heartofthebear;842619300 said:

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I believe that they are #123 in yards/gm. but that is because they don't throw much. They are fairly successful when they do throw. They are second in the nation is yards per completion. And they are #14 in the nation in passing efficiency. It is true that they only complete 50% of their passes.

Their QB has over 10 yards/pass attempt.
Goff is at 8.64

I am not trying to be a butt about this but if you are going to challenge me I am going to provide the information to back up what I say.

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Last 2 games:
35 yards passing against SDSU
6-16 with 3 INT's against New Mexico

At some point don't you have to say, "Ok, I was wrong…"

beelzebear;842619305 said:

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I'd have more faith in this if: a) Cal had a better D and better LBs and b) Cal had seen the TOO before...like in the past 3 years.

p.s. at least it will be an interesting match up...crazy TOO vs. a supposedly high flying passing offense. I would like to see Goff completely uncork it and toss 7 TDs.

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If Cal had a better D and LBs, Cal would be playing in the Rose Bowl.

heartofthebear;842619313 said:

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Yes I brought that up specifically because Moragabear was suggesting that Cal could just cheat with the safeties in the box since our LB situation isn't good. But the stats show that Air Force can throw for 20 yards a completion in situations like that. So I don't think that is necessarily the answer either.

I don't think that Air Force is a passing threat, but, like Utah, they can burn you downfield if you don't stay honest.

It will be interesting to see how Kaufman handles it.

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In 4/2/5 against the TOO, the lbs don't have to be real mobile. Their assignment is the fb, every time, either to one side of the C or the other. If their qb pulls it and drops back to pass, the off lb should drop to help cover the shallow middle.

air force sucks

heartofthebear;842619300 said:

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I believe that they are #123 in yards/gm. but that is because they don't throw much. They are fairly successful when they do throw. They are second in the nation is yards per completion. And they are #14 in the nation in passing efficiency. It is true that they only complete 50% of their passes.

Their QB has over 10 yards/pass attempt.
Goff is at 8.64

I am not trying to be a butt about this but if you are going to challenge me I am going to provide the information to back up what I say.

---

Again, if we can get off the numbers and talk about base talent. What you hope is that the playing the safeties up as MB suggested does not open yourself up because hey don't have the speed at WR to exploit the 1 on 1 match ups. And if the WR's don't come open quickly, the theory would be that the Cal push upfront is not going to be handled by Air Force. But again, this isn't trying to stop Oregon's running game.
I am more concerned with Cal's ability to wrap up and make tackles. And if they don't get to the QB in the rare passing downs, does it go south quickly.

oski003;842619136 said:

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You are not being a negabear. Negabears downplay opponents so that, win or lose, it sucks.

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Winning the Bowl game would be nice. But you expect every Cal fan to get excited about Air Force? This is a team that lost to SDSU, an after-thought on Cal's schedule, or otherwise known as the "warm up to the Texas game." You went to the SDSU game with the same excitement that you had at the SC game?
FYI-there were not a lot of negative posts after the SDSU game, nor were there a ton after the Utah game-more just questions about Goff. Things got ugly when the ("please don't criticize my") Bears had a coach not get them ready off of a bye week.

A view:

1.) Air Force's TOO will be more than a handful. They rarely have negative plays and any hesitation with an assignment or a missed tackle and it's a big play. We're going to give up some yards and points to these guys.
2.) Our injuries at LB are not a huge factor. We have four healthy upperclassmen, two of whom are team leaders and our safeties are used to playing close to the line of scrimmage as MB pointed out
3.) The MWC has done okay in bowls against the Pac 12 for the simple reason that Pac12 teams rarely are motivated to play a MWC opponent. 50% of bowl game outcomes are determined by who shows up and wants it. Given Cal's bowl drought, I cannot imagine our Bears not looking at this game as their Super Bowl.
4.) AF has a very respectable pass defense. Good pass rushers and a strong secondary. They are no joke in this regard.
5.) AF struggles to stop the run, especially when playing P5 teams.
6.) The key for the Bears is to get them into 3rd and 5+ yards when we're on defense (they will really struggle) and to play from ahead. I cannot imagine our offense not being able to move the ball and score on them. They are going to have to sell out to stop the run and that will open the passing game.
7.) Defensively, I think the depth we have and AKs penchant to substitute will help us stay fresh which is a key against the TOO. Tired minds = missed assignments and tired bodies = missed tackles.
8.) Could be close for a half. Final score prediction is 41-31. Vegas line is Cal -7

