills for the 8th overall pick, giving up the 31st(Rnd.#1), 61st. (Rnd. #2) and 131st (Early Rnd. #5) pick.
49ers take Tavon Ausin WR-West Virginia
With the 34th pick the 49ers take Jason Elam (S) or Jonathan Cyprien(CB)
With the 74th pick the 49ers take one of the DLs from above list.
With the 93rd pick the 49ers take another DL or a TE depending on quality available, probably another DE like John Simon (Ohio St.)
With the 128th pick the 49ers take a TE listed above or Joseph Fauria

Note that the Raiders also may trade down and could have suiters in teams like the Rams and the Vikings as well as the 49ers. Either of those teams have better first round capital to trade than the 49ers. If such a trade is made and Austin subsequently is gone before the 8th pick, the 49ers would then take Vaccaro (S) or Patterson (WR) IMO.

---

wow, kiper and mcshay better watch out. thanks for the info

heartofthebear;842111719 said:

---

Everyone should be aware by now that there are different types of WRs. (See the Dykes/Franklin offense.)
I don't know what the 49ers were looking for at the time, but he projected as a stretch the field guy like Moss. There are also slot WRs and possession WRs. Slot WRs can be speed guys like DJax or oversized guys like Anquin Boldin who creat a mismatch with speed or size. Maybe the 49ers needed a possession guy like Crabtree buy not a speed guy like DJax.

In any case, Allen projects to the NFL as a possession guy or feature guy like Boldin. With Anquin Boldin, another possession guy who also creates mismatches, the 49ers are desperate for speed to stretch the field and/or operate in the slot. KA is neither. KA will probably go to either St. Louis or Minnesota, who both have 2 1st rounders and have needs at WR. Also G.B., N.E., Houston and Indy all have significant enough needs at WR to take one in the first round. Not everyone will do so, but that is at least 8 picks, not including Carolina and Buffalo, before the 49ers pick at 31 and 34.

The WR the 49ers need is Tavon Ausin, but he will be gone if the 49ers don't trade up. I expect the 49ers will attempt to trade up to try to get Austin or Milliner (CB) if either falls beyond the 7th pick. In such a case expect the 49ers to negotiate a deal with Buffalo for their 8th pick if QB Smith is gone by then. With the number of picks the 49ers have in the first 3 rounds and the lack of picks the Bills have, there is plenty of wiggle room for a mutually satisfying deal. I expect the 49ers would try to hold onto their first pick of round 2 (34 overall) and get the Bills to bite on one or two of the others.

This scenario is not out of the question as I suspect Smith will be gone to the Jags and Austin should still be on the board. Rumor has it the Bills want to trade down anyway because the QB they really want is Nassib out of Syracuse who has a prior relationship with the Bills coaching staff. Nassib will certainly be available when the Bills select in round 2.

IMHO, despite signing a safety and CB, the biggest early need remains DB. They certainly can get speed WRs like Justin Hunter or Steadman Bailey later in the draft because they already have Jenkins. But the 49ers would not spend the capital to trade up for anybody other than an elite level player like Milliner or Austin. Milliner is likely to be gone, so the 49ers would use their reamaining 2nd round pick to get to a CB like Banks, Cyprien or Elam. One of them should be available at pick 34. If not Reid should be there. I forgot about the possibility of getting Vaccaro (S), instead of Austin. But the draft is deeper at safety than it is at speed WR or elite CB.

The real cost of such a trade is that they lose out on taking any D-linemen or TEs until late in round 2, unless they trade up again, which I suspect they do in order to get a DE or NT. There are decent TEs like Fauria out of UCLA and Toilolo out of Stanford in the later rounds. Also the 2014 draft should be deep at TE. Assuming that the elite pac-12 guys leave early for the NFL, just the conference alone supplies some good ones.

One way or another, with their 2nd rounder one of the following guys should still be available at DE and or DT...
Corelius Carradine DE Florida St.
Margus Hunt DE SMU
John Jenkins DT Georgia
William Gholston DE Michigan St.
Brandon Williams DT Missouri Southern
Sam Montgomery DE LSU

and they should still be able to get a TE in Travis Kelce (Cincinnati), Gavin Escobar (SDS) or Jordan Reed (Florida) in Rd. #3 or #4.

That's my analysis-multi-round mock draft coming up in separate thread.

So, in summary it looks like this
49ers trade with Bills for the 8th overall pick, giving up the 31st(Rnd.#1), 61st. (Rnd. #2) and 131st (Early Rnd. #5) pick.
49ers take Tavon Ausin WR-West Virginia
With the 34th pick the 49ers take Jason Elam (S) or Jonathan Cyprien(CB)
With the 74th pick the 49ers take one of the DLs from above list.
With the 93rd pick the 49ers take another DL or a TE depending on quality available, probably another DE like John Simon (Ohio St.)
With the 128th pick the 49ers take a TE listed above or Joseph Fauria

Note that the Raiders also may trade down and could have suiters in teams like the Rams and the Vikings as well as the 49ers. Either of those teams have better first round capital to trade than the 49ers. If such a trade is made and Austin subsequently is gone before the 8th pick, the 49ers would then take Vaccaro (S) or Patterson (WR) IMO.

