calbear80 said:

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GoBears89 said:

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So we beat Oregon, end up 1-0 & get to the P12 Championship Game!

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Will we go to the Pac-12 Championship game if we are undefeated (0-0) this season?

Go Bears!

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I never thought I'd see the day when Cal got to mid-November undefeated.

Some might counter that we also are seeing a winless Cal team in mid-November, but I'm old enough to remember 2001, so I've already seen that.

ASU's season may be done!

OaktownBear said:

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ducky23 said:

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B.A. Bearacus said:

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Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

BearGoggles said:

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OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

BearGoggles said:

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OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

Its a misleading statistic.

Last spring only NY had a serious capacity problem (and were still turning down ICU beds over moral objections towards who paid for them). There wasnt a problem nationally at all. The Navy ship in the west coast was unused. The field hospitals that were set up went unused. The excess ICU capacity went unused. The normal ICU capacity went unused.

So, across the country it was low, but concentrated in one region. Now it is high in several regions (a lot of locations at 100%+ capacity), AND with life back to normal, that ICU capacity is filled up with normal ICU patients, leaving less slack for COVID. BUT, because it is spread out, being higher is not an indication of the kind of threat NYC saw in the spring.

One of the many things I look at (and people can claim its a bad metric all they want, but they are just simpletons), is lagging infections against deaths by 10-20 days. You see a definite correlation between infection and death in France, for example: (7 day moving average of new infections in blue and new deaths in orange, log axis against date axis)

You do see a correlation in the US, but not as clean.

Additionally, by FAR my favorite charting of COVID, log scale of total deaths against log scaled new deaths (or infections).

What you see here is that the US has maintained a pretty steady rate, balancing being open and not having COVID deaths "run away." What you ideally see is the sudden drop off (cliff) that Germany and France had. That would indicate the end of a wave. But you do NOT want to see a sudden jump, like France and Germany show. Middle ground is a wave, like the US has. "3.6, not great, not bad."

Here is the same graph as a function of deaths per 100k.
Proper reading of this is that you want a country to be low (ie fewer new deaths) and to the left (fewer total deaths). Yeah, I changed the colors. Typically they are automatic, but I wanted to highlight the US.

I chose Germany and France because they recently shut down, Italy, because it was very hard hit early, and the US, because a lot of us live here, and it seems to be the topic.

HighlandDutch said:

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BearGoggles said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

This article is exactly the problem with reporting. Technically correct, a giant clickbait scary headline, but with very little information. At least it shows region and some states data.

I like this source https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2020/hospital-capacity-covid19-pandemic or https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-14day-change.html But they are way out of date.

"somehow" it got hard to get reliable data around July. I will leave that up to guessing.

LunchTime said:

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HighlandDutch said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

This article is exactly the problem with reporting. Technically correct, a giant clickbait scary headline, but with very little information. At least it shows region and some states data.

I like this source https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2020/hospital-capacity-covid19-pandemic or https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-14day-change.html But they are way out of date.

"somehow" it got hard to get reliable data around July. I will leave that up to guessing.

---

He posted it for one data point. The hospitalizations:

Quote:

---

Today, states reported that 61,964 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, more than at any other time in the pandemic.

---

That was reported on many sources and it is completely accurate, and it should be a big scary headline. Case numbers are all over the place because we didn't have the capability to test in the Spring that we have now. You cannot make that statement about hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are a good indicator of how With hospitalizations, deaths will follow. They already are.

Europe has skyrocketed before us. France for instance was at 12 deaths a day in mid August. They are now at 550. For a country with 20% of our population. UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium are seeing similar spikes.

In September we were reporting about 30K cases a day. We are now at 135K cases a day. That is not due to testing. We are doing about the same number of tests as we were in September. Our hopitalizations are at an all time high and double what they were in September. Our deaths are up 50% in a week.

This is the third spike and through each spike we go through this same cycle of head in the sand behavior.

We are effed this winter. The only question is how effed we are going to be. This is pretty easy to see in the data.

