Joel Brown recent shooting stats

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drizzlybear
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Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
sluggo
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drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
If Brown is truly a 45% free throw shooter (his season average) and if you randomly chose 12 free throws 11% of the time he would make at least 8. So what you see as improvement I see as wishful thinking. His shot is broken and has not become less broken in his three years at Cal.
drizzlybear
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sluggo said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
If Brown is truly a 45% free throw shooter (his season average) and if you randomly chose 12 free throws 11% of the time he would make at least 8. So what you see as improvement I see as wishful thinking. His shot is broken and has not become less broken in his three years at Cal.

Perhaps. But wouldn't you agree that the "random" selection of 12 free throws most likely to coincide with actual improvement would be the most recent 12 free throws?

We shall see. Since my post is projecting where he could be next season, let's check back in next year to see whether, as you say, Brown can't exceed his broken free throw shooting in the vicinity of 45%.
HoopDreams
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I commented that his two (clutch) free throws in the last game were with good form, good arc, and the perfect back rotation of the ball
drizzlybear
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HoopDreams said:

I commented that his two (clutch) free throws in the last game were with good form, good arc, and the perfect back rotation of the ball

I, too, thought his form and approach looked improved. It's part of the reason I did the statistical check in the first place. But ultimately, the proof will be in the pudding, and time will tell.
HoopDreams
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drizzlybear said:

HoopDreams said:

I commented that his two (clutch) free throws in the last game were with good form, good arc, and the perfect back rotation of the ball

I, too, thought his form and approach looked improved. It's part of the reason I did the statistical check in the first place. But ultimately, the proof will be in the pudding, and time will tell.
yeah, improved form is a major step, but putting up a ton of reps is needed for consistency too
calbearinamaze
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drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
If you believe in forever
Then life is just a one-night stand
If there's a rock and roll heaven
Well you know they've got a hell of a band
Civil Bear
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bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!


Likely, unless he graduates and an actual tourney contender desperately needs a 50% freethrow shooting point guard.
calbearinamaze
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Civil Bear said:




Likely, unless he graduates and an actual tourney contender desperately needs a 50% freethrow shooting point guard.

+1000

lol


GO BEARS!!!!
If you believe in forever
Then life is just a one-night stand
If there's a rock and roll heaven
Well you know they've got a hell of a band
sluggo
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drizzlybear said:

sluggo said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
If Brown is truly a 45% free throw shooter (his season average) and if you randomly chose 12 free throws 11% of the time he would make at least 8. So what you see as improvement I see as wishful thinking. His shot is broken and has not become less broken in his three years at Cal.

Perhaps. But wouldn't you agree that the "random" selection of 12 free throws most likely to coincide with actual improvement would be the most recent 12 free throws?

We shall see. Since my post is projecting where he could be next season, let's check back in next year to see whether, as you say, Brown can't exceed his broken free throw shooting in the vicinity of 45%.
Yes, if there was improvement the latest data would be the most important. On the other hand, I am saying positive trends will happen by chance, so it does not make sense to jump on them without more data. I did not say he could not improve. I am sure he wants to make money playing basketball, and improving his shooting is the key, so undoubtedly he is working on it.





drizzlybear
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sluggo said:

drizzlybear said:

sluggo said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
If Brown is truly a 45% free throw shooter (his season average) and if you randomly chose 12 free throws 11% of the time he would make at least 8. So what you see as improvement I see as wishful thinking. His shot is broken and has not become less broken in his three years at Cal.

Perhaps. But wouldn't you agree that the "random" selection of 12 free throws most likely to coincide with actual improvement would be the most recent 12 free throws?

We shall see. Since my post is projecting where he could be next season, let's check back in next year to see whether, as you say, Brown can't exceed his broken free throw shooting in the vicinity of 45%.
Yes, if there was improvement the latest data would be the most important. On the other hand, I am saying positive trends will happen by chance, so it does not make sense to jump on them without more data. I did not say he could not improve. I am sure he wants to make money playing basketball, and improving his shooting is the key, so undoubtedly he is working on it.







Whoa, that's a big time backpedal.
4thGenCal
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bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
drizzlybear
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4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.

Happy for him to pursue his academic