SFCityBear said:

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BeachedBear said:

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I like him a lot. I think watching his development through this season and into next is a key metric for this staff. Joel has all the tools but he needs to improve his shooting and related confidence? to be a true P12 level PG. His D is pretty much there and his assists/turnovers seems to be as much on his teammates as him - so I'm not too concerned in that facet.

In a perfect world, he would really focus on his 3pg and FT% before next season. I really like having a lock down perimeter defender who is also a perimeter threat.

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I agree. The only thing I would add that needs improving, would be on-court decisions as to when to drive, and when not to drive. We have all used the term, "shot selection", when referring to shooters deciding when they should take a shot. I'll coin a new one for Brown, and everyone, really, which is "drive selection". Deciding when to penetrate. Brown has tremendous speed, and often thinks he can blow by a defender, and he is often right about that. But often he does not see and gauge the size, quickness, and reaction time of other defenders near the basket. He does not always seem to see or know how the defense might collapse on him and cause a steal, a turnover, a tied-up ball, a stuffed shot, a pass that is intercepted or batted loose. Many of his drives end up in a wasted possession, precisely because of driving when he should maybe choose a better option, and wait for a more suitable moment to drive.

At Cal, you never saw Jason Kidd make a foray into the lane and not have an idea of his options before going in to that hostile territory, and he very seldom turned the ball over near the basket. He just seemed to sense what everyone was going to do, and what his best options were, and he usually picked one that would result in a basket.

Jason Kidd had an edge over Brown, in that he had experienced centers and forwards on his Cal teams who knew where to go to get open or set screens for Jason, and were presenting lots of problems themselves for the defenders who might be thinking of leaving them alone and helping out to defend Jason. Joel Brown needs a point guard's vision, able to see the whole floor, the other 9 players out there, and size up the possibilities. I am one who thinks great point guards are born, not made, but with experience and coaching, I think Brown can become a good point guard. He has tools, competitiveness, aggressiveness, and he is very young. Kidd was a pass-first point guard, and so it was natural for him to always look at the whole floor, to see who might get open. Brown is a defense first point guard, and on offense, he is more of a shoot-first point guard, and needs to train himself to look more for openings to pass. And Fox needs to show his bigs how to get open near the basket more often, and when to get out of the way, draw their defenders away from Brown's lane to the basket, and how to set picks for Brown. Tall order, but many of Cal's players are good enough athletes to learn this.

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BeachedBear said:

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SFCityBear said:

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BeachedBear said:

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I like him a lot. I think watching his development through this season and into next is a key metric for this staff. Joel has all the tools but he needs to improve his shooting and related confidence? to be a true P12 level PG. His D is pretty much there and his assists/turnovers seems to be as much on his teammates as him - so I'm not too concerned in that facet.

In a perfect world, he would really focus on his 3pg and FT% before next season. I really like having a lock down perimeter defender who is also a perimeter threat.

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I agree. The only thing I would add that needs improving, would be on-court decisions as to when to drive, and when not to drive. We have all used the term, "shot selection", when referring to shooters deciding when they should take a shot. I'll coin a new one for Brown, and everyone, really, which is "drive selection". Deciding when to penetrate. Brown has tremendous speed, and often thinks he can blow by a defender, and he is often right about that. But often he does not see and gauge the size, quickness, and reaction time of other defenders near the basket. He does not always seem to see or know how the defense might collapse on him and cause a steal, a turnover, a tied-up ball, a stuffed shot, a pass that is intercepted or batted loose. Many of his drives end up in a wasted possession, precisely because of driving when he should maybe choose a better option, and wait for a more suitable moment to drive.

At Cal, you never saw Jason Kidd make a foray into the lane and not have an idea of his options before going in to that hostile territory, and he very seldom turned the ball over near the basket. He just seemed to sense what everyone was going to do, and what his best options were, and he usually picked one that would result in a basket.

Jason Kidd had an edge over Brown, in that he had experienced centers and forwards on his Cal teams who knew where to go to get open or set screens for Jason, and were presenting lots of problems themselves for the defenders who might be thinking of leaving them alone and helping out to defend Jason. Joel Brown needs a point guard's vision, able to see the whole floor, the other 9 players out there, and size up the possibilities. I am one who thinks great point guards are born, not made, but with experience and coaching, I think Brown can become a good point guard. He has tools, competitiveness, aggressiveness, and he is very young. Kidd was a pass-first point guard, and so it was natural for him to always look at the whole floor, to see who might get open. Brown is a defense first point guard, and on offense, he is more of a shoot-first point guard, and needs to train himself to look more for openings to pass. And Fox needs to show his bigs how to get open near the basket more often, and when to get out of the way, draw their defenders away from Brown's lane to the basket, and how to set picks for Brown. Tall order, but many of Cal's players are good enough athletes to learn this.

