OaktownBear;842540458 said:
1. I think you make a mistake in thinking that if major conferences go to 16 that all 5 will add teams to go to 16. I think it is more likely that one implodes and the other 4 take on teams to make 4 conferences of 16. This would be great for anyone in one of the 4 because what it will mean in practice is 8 conferences of 8, and a playoff with the conference championships being round 1.
2. I could absolutely see SDSU being attractive for any conference other than the Pac-12 for the reasons you say. The Pac-12 already has your market and recruiting territory. The only benefit I see to the Pac-12 is in defending its territory from other conferences. That being the case, I think the only chance SDSU has at the Pac-12, if that is what they want, is to get another suitor.
This.
Right now, the SEC and B1G are at the top of the conference heap. Strongest of the P5 leagues about to get massive new TV deals. They are not worried at all about teams leaving the nest to join other conferences. When they decide to become 16 team Super Conferences, they will raid other leagues to do so. Very likely that the SEC will dip into the ACC for Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. This will expand the conference footprint so that the SEC covers the entire American South, adding the lucrative Atlantic Seaboard states of North Carolina and Virginia, plus lots of $$$$ eyeballs and TV sets.
B1G will also expand. Might try to raid the ACC again for schools like Virginia or North Carolina. Or maybe Jim Delany grabs Kansas from the Big XII.
Pac-12 has security that is provided not only from $$$ but from geography. Extremely unlikely that a member school is leaving for the far flung B1G or SEC. Big XII instability means that Arizona or Utah isn't leaving for that league in our lifetimes. Pac-12 problem is a lack of attractive candidates for expansion outside Power 5 leagues. San Diego State? Pac-12 already owns that market. Fresno, Boise Colorado State? Small time, also exist within Pac-12 footprint and bring nothing to the table. BYU? No chance for reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum.
The ACC has Notre Dame in it's back pocket and it looks likely that eventually the Irish will join the ACC as a football member. But league is susceptible to raiding by nearby SEC and B1G.
Big XII? They need 6 teams to get to 16, and like the Pac-12 there is a lack of attractive candidates. Cincinnati, Memphis, BYU, Houston, Tulane, or UCF? None of those schools move the needle. League is also susceptible to raiding by B1G and SEC. Don't think Kansas would bail to the B1G in a heartbeat?
Big XII and ACC face future instability. Grant of Rights agreements? Won't matter, when the money is on the table the knives will come out and teams will be running for the exits.
To me, the best solution for the Pac-12 and the Big XII powers (Texas and OU) remains with each other. Form a Pac-16... West division is original Pac 8, East division is ASU, Arizona, Utah and Colorado along with Texas, Oklahoma and two of the following... Texas Tech, Okie State and/or Kansas.
In this scenario, you'd have 4 Superconferences. SEC, B1G, Pac-16 and some version of a 16 team ACC, which will lose between 2 and four teams, but then add Notre Dame followed by a fight for membership between... West Virginia, UConn, Memphis, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UCF and whoever else is being squeezed out by realignment.