HighlandDutch said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

Thank you. I think that article answers my question. Nationwide total hospitalizations are apparently at peak levels as the virus spikes across a broader footprint, but those gross numbers are not (yet) creating widespread hospital capacity issues.

This all seems to correlate to the idea there would be a second wave about this time. The trends are concerning, but hopefully the curve stays bent to the point that we don't overwhelm hospital capacity.

What the hell happens if we finish the year 0-0?

So we win the Pac-12 and go to the Rose Bowl?

BearGoggles said:

---

HighlandDutch said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

Thank you. I think that article answers my question. Nationwide total hospitalizations are apparently at peak levels as the virus spikes across a broader footprint, but those gross numbers are not (yet) creating widespread hospital capacity issues.

This all seems to correlate to the idea there would be a second wave about this time. The trends are concerning, but hopefully the curve stays bent to the point that we don't overwhelm hospital capacity.

---

In 3 days, hospitalizations have gone up another 5000 to 67,000.

It is obviously a huge concern if we reach capacity, but even if we don't, deaths follow hospitalizations.

OaktownBear said:

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LunchTime said:

---

HighlandDutch said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

This article is exactly the problem with reporting. Technically correct, a giant clickbait scary headline, but with very little information. At least it shows region and some states data.

I like this source https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2020/hospital-capacity-covid19-pandemic or https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-14day-change.html But they are way out of date.

"somehow" it got hard to get reliable data around July. I will leave that up to guessing.

---

He posted it for one data point. The hospitalizations:

Quote:

---

Today, states reported that 61,964 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, more than at any other time in the pandemic.

---

That was reported on many sources and it is completely accurate, and it should be a big scary headline. Case numbers are all over the place because we didn't have the capability to test in the Spring that we have now. You cannot make that statement about hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are a good indicator of how With hospitalizations, deaths will follow. They already are.

Europe has skyrocketed before us. France for instance was at 12 deaths a day in mid August. They are now at 550. For a country with 20% of our population. UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium are seeing similar spikes.

In September we were reporting about 30K cases a day. We are now at 135K cases a day. That is not due to testing. We are doing about the same number of tests as we were in September. Our hopitalizations are at an all time high and double what they were in September. Our deaths are up 50% in a week.

This is the third spike and through each spike we go through this same cycle of head in the sand behavior.

We are effed this winter. The only question is how effed we are going to be. This is pretty easy to see in the data.

---

Can you share your data?

EDIT to say, with a different audience (including some in this thread, ad especially in OT), I would be saying it is much worse than claimed. But I am talking you you :-/

I'll take the time to respond because it seems you are interested in the data, and open to new information, but it isnt easy to pull together screenshots and sources, so all I ask is that you have you a real look. I'm arguing the ski isn't falling, yet. I am not arguing we aren't in a bad spot. I am certainly aware that dumping graphs is not as fun as making statements, so I wont get the stars, but it is important to be aware of what the data actually is, especially when comparing regions.

1. Hospitalization matters when hospitals run out of capacity to treat. I think we agree on that. If we can treat people, they die less.
2. Hospitalizations matter because a steady number of people who enter the hospital enter the ICU. A pretty stead percentage of those people die. I think we can agree on that.

While hospitalizations are UP, they are not up significantly, not the growth that you would see with a runaway infection, like we saw in March and April. Hospitalizations ARE growing like that in Europe, they are not here. They have been relatively steady through the summer, with highs and lows, like a wave.

To point #2, the outcome of hospitalizations is death. Always. But despite the growing infections, we dont see the same correlation with death that you would see in the European countries you mention.

This is what I see since October 1st for the US


7 Day Moving Average for the US.


Last week the MA was 911 deaths per day. It peaked a couple days ago at 1180 (1139, Nov12th, but peak is maybe what you saw?) 30% is not nothing, that's for sure. But its not up 50% in a week. It IS up about 65% in the last two months. Growth, bu certainly not showing the exponential growth we would watch for. We have also seen this kind of shift before. We saw it in June, again in July, and again in September. It isnt new. The US tends to float between 1100 and 700. I am not seeing the accelerated growth that you seem to be seeing. If you provided your data maybe we could find what I am missing? Not an article summarizing what they think will get readers, the actual data.