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Yeah - that whole court vision (or field vision) is a mystical combination of nature & nurture. I think Joel has it - but not at the J Kidd level. Jorge was probably at Joel level as a Freshman, but improved a lot during his 4 years at Cal. Ubaka was another who seemed to improve his court vision in college.

But joel can be a good P12 PG. I also like your point about his speed combined with drive selection. Maybe he just needs to slow down a bit and get more reps with his team mates.

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bearister said:

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" Jason Kidd had an edge over Brown, in that he had experienced centers and forwards on his Cal teams who knew where to go to get open or set screens for Jason..."

That and the small detail that J Kidd is one of the best players that ever laced them up.

Number of triple doubles:

Oscar Robertson 181
Russell Westbrook 146
Magic Johnson 138
Jason Kidd 107
LeBron James 94
Wilt Chamberlain 78
Larry Bird 59
James Harden 46
Fat Lever 43
Nikola Jokic 41

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BeachedBear said:

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I like him a lot. I think watching his development through this season and into next is a key metric for this staff. Joel has all the tools but he needs to improve his shooting and related confidence?

In a perfect world, he would really focus on his 3pg and FT% before next season. I really like having a lock down perimeter defender who is also a perimeter threat.

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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I like him a lot. I think watching his development through this season and into next is a key metric for this staff. Joel has all the tools but he needs to improve his shooting and related confidence?

In a perfect world, he would really focus on his 3pg and FT% before next season. I really like having a lock down perimeter defender who is also a perimeter threat.

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He is actually shooting .353 from 3 this year, which is huge, it means teams can't sag off him like last year. He is still under .500 on FTs which is hard to fathom.

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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I like him a lot. I think watching his development through this season and into next is a key metric for this staff. Joel has all the tools but he needs to improve his shooting and related confidence?

In a perfect world, he would really focus on his 3pg and FT% before next season. I really like having a lock down perimeter defender who is also a perimeter threat.

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He is actually shooting .353 from 3 this year, which is huge, it means teams can't sag off him like last year. He is still under .500 on FTs which is hard to fathom.

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You are right that Brown has improved his shooting percentage by a huge amount this year, but his sample size is very small. He has only made 6 threes in 15 games. On a per 40 minute basis he shoots only 1.7 attempts, the lowest number of attempts on the Cal team among the players who do attempt threes. For comparison, per 40 minutes:

Foreman 9.9
Betley 7.4
Bradley 6.7
Hyder 6.0
Celestine 5.4
Anticevich 4.0
Kuany 2.9
Klonaras 2.5
Bowser 2.0
Brown 1.7

Brown only averages 27 minutes per game, so he he is only really taking one three point attempt per game. I doubt that teams are guarding him any closer than last season, when he also averaged only 1.7 attempts per 40 minutes. Let's watch more closely, to see if you are right. I think teams concentrate on stopping the volume shooters who shoot good percentages. If teams are sagging off any Cal starter other than Brown, I'd guess it might be Bradley, whose percentage has dropped to a very poor (for him) 0.318 from 0.384 last season. He is in a serious slump, and teams won't need to guard him tightly, until he starts making him.

I think if Fox had confidence in Brown, he'd be telling him to shoot more threes. Maybe he has told him, but maybe Brown doesn't feel comfortable doing it just yet.

Free throws: Brown does not have a good-looking stroke, nothing that looks very repeatable. Free throws are mental, more than anything. If his problem is mental, with no fans in the house, behind the basket, in his face, then he could shoot them worse next season when the crowds come back to the arenas. Hopefully he fixes this soon.

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helltopay1 said:

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herrerrias was a very good coach, but he was not beloved by his players. He also was not a very good recruiter. He and Pete Newell had a falling out because newell advised Herrerrias that he was going to fire him if he did not voluntarily leave the team. I don't know if they ever connected as friends again.