heartofthebear;842619311 said:

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You know, I don't make things up for the sake of causing alarm. I actually make an effort to know what I am talking about first. That doesn't mean I am always right, but I am often enough to deserve a bit more respect than your post implies.

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Again, I don't agree with the National stat usage, but your thoughts are not without merit or consideration. Cal was 7-5: thinking they are going to beat everyone under the sun is silly. Yes, the 5 teams Cal lost to were better than Air Force, but the Falcons run a gimmick offense-you have a right to be concerned.
Your post(s) are worthy of discussion (which means we can disagree just like you would with your buddy over a beer) but seem to be quite often wasted on this audience.

CalHoopFan;842619459 said:

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A view:

1.) Air Force's TOO will be more than a handful. They rarely have negative plays and any hesitation with an assignment or a missed tackle and it's a big play. We're going to give up some yards and points to these guys.
2.) Our injuries at LB are not a huge factor. We have four healthy upperclassmen, two of whom are team leaders and our safeties are used to playing close to the line of scrimmage as MB pointed out
3.) The MWC has done okay in bowls against the Pac 12 for the simple reason that Pac12 teams rarely are motivated to play a MWC opponent. 50% of bowl game outcomes are determined by who shows up and wants it. Given Cal's bowl drought, I cannot imagine our Bears not looking at this game as their Super Bowl.
4.) AF has a very respectable pass defense. Good pass rushers and a strong secondary. They are no joke in this regard.
5.) AF struggles to stop the run, especially when playing P5 teams.
6.) The key for the Bears is to get them into 3rd and 5+ yards when we're on defense (they will really struggle) and to play from ahead. I cannot imagine our offense not being able to move the ball and score on them. They are going to have to sell out to stop the run and that will open the passing game.
7.) Defensively, I think the depth we have and AKs penchant to substitute will help us stay fresh which is a key against the TOO. Tired minds = missed assignments and tired bodies = missed tackles.
8.) Could be close for a half. Final score prediction is 41-31. Vegas line is Cal -7

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For all the reasons you stated, AFA is a great matchup as it will push both our O and D against something totally new, requiring them to work and think, paying attention to every play.
- TF said the AFA D will be similar to others we've seen in that they mix their blitzes and schemes, so our OL will get a good test, which is needed.
- Our D will have to follow their assignments, again requiring concentration and discipline.

Great test for our O and D.

mbBear;842619460 said:

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Again, I don't agree with the National stat usage, but your thoughts are not without merit or consideration. Cal was 7-5: thinking they are going to beat everyone under the sun is silly. Yes, the 5 teams Cal lost to were better than Air Force, but the Falcons run a gimmick offense-you have a right to be concerned.
Your post(s) are worthy of discussion (which means we can disagree just like you would with your buddy over a beer) but seem to be quite often wasted on this audience.

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Agreed

I posted a couple weeks ago there is one way to beat the military teams: They all play the triple option, being fast but undersized (although Air Force can get some heavy weights, since the B52's can still get them off the ground). You need to be able to cover the qb/rb end runs and to do that you need a 3-4 instead of a 4-3. The secondary is like any other, covering pass plays, but the option run is critical to their offense. I hope our coaches figure that out!!!!

89Bear;842619432 said:

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Last 2 games:
35 yards passing against SDSU
6-16 with 3 INT's against New Mexico

At some point don't you have to say, "Ok, I was wrong"

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I'm ready whenever you are.

