Win Share per 40 min
1. Kelly .241
2. Lars .131
3. Alajiki .120
4. Foreman .102
5. Anticevich.090
6. Celestine.071
7. Brown .064
8. Kuany .063
9. Klonaras .058
10. Shepard .056
11. Hyder .021
12. Anywanwu -.273

about what I'd say from the eye ball test if you filter out players who haven't had a lot of minutes

HoopDreams said:

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about what I'd say from the eye ball test if you filter out players who haven't had a lot of minutes

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Dropping anyone with less than 50 min.:
1. Kelly
2. Alajiki
3. Foreman
4. Anticevich
5. Celestine
6. Brown
7. Kuany
8. Shepard

calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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about what I'd say from the eye ball test if you filter out players who haven't had a lot of minutes

---

Dropping anyone with less than 50 min.:
1. Kelly
2. Alajiki
3. Foreman
4. Anticevich
5. Celestine
6. Brown
7. Kuany
8. Shepard

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Feels about right, however, Shepard has had some good stretches and bad stretches. I'm hoping the ratio of good/bad improves with more data and expect him to be nearer top 5.

K2 provides a few things that don't show up in advanced metrics, but I think he is what he is at this point and his future minutes will probably reflect that.

shepards hesi move. best move in basketball

Shep lays it in. He's got 15.

📺 » FS1 pic.twitter.com/hlIcgzUsjD

— Cal Basketball (@CalMBBall) November 23, 2021

calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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about what I'd say from the eye ball test if you filter out players who haven't had a lot of minutes

---

Dropping anyone with less than 50 min.:
1. Kelly
2. Alajiki
3. Foreman
4. Anticevich
5. Celestine
6. Brown
7. Kuany
8. Shepard

---

I believe, by chance, I happened to miss a good stretch that Foreman had in one game, but still: Surprising that he would be that high, based on what I've seen this season. Of course, it sure doesn't help the "eye test" when he takes what appears to be an outlandish shot... and misses badly.

Big C said:

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calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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about what I'd say from the eye ball test if you filter out players who haven't had a lot of minutes

---

Dropping anyone with less than 50 min.:
1. Kelly
2. Alajiki
3. Foreman
4. Anticevich
5. Celestine
6. Brown
7. Kuany
8. Shepard

---

I believe, by chance, I happened to miss a good stretch that Foreman had in one game, but still: Surprising that he would be that high, based on what I've seen this season. Of course, it sure doesn't help the "eye test" when he takes what appears to be an outlandish shot... and misses badly.

---

Yeah, the stats do not differentiate between "in and out" and "air ball" but it is fair for a human observer to do so, though over the course of the season it should show up in the stats.

After Florida and still using 50 min as the cut off:

1. Kelly .221
2. Lars .158
3. Alajiki .082
4. Shepard .068
5. Celestine .065
6. Kuany .056
7. Grant .053
8. Brown .033
9. Foreman .007

This latest list confirms what I'm seeing. Weakness in the backcourt. For example, I love Brown's effort, athleticism and defense, but I don't like what he does on offense so far, neither the scoring, nor the "flow", nor the facilitation. Then there's Foreman. Then there's Hyder, who apparently hasn't yet earned 50 minutes of PT.

Updated to include Fresno State stats:
1. Kelly .270
2. Lars .161
3. Kuany .104
4. Celestine.077
5. Anticevich .073
6. Alajiki .059
7. Shepard .040
8. Brown .036
9. Foreman -.008
10. Hyder -.064

The improvement of Lars and Kuany is showing up in the stats. They might challenge Grant for more minutes. Grant is shooting well, but they are too and provide better defense.

Thus far, the big issue is our backcourt. Shepherd, Foreman and Hyder are a collective 10 of 43 (.232) from 3. Meanwhile Brown is 5 of 9 (.556). He needs to be encouraged to take that shot when open.

calumnus said:

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Updated to include Fresno State stats:
1. Kelly .270
2. Lars .161
3. Kuany .104
4. Celestine.077
5. Anticevich .073
6. Alajiki .059
7. Shepard .040
8. Brown .036
9. Foreman -.008
10. Hyder -.064

The improvement of Lars and Kuany is showing up in the stats. They might challenge Grant for more minutes. Grant is shooting well, but they are too and provide better defense.

Thus far, the big issue is our backcourt. Shepherd, Foreman and Hyder are a collective 10 of 43 (.232) from 3. Meanwhile Brown is 5 of 9 (.556). He needs to be encouraged to take that shot when open.

---

Agreed on Joel taking the open shot, several people keep telling him! He can be very hard on himself (as especially is Grant). Joel has to develop a floater, as it is open for him when he beats the first defender and if missed will give the Bigs a opportunity for a put back. Its striking how the flow is restricted and especially the hesitancy of ball penetration/movement when Joel is out of the game. Additionally defensive intensity drops. Personally I pull for him the most, because of his dedication, quality of person and overall hardship he has overcome.