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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Brown's percentage is very good, but his sample size is so small that his threes are almost irrelevant in terms of affecting the results of the team as a whole. He has only 22 attempts, as you wrote, but on a per 40 minute basis, no one in the usual rotation shoots fewer three point attempts than Brown, except Kelly with 3 total attempts this season and Lars with none. I also think if Brown was really a 45% shooter that Fox could trust, Fox would be insisting he shoot a lot more attempts than one per game, which is what Brown has been shooting this season. A walkon taking up minutes in a blowout can put up one three in a game. Nick Kerr put up about one attempt per game at Cal. He played a total of 11 minutes over 7 games in 2016, put up 6 three point attempts and made 3, shooting .500 in mostly garbage time. I don't remember if any of his threes affected a game, but most did not.

Brown needs to improve his free throw shooting, and he needs to improve his ability to get to the line. He is too easy to defend in the paint, and until he learns to finish better or make an assist when he penetrates, teams won't foul him enough to make those drives more profitable. I'm pleased with his improvement this year, but I would caution to make too much out of his percentage on threes. If he could, say, double or triple his attempts per game, and shoot them at the same percentage, then we would start to have something. That depends on Fox incorporating more three point shots for him in the offense, and Brown being willing to shoot more of them.

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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Brown's percentage is very good, but his sample size is so small that his threes are almost irrelevant in terms of affecting the results of the team as a whole. He has only 22 attempts, as you wrote, but on a per 40 minute basis, no one in the usual rotation shoots fewer three point attempts than Brown, except Kelly with 3 total attempts this season and Lars with none. I also think if Brown was really a 45% shooter that Fox could trust, Fox would be insisting he shoot a lot more attempts than one per game, which is what Brown has been shooting this season. A walkon taking up minutes in a blowout can put up one three in a game. Nick Kerr put up about one attempt per game at Cal. He played a total of 11 minutes over 7 games in 2016, put up 6 three point attempts and made 3, shooting .500 in mostly garbage time. I don't remember if any of his threes affected a game, but most did not.

Brown needs to improve his free throw shooting, and he needs to improve his ability to get to the line. He is too easy to defend in the paint, and until he learns to finish better or make an assist when he penetrates, teams won't foul him enough to make those drives more profitable. I'm pleased with his improvement this year, but I would caution to make too much out of his percentage on threes. If he could, say, double or triple his attempts per game, and shoot them at the same percentage, then we would start to have something. That depends on Fox incorporating more three point shots for him in the offense, and Brown being willing to shoot more of them.

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calumnus said:

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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Brown's percentage is very good, but his sample size is so small that his threes are almost irrelevant in terms of affecting the results of the team as a whole. He has only 22 attempts, as you wrote, but on a per 40 minute basis, no one in the usual rotation shoots fewer three point attempts than Brown, except Kelly with 3 total attempts this season and Lars with none. I also think if Brown was really a 45% shooter that Fox could trust, Fox would be insisting he shoot a lot more attempts than one per game, which is what Brown has been shooting this season. A walkon taking up minutes in a blowout can put up one three in a game. Nick Kerr put up about one attempt per game at Cal. He played a total of 11 minutes over 7 games in 2016, put up 6 three point attempts and made 3, shooting .500 in mostly garbage time. I don't remember if any of his threes affected a game, but most did not.

Brown needs to improve his free throw shooting, and he needs to improve his ability to get to the line. He is too easy to defend in the paint, and until he learns to finish better or make an assist when he penetrates, teams won't foul him enough to make those drives more profitable. I'm pleased with his improvement this year, but I would caution to make too much out of his percentage on threes. If he could, say, double or triple his attempts per game, and shoot them at the same percentage, then we would start to have something. That depends on Fox incorporating more three point shots for him in the offense, and Brown being willing to shoot more of them.

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So you are saying that rather than improvement it is just luck?

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calumnus said:

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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Brown's percentage is very good, but his sample size is so small that his threes are almost irrelevant in terms of affecting the results of the team as a whole. He has only 22 attempts, as you wrote, but on a per 40 minute basis, no one in the usual rotation shoots fewer three point attempts than Brown, except Kelly with 3 total attempts this season and Lars with none. I also think if Brown was really a 45% shooter that Fox could trust, Fox would be insisting he shoot a lot more attempts than one per game, which is what Brown has been shooting this season. A walkon taking up minutes in a blowout can put up one three in a game. Nick Kerr put up about one attempt per game at Cal. He played a total of 11 minutes over 7 games in 2016, put up 6 three point attempts and made 3, shooting .500 in mostly garbage time. I don't remember if any of his threes affected a game, but most did not.