CalHoopFan;842619459 said:

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A view:

1.) Air Force's TOO will be more than a handful. They rarely have negative plays and any hesitation with an assignment or a missed tackle and it's a big play. We're going to give up some yards and points to these guys.
2.) Our injuries at LB are not a huge factor. We have four healthy upperclassmen, two of whom are team leaders and our safeties are used to playing close to the line of scrimmage as MB pointed out
3.) The MWC has done okay in bowls against the Pac 12 for the simple reason that Pac12 teams rarely are motivated to play a MWC opponent. 50% of bowl game outcomes are determined by who shows up and wants it. Given Cal's bowl drought, I cannot imagine our Bears not looking at this game as their Super Bowl.
4.) AF has a very respectable pass defense. Good pass rushers and a strong secondary. They are no joke in this regard.
5.) AF struggles to stop the run, especially when playing P5 teams.
6.) The key for the Bears is to get them into 3rd and 5+ yards when we're on defense (they will really struggle) and to play from ahead. I cannot imagine our offense not being able to move the ball and score on them. They are going to have to sell out to stop the run and that will open the passing game.
7.) Defensively, I think the depth we have and AKs penchant to substitute will help us stay fresh which is a key against the TOO. Tired minds = missed assignments and tired bodies = missed tackles.
8.) Could be close for a half. Final score prediction is 41-31. Vegas line is Cal -7

---

I think this is a pretty good assessment and makes my points better than I do, although I don't agree that we are OK at LB. We'll see. Who are the 4 healthy upperclassmen?
Broussard
Jefferson
Nickerson
Kearny

???
I'm not sure how many of those guys are healthy and speedy enough to get to the edge. Safeties up?
Garrett Brown is a WR that averages 20+ yards per catch for AF.
I don't know what his measurables are.
I'll look it up.

heartofthebear;842619313 said:

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Yes I brought that up specifically because Moragabear was suggesting that Cal could just cheat with the safeties in the box since our LB situation isn't good. But the stats show that Air Force can throw for 20 yards a completion in situations like that. So I don't think that is necessarily the answer either.

I don't think that Air Force is a passing threat, but, like Utah, they can burn you downfield if you don't stay honest.

It will be interesting to see how Kaufman handles it.

---

I won't worry too much if Air Force completes two twenty yard passes against us. They can't drive the field that way. Every team loads up in the box to stop the triple option, yet the stats say that Air Force hardly ever throws more than 15 times a game. No matter what we do with the safeties, they aren't going to beat us by throwing. None of their WR's has more than 4 receiving TD's. They're only going to beat us by running, so we should trust White and Allensworth to cancel out their outside WR's and let the other guys play 9-on-9 to stop the rest. We'll remove defenders from the box as they remove receivers from the box, but otherwise just fill gaps and play ball.

berk18;842619748 said:

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I won't worry too much if Air Force completes two twenty yard passes against us. They can't drive the field that way. Every team loads up in the box to stop the triple option, yet the stats say that Air Force hardly ever throws more than 15 times a game. No matter what we do with the safeties, they aren't going to beat us by throwing. None of their WR's has more than 4 receiving TD's. They're only going to beat us by running, so we should trust White and Allensworth to cancel out their outside WR's and let the other guys play 9-on-9 to stop the rest. We'll remove defenders from the box as they remove receivers from the box, but otherwise just fill gaps and play ball.

---

Thanks Berk, have you had a chance to do any other analysis of this game?

It is hard to see how Air Force can stop our offense (see our games vs. ASU and OSU not to mention outgaining Stanfurd as illustrations of our O being on a roll recently). At the same time, given our defense it seems that Air Force should be able to move the ball.

It seems to me that this game will come down to who scores TD's vs. FG's. On the surface I sure like our chances more of making big plays and TD's. I am hoping that as we saw in the ASU game, we slowed down a good running team once they got into the Red Zone and could hold them to FG's.

