So we have a handful of guys who turned in disastrous inaugural campaigns but eventually turned out positive tenures weighed against the countless multitude of guys who turned in disastrous inaugural campaigns and then continued to be complete disasters.

I don't like those odds.

No one on this board would wager something of real value on the proposition that the Bears will win four games next year. This is particularly true when we would have made that wager this past August. Damn.

UrsusTexicanus;842233393 said:

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So yes, things could be MUCH worse for us.

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lolz

I agree about the recruiting, and its a point the "Cal has plenty of talent" crowd should take note of.
I think however, you are talking about the O-line changes in a vacuum, like practice doesn't have an affect. This is particularly acute with young O-linemen-I think its more about the evolution of some of the guys, and when they became more in-tune with what was being asked, and improved technique on their part.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Ferentz

I think the point is that there have been plenty of times where a coach went on to great success after a terrible first season. Every job is different - NFL or College - with an infinite number of different variables. The only thing we know for sure is that coaches need TIME before we can judge them. And many people here are unwilling to give that to the current staff.

BeggarEd;842233673 said:

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http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Ferentz

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If Tedford would have stayed true to his offensive philosophies and if he would have figured out the academic issues he would still be here with a career record that would look a lot like KF's. KF sure looks like he is stuck in Big 10 .500 mode though. Some great years, some shitty years and a lot of average years. I guess that is what you get when you pay 3.5 million per year.
Thanks for posting this.

I've heard that the locker room may have a lot of fat / lazy players. I'm trying to remember what Mora did when he first came in. I remember he cracked down on some players and generally instilled a tougher culture that was lax before. Did he kick a few players off the team or did some just leave?

kad02002;842233679 said:

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I think the point is that there have been plenty of times where a coach went on to great success after a terrible first season. Every job is different - NFL or College - with an infinite number of different variables. The only thing we know for sure is that coaches need TIME before we can judge them. And many people here are unwilling to give that to the current staff.

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And in those times where such coaches went on to success, in that first year, despite it not being a good one, there were indicators of improvement (from the prior season). Whether a slight improvement in the win column, more ppg on O, less ppg on D, something revealing the new staff is making a positive impact, even if subtle at these early stages, should be evident... If a team and fanbase has such evidence-based results, there are reasons to be optimistic in the hire and future.

It's a crappy season for the Buffs too (worst team in the South, us in the North), and they have new HC also. Coach Mac and staff inherited a mess of a team, but their win total has increased this year. Their offensive is producing noticeably more points compared to last year, with a true freshman QB. Based upon many historical examples, several noted in this thread, there is reason to believe that this hire might be a good one for the Buffs.

A terrible first season under a new regime, does not always equate to a bad decision in the HC hire. A look back to study past turnaround examples finds a common theme of improvement in the first year.

I choose to have hope too, mostly because there is seemingly no other viable option for us. Make no mistake though, with what we just experienced, not a season of slight improvement, or even one that left us languished in neutrality, history is not on our side here. To the contrary, we just endured the worst season in our history.

A more brutal question:

How many good (doesn't need to be great or legendary) coaching hires had first seasons that were not only worse than the previous year, but the worst ever?

I find it prudent to be realistic, neither overly optimistic or pessimistic. We do not have good reason to expect SD and this current staff to take us to the next level...

Cal89;842233741 said:

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I find it prudent to be realistic, neither overly optimistic or pessimistic. We do not have good reason to expect SD and this current staff to take us to the next level...

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Right now "next level" is 11th place in the Pac 12 and we have a long way to go and not sure if this current staff can take us there.

82gradDLSdad;842233682 said:

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If Tedford would have stayed true to his offensive philosophies and if he would have figured out the academic issues he would still be here with a career record that would look a lot like KF's. KF sure looks like he is stuck in Big 10 .500 mode though. Some great years, some shitty years and a lot of average years. I guess that is what you get when you pay 3.5 million per year.
Thanks for posting this.

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He's definitely peaked and kind of gotten stuck in a mode of 5-8 win seasons for several seasons now. But I guess I look to him as a glimmer of hope for Sonny as KF's first 6 seasons went:

• 1 win
  
• 3 wins
  
• 7 wins
  
• 10 wins
  
• 11 wins
  
• 10 wins
  

He also made it to the Orange Bowl twice, winning once and losing once. If JT could have just done a little better in 2004 and 2006 and made a couple of Rose Bowls, there's be a statue of him along with the bear out in front of the stadium.

If Rodgers had connected in the endzone at USC on that last drive in 2004, I guarantee you Jeff Tedford would still be our coach right now. In fact I'll go one further, if the Bears hadn't gotten that late game pass interference call at Arizona in 2006, JT would still be our coach...because in both cases we would have gone to the Rose Bowl. And there's no way the coach who has a statue in front of the stadium gets fired (unless he does something criminal).

I wonder just how much the close-calls hurt JT and affected him psychologically. It's gotta be tough to come so close, and just not be able to get there.

Here's a last what-if. Suppose at the infamous OSU game in 2007, Riley either miraculously makes it into the endzone, or CAL wins in overtime and we become the #1 team in the nation for a week. We might have beat UCLA the next week (with a confident Riley as quarterback) though I don't think we would have kept the #1 ranking...we would have lost again that season. But without Riley's debacle, 2008-2012 might have been a lot different.

We have some big WRs (Anderson, Austim, Boehm, Harris, Powe) but, for whatever reason (RS, etc.) they didn't play a lot.

In spite of his detractors, I would happily take Kirk Ferentz level success from Dykes and crew.

LABear98;842233874 said:

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If Rodgers had connected in the endzone at USC on that last drive in 2004, I guarantee you Jeff Tedford would still be our coach right now. In fact I'll go one further, if the Bears hadn't gotten that late game pass interference call at Arizona in 2006, JT would still be our coach...because in both cases we would have gone to the Rose Bowl. And there's no way the coach who has a statue in front of the stadium gets fired (unless he does something criminal).

I wonder just how much the close-calls hurt JT and affected him psychologically. It's gotta be tough to come so close, and just not be able to get there.

Here's a last what-if. Suppose at the infamous OSU game in 2007, Riley either miraculously makes it into the endzone, or CAL wins in overtime and we become the #1 team in the nation for a week. We might have beat UCLA the next week (with a confident Riley as quarterback) though I don't think we would have kept the #1 ranking...we would have lost again that season. But without Riley's debacle, 2008-2012 might have been a lot different.

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Program building icons still get booted (fired, forced to resign, compelled to retire, kicked upstairs, what have you) when they don't meet current expectations. See Bobby Bowden, Mike Bellotti, John Robinson, Bill Snyder, Phil Fulmer, Lloyd Carr, John Cooper, Terry Donahue and probably a lot of others.

Granted, none of these are exact analogies with Cal, since we haven't been to the Rose Bowl in 55 years, but the point remains: college football is a 'what have you done for me lately' business. When a guy comes in and produces the kind of success a program hasn't seen in a long time, he gets acclaim, adulation and money, but expectations adjust accordingly. Tedford would surely have received a little more rope if he had managed to get to Pasadena in '04 or '06, but not much. The '10-'12 level of inadequacy would still have gotten him fired, it just might have taken another season or three.

freshfunk;842233684 said:

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I've heard that the locker room may have a lot of fat / lazy players. I'm trying to remember what Mora did when he first came in. I remember he cracked down on some players and generally instilled a tougher culture that was lax before. Did he kick a few players off the team or did some just leave?

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He kicked off bad apples. Including former Cal target Randall Carroll.


http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2012/01/ucla-football-carroll-nelson-and-flowers-leave-bruins-program.html