Brown needs to improve his free throw shooting, and he needs to improve his ability to get to the line. He is too easy to defend in the paint, and until he learns to finish better or make an assist when he penetrates, teams won't foul him enough to make those drives more profitable. I'm pleased with his improvement this year, but I would caution to make too much out of his percentage on threes. If he could, say, double or triple his attempts per game, and shoot them at the same percentage, then we would start to have something. That depends on Fox incorporating more three point shots for him in the offense, and Brown being willing to shoot more of them.

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So you are saying that rather than improvement it is just luck?

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HoopDreams said:

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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Brown's percentage is very good, but his sample size is so small that his threes are almost irrelevant in terms of affecting the results of the team as a whole. He has only 22 attempts, as you wrote, but on a per 40 minute basis, no one in the usual rotation shoots fewer three point attempts than Brown, except Kelly with 3 total attempts this season and Lars with none. I also think if Brown was really a 45% shooter that Fox could trust, Fox would be insisting he shoot a lot more attempts than one per game, which is what Brown has been shooting this season. A walkon taking up minutes in a blowout can put up one three in a game. Nick Kerr put up about one attempt per game at Cal. He played a total of 11 minutes over 7 games in 2016, put up 6 three point attempts and made 3, shooting .500 in mostly garbage time. I don't remember if any of his threes affected a game, but most did not.

Brown needs to improve his free throw shooting, and he needs to improve his ability to get to the line. He is too easy to defend in the paint, and until he learns to finish better or make an assist when he penetrates, teams won't foul him enough to make those drives more profitable. I'm pleased with his improvement this year, but I would caution to make too much out of his percentage on threes. If he could, say, double or triple his attempts per game, and shoot them at the same percentage, then we would start to have something. That depends on Fox incorporating more three point shots for him in the offense, and Brown being willing to shoot more of them.

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Brown only (and should only) shoot wide open 3s.

This is key so that teams don't completely collapse down when he is on the perimeter.

That's why his high percent is important to this team, and kudos for him to improve his long range shooting. We've won at least one game because he hit a clutch 3 pointer near the end of the game

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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SFCityBear said:

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calumnus said:

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Joel Brown leads Cal in 3 point % at .455 (10 of 22)

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Brown's percentage is very good, but his sample size is so small that his threes are almost irrelevant in terms of affecting the results of the team as a whole. He has only 22 attempts, as you wrote, but on a per 40 minute basis, no one in the usual rotation shoots fewer three point attempts than Brown, except Kelly with 3 total attempts this season and Lars with none. I also think if Brown was really a 45% shooter that Fox could trust, Fox would be insisting he shoot a lot more attempts than one per game, which is what Brown has been shooting this season. A walkon taking up minutes in a blowout can put up one three in a game. Nick Kerr put up about one attempt per game at Cal. He played a total of 11 minutes over 7 games in 2016, put up 6 three point attempts and made 3, shooting .500 in mostly garbage time. I don't remember if any of his threes affected a game, but most did not.

Brown needs to improve his free throw shooting, and he needs to improve his ability to get to the line. He is too easy to defend in the paint, and until he learns to finish better or make an assist when he penetrates, teams won't foul him enough to make those drives more profitable. I'm pleased with his improvement this year, but I would caution to make too much out of his percentage on threes. If he could, say, double or triple his attempts per game, and shoot them at the same percentage, then we would start to have something. That depends on Fox incorporating more three point shots for him in the offense, and Brown being willing to shoot more of them.

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So you are saying that rather than improvement it is just luck?

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Oh no, not at all. I think it probably is improvement, because the games I've seen, his threes are on the mark or a little off. Not airballs or shots off the backboard, that were probably not intended to go in off the backboard, but did. That is luck. And that was Brown last season sometimes. And Brown looks better shooting the three. When your misses are on the inside of the rim almost every time, you are a good shooter. You are zeroed in on the target. Brown might even be equal to or better than our best shooters, because he is only taking one attempt per game, and that is hard to do. If you take several attempts in a game, you can get hot or go ice cold, but you are at least getting warmed up. Brown never knows ahead of time when he is going to take that one shot, and the good thing about it is, the defense doesn't know when he is going to take it either.

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