It seems being disciplined and in the right place has been a strength of our D this year and we have mainly looked bad against teams with superior athletes in space (Heard at Texas, the entire O at Oregon). I look for our guys to generally be in the right spot and not playing against guys who can beat us by their talent alone.

Other key factors could be turnovers and special teams.

Some option teams put the ball on the ground a lot but I haven't looked at this stat with Air Force. It would be fascinating to analyze turnovers by Cal this year as during our initial 5 game winning streak we had a huge turnover advantage; conversely we had a spate of turnovers in our losses.

One possible take away is that we have not turned over the ball against teams who are not physically bigger and stronger than us. I watched a little bit of the Air Force game vs. SDSU and the Falcons certainly didn't show superior size, speed and athleticism on D in the part I saw.

Our Special Teams have been weak on returns but they have generally prevented the big play from opponents with McCaffery's TD return being a back breaking exception. I would hope that we would be at least even in this category but have not looked how Air Force has done in the arena.

I hope to have time for a thorough post on the triple option run game before the bowl. Fingers crossed.

NVBear78;842619767 said:

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It seems being disciplined and in the right place has been a strength of our D this year and we have mainly looked bad against teams with superior athletes in space (Heard at Texas, the entire O at Oregon). I look for our guys to generally be in the right spot and not playing against guys who can beat us by their talent alone.

---

I thought the same thing when I watched the Oregon game. We were adjusting fine to shifts and things like that, and filling into the right gaps, but the holes were so big that the unblocked guy in the hole missed tons of tackles. Hopefully Air Force won't be able to stretch our front so much. This is where playing a vanilla base defense, but getting tons of reps against a million different things, should pay off. That's a major difference from when we played Nevada with Pendergast as DC, and we had a more pro-style blitz and coverage package, but weren't quick with adjusting and reacting out of each of our many different calls.

NVBear78;842619767 said:

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Some option teams put the ball on the ground a lot but I haven't looked at this stat with Air Force. It would be fascinating to analyze turnovers by Cal this year as during our initial 5 game winning streak we had a huge turnover advantage; conversely we had a spate of turnovers in our losses.

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Air Force lost five fumbles combined against MSU and Navy, and four the rest of the season. Hopefully we can speed up their QB's decisions through an athletic advantage and force some of those TO's. They also throw about a pick a game. I don't expect Air Force to be able to do the things that produced all those INT's against Utah. If we don't fumble on routine plays like we sometimes do, I'd hope for us to be about +2-3 in TO's. I really do think our offense should roll. Air Force has a worse passing defense than SDSU, and their run defense is middle of the pack. If we can exploit just a few TO's plus some stops, we should be able to get a lead, at which point they can run the ball all they want.

berk18;842619802 said:

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I hope to have time for a thorough post on the triple option run game before the bowl. Fingers crossed.



I thought the same thing when I watched the Oregon game. We were adjusting fine to shifts and things like that, and filling into the right gaps, but the holes were so big that the unblocked guy in the hole missed tons of tackles. Hopefully Air Force won't be able to stretch our front so much. This is where playing a vanilla base defense, but getting tons of reps against a million different things, should pay off. That's a major difference from when we played Nevada with Pendergast as DC, and we had a more pro-style blitz and coverage package, but weren't quick with adjusting and reacting out of each of our many different calls.



Air Force lost five fumbles combined against MSU and Navy, and four the rest of the season. Hopefully we can speed up their QB's decisions through an athletic advantage and force some of those TO's. They also throw about a pick a game. I don't expect Air Force to be able to do the things that produced all those INT's against Utah. If we don't fumble on routine plays like we sometimes do, I'd hope for us to be about +2-3 in TO's. I really do think our offense should roll. Air Force has a worse passing defense than SDSU, and their run defense is middle of the pack. If we can exploit just a few TO's plus some stops, we should be able to get a lead, at which point they can run the ball all they want.

