We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

I'm hoping we can win one of the tow at home vs the Washington schools. Then maybe another win at OSU. One of the three following home games (CU, Utah, Furd) and maybe steal another road W against ASU.

That's 4 more wins and probably too optimistic. But we'll play all the games and maybe get another upset and lost one of the winnable road games.

socaltownie said:

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We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

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Are you talking about not getting to double digits overall, or conference (i.e., at least .500 in conference)?

If you're taking about not getting to double digit wins in conference, that was never a real strong possibility, and it became very unlikely when we got swept in Washington.

But we're 9-10. One win from double digits overall. It will be really hard not to do that. Is 0-13 (including the conference tourney) a possibility? Sure, just not very likely.

Just to take one statistical model, Sagarin's Predictor model has us going 2-10 the rest of the way, losing to everyone but UW and Utah, two home games, with a 4.2 points predicted margin over UW and only 0.13 points over Utah. However, Stanford at home is only a 0.25 point loss, OSU on the road only 1.88 point loss, Colorado at home a 2.3 point loss, at ASU a 3.54 point loss, WSU at home is a 3.87 point loss, and at Stanford is a 5.61 point loss.

The other four, at UCLA, at USC, at Oregon, and at Arizona, are all projected double digit losses, and I completely rule out any chance against UCLA, USC, and Arizona. Oregon has been inconsistent enough that you never know, so I'm saying there's a chance, even better than one in a million, but less than one in 10. I'll just assume we go 0-4 in those games.

But for the eight where there is a realistic chance, I kind of like 5-3 as my best guess. Maybe slightly optimistic, but not crazy, even if Sagarin puts us at 2-6. Either 0-8 or 8-0 aren't out of the question, but 5-3 is pretty realistic, and I think it unlikely we do worse than 4-4. The 2.68 point margin that Sagarin adds to a home team probably isn't enough for most Pac-12 games this year, and Cal is a team where that margin probably isn't enough to add home or subtract on the road. I think we have a fair shot to win all five of the remaining home games, I think 4-1 is reasonable, I don't see how we do worse than 3-2 -- in spite of the talent deficit, the Bears play hard every night. Of the road games, it is fair to think we'd win one of the three games against Stanford, OSU, and ASU (especially since you never know what ASU team will show up any time, any place, we're talking a team that lost at HOME to WSU 51-29).

Going 5-3 in those 8, i.e., 5-7 the rest of the way, makes us 7-13 for the conference season, 14-17 overall, pending the conference tourney. I assume Fox survives that.

If we don't get to double digits overall, i.e., go 0-13 the rest of the way (not totally out of the question, especially if we lose to UW), I sure hope Fox doesn't survive. I hope Fox would resign.

And best guess, the next win is UW at home on Feb. 3, the most likely win of the of the 8 games we can realistically win, especially since at Stanford on Feb 1 is the least likely win of those 8.

Would 17-14 get us into the Nit? Assuming we win all those8 games.

oskidunker said:

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Would 17-14 get us into the Nit? Assuming we win all those8 games.

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17-14 seems so unrealistic to me, we might as well talk about winning the conference tournament and then making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we pick up 3-4 more wins. Not sure exactly where, but somewhere.

socaltownie said:

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We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

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Survive it? Lol I'd be surprised if Knowlton doesn't already have his extension drafted.

Big C said:

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oskidunker said:

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Would 17-14 get us into the Nit? Assuming we win all those8 games.

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17-14 seems so unrealistic to me, we might as well talk about winning the conference tournament and then making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we pick up 3-4 more wins. Not sure exactly where, but somewhere.

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We did drop 71 points on Arizona. If Arizona scored 30 points less, we would have won easily.

Big C said:

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oskidunker said:

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Would 17-14 get us into the Nit? Assuming we win all those8 games.

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17-14 seems so unrealistic to me, we might as well talk about winning the conference tournament and then making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we pick up 3-4 more wins. Not sure exactly where, but somewhere.

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Sure, going 8-0 in the 8 games that could go either way is not likely, but it is WAY more likely than going 4-0 in the conference tourney, especially since that would most likely involve beating two out of three of the LA's and Arizona, or maybe Oregon instead, I'd bank on winning the Lotto before I'll bank on Cal winning the conference tourney, and if that Lotto ticket got cashed, we'd need another winning Lotto ticket to take our 12 seed to the Sweet 16.

If Cal goes 8-0, it isn't because Cal all of a sudden is good. It is because the other bottom 8 of the conference aren't very good, and 5 of the games are at home. Solid mediocrity could get us to 8-0 in those games, it won't win the conference tourney. The hardest road game of the 8 games is Stanford, and yeah, I don't like our chances, but at times, Stanford has played like total crap at home. They are a mediocre team capable of playing poorly. ASU can play crazy bad, but also play pretty decent (although Hurley may have the team sinking into mostly bad). OSU is probably worse than Cal. We have a shot at those 3 road games, as well as the 5 home games, and no shot of 4-0 in the conference tourney.