I do ABSOLUTELY see the accelerated growth you see in various European countries.
Belgium

UK

Spain

Italy



They are not seeing similar spikes to the US, though. They all look very similar, while the US looks stable in comparison (note, though, that the US is "stable" at well above the current out of control numbers those European countries are hitting... FWIW)


A different way to look at it is, watching for large changes in growth:

Again, these are the nations in the EU you point to (they all show the deep drop of recovery, followed by a very sharp incline showing a significant resurgence of growth rate):


They look MUCH different than the US does (The US floats in a channel, without (yet) seeing significant change in rates.


I think if you argue we are starting out from a much worse spot, that would carry significant weight, but the argument that we are seeing spikes similar to Europe is not accurate, at least from the data I use.


Anyway, here are my sources that I use. Feel free to reach out and I can share how I compile them. I dont mind sharing a link to my Tableau, or the dataset, if you want it. It has a lot of interesting data, such as
* Female vs Male leadership (Female lead countries have better outcomes):


* And Democracy Index


Anyway, sources:
By US County
By US State
Global Cases
Global Deaths
Global Recovered
Democracy Index
Female Leadership

LunchTime said:

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OaktownBear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

HighlandDutch said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

This article is exactly the problem with reporting. Technically correct, a giant clickbait scary headline, but with very little information. At least it shows region and some states data.

I like this source https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2020/hospital-capacity-covid19-pandemic or https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-14day-change.html But they are way out of date.

"somehow" it got hard to get reliable data around July. I will leave that up to guessing.

---

He posted it for one data point. The hospitalizations:

Quote:

---

Today, states reported that 61,964 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, more than at any other time in the pandemic.

---

That was reported on many sources and it is completely accurate, and it should be a big scary headline. Case numbers are all over the place because we didn't have the capability to test in the Spring that we have now. You cannot make that statement about hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are a good indicator of how With hospitalizations, deaths will follow. They already are.

Europe has skyrocketed before us. France for instance was at 12 deaths a day in mid August. They are now at 550. For a country with 20% of our population. UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium are seeing similar spikes.

In September we were reporting about 30K cases a day. We are now at 135K cases a day. That is not due to testing. We are doing about the same number of tests as we were in September. Our hopitalizations are at an all time high and double what they were in September. Our deaths are up 50% in a week.

This is the third spike and through each spike we go through this same cycle of head in the sand behavior.

We are effed this winter. The only question is how effed we are going to be. This is pretty easy to see in the data.

---

Can you share your data?

EDIT to say, with a different audience (including some in this thread, ad especially in OT), I would be saying it is much worse than claimed. But I am talking you you :-/

I'll take the time to respond because it seems you are interested in the data, and open to new information, but it isnt easy to pull together screenshots and sources, so all I ask is that you have you a real look. I'm arguing the ski isn't falling, yet. I am not arguing we aren't in a bad spot. I am certainly aware that dumping graphs is not as fun as making statements, so I wont get the stars, but it is important to be aware of what the data actually is, especially when comparing regions.

1. Hospitalization matters when hospitals run out of capacity to treat. I think we agree on that. If we can treat people, they die less.
2. Hospitalizations matter because a steady number of people who enter the hospital enter the ICU. A pretty stead percentage of those people die. I think we can agree on that.

While hospitalizations are UP, they are not up significantly, not the growth that you would see with a runaway infection, like we saw in March and April. Hospitalizations ARE growing like that in Europe, they are not here. They have been relatively steady through the summer, with highs and lows, like a wave.

To point #2, the outcome of hospitalizations is death. Always. But despite the growing infections, we dont see the same correlation with death that you would see in the European countries you mention.

