Let's predict the rest of the season...

2,873 Views | 22 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Big C
Big C
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Things have been going well as of late. Anybody want to take a shot at predicting how our conference record will end up?

(I do!)

First, it looks like this is a 20-game conference schedule, not the usual eighteen. (Mods, I think you need to add the U$C away game on 1/29 to this site's schedule.) Then there is the conference tournament, but let's just go with the "regular season".

Of course, it could get chaotic what with COVID. In fact, it already is, so I don't know if we want to try and assume we will play all twenty...

Anyway, I'm going to predict that we win six more games. Maybe seven (and hopefully even more), but six will be my call. Yes, we are on a little bit of a roll right now, but the wins will be becoming a little harder and I just don't see us getting past our backcourt deficiencies. (Hey, I would be delighted if we won ten more and I could admit how wrong I was!)

So, six more would make us 7-13, if we ended up playing all the scheduled games (looks doubtful right now, frankly).

What do you think,,, and why? Go Bears!
smh
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Big C said:

Of course, it could get chaotic what with COVID. In fact, it already is, so I don't know if we want to try and assume we will play all twenty...
foolish to suppose anyone has a chance to upset COVID as runaway season champ.

(sorry, thats all i got)
Big C
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Upon reflection, It might be a better metric to predict where we will finish in the Pac 12 standings. That way, however many games that get cancelled due to COVID are sort of taken into account.

To that end, I will predict "tied for 9th".

But whatever you feel like posting. My general feeling is that this is the same team that folks were a bit too pessimistic about two months ago (and are now maybe too optimistic about).
oskidunker
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Nit
Go Bears!
RedlessWardrobe
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Big C said:


Things have been going well as of late. Anybody want to take a shot at predicting how our conference record will end up?

(I do!)

First, it looks like this is a 20-game conference schedule, not the usual eighteen. (Mods, I think you need to add the U$C away game on 1/29 to this site's schedule.) Then there is the conference tournament, but let's just go with the "regular season".

Of course, it could get chaotic what with COVID. In fact, it already is, so I don't know if we want to try and assume we will play all twenty...

Anyway, I'm going to predict that we win six more games. Maybe seven (and hopefully even more), but six will be my call. Yes, we are on a little bit of a roll right now, but the wins will be becoming a little harder and I just don't see us getting past our backcourt deficiencies. (Hey, I would be delighted if we won ten more and I could admit how wrong I was!)

So, six more would make us 7-13, if we ended up playing all the scheduled games (looks doubtful right now, frankly).

What do you think,,, and why? Go Bears!
Obvious factor is the Covid issue, we don't know how many games will be played, and also when they will be played. That factor alone could alter where we finish either way.
That being said, at best fifth, at lowest 11th, NO ONE is finishing lower than Oregon State. The old cliche, this team will probably win a couple that they're not supposed to, and lose 2 or 3 that they're supposed to win. With that said I will go with 8-12.
I quoted your post because I'm not in complete agreement that our biggest problem is "backcourt deficiencies". I feel that if Foreman and Hyder get some of their health back over this current layoff, our backcourt having a capable scorer (Shepherd) and a capable defender (Joel) along with two solid backups is not the biggest problem. I still feel interior defense is the biggest problem. And once the conference rotation sets in our most reliable scoring threat (Andre) may wear down due to playing against bigger guys on the defensive end. This is why I have mentioned in other posts that at some time it may be necessary to play Andre and Lars simultaneously.
I any case, lets hope the Bears can continue to show the consistent competiveness that we have seen in recent days. Perhaps by tournament time things can work in our favor. Go Bears!
joe amos yaks
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I'm sticking with 15-15 at the end of the season.
"Those who say don't know, and those who know don't say." - LT
RedlessWardrobe
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joe amos yaks said:

I'm sticking with 15-15 at the end if the season.
jay. I'm a retired guy with plenty of time on my hands. If all are played it totals 31 games. Are you going with 16-15 or 15-16? Or is your prediction based on one game lost to covid? Please clarify, thx!
joe amos yaks
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RedlessWardrobe said:

joe amos yaks said:

I'm sticking with 15-15 at the end if the season.
jay. I'm a retired guy with plenty of time on my hands. If all are played it totals 31 games. Are you going with 16-15 or 15-16? Or is your prediction based on one game lost to covid? Please clarify, thx!
A strong finish--16-15.
Optimistically, no Covid games.
"Those who say don't know, and those who know don't say." - LT
SFCityBear
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joe amos yaks said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

joe amos yaks said:

I'm sticking with 15-15 at the end if the season.
jay. I'm a retired guy with plenty of time on my hands. If all are played it totals 31 games. Are you going with 16-15 or 15-16? Or is your prediction based on one game lost to covid? Please clarify, thx!
A strong finish--16-15.
Optimistically, no Covid games.
This makes me happy. They laughed at me a long while back, when I predicted 14 wins overall. I hope you and anyone else who predicts 14+ are right.
SFCityBear
RedlessWardrobe
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SFCityBear said:

joe amos yaks said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

joe amos yaks said:

I'm sticking with 15-15 at the end if the season.
jay. I'm a retired guy with plenty of time on my hands. If all are played it totals 31 games. Are you going with 16-15 or 15-16? Or is your prediction based on one game lost to covid? Please clarify, thx!
A strong finish--16-15.
Optimistically, no Covid games.
This makes me happy. They laughed at me a long while back, when I predicted 14 wins overall. I hope you and anyone else who predicts 14+ are right.
Not me SFCB, didn't laugh at you. Might have snickered, that's all.
calumnus
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SFCityBear said:

joe amos yaks said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

joe amos yaks said:

I'm sticking with 15-15 at the end if the season.
jay. I'm a retired guy with plenty of time on my hands. If all are played it totals 31 games. Are you going with 16-15 or 15-16? Or is your prediction based on one game lost to covid? Please clarify, thx!
A strong finish--16-15.
Optimistically, no Covid games.
This makes me happy. They laughed at me a long while back, when I predicted 14 wins overall. I hope you and anyone else who predicts 14+ are right.