At 17-14, I'd probably give us a 50-50 chance of NIT. Of course, we won't be 17-14 even if we win all those 8 games, most likely either 17-15 or 18-15, depending on how the conference tourney goes. At 18-15, it would depend on positional finish in the conference (which at 10-10 is maybe anywhere from 5th to 8th), and final NET ranking, but I think we'd have a decent shot, especially given the reasonably strong finish.

It is not likely we win all 8 of those games in the first place. But not completely crazy to hope for, and way, WAY less crazy than hoping to win the conference tourney. We'll have the hardest of those 8 a week from tonight, so we'll know more then.

Yes of course, 8285, winning the conference tourney and getting to the Sweet Sixteen is way more of a long shot. I was exaggerating to make a point as the other seems like quite a long shot to me, as well.

Our next best shot at a win is UW at Haas on Feb. 3, but I'm not counting us out in the makeup game against the Furd on the 1st.

PtownBear1 said:

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socaltownie said:

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We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

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Survive it? Lol I'd be surprised if Knowlton doesn't already have his extension drafted.

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"We are doing it the right way"

BearForce2 said:

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Big C said:

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oskidunker said:

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Would 17-14 get us into the Nit? Assuming we win all those8 games.

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17-14 seems so unrealistic to me, we might as well talk about winning the conference tournament and then making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

I think we pick up 3-4 more wins. Not sure exactly where, but somewhere.

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We did drop 71 points on Arizona. If Arizona scored 30 points less, we would have won easily.

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Yes! Excellent!

What an exciting season.

fat_slice said:

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socaltownie said:

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We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

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As we have learned - you can lose virtually every game and still survive here as a coach.

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In fact, you can use all those losses as a step ladder to a big time program.

Of course Fox survives another bad season and losing streak.

Cal8285 said:

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socaltownie said:

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We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

---

Are you talking about not getting to double digits overall, or conference (i.e., at least .500 in conference)?

If you're taking about not getting to double digit wins in conference, that was never a real strong possibility, and it became very unlikely when we got swept in Washington.

But we're 9-10. One win from double digits overall. It will be really hard not to do that. Is 0-13 (including the conference tourney) a possibility? Sure, just not very likely.

Just to take one statistical model, Sagarin's Predictor model has us going 2-10 the rest of the way, losing to everyone but UW and Utah, two home games, with a 4.2 points predicted margin over UW and only 0.13 points over Utah. However, Stanford at home is only a 0.25 point loss, OSU on the road only 1.88 point loss, Colorado at home a 2.3 point loss, at ASU a 3.54 point loss, WSU at home is a 3.87 point loss, and at Stanford is a 5.61 point loss.

The other four, at UCLA, at USC, at Oregon, and at Arizona, are all projected double digit losses, and I completely rule out any chance against UCLA, USC, and Arizona. Oregon has been inconsistent enough that you never know, so I'm saying there's a chance, even better than one in a million, but less than one in 10. I'll just assume we go 0-4 in those games.

But for the eight where there is a realistic chance, I kind of like 5-3 as my best guess. Maybe slightly optimistic, but not crazy, even if Sagarin puts us at 2-6. Either 0-8 or 8-0 aren't out of the question, but 5-3 is pretty realistic, and I think it unlikely we do worse than 4-4. The 2.68 point margin that Sagarin adds to a home team probably isn't enough for most Pac-12 games this year, and Cal is a team where that margin probably isn't enough to add home or subtract on the road. I think we have a fair shot to win all five of the remaining home games, I think 4-1 is reasonable, I don't see how we do worse than 3-2 -- in spite of the talent deficit, the Bears play hard every night. Of the road games, it is fair to think we'd win one of the three games against Stanford, OSU, and ASU (especially since you never know what ASU team will show up any time, any place, we're talking a team that lost at HOME to WSU 51-29).

Going 5-3 in those 8, i.e., 5-7 the rest of the way, makes us 7-13 for the conference season, 14-17 overall, pending the conference tourney. I assume Fox survives that.

If we don't get to double digits overall, i.e., go 0-13 the rest of the way (not totally out of the question, especially if we lose to UW), I sure hope Fox doesn't survive. I hope Fox would resign.

And best guess, the next win is UW at home on Feb. 3, the most likely win of the of the 8 games we can realistically win, especially since at Stanford on Feb 1 is the least likely win of those 8.

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Fox resigns? hahahaha

RedlessWardrobe said:

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Cal8285 said:

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socaltownie said:

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We obviously are not beating UCLA this weekend so we will see the losing streak extend to 6, I guess I got my hopes up - not getting to double digit wins is a distinct possibility.

Does Fox survive that?

---

Are you talking about not getting to double digits overall, or conference (i.e., at least .500 in conference)?