4thGenCal said:

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calumnus said:

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Updated to include Fresno State stats:
1. Kelly .270
2. Lars .161
3. Kuany .104
4. Celestine.077
5. Anticevich .073
6. Alajiki .059
7. Shepard .040
8. Brown .036
9. Foreman -.008
10. Hyder -.064

The improvement of Lars and Kuany is showing up in the stats. They might challenge Grant for more minutes. Grant is shooting well, but they are too and provide better defense.

Thus far, the big issue is our backcourt. Shepherd, Foreman and Hyder are a collective 10 of 43 (.232) from 3. Meanwhile Brown is 5 of 9 (.556). He needs to be encouraged to take that shot when open.

---

Agreed on Joel taking the open shot, several people keep telling him! He can be very hard on himself (as especially is Grant). Joel has to develop a floater, as it is open for him when he beats the first defender and if missed will give the Bigs a opportunity for a put back. Its striking how the flow is restricted and especially the hesitancy of ball penetration/movement when Joel is out of the game. Additionally defensive intensity drops. Personally I pull for him the most, because of his dedication, quality of person and overall hardship he has overcome.

---

Yeah, Joel is easy to root for. Hard on himself seems to be the case. His two issues are confidence in his shot and a FT% that is somehow lower than his 3pt%. He has the physical tools, but could probably use the services of a sports psychologist to get past those issues.

Updated to include Fresno State stats:
1. Kelly .270 - clear he is our best player, and has proven he can play against size
2. Lars .161 - I guess this is offensive rating, which I've seen only a little improvement upon. Probably too small a sample size given his limited minutes, BUT, I've seen improvement in his defense and rebounding
3. Kuany .104 - shows flashes since his freshmen year. will this be the season he puts it together, or will it be next year?
4. Celestine.077 - hopefully this reflects his injury, but to my eyes he is one of our best players against top competition
5. Anticevich .073 - this has GOT TO improve for this team to have any kinda success
6. Alajiki .059 - clearly a work in progress, but hopefully can provide a spark depending on matchups
7. Shepard .040 - our go to play at the end of a clock, but inefficient. that translates to a big problem
8. Brown .036 - if he finishes more of those drives, this rating will go up dramatically. He does the tough stuff to get to the rack, but does not finish well still (but improving)
9. Foreman -.008
10. Hyder -.064

HoopDreams said:

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Updated to include Fresno State stats:
1. Kelly .270 - clear he is our best player, and has proven he can play against size
2. Lars .161 - I guess this is offensive rating, which I've seen only a little improvement upon. Probably too small a sample size given his limited minutes, BUT, I've seen improvement in his defense and rebounding
3. Kuany .104 - shows flashes since his freshmen year. will this be the season he puts it together, or will it be next year?
4. Celestine.077 - hopefully this reflects his injury, but to my eyes he is one of our best players against top competition
5. Anticevich .073 - this has GOT TO improve for this team to have any kinda success
6. Alajiki .059 - clearly a work in progress, but hopefully can provide a spark depending on matchups
7. Shepard .040 - our go to play at the end of a clock, but inefficient. that translates to a big problem
8. Brown .036 - if he finishes more of those drives, this rating will go up dramatically. He does the tough stuff to get to the rack, but does not finish well still (but improving)
9. Foreman -.008
10. Hyder -.064

---

The ratings combine both offensive and defensive ratings for a "win contribution per minute played." Obviously defensive ratings are less precise and sample size is small so far. However, his defensive rating reflects the fact that opposing teams score fewer points per possession when he is in the game. That is the advantage of being a 7-footer. However, his improvement this year is in scoring (though his FG% is down) , rebounding, blocks and with fewer turnovers.

Updated WS/40 after Utah
1. Kelly .260
2. Kuany .120
3. Lars .101
4. Alajiki .093
5. Celestine .086
6. Shepherd.084
7. Anticevich.060
8. Foreman .047
9. Brown .027
10. Hyder -.059

calumnus said:

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Updated WS/40 after Utah
1. Kelly .260
2. Kuany .120
3. Lars .101
4. Alajiki .093
5. Celestine .086
6. Shepherd.084
7. Anticevich.060
8. Foreman .047
9. Brown .027
10. Hyder -.059

---

grant dropping. not good

I find it interesting that the top 4 are inside players.

stu said:

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I find it interesting that the top 4 are inside players.

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Poor guard play will do that by default.

HoopDreams said:

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calumnus said:

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Updated WS/40 after Utah
1. Kelly .260
2. Kuany .120
3. Lars .101
4. Alajiki .093
5. Celestine .086
6. Shepherd.084
7. Anticevich.060
8. Foreman .047
9. Brown .027
10. Hyder -.059

---

grant dropping. not good

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Grant is actually not too far off from where he was last year (.064), also then 7th on the team. His scoring and rebounding are slightly up while his other stats are slightly down. His box scores are negative because the guys that come in for him (Kuany especially) are playing better than him, which is actually a good thing since he is in his 5th season and pretty much has reached his ceiling.

stu said:

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I find it interesting that the top 4 are inside players.