I thought 10-14 was the likely range, given the weak OOC schedule. Losing to UCSD shook thst a bit, but teams like OSU going from good to bad helps.

The main difference from pre/season is that it turns out the PAC-12 is not as good as anticipated. There are three very good teams: Arizona, UCLA and USC. There are two bottom dwelling wankers: OSU and UW (and not us!). I think we are in the 7 team mosh pit fighting for positions 4-10. We need to hold court at home against the other members of the seven sisters and beat the BDWs home and away. That would be 8 more wins. 16-15 (9-11) before the PAC-12 tournament. Maybe CBI?
graguna
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14 wins assuming all games are played. CAL then wins the pac 12 tourney, a series of NCAA tourney covid cancellations vaults CAL to the national championship game which they win 60-59 when Joel Brown hits 3 free throws after being fouled on a 3 down 2 win 1 sec on the clock.
that's best case scenario.
worst case - 12 wins and none of the other stuff happens.
SFCityBear
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graguna said:

14 wins assuming all games are played. CAL then wins the pac 12 tourney, a series of NCAA tourney covid cancellations vaults CAL to the national championship game which they win 60-59 when Joel Brown hits 3 free throws after being fouled on a 3 down 2 win 1 sec on the clock.
that's best case scenario.
worst case - 12 wins and none of the other stuff happens.
lol. Joel Brown seldom makes 3 FTs in a game, let alone 3 in a row, all needed to win with a second to go.

Edit: I just looked it up I may have to eat my words. He's made 3 or more FTs in a game twice in his first year, 5 times in his second year, and once this year.
SFCityBear
RedlessWardrobe
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graguna said:

14 wins assuming all games are played. CAL then wins the pac 12 tourney, a series of NCAA tourney covid cancellations vaults CAL to the national championship game which they win 60-59 when Joel Brown hits 3 free throws after being fouled on a 3 down 2 win 1 sec on the clock.
that's best case scenario.
worst case - 12 wins and none of the other stuff happens.
I agree with your prediction except you left one thing out. Just prior to Joel getting fouled, the Cal opponent had a chance to extend their lead on a driving layup but the player was met "at the summit" by Lars who incredibly blocked the shot forcefully leading to Joel retrieving the ball before his three point attempt.
bearister
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Wilner this morning in the East Bay Times said about Cal:

"Best case: eighth place
Worst case: 11th place"
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
oskidunker
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Best case Nit. Road games cancelled due to covid. 1 down, 8 to go.
Go Bears!
Big C
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bearister said:

Wilner this morning in the East Bay Times said about Cal:

"Best case: eighth place
Worst case: 11th place"

Wow, that's a surprisingly high "floor" considering recent Cal basketball. Maybe he forgot that we expanded to twelve schools?
JB was a Chieftain
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Assuming all games are played….

ASU- W
USC- L
UCLA- L
Wash-W
WSU- L
AZ- L
UCLA- L
USC- L
WSU- L
Wash- W
OSU- W
OR- L
COL- W
Utah- L
Stan- W
ASU- L
AZ- L

13-15 Final record

oskidunker
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Wheres the make up furd road game?
Go Bears!
calumnus
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Big C said:

bearister said:

Wilner this morning in the East Bay Times said about Cal:

"Best case: eighth place
Worst case: 11th place"

Wow, that's a surprisingly high "floor" considering recent Cal basketball. Maybe he forgot that we expanded to twelve schools?


Much of the PAC-12 is bad this year.

Oregon State is 2-10 and we already have a W on them.

So I agree with his floor, but I could see a tie for 6th or something like that as our ceiling, depending on if the other teams get their act together, as some did last year.
RedlessWardrobe
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calumnus said:

Big C said:

bearister said:

Wilner this morning in the East Bay Times said about Cal:

"Best case: eighth place
Worst case: 11th place"

Wow, that's a surprisingly high "floor" considering recent Cal basketball. Maybe he forgot that we expanded to twelve schools?


Much of the PAC-12 is bad this year.

Oregon State is 2-10 and we already have a W on them.

So I agree with his floor, but I could see a tie for 6th or something like that as our ceiling, depending on if the other teams get their act together, as some did last year.
And of course, will all of my confident forecasting of how bad OSU is, they proceed to beat Utah last night. Go figure.
calumnus
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RedlessWardrobe said:

calumnus said:

Big C said:

bearister said:

Wilner this morning in the East Bay Times said about Cal:

"Best case: eighth place
Worst case: 11th place"

Wow, that's a surprisingly high "floor" considering recent Cal basketball. Maybe he forgot that we expanded to twelve schools?


Much of the PAC-12 is bad this year.

Oregon State is 2-10 and we already have a W on them.

So I agree with his floor, but I could see a tie for 6th or something like that as our ceiling, depending on if the other teams get their act together, as some did last year.
And of course, will all of my confident forecasting of how bad OSU is, they proceed to beat Utah last night. Go figure.


David Bush's write-up is an excellent summary of each team. It looks like OSU could get stronger as the season goes on, much like last year.
Big C
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This is my dream scenario, thinking I maybe should have predicted more wins for my Golden Bears.

Keep it up, Bears!
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