This is what I see since October 1st for the US


7 Day Moving Average for the US.


Last week the MA was 911 deaths per day. It peaked a couple days ago at 1180 (1139, Nov12th, but peak is maybe what you saw?) 30% is not nothing, that's for sure. But its not up 50% in a week. It IS up about 65% in the last two months. Growth, bu certainly not showing the exponential growth we would watch for. We have also seen this kind of shift before. We saw it in June, again in July, and again in September. It isnt new. The US tends to float between 1100 and 700. I am not seeing the accelerated growth that you seem to be seeing. If you provided your data maybe we could find what I am missing? Not an article summarizing what they think will get readers, the actual data.


I do ABSOLUTELY see the accelerated growth you see in various European countries.
Belgium

UK

Spain

Italy



They are not seeing similar spikes to the US, though. They all look very similar, while the US looks stable in comparison (note, though, that the US is "stable" at well above the current out of control numbers those European countries are hitting... FWIW)


A different way to look at it is, watching for large changes in growth:

Again, these are the nations in the EU you point to (they all show the deep drop of recovery, followed by a very sharp incline showing a significant resurgence of growth rate):


They look MUCH different than the US does (The US floats in a channel, without (yet) seeing significant change in rates.


I think if you argue we are starting out from a much worse spot, that would carry significant weight, but the argument that we are seeing spikes similar to Europe is not accurate, at least from the data I use.


Anyway, here are my sources that I use. Feel free to reach out and I can share how I compile them. I dont mind sharing a link to my Tableau, or the dataset, if you want it. It has a lot of interesting data, such as
* Female vs Male leadership (Female lead countries have better outcomes):


* And Democracy Index


Anyway, sources:
By US County
By US State
Global Cases
Global Deaths
Global Recovered
Democracy Index
Female Leadership

---

Lunch:

I do not have the time right now to throw charts and graphs at you. I appreciate the data you have brought to the table. However, this is a repeated pattern. Europe goes up and we say that won't/might not happen here. Our case rates go up and there are reasons given why that won't lead to hospitalizations and deaths. Hospitalizations go up and reasons are given why it won't lead to deaths. Then deaths go up.

Agree with you about what is important about hospitalizations. If we exceed capacity it will be far worse. We are getting close in a lot of places. Utah says they are out of ICU beds. You are correct that it isn't as bad (yet) with hospitalizations spread out vs. concentrated in NY area, but I'm not sure how you don't look at the curve in the article and see that as rapidly rising. We've gone up another 6500 in the 4 days since we passed the prior peak (about 10%).

Cases have been squishy because of our inability to test early on, but they have been a much more stable indicator as the months have worn on.

Europe had a trough. We didn't. Their spike looks more extreme because of the trough. That doesn't mean we are better. Of course we are not going to see curve like theirs after the summer. Of course we are not going to see daily deaths go up almost 50 times like they have in France because France was starting at a baseline of 12 and we were starting from a baseline of 800. No, we are not going to see 40K daily deaths. 2000 or more is pretty possible. Consistently 1500 is almost certain.

As happened in the spring, Europe saw an increase in cases first. Cases started going up in earnest in mid August. Deaths started going up in earnest at the end of September. They are skyrocketing now.

The US saw its cases increase in earnest at the end of September. If we followed Europe's curve as we did in the Spring. We would beginning to see increases in deaths in the last week. That is exactly what we are seeing. Yes, it is true we don't know if we will top out now. But daily case numbers going up now 5 times and not explained by increased testing says otherwise. Hospitalizations, and that you can look at the chart in the article to see the rapid rise, have doubled in a month.

In the fall, our cases have followed Europe by 4-6 weeks. Our hospitalizations have followed Eurpoe 4-6 weeks. And our deaths are now at the same upturn that Europe was at 4-6 weeks ago. We are at the place where they began their upward trend.

You are relying a lot on more complicated graphs with more complicated variables. What I would ask is why you think an increase in cases from 35K to 170K with not nearly that increase in testing is not going to lead to significantly more deaths than we had a couple months ago. Why a doubling in hospitalizations is not going to lead to significantly more deaths. Why a skyrocketing positivity rate over the past few weeks is not going to lead to significantly more deaths. Those are basic stats that have correlated to more deaths.

fwiw, w/o the least evidence to share, lets not assume hospitals are available to everyone, nor even half american families. rather of necessity folks'll wait for death at home (if any). signed, grew up poor

^ general reply, not just to OTB

oops ps: turns out this is Football bbs, not OT?

