The Basketball Talent Drain

Where can we find the next Jorge Gutierrez? Preferably, five of them.

Calabreezy said:

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Indeed. This is good content. Revealing in that our most exciting team was a "6" in this metric. The loaded team flamed out against Hawai'i (yes, I know the circumstances).

People were seriously predicting 0-18 for this team in conference. This team is enjoyable. I will enjoy it.

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I enjoyed the Kutchen teams of the early 80's and attended every game and have enjoyed and rooted for every team since.

I haven't seen his recent play, but I would think Vanover has a shot at a meaningful oversees career. It will be interesting to see the update of this analysis in a year or two to include the current team as well.

Output is a good measure of talent including recruiting, finding overlooked or under-rated players and player development.

I posted this earlier but another measure is recruiting rankings, specifically the number of players ranked in the Top 100 on the roster, with bonuses for elite (Top 25) players:

Top 100 Players on Cal Roster (plus elite Top 25)
1998-99 1
1999-00 3
2000-01 3
2001-02 4 with 1 elite
2002-03 2
2003-04 4 with 1 elite
2004-05 4
2005-06 4 with 1 elite
2006-07 5
2007-08 3
2008-09 3
2009-10 3
2010-11 2
2011-12 1
2012-13 2
2013-14 2
2014-15 2
2015-16 4 with 3 elite
2016-17 3 with 2 elite
2017-18 1 with 1 elite
2018-19 1
2019-20 1
2020-21 1
2021-22 0

Future NBA players on the Cal roster:
1980-81 1
1981-82 1
1982-83 0
1983-84 1
1984-85 2
1985-86 2
1986-87 2
1987-88 0
1988-89 1
1989-90 0
1990-91 0
1991-92 1
1992-93 2
1993-94 3
1994-95 3
1995-96 5
1996-97 3
1997-98 4
1998-99 3
1999-00 1
2000-01 1
2001-02 1
2002-03 0
2003-04 2
2004-05 1
2005-06 1
2006-07 2
2007-08 2
2008-09 2
2009-10 2
2010-11 2
2011-12 2
2012-13 2
2013-14 2
2014-15 2
2015-16 4
2016-17 2

1. Hire a completely unqualified coach, thereby alienating 95% of the fan base.
2. ???
3. Profit!!!

Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

Richard Solomon was an NBA player?

Chapman_is_Gone said:

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1. Hire a completely unqualified coach, thereby alienating 95% of the fan base.
2. ???
3. Profit!!!

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now we are an under armour school. ah, to be a jordan brand team again.

BearForce2 said:

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Where can we find the next Jorge Gutierrez? Preferably, five of them.

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Start with looking under Sam Alajiki. Okay, he's not quite Jorge, but at this point in their careers neither was Jorge just yet.

Looking back. That's often a problem.
Many Cal fans are glass half empty types. . . weiners and whiners.
BTW -- Where's Joe Shipp and Charlie Moore?
Do you assign negative points for a thinly veiled dunce AD (Williams)?

BearoutEast67 said:

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Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

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And this folks - right here - is a CORE problem with Cal athletics with far too much of this among the well connected donor group.

What is HYSTERICAL is that there are Cal programs that don't buy into this. Jack Clark is not finding 140 pound guys to put in the scrum and trying to "coach them up." Swim and Dive would NEVER consider kids that are not all state in their times and with significant upside to improve. Golf is not taking kids that can't break 90 and trying to "coach them up".

But (and yes, I honestly think there is some race here - though I am not saying that BOE67 is) we apply that standard to the 2 revenue sports - assuming that somehow (probably from watching Hoosiers way too may times) that with just a bit of magic and the right "hire" we can get a bunch of kids with no talent to run the picket fence and beat teams loaded with NBA talent. It is MADDENING.