---

Thanks Berk

NVBear78;842619767 said:

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Thanks Berk, have you had a chance to do any other analysis of this game?

It is hard to see how Air Force can stop our offense (see our games vs. ASU and OSU not to mention outgaining Stanfurd as illustrations of our O being on a roll recently). At the same time, given our defense it seems that Air Force should be able to move the ball.

It seems to me that this game will come down to who scores TD's vs. FG's. On the surface I sure like our chances more of making big plays and TD's. I am hoping that as we saw in the ASU game, we slowed down a good running team once they got into the Red Zone and could hold them to FG's.

It seems being disciplined and in the right place has been a strength of our D this year and we have mainly looked bad against teams with superior athletes in space (Heard at Texas, the entire O at Oregon). I look for our guys to generally be in the right spot and not playing against guys who can beat us by their talent alone.

Other key factors could be turnovers and special teams.

Some option teams put the ball on the ground a lot but I haven't looked at this stat with Air Force. It would be fascinating to analyze turnovers by Cal this year as during our initial 5 game winning streak we had a huge turnover advantage; conversely we had a spate of turnovers in our losses.

One possible take away is that we have not turned over the ball against teams who are not physically bigger and stronger than us. I watched a little bit of the Air Force game vs. SDSU and the Falcons certainly didn't show superior size, speed and athleticism on D in the part I saw.

Our Special Teams have been weak on returns but they have generally prevented the big play from opponents with McCaffery's TD return being a back breaking exception. I would hope that we would be at least even in this category but have not looked how Air Force has done in the arena.

---

I think Cal compares well with Air Force when it comes to STs and TOs. But another key will be getting our D off the field after 3rd down. Keep Air Force at 3rd and at least 5. I am feeling much better about things after watching the SDS vs. Air Force game tonight.

heartofthebear;842619869 said:

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I think Cal compares well with Air Force when it comes to STs and TOs. But another key will be getting our D off the field after 3rd down. Keep Air Force at 3rd and at least 5. I am feeling much better about things after watching the SDS vs. Air Force game tonight.

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Where did you find a replay, would love to see the entire game. Air Force doesnt look imposing in the eyeball test. But we know they will be disciplined and execute their system well.

ps anybody know Jalil's health for the game? He is quite a force against the run game.

NVBear78;842619876 said:

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Where did you find a replay, would love to see the entire game. Air Force doesnt look imposing in the eyeball test. But we know they will be disciplined and execute their system well.

ps anybody know Jalil's health for the game? He is quite a force against the run game.

---

I believe on paper Jalil is not listed as injured.
But I haven't heard anything specific from Dykes and those injury reports can be misleading.
Just because someone can play doesn't mean they are 100% and/or able to play at the level we are used to.
Lasco is a great example of this. So many times this year Lasco has been "ready" yet after the game we find out that he really wasn't "100%" until 2 weeks later.

The link for the ESPN 3 replay of the SDS vs. Air Force game is here:
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index#type/replay/search/Air%20Force/days/days-30/sport/football/

NVBear78;842619876 said:

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Where did you find a replay, would love to see the entire game. Air Force doesnt look imposing in the eyeball test. But we know they will be disciplined and execute their system well.

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The MSU game is also on youtube:


Michigan State's defense is a lot like our (in X's and O's, not in talent and execution), so that's probably how Air Force will attack us.

Unit2Sucks;842619147 said:

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Name one team outside of Michigan State that played AFA and wouldn't trade linebackers with us. I'm not saying it's not cause for concern, everything is always a cause for concern when you have a mediocre team, but we should have some confidence in our guys and our staff. We have far more talent across the board and 3 weeks to prepare for this.