---

HOTB, this is the BEST 49ers draft post on BI by far. Too bad if your scenario does happen and the 49ers trade up to get Austin instead of KA, we are going to hear some more 49ers hate Cal conspiracies, even though Austin is by far a better fit (as you note) for the 49ers.

BlueAndGold;842111732 said:

---

HOTB nailed it. That is a more than ideal draft class for the Niners, although I think Austin is in the 12-18 range.

---

He is, but the 49ers aren't going to be able to trade with anybody between the Bills and the Rams (#16), unless it is Miami, who already has a lot of picks. The Rams aren't going to trade with the 49ers for obvious reasons.
Also, I forgot to mention that, if the 49ers have to "resort to Vaccaro", I think they should still take Cyprien in round #2 but would take a WR instead of a TE with their 4th round pick. They can gets TEs like Toilolo or better in rounds #5 and 6 this year.

Of course, if the 49ers sign Woodson for a year, it does change things slightly. In such a case you would not take 2 DBs with your 1st 2 picks.

My guess is that there is still mutual interest regarding Woodson. But the 49ers are dangerously close to the cap and won't feel comfortable signing him unless they can work out finances with him or some of the existing players so that he can be signed.

They also may be using the depth of the draft at safey as a negotiating tool with Woodson. And I suspect other teams may be doing the same thing as well. I don't think the 49ers will wait until after the draft to sign Woodson as some speculate. At such a point they would not have a negotiating advantage. Knowing that other teams might get more interested in Woodon after the draft may be keeping Woodson from wanting to sign right away. I think some interesting rolling of the dice is going on in 49er headquarters right now in any case.

Thanks for the compliments, but I am nowhere near those ESPN guys. Just a local fan. I also made a mistake on my post. The 49ers would be taking a DL in the 3rd round not the 2nd. It was correct in the summary but not in the text.

No way bills accept that deal. Will have to be at least the 1st, 2nd and 3rd to trade up that high.

tommie317;842111764 said:

---

No way bills accept that deal. Will have to be at least the 1st, 2nd and 3rd to trade up that high.

---

Would the Bills take a 1st, 2nd and early 5th, plus a 2nd or 3rd. round from next year?

heartofthebear;842111774 said:

---

Would the Bills take a 1st, 2nd and early 5th, plus a 2nd or 3rd. round from next year?

---

Of course they would but that would be too much.

heartofthebear;842111774 said:

---

Would the Bills take a 1st, 2nd and early 5th, plus a 2nd or 3rd. round from next year?

---

Yeah, that would be a bad trade value for SF. Many GMs use the famous draft pick value chart. Picks from future years are harder to quantify in terms of points, but I've heard some people say that a pick next year is worth 1 round less than this year. (So a 4th rounder in 2014 would be roughly worth a 5th rounder in 2013 in terms of point value)

Here's a link to a draft value chart for 2013:

http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

philbert_Cal;842111973 said:

---

Yeah, that would be a bad trade value for SF. Many GMs use the famous draft pick value chart. Picks from future years are harder to quantify in terms of points, but I've heard some people say that a pick next year is worth 1 round less than this year. (So a 4th rounder in 2014 would be roughly worth a 5th rounder in 2013 in terms of point value)

Here's a link to a draft value chart for 2013:

http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

---

After reviewing the info. in the link I think the 49ers could reasonably make a similar trade with Carolina. But they would give pick #93 (3rd. round) instead of pick #131. That would reduce their # of picks in the first 3 rounds from 5 to 3. So probably not worth it if you think Tavon would not be worth it. He probably will be gone by then anyway, although I can't think who would take him before Carolina at #14. Part of the value of getting Tavon is that the 49ers would not have defend him 2 times per year as most prognosticators have him going to the Rams. With the 14th pick, the 49ers would be picking before the Rams, even if the Rams trade up to the 15th pick with New Orleans, which is another team that could trade down.

FWIW I evaluated a teams willingness to trade up or down on the basis of their available picks and their position needs. A team would trade down if they needed more picks but didn't have overwhelming need at any given position or they could get that need met later in the round. A team would trade up if they had extra picks and a desire for a particular player.

[U]Teams That Could Trade Down[/U]
Buffalo
Carolina
Oakland
New Orleans
maybe KC-but nobody would want to pay the cost associated with aquiring the #1 overall pick per your chart.

[U]Teams That Could Trade Up[/U]
S.F.
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
St. Louis

Again, based on the chart, the most likely teams to trade are the ones that are not more than 10 picks apart. That is why I see a trade most likely between Minnesota/Pittsburgh and Carolina/New Orleans. A trade between St. Louis and Buffalo is also possible. It would be a stretch for the 49ers to trade up, but they have the most to offer to a team like New Orleans or Carolina.
BTW-thanks for the link, although the #s seem a little inconsistent with the reality of past NFL 1st round deals. But I admit I am no expert on that.

Now mcshay drops Keenan from 1st round:

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=9148812

heartofthebear;842112312 said:

---

BTW-thanks for the link, although the #s seem a little inconsistent with the reality of past NFL 1st round deals. But I admit I am no expert on that.

---

Keep in mind that the chart is just a guide and that everyone has the same chart while negotiating. Sometimes you have to overpay to get the pick/player you want if there are multiple teams competing for the same pick (or at least there is the perception that there is high demand for a pick).