If you're taking about not getting to double digit wins in conference, that was never a real strong possibility, and it became very unlikely when we got swept in Washington.

But we're 9-10. One win from double digits overall. It will be really hard not to do that. Is 0-13 (including the conference tourney) a possibility? Sure, just not very likely.

Just to take one statistical model, Sagarin's Predictor model has us going 2-10 the rest of the way, losing to everyone but UW and Utah, two home games, with a 4.2 points predicted margin over UW and only 0.13 points over Utah. However, Stanford at home is only a 0.25 point loss, OSU on the road only 1.88 point loss, Colorado at home a 2.3 point loss, at ASU a 3.54 point loss, WSU at home is a 3.87 point loss, and at Stanford is a 5.61 point loss.

The other four, at UCLA, at USC, at Oregon, and at Arizona, are all projected double digit losses, and I completely rule out any chance against UCLA, USC, and Arizona. Oregon has been inconsistent enough that you never know, so I'm saying there's a chance, even better than one in a million, but less than one in 10. I'll just assume we go 0-4 in those games.

But for the eight where there is a realistic chance, I kind of like 5-3 as my best guess. Maybe slightly optimistic, but not crazy, even if Sagarin puts us at 2-6. Either 0-8 or 8-0 aren't out of the question, but 5-3 is pretty realistic, and I think it unlikely we do worse than 4-4. The 2.68 point margin that Sagarin adds to a home team probably isn't enough for most Pac-12 games this year, and Cal is a team where that margin probably isn't enough to add home or subtract on the road. I think we have a fair shot to win all five of the remaining home games, I think 4-1 is reasonable, I don't see how we do worse than 3-2 -- in spite of the talent deficit, the Bears play hard every night. Of the road games, it is fair to think we'd win one of the three games against Stanford, OSU, and ASU (especially since you never know what ASU team will show up any time, any place, we're talking a team that lost at HOME to WSU 51-29).

Going 5-3 in those 8, i.e., 5-7 the rest of the way, makes us 7-13 for the conference season, 14-17 overall, pending the conference tourney. I assume Fox survives that.

If we don't get to double digits overall, i.e., go 0-13 the rest of the way (not totally out of the question, especially if we lose to UW), I sure hope Fox doesn't survive. I hope Fox would resign.

And best guess, the next win is UW at home on Feb. 3, the most likely win of the of the 8 games we can realistically win, especially since at Stanford on Feb 1 is the least likely win of those 8.

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Fox resigns? hahahaha

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I think at At Oregon will be the toughest game.

I meant overall. I could absolutely see us losing out the string and finishing with 9 wins which will then put JK in a bit of a challenged place. Does he fire ANOTHER BB coach - this one his hire who loses his main 2 scorers from this year's squad (I assume Kelly grads/leaves). Does he try one more year for some light in the end of the tunnel, knowing that tix sales are likely to be even worse.

I don't envy him and I hope I am wrong and that we finishe with 4-5 wins.

socaltownie said:

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I meant overall. I could absolutely see us losing out the string and finishing with 9 wins which will then put JK in a bit of a challenged place. Does he fire ANOTHER BB coach - this one his hire who loses his main 2 scorers from this year's squad (I assume Kelly grads/leaves). Does he try one more year for some light in the end of the tunnel, knowing that tix sales are likely to be even worse.

I don't envy him and I hope I am wrong and that we finishe with 4-5 wins.

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We're pretty good at home so I think we can with the rest of our games at Haas, wow that UCLA, SC and AZ are out of the way.

socaltownie said:

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I meant overall. I could absolutely see us losing out the string and finishing with 9 wins which will then put JK in a bit of a challenged place. Does he fire ANOTHER BB coach - this one his hire who loses his main 2 scorers from this year's squad (I assume Kelly grads/leaves). Does he try one more year for some light in the end of the tunnel, knowing that tix sales are likely to be even worse.

I don't envy him and I hope I am wrong and that we finishe with 4-5 wins.

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I don't see it as that big a challenge to refrain from firing a coach who ends the season 0-18, especially when 10 of those games were ones where the teams were fairly evenly matched. I'm not sure how Knowlton can justify keeping a coach under that scenario.

I don't know how Fox can justify not resigning if he loses the last 18 games of the season.

If we finish by losing the last 18 games, it almost certainly means that the team has quit. Isn't really hard to spot the lack of effort. The lack of effort in too many games under Jones was obvious, the lack of quit under Fox even in losses has also been obvious.

Lack of quit under Fox is why I think it extremely unlikely we lose the last 18. Barring the team giving up, I don't see worse than 2-3 wins, and 4-5 seems most likely to me. If Fox no longer has the lack of quit, there is no justification for him keeping the job, and IMO, JK's decision is easy.

BearForce2 said:

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We did drop 71 points on Arizona. If Arizona scored 30 points less, we would have won easily.

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+1000

GO BEARS!!!!