Civil Bear said:
OaktownBear said:
BeachedBear said:
OaktownBear said:
Big C said:
OaktownBear said:
Big C said:
NathanAllen said:
dimitrig said:
calumnus said:
According to Sagarin's algorithms based on all the data being treated equally, Cal is #144 in Predictor and #143 in Golden Mean. This is #12 in the PAC-12.
However, In the model that weights more recent data more heavily, Recent, Cal is #133 showing we have improved somewhat as the season has progressed thus far. Cal is #9 in the PAC-12 in Recent, not so much because of Cal's improvement, but the collapse of Arizona State (#164), Washington State (#161), and Washington (#162).
Good shot at another win coming up
God, we are even more horrible than I thought.
And what happened to the Pac-12 in general!?
If you want to feel better, go back and look where Cal was in 2018 and 2019.
As for the conference, it has really slid over the past decade. I'm not really sure why. Outside of California, it's not super talent-rich compared to other parts of the country, but teams like Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, UW, and USC always seem to bring in a lot of new talent each year. Perhaps someone else has better insights, but for whatever reasons, Pac-12 schools have consistently underperformed compared to their Power 5 conference counterparts over the past 10 years or so.
I was going to say... maybe more horrible than dimitrig thought, but less horrible than before. If Fox is looking for a marketing slogan, perhaps we've stumbled onto something: "Cal Basketball -- Less and less horrible!"
Seriously, we were getting BLOWN OUT by nobodies. And our rankings... I didn't even know there were that many teams! At least we're trending up.
In Jones' last year we were 3-15 in conference averaging losing by 10.5 points and we were virtually unanimous Jones had to go. So far this year we are 2-8 in conference averaging losing by 8.5 points. What a difference 2 points makes.
Edit to add:
It is the middle of the conference season. Over the last 43 hours on the primary fan board for Cal basketball there have been exactly 6 posts about the current Cal basketball team. 12 if you count a discussion regarding the cable providers the games are on.
Anyone see a problem?
Apples to apples: Jones' last year, ten games in to conference, we were 0-10, were we not? Notably lower national rankings, too.
Still, I get the point: We're still not very good and fan interest is at a low ebb. At this point, I don't know what else to do except to wait until the incremental improvement plateaus and then make a change. In the meantime, let's enjoy the journey up to mediocre!
So just remember then that we finished the season very strong with 3 wins in a row including over a ranked team and a close loss in the PAC 12 tournament. I personally wouldn't look at it that way, but Cal finished 2019 a much better team than it started.
If you really want to bring Jones back, I think he's available - give him a call. Otherwise, not sure why you keep picking at that scab. The twelve of us still posting haven't forgotten.
I vehemently argued for Jones' firing. I'm being consistent based on results. I'm challenging the universal narrative of the twelve of you that there has been significant improvement. The data says otherwise.
How very SFCity of you to cherrypick data and not use your eyes. Anyone watching can see the Bears are appreciably better at this point in the season with less talent. This from a 30-yr season ticket holder that gave them up under Jones and didn't care eitherway if he got fired before his contract expired, but can now stomach watching the games again. They have actually reached Div I mediocracy at this point. I fully understand your hesitancy to potentially get drawn back in; but if you have truly given up, then why are you even here?
I disagree with who is channeling SFCity here. His problem isn't using cherrypicked data over his eyes. I think you have a number of City-esque statements.
1. They have reached Div I mediocrity. This one is classic SFCity material. So, yes. Technically they are Division I mediocre. There are 350 Division I teams. You full well know that Power conference teams do not measure themselves against mid majors any more than FBS teams measure themselves against FCS in football. Fact is, our Sagarin is last in conference. We are last out of the following conferences:
Pac-12 - 12 teams
ACC - 15 teams
Big East - 11 teams
Big 10 - 14 teams
Big 12 - 10 teams
SEC - 14 teams
There are two teams in the American Athletic Conference that are worse than us. Out of 11.
That is our competition. Not all of DI. 7 conferences. We are 85th out of 87 teams.
2. Another City-esque argument. For some reason we are supposed to ignore that the rest of the season in 2019 happened. Because for some reason we supposed to compare the exact date of each season. Well, my preference is to measure at the end of the season, and that is what we will do. But the pronouncements of the 12 are already coming in that we are much improved. That is very preliminary, but if we are going to do that comparison now, .200 against conference teams (and I'm not counting the loss to OSU "nonconference"), is not a lot better than .167. 11th or 12th place (depending how you measure) is not a lot better than 12th. 2 points shaved off average margin of loss is not a lot better. 85 out of 87 is not a lot better.
3. Note, I didn't say we weren't better. We have improved a little on what was a terrible season. That is reflected in the Sagarin that Nathan posted to prove we had improved. Wyking Jones was the worst coach in America. Mark Fox is not. Keith Gilbertson being better than Tom Holmoe does not mean I want Keith Gilbertson
4. I don't trust "eyes". Anyone who has read Moneyball should know that. Eyes belong to humans who make emotional decisions based on preferences that are irrelevant to the purpose. I don't care if the games are "watchable". Because Cal fans "eyes" tend to prefer watching a team of 5 foot 4 guys going 0-18 running an organized offense where they pass three times before they shoot, than watching a team of good players going 6-12 running a disorganized offense. I don't. I know Fox's decidedly average game day coaching is decidedly better than Jones' decidedly bad game day coaching. However, there are many facets to coaching and he is below average at best at everything else including attributes that a coach at Cal really needs to excel at have any chance
5. If we are going to use "eyes", if you think this team is better than Cal was at the end of 2019, I think you stopped watching. The team that beat a ranked opponent, won three in a row, and as a huge underdog lost by 4 in the conference tournament to a team that went to the championship is better to my eyes than this year's team. Cal improved an unusual amount over the last 10 games of the season that year, partially with improvement in Vanover's game.
6. Wyking Jones inherited an incredibly crappy roster. I didn't see that as an excuse for the obvious coaching issues. But he had just started to get the roster to serviceable as was evident in the end of 2019. Then we hired a coach who immediately lost most of the best parts of the roster. So when you start with a crappy roster because you lost most of the best guys, I don't see that as an excuse for being where we are now. I'm just confused why watchable is the standard now. I don't see that this team is in any better position to improve in the coming years than it was in 2019. I expect us to be better next year assuming everyone comes back, just as I expected that at the end of 2019. Now as then I do not see what anyone is smoking if they see any timeline that gets us to even 4th place.
7. While I have given up hope until Cal pulls its head out of its ass, I think decades of fandom makes it okay for me to hope and lobby for Cal to pull its head out of its ass. I have specifically not posted a lot. I did not take the bait of City and others acting like they won an argument when Cal actually won a game, because I firmly believe all of you ought to be happy when Cal wins, lord knows it doesn't come along often, and I'm not going step on that. I do reserve the right to once in a while take issue with people being thrilled with a watchable last place. Frankly, my posts every couple weeks are only standing out because everyone is gone. When Holmoe was this bad, there were like a 100 negative posts a day. When Dykes was this bad, there were like a 100 negative posts a day. When Braun wasn't nearly this bad, there were like 100 negative posts a day. When Tedford still had a winning record there were like 100 posts a day. Cal basketball fandom is approaching the Friends and Family plan. It is a pretty bad situation that no one cares enough to be upset.