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I find it "interesting" that the bottom 3 are our point guards. Interesting but not surprising.

Big C said:

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stu said:

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I find it interesting that the top 4 are inside players.

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I find it "interesting" that the bottom 3 are our point guards. Interesting but not surprising.

---

We are #307 in the country as a team in Assist to Turnover ratio.

calumnus said:

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Big C said:

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stu said:

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I find it interesting that the top 4 are inside players.

---

I find it "interesting" that the bottom 3 are our point guards. Interesting but not surprising.

---

We are #307 in the country as a team in Assist to Turnover ratio.

---

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Assist / Turnover Ratio | TeamRankings.com

#275 with A/TO of ,773

This is good compared to the woeful 17-18's .670 => #345 (iirc we were hanging in the bottom 10 all season)

GO BEARS!!!!

bearup said:

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calumnus said:

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Big C said:

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stu said:

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I find it interesting that the top 4 are inside players.

---

I find it "interesting" that the bottom 3 are our point guards. Interesting but not surprising.

---

We are #307 in the country as a team in Assist to Turnover ratio.

---

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Assist / Turnover Ratio | TeamRankings.com

#275 with A/TO of ,773

This is good compared to the woeful 17-18's .670 => #345 (iirc we were hanging in the bottom 10 all season)

GO BEARS!!!!

---

Great.

Though hang on, we are still in the cupcake filled part of our schedule. Lots of basketball still to be played.

Go Bears

Cupcakes have been giving us stomach aches for the past five years now.

After Dartmouth
1. Kelly .261
2. Lars .196
3. Alajiki .147
4. Kuany .112
5. Foreman .103
6. Shepherd .099
7. Celestine .092
8. Anticevich .082
9. Brown .052
10. Hyder -.006

Most noticeable is Celestine dropping and Anticevich, Brown and Hyder continuing to struggle.

According to HerHoopStats Cal WBB freshie Jayda Curry has 0.31 win shares per 40 minutes. Wish I knew how to calculate that without paying.

Grant's really frustrating to watch and this data supports it. He can get hot for about 5 minutes a game but take those away he's a 30% shooter the other 25 minutes he's on the floor, no matter how open he is. His misses are at inopportune times- we're mounting a comeback and he takes a rushed, contested shot or we're pulling away and he forces a shot he clearly doesn't need to take. Contrast that to Shephard who has a poor shooting percentage, but his misses are often at the end of the shot clock and never feel like they change the momentum the way Grant's do.

He certainly gets credit for his rebounding and defense which I think have been solid and more consistent than his offense.

Anyhow, not sure anything is going to change at this point of his career but his inefficiency is opening the door for the younger guys which I think is a good thing.

calumnus said:

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Updated WS/40 after Utah
1. Kelly .260
2. Kuany .120
3. Lars .101
4. Alajiki .093
5. Celestine .086
6. Shepherd.084
7. Anticevich.060
8. Foreman .047
9. Brown .027
10. Hyder -.059

---

We have a pretty good, deep bench.

We just need to find 3-4 starters.

Just pray Hyder is back. He looked good in the last game. Not so tentative.

Updated after ASU
1. Kelly .247
2. Lars .189
3. Alajiki .166
4. Celestine .129
5. Anticevich.120
6. Shepherd .117
7. Foreman .114
8. Kuany .113
9. Brown .076
10. Hyder .021

So what is the best stat to show that a team is playing together and becoming more than the sum of its parts? I think that is what we are seeing happening this year.

calumnus said:

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Updated after ASU
1. Kelly .247
2. Lars .189
3. Alajiki .166
4. Celestine .129
5. Anticevich.120
6. Shepherd .117
7. Foreman .114
8. Kuany .113
9. Brown .076
10. Hyder .021

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Advanced stats are arbitrary formulas that are only interesting if they mostly confirm what we already know about the team. If Brown, who is absolutely crucial, is ninth ranked, we know they are not helpful for this team.

annarborbear said:

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So what is the best stat to show that a team is playing together and becoming more than the sum of its parts? I think that is what we are seeing happening this year.

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Wins?

oskidunker said:

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Just pray Hyder is back. He looked good in the last game. Not so tentative.

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If Hyder could hit even 30% on his three-pointers and if what has seemed to be a lack of athleticism has actually been his injuries (and he recovers from those), that would be absolutely huge for this team... the rest of this season and beyond.

Big C said:

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oskidunker said:

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Just pray Hyder is back. He looked good in the last game. Not so tentative.

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If Hyder could hit even 30% on his three-pointers and if what has seemed to be a lack of athleticism has actually been his injuries (and he recovers from those), that would be absolutely huge for this team... the rest of this season and also next season.

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He is looking better and making shots.