OaktownBear said:

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LunchTime said:

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OaktownBear said:

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LunchTime said:

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HighlandDutch said:

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BearGoggles said:

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OaktownBear said:

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ducky23 said:

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B.A. Bearacus said:

---

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Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

This article is exactly the problem with reporting. Technically correct, a giant clickbait scary headline, but with very little information. At least it shows region and some states data.

I like this source https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2020/hospital-capacity-covid19-pandemic or https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-14day-change.html But they are way out of date.

"somehow" it got hard to get reliable data around July. I will leave that up to guessing.

---

He posted it for one data point. The hospitalizations:

Quote:

---

Today, states reported that 61,964 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, more than at any other time in the pandemic.

---

That was reported on many sources and it is completely accurate, and it should be a big scary headline. Case numbers are all over the place because we didn't have the capability to test in the Spring that we have now. You cannot make that statement about hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are a good indicator of how With hospitalizations, deaths will follow. They already are.

Europe has skyrocketed before us. France for instance was at 12 deaths a day in mid August. They are now at 550. For a country with 20% of our population. UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium are seeing similar spikes.

In September we were reporting about 30K cases a day. We are now at 135K cases a day. That is not due to testing. We are doing about the same number of tests as we were in September. Our hopitalizations are at an all time high and double what they were in September. Our deaths are up 50% in a week.

This is the third spike and through each spike we go through this same cycle of head in the sand behavior.

We are effed this winter. The only question is how effed we are going to be. This is pretty easy to see in the data.

---

Can you share your data?

EDIT to say, with a different audience (including some in this thread, ad especially in OT), I would be saying it is much worse than claimed. But I am talking you you :-/

I'll take the time to respond because it seems you are interested in the data, and open to new information, but it isnt easy to pull together screenshots and sources, so all I ask is that you have you a real look. I'm arguing the ski isn't falling, yet. I am not arguing we aren't in a bad spot. I am certainly aware that dumping graphs is not as fun as making statements, so I wont get the stars, but it is important to be aware of what the data actually is, especially when comparing regions.

1. Hospitalization matters when hospitals run out of capacity to treat. I think we agree on that. If we can treat people, they die less.
2. Hospitalizations matter because a steady number of people who enter the hospital enter the ICU. A pretty stead percentage of those people die. I think we can agree on that.

While hospitalizations are UP, they are not up significantly, not the growth that you would see with a runaway infection, like we saw in March and April. Hospitalizations ARE growing like that in Europe, they are not here. They have been relatively steady through the summer, with highs and lows, like a wave.

To point #2, the outcome of hospitalizations is death. Always. But despite the growing infections, we dont see the same correlation with death that you would see in the European countries you mention.

This is what I see since October 1st for the US


7 Day Moving Average for the US.


Last week the MA was 911 deaths per day. It peaked a couple days ago at 1180 (1139, Nov12th, but peak is maybe what you saw?) 30% is not nothing, that's for sure. But its not up 50% in a week. It IS up about 65% in the last two months. Growth, bu certainly not showing the exponential growth we would watch for. We have also seen this kind of shift before. We saw it in June, again in July, and again in September. It isnt new. The US tends to float between 1100 and 700. I am not seeing the accelerated growth that you seem to be seeing. If you provided your data maybe we could find what I am missing? Not an article summarizing what they think will get readers, the actual data.


I do ABSOLUTELY see the accelerated growth you see in various European countries.
Belgium

UK

Spain

Italy



They are not seeing similar spikes to the US, though. They all look very similar, while the US looks stable in comparison (note, though, that the US is "stable" at well above the current out of control numbers those European countries are hitting... FWIW)


A different way to look at it is, watching for large changes in growth:

Again, these are the nations in the EU you point to (they all show the deep drop of recovery, followed by a very sharp incline showing a significant resurgence of growth rate):


They look MUCH different than the US does (The US floats in a channel, without (yet) seeing significant change in rates.