Yes. for a variety of reasons the kids that are on track to have NBA and NFL careers often don't come from elite suburban high schools with the world handed to them on a platter like some golf hot shot or a kid that plays rugby for Torrey Pines and lives in Rancho. But don't think for a minute that the olympic sports cal excels in are not out there recruiting world class talent. It is just that they can't get PAID doing it - or to be precise - they ARE getting paid by getting special admits to an elite university and saving their already well off parents 60 to 80K with a partial scholarship on their way to getting that first job at Blaine after having invested 10s of thousands of dollars on Biffy and Buff to play on travel teams and get private coaching..

(BTW - I see this with SCT Jr. in spades. Decent swimmer, been doing Y and an off season fairly often. Does decent. Gets blown out by kids that are training 3-4 hours over at Pacific Swim with coaching talent where the montly nut STARTS at 900 and goes from there if you want (as many of the elite swimmers in San DIego do) private instruction works out 2 times a week. And don't for a minute get me started on elite travel Soccer).

Calabreezy said:

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Indeed. This is good content. Revealing in that our most exciting team was a "6" in this metric. The loaded team flamed out against Hawai'i (yes, I know the circumstances).

People were seriously predicting 0-18 for this team in conference. This team is enjoyable. I will enjoy it.

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The team with Jaylen Brown that flamed out in the tourney is a "10" above. I was so hooked on Cal basketball that year. Feels like an eternity ago now.

What's a "montly nut", and are they good?

Bobodeluxe said:

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What's a "montly nut", and are they good?

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LOL. Good call. Monthly nut - the cost of tuition. The best swim program in SD north county right now is 920 a month.

HearstMining said:

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Thanks for a good article albeit with the depressing conclusion. I'm more of a quant guy and your simple scoring system drives home the point that the talent level is at an all-time low. But it's also the names of those former Cal players that reinforces it. In almost every case, I think to myself, "Yeah, nobody on the current team like that guy . . . ". But the team looks better than we thought they would and I'm intrigued to see how they do against Pac12 teams. I'm curious to see how Kelly does against tougher opposition. Grant has finally put a couple of nice games together but I really hope some combination of Celestine, Hyder, and Alajiki can step up.

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Good post. I'd add Kuany to your list of those who can step up, if he can get healthy and stay that way. He looks to have improved in several areas.

BGGB2 said:

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Richard Solomon was an NBA player?

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Yes. For ten days. On the roster, I guess, but probably didn't play. Did not check on that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)

Oklahoma City Thunder (2019)[edit]

"On February 14, 2019 he signed a 10 day contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder,[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)#cite_note-18][18][/url]"

HearstMining said:

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Thanks for a good article albeit with the depressing conclusion. I'm more of a quant guy and your simple scoring system drives home the point that the talent level is at an all-time low. But it's also the names of those former Cal players that reinforces it. In almost every case, I think to myself, "Yeah, nobody on the current team like that guy . . . ". But the team looks better than we thought they would and I'm intrigued to see how they do against Pac12 teams. I'm curious to see how Kelly does against tougher opposition. Grant has finally put a couple of nice games together but I really hope some combination of Celestine, Hyder, and Alajiki can step up.

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Anticevich and Shepherd have already stepped up. Alajiki could be a star in a couple of years, though he hasn't played enough to date to really know. Shooting over 50% from three but probably very few attempts.

Gobears49 said:

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BGGB2 said:

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Richard Solomon was an NBA player?

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Yes. For ten days. On the roster, I guess, but probably didn't play. Did not check on that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)

Oklahoma City Thunder (2019)[edit]

"On February 14, 2019 he signed a 10 day contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder,[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)#cite_note-18][18][/url]"

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Solomon averaged a double-double his senior year and was one of the best big men in the conference, our MVP according to the advanced stats (much like Kelly last year) but you would never have known it reading these boards.

calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

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We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.

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You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting

LateHit said:

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I am glad I was sitting down when I read the words "enjoyed the Dick Kuchen teams".

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Yep.

calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

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We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.

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You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting

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Last year we mostly played PAC-12 teams. We had only 6 OOC games and went 5-1, beating Northwest University, Nichols State, USF, CSU Northridge, and Seattle while losing to Pepperdine.

