bearchamp said:

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None of the statistical measures take in to account catastrophic injuries such as Garbers this year. What an OC does with a back-up is laudable and interesting, but not a true measure of his system.

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But what he does with a backup may be a true measure of his ability to build depth on the roster.

bearchamp said:

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None of the statistical measures take in to account catastrophic injuries such as Garbers this year. What an OC does with a back-up is laudable and interesting, but not a true measure of his system.

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What about 2017 and 2018? Three years in a row we were one of the 20 worst offenses in the country.

Besides the only other time we scored more than 30 (WSU) was with Modster at QB. It wasn't the QB as much as the opponent that determined our success.

Even if you look at the games where Garbers played, we still generally did worse than those teams gave up on average. Illinois was maybe our best game, especially scoring. However we had 395 yards of offense against a team that gave up 409.5 on average. We had 123 yards rushing against a team that gave up an average of 196.5. We beat them by 15 but a 3-9 Northwestern team beat them by 19 points. Eastern Michigan put up 34 on them in their win. They were not a good team, #80 in Sagarin recent (just behind 4-8 Tulsa).

It felt good, but we can do much, much better. Looking forward to seeing who Wilcox brings in.

calumnus said:

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bearchamp said:

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None of the statistical measures take in to account catastrophic injuries such as Garbers this year. What an OC does with a back-up is laudable and interesting, but not a true measure of his system.

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What about 2017 and 2018? Three years in a row we were one of the 20 worst offenses in the country.

Besides the only other time we scored more than 30 (WSU) was with Modster at QB. It wasn't the QB as much as the opponent that determined our success.

Even if you look at the games where Garbers played, we still generally did worse than those teams gave up on average. Illinois was maybe our best game, especially scoring. However we had 395 yards of offense against a team that gave up 409.5 on average. We had 123 yards rushing against a team that gave up an average of 196.5. We beat them by 15 but a 3-9 Northwestern team beat them by 19 points. Eastern Michigan put up 34 on them in their win. They were not a good team, #80 in Sagarin recent (just behind 4-8 Tulsa).

It felt good, but we can do much, much better. Looking forward to seeing who Wilcox brings in.

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I agree with a lot of this as far as we need to take our opponents into account. However, Illinois did beat Wisconsin who went to the Rose Bowl and came within a whisker of beating the Ducks. I feel compelled to state this given you used the Northwestern loss as evidence of how bad Illinois was. Illinois was, like Cal, a borderline bowl team that ended up in a borderline bowl. Just make sure you look at their entire body of work and not just their worst losses.

How about Bill Musgrave?

oskirules said:

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dimitrig said:

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calumnus said:

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bearchamp said:

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None of the statistical measures take in to account catastrophic injuries such as Garbers this year. What an OC does with a back-up is laudable and interesting, but not a true measure of his system.

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What about 2017 and 2018? Three years in a row we were one of the 20 worst offenses in the country.

Besides the only other time we scored more than 30 (WSU) was with Modster at QB. It wasn't the QB as much as the opponent that determined our success.

Even if you look at the games where Garbers played, we still generally did worse than those teams gave up on average. Illinois was maybe our best game, especially scoring. However we had 395 yards of offense against a team that gave up 409.5 on average. We had 123 yards rushing against a team that gave up an average of 196.5. We beat them by 15 but a 3-9 Northwestern team beat them by 19 points. Eastern Michigan put up 34 on them in their win. They were not a good team, #80 in Sagarin recent (just behind 4-8 Tulsa).

It felt good, but we can do much, much better. Looking forward to seeing who Wilcox brings in.

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I agree with a lot of this as far as we need to take our opponents into account. However, Illinois did beat Wisconsin who went to the Rose Bowl and came within a whisker of beating the Ducks. I feel compelled to state this given you used the Northwestern loss as evidence of how bad Illinois was. Illinois was, like Cal, a borderline bowl team that ended up in a borderline bowl. Just make sure you look at their entire body of work and not just their worst losses.

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My point was that Northwestern beat them by 19 when we beat them by 15 and felt really good about it.

Yes, they had that 1 point win over Wisconsin. That was a huge upset and clearly the highlight of their season. They also lost to Eastern Michigan who scored 34 on them.

Looking at their whole body of work is why I cited Sagarin, where they are #80 in Recent, just behind 4-8 Tulsa and well behind 3-9 Northwestern (I.e the loss to Northwestern was not an upset).

Again, our highest point total of the year previously was not with Garbers, it was with Modster at QB putting up good numbers against a bad WSU defense. The opponent matters.

Though we both had only 4 wins on our respective conferences, we are clearly the better team, #41 in Sagarin.

Anyway, the win felt good and the future looks bright.

PtownBear1 said:

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My guess is we're going to be underwhelmed with Wilcox's OC hire, but we'll be pleasantly surprised with the results. Sort of like the DeRuyter hire. Wilcox's first OC hire was splashy and didn't pan out, so I'm thinking Wilcox goes with an out of work veteran OC this time around. Someone who hasn't impressed of late but was successful in the past.

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Boom - called it. Although personally I think it's a solid hire and not underwhelming.

PtownBear1 said:

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PtownBear1 said:

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My guess is we're going to be underwhelmed with Wilcox's OC hire, but we'll be pleasantly surprised with the results. Sort of like the DeRuyter hire. Wilcox's first OC hire was splashy and didn't pan out, so I'm thinking Wilcox goes with an out of work veteran OC this time around. Someone who hasn't impressed of late but was successful in the past.

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Boom - called it. Although personally I think it's a solid hire and not underwhelming.

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Good call

MathTeacherMike said:

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0% chance of Kellen Moore. He is a Jerry Jones golden-boy, and will probably be retained regardless of the new coach of the Cowboys (I'm sure JJ will make it a condition of getting the HC job).

Even if he left Dallas he would be snapped up by another NFL team.

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Good call
https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/06/dallas-cowboys-mike-mccarthy-kellen-moore-contract-length/

PtownBear1 said:

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PtownBear1 said:

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My guess is we're going to be underwhelmed with Wilcox's OC hire, but we'll be pleasantly surprised with the results. Sort of like the DeRuyter hire. Wilcox's first OC hire was splashy and didn't pan out, so I'm thinking Wilcox goes with an out of work veteran OC this time around. Someone who hasn't impressed of late but was successful in the past.

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Boom - called it. Although personally I think it's a solid hire and not underwhelming.

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Apart from everything else, I like that Musgrave has an OC's personality: smart and introverted. He will not be running to players to high five or hug them after a big play like he's the HC, he will be up in the press box analyzing, devising and sending in the next play.

I think Musgrave will put our guys in a position to succeed and that will lead to improved recruiting.

Agree,. he's a good fit for the program, for academics, and also for Wilcox, personality wise and with his Oregon background.

Golden One said:

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bearchamp said:

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None of the statistical measures take in to account catastrophic injuries such as Garbers this year. What an OC does with a back-up is laudable and interesting, but not a true measure of his system.

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But what he does with a backup may be a true measure of his ability to build depth on the roster.

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Good lord, how so?