I think if you argue we are starting out from a much worse spot, that would carry significant weight, but the argument that we are seeing spikes similar to Europe is not accurate, at least from the data I use.


Anyway, here are my sources that I use. Feel free to reach out and I can share how I compile them. I dont mind sharing a link to my Tableau, or the dataset, if you want it. It has a lot of interesting data, such as
* Female vs Male leadership (Female lead countries have better outcomes):


* And Democracy Index


Anyway, sources:
By US County
By US State
Global Cases
Global Deaths
Global Recovered
Democracy Index
Female Leadership

---

Lunch:

I do not have the time right now to throw charts and graphs at you. I appreciate the data you have brought to the table. However, this is a repeated pattern. Europe goes up and we say that won't/might not happen here. Our case rates go up and there are reasons given why that won't lead to hospitalizations and deaths. Hospitalizations go up and reasons are given why it won't lead to deaths. Then deaths go up.

Agree with you about what is important about hospitalizations. If we exceed capacity it will be far worse. We are getting close in a lot of places. Utah says they are out of ICU beds. You are correct that it isn't as bad (yet) with hospitalizations spread out vs. concentrated in NY area, but I'm not sure how you don't look at the curve in the article and see that as rapidly rising. We've gone up another 6500 in the 4 days since we passed the prior peak (about 10%).

Cases have been squishy because of our inability to test early on, but they have been a much more stable indicator as the months have worn on.

Europe had a trough. We didn't. Their spike looks more extreme because of the trough. That doesn't mean we are better. Of course we are not going to see curve like theirs after the summer. Of course we are not going to see daily deaths go up almost 50 times like they have in France because France was starting at a baseline of 12 and we were starting from a baseline of 800. No, we are not going to see 40K daily deaths. 2000 or more is pretty possible. Consistently 1500 is almost certain.

As happened in the spring, Europe saw an increase in cases first. Cases started going up in earnest in mid August. Deaths started going up in earnest at the end of September. They are skyrocketing now.

The US saw its cases increase in earnest at the end of September. If we followed Europe's curve as we did in the Spring. We would beginning to see increases in deaths in the last week. That is exactly what we are seeing. Yes, it is true we don't know if we will top out now. But daily case numbers going up now 5 times and not explained by increased testing says otherwise. Hospitalizations, and that you can look at the chart in the article to see the rapid rise, have doubled in a month.

In the fall, our cases have followed Europe by 4-6 weeks. Our hospitalizations have followed Eurpoe 4-6 weeks. And our deaths are now at the same upturn that Europe was at 4-6 weeks ago. We are at the place where they began their upward trend.

You are relying a lot on more complicated graphs with more complicated variables. What I would ask is why you think an increase in cases from 35K to 170K with not nearly that increase in testing is not going to lead to significantly more deaths than we had a couple months ago. Why a doubling in hospitalizations is not going to lead to significantly more deaths. Why a skyrocketing positivity rate over the past few weeks is not going to lead to significantly more deaths. Those are basic stats that have correlated to more deaths.

---

Yes, I am relying on data.

The graphs are extremely simple, I am at a loss to how you think they are complicated.

LunchTime said:

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OaktownBear said:

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LunchTime said:

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OaktownBear said:

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LunchTime said:

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HighlandDutch said:

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BearGoggles said:

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OaktownBear said:

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ducky23 said:

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B.A. Bearacus said:

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Oh great. OSU is now having a covid outbreak too? Cal won't even be able to play next week either.

---

I think you guys may need to come to grips with the fact that there is a possibility that the college football season is coming to a close. Covid is skyrocketing. We are already at more hospitalizations than we had last spring and the deaths are up 50% in a week. I agree with WIAF that you play whatever you can, but when half the conference has had issues within like a week, how long do you think this is going to keep going?

---

Not saying you're wrong, but can you please provide a cite and additional details for the idea hospitalizations are above spring levels. Is that nationwide or CA or a different area/metric?