This year we have had 11 OOC games and have gone 7-4, losing to UCSD, UNLV, Florida, Seton Hall, but beating USD, Southern Utah, FSU, Idaho State, Santa Clara, Dartmouth and Pacific.

Ken Pom has us as #108, a marginal improvement over last year's #114.

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Plus we beat The Beaver Believers

calumnus said:

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Gobears49 said:

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BGGB2 said:

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Richard Solomon was an NBA player?

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Yes. For ten days. On the roster, I guess, but probably didn't play. Did not check on that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)

Oklahoma City Thunder (2019)[edit]

"On February 14, 2019 he signed a 10 day contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder,[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)#cite_note-18][18][/url]"

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Solomon averaged a double-double his senior year and was one of the best big men in the conference, our MVP according to the advanced stats (much like Kelly last year) but you would never have known it reading these boards.

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Wasn't Crabbe and Cobbs on that team?

Solomon was a critical piece as a center, rebounder and defender, but I think Crabbe and even Cobbs would win the MVP over him

But agree with your general point that Solomon was better than most give him credit for, at least in his senior year when he seemed to put it all together

calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

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We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.

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You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting

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Last year we mostly played PAC-12 teams. We had only 6 OOC games and went 5-1, beating Northwest University, Nichols State, USF, CSU Northridge, and Seattle while losing to Pepperdine.

This year we have had 11 OOC games and have gone 7-4, losing to UCSD, UNLV, Florida, Seton Hall, but beating USD, Southern Utah, FSU, Idaho State, Santa Clara, Dartmouth and Pacific.

Ken Pom has us as #108, a marginal improvement over last year's #114.

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good post, and this is why I reserve my judgment on this team until we get through the first half of conference play. I'm not one who likes to make W/L predictions.

What I do think is we need to stay healthy and get healthy to have any type of success in the Pac12, and our final conference standings will have a lot to do with who we play, when, and in what situation (due to covid)

Love the direction of this article.
The posit is that the team goes postseason AND fans pack Hass IF cal has talent.

May I take it a step further?
Cal gets talent AND postseason AND fans when it has a good recruiter.

Of course, Monty overachieved his level of recruiting, but he's a major x&o anomaly among his coaching peers.

Or, Maybe we should bring in a Curtain of Doom,

calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

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We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.

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You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting

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Last year we mostly played PAC-12 teams. We had only 6 OOC games and went 5-1, beating Northwest University, Nichols State, USF, CSU Northridge, and Seattle while losing to Pepperdine.

This year we have had 11 OOC games and have gone 7-4, losing to UCSD, UNLV, Florida, Seton Hall, but beating USD, Southern Utah, FSU, Idaho State, Santa Clara, Dartmouth and Pacific.

Ken Pom has us as #108, a marginal improvement over last year's #114.

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I know it's a refreshing change as of late to have eight wins before Christmas, but just looking at the names of those teams we beat (plus Oregon St) is enough to keep my wild enthusiasm in check.

oskidunker said:

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calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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calumnus said:

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BearoutEast67 said:

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Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!

---

We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.

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You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting

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Last year we mostly played PAC-12 teams. We had only 6 OOC games and went 5-1, beating Northwest University, Nichols State, USF, CSU Northridge, and Seattle while losing to Pepperdine.

This year we have had 11 OOC games and have gone 7-4, losing to UCSD, UNLV, Florida, Seton Hall, but beating USD, Southern Utah, FSU, Idaho State, Santa Clara, Dartmouth and Pacific.

Ken Pom has us as #108, a marginal improvement over last year's #114.

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Plus we beat The Beaver Believers

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I was specifically talking about the OOC schedule, but yes, last year we lost to OSU on the road early, this year we beat them early at home. Of course last year they were 20-13 and ranked #43 in Ken Pom, this year they are 2-10 and are ranked #148. UC Davis beat them by 7 at Gill Coliseum, which puts our big 12 point win at Haas in perspective.

kenpom rankings still have preseason projections baked in I believe. I'm not sure what we were ranked to start the season but we have probably been playing a bit better than 108th this season to have that ranking