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Utah State. They have two all-conference linebackers. :p

heartofthebear;842619742 said:

---

I think this is a pretty good assessment and makes my points better than I do, although I don't agree that we are OK at LB. We'll see. Who are the 4 healthy upperclassmen?
Broussard
Jefferson
Nickerson
Kearny

???
I'm not sure how many of those guys are healthy and speedy enough to get to the edge. Safeties up?
Garrett Brown is a WR that averages 20+ yards per catch for AF.
I don't know what his measurables are.
I'll look it up.

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Brown averages 2 receptions per GAME, and he is the leader of the team at 26 receptions.

89Bear;842620024 said:

---

Brown averages 2 receptions per GAME, and he is the leader of the team at 26 receptions.

---

He would rank pretty far down our list.

With so many of our linebackers out has anybody looked at the size of their offense of line and running backs?

89Bear;842620024 said:

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Brown averages 2 receptions per GAME, and he is the leader of the team at 26 receptions.

---

'
Everybody is mediocre until they find the gift of playing the Cal defense in their holiday stocking.

heartofthebear;842620135 said:

---

'
Everybody is mediocre until they find the gift of playing the Cal defense in their holiday stocking.

---

That has been true but the good news is that this year every single QB did not have a career day against us........

good summary from CGB on defending the Option

Quote:

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I never really know what to think for these games. Cal will get to use a three linebacker set as their base defensive package for the third time all year (Stanfurd, SDSU), and they won't have a behemoth offensive line to contend with. I think it's highly possible that the Cal defense can clamp down after the first couple of drives. Then again, Cal has let me down a number of times, so we could see an implosion in Texas. I think the real happening will be closer to the former than the latter, so prepare yourselves Cal fans, this should be a good midday bowl matchup.

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http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2015/12/23/10304980/know-the-enemy-previewing-the-air-force-offense

Number 031343;842618909 said:

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Good analysis. I fear you may be correct.

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One word: Shootout!!!!

Cal is not a good matchup for Air Force. After Michigan state we are the biggest and fastest team with the most dynamic offense they will play all year.

Other things to unnecessarily worry about: Estonia invading the US, Bill Clinton and George W Bush getting 3rd terms, how to manage the uncomfortable situation when Kate leaves Prince William and asks me to leave my wife.

I wouldn't bet against a Clinton third term...

Cal88;842621166 said:

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I wouldn't bet against a Clinton third term...

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Heaven help us. Hey, I got religion AND politics in there!

tequila4kapp;842621109 said:

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Cal is not a good matchup for Air Force. After Michigan state we are the biggest and fastest team with the most dynamic offense they will play all year.

Other things to unnecessarily worry about: Estonia invading the US, Bill Clinton and George W Bush getting 3rd terms, how to manage the uncomfortable situation when Kate leaves Prince William and asks me to leave my wife.

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It was just a post to raise awareness. I'm not so worried about Air Force, especially after watching one of their games on replay last weekend. They don't seem very fast or quick. I think you need that to run the triple option.

heartofthebear;842621235 said:

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It was just a post to raise awareness. I'm not so worried about Air Force, especially after watching one of their games on replay last weekend. They don't seem very fast or quick. I think you need that to run the triple option.

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You have raised awareness about how gloomy it can get in the SC Mountains and the effects of that on moods and mindsets.

tequila4kapp;842621109 said:

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Cal is not a good matchup for Air Force. After Michigan state we are the biggest and fastest team with the most dynamic offense they will play all year.

Other things to unnecessarily worry about: Estonia invading the US, Bill Clinton and George W Bush getting 3rd terms, how to manage the uncomfortable situation when Kate leaves Prince William and asks me to leave my wife.

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Doesn't the last one go under "no brainer" not "uncomfortable?" That whole sentence was very funny...

heartofthebear;842621235 said:

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It was just a post to raise awareness. I'm not so worried about Air Force, especially after watching one of their games on replay last weekend. They don't seem very fast or quick. I think you need that to run the triple option.

---

I was mostly just having some fun, though we Bears do have a propensity to see the worst in everything