Covid is clearly on the rise. But the reason I ask is that I have been told that cases are up but hospitalizations and deaths are still well below spring peak (at least for now). I can't find a clear link either way and, obviously, it depends on what areas you're looking at (e.g., NY v. North Dakota).

---

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/pandemic-coronavirus-hospitalizations-new-record/617061/

---

This article is exactly the problem with reporting. Technically correct, a giant clickbait scary headline, but with very little information. At least it shows region and some states data.

I like this source https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2020/hospital-capacity-covid19-pandemic or https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-14day-change.html But they are way out of date.

"somehow" it got hard to get reliable data around July. I will leave that up to guessing.

---

He posted it for one data point. The hospitalizations:

Quote:

---

Today, states reported that 61,964 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, more than at any other time in the pandemic.

---

That was reported on many sources and it is completely accurate, and it should be a big scary headline. Case numbers are all over the place because we didn't have the capability to test in the Spring that we have now. You cannot make that statement about hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are a good indicator of how With hospitalizations, deaths will follow. They already are.

Europe has skyrocketed before us. France for instance was at 12 deaths a day in mid August. They are now at 550. For a country with 20% of our population. UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium are seeing similar spikes.

In September we were reporting about 30K cases a day. We are now at 135K cases a day. That is not due to testing. We are doing about the same number of tests as we were in September. Our hopitalizations are at an all time high and double what they were in September. Our deaths are up 50% in a week.

This is the third spike and through each spike we go through this same cycle of head in the sand behavior.

We are effed this winter. The only question is how effed we are going to be. This is pretty easy to see in the data.

---

Can you share your data?

EDIT to say, with a different audience (including some in this thread, ad especially in OT), I would be saying it is much worse than claimed. But I am talking you you :-/

I'll take the time to respond because it seems you are interested in the data, and open to new information, but it isnt easy to pull together screenshots and sources, so all I ask is that you have you a real look. I'm arguing the ski isn't falling, yet. I am not arguing we aren't in a bad spot. I am certainly aware that dumping graphs is not as fun as making statements, so I wont get the stars, but it is important to be aware of what the data actually is, especially when comparing regions.

1. Hospitalization matters when hospitals run out of capacity to treat. I think we agree on that. If we can treat people, they die less.
2. Hospitalizations matter because a steady number of people who enter the hospital enter the ICU. A pretty stead percentage of those people die. I think we can agree on that.

While hospitalizations are UP, they are not up significantly, not the growth that you would see with a runaway infection, like we saw in March and April. Hospitalizations ARE growing like that in Europe, they are not here. They have been relatively steady through the summer, with highs and lows, like a wave.

To point #2, the outcome of hospitalizations is death. Always. But despite the growing infections, we dont see the same correlation with death that you would see in the European countries you mention.

This is what I see since October 1st for the US


7 Day Moving Average for the US.


Last week the MA was 911 deaths per day. It peaked a couple days ago at 1180 (1139, Nov12th, but peak is maybe what you saw?) 30% is not nothing, that's for sure. But its not up 50% in a week. It IS up about 65% in the last two months. Growth, bu certainly not showing the exponential growth we would watch for. We have also seen this kind of shift before. We saw it in June, again in July, and again in September. It isnt new. The US tends to float between 1100 and 700. I am not seeing the accelerated growth that you seem to be seeing. If you provided your data maybe we could find what I am missing? Not an article summarizing what they think will get readers, the actual data.


I do ABSOLUTELY see the accelerated growth you see in various European countries.
Belgium

UK

Spain

Italy



They are not seeing similar spikes to the US, though. They all look very similar, while the US looks stable in comparison (note, though, that the US is "stable" at well above the current out of control numbers those European countries are hitting... FWIW)


A different way to look at it is, watching for large changes in growth:

Again, these are the nations in the EU you point to (they all show the deep drop of recovery, followed by a very sharp incline showing a significant resurgence of growth rate):


They look MUCH different than the US does (The US floats in a channel, without (yet) seeing significant change in rates.


I think if you argue we are starting out from a much worse spot, that would carry significant weight, but the argument that we are seeing spikes similar to Europe is not accurate, at least from the data I use.


Anyway, here are my sources that I use. Feel free to reach out and I can share how I compile them. I dont mind sharing a link to my Tableau, or the dataset, if you want it. It has a lot of interesting data, such as
* Female vs Male leadership (Female lead countries have better outcomes):


* And Democracy Index


Anyway, sources:
By US County
By US State
Global Cases
Global Deaths
Global Recovered
Democracy Index
Female Leadership

---

Lunch:

I do not have the time right now to throw charts and graphs at you. I appreciate the data you have brought to the table. However, this is a repeated pattern. Europe goes up and we say that won't/might not happen here. Our case rates go up and there are reasons given why that won't lead to hospitalizations and deaths. Hospitalizations go up and reasons are given why it won't lead to deaths. Then deaths go up.

Agree with you about what is important about hospitalizations. If we exceed capacity it will be far worse. We are getting close in a lot of places. Utah says they are out of ICU beds. You are correct that it isn't as bad (yet) with hospitalizations spread out vs. concentrated in NY area, but I'm not sure how you don't look at the curve in the article and see that as rapidly rising. We've gone up another 6500 in the 4 days since we passed the prior peak (about 10%).

Cases have been squishy because of our inability to test early on, but they have been a much more stable indicator as the months have worn on.

Europe had a trough. We didn't. Their spike looks more extreme because of the trough. That doesn't mean we are better. Of course we are not going to see curve like theirs after the summer. Of course we are not going to see daily deaths go up almost 50 times like they have in France because France was starting at a baseline of 12 and we were starting from a baseline of 800. No, we are not going to see 40K daily deaths. 2000 or more is pretty possible. Consistently 1500 is almost certain.

As happened in the spring, Europe saw an increase in cases first. Cases started going up in earnest in mid August. Deaths started going up in earnest at the end of September. They are skyrocketing now.

The US saw its cases increase in earnest at the end of September. If we followed Europe's curve as we did in the Spring. We would beginning to see increases in deaths in the last week. That is exactly what we are seeing. Yes, it is true we don't know if we will top out now. But daily case numbers going up now 5 times and not explained by increased testing says otherwise. Hospitalizations, and that you can look at the chart in the article to see the rapid rise, have doubled in a month.

In the fall, our cases have followed Europe by 4-6 weeks. Our hospitalizations have followed Eurpoe 4-6 weeks. And our deaths are now at the same upturn that Europe was at 4-6 weeks ago. We are at the place where they began their upward trend.

You are relying a lot on more complicated graphs with more complicated variables. What I would ask is why you think an increase in cases from 35K to 170K with not nearly that increase in testing is not going to lead to significantly more deaths than we had a couple months ago. Why a doubling in hospitalizations is not going to lead to significantly more deaths. Why a skyrocketing positivity rate over the past few weeks is not going to lead to significantly more deaths. Those are basic stats that have correlated to more deaths.

---

Yes, I am relying on data.

The graphs are extremely simple, I am at a loss to how you think they are complicated.

---

You misunderstand. I said more complicated. Not complicated. You are introducing additional variables that only cloud the analysis. Cases lead to hospitalizations lead to deaths. Yes, they don't always absolutely correlate but they correlate quite a bit. There is zero reason to believe that cases going up by a factor of 5 over what was a pretty stable trend line and hospitalizations going up double are going to result in anything but a significant surge in deaths. I'd like to hear what you think is going to change that beyond pointing to graphs and drawing conclusions that they do not draw. We will not spike like Europe because we didn't trough. We haven't spike in deaths yet because our spike in cases came 4-6 weeks after. A surge in daily deaths as health experts are predicting is extremely predictable.

You guys need to wait for Cal88 to weigh in. He said people would stop dying in the US just like they did in Europe this summer and his historical accuracy speaks for itself. It would be irresponsible for anyone to draw conclusions before Cal88 has shown us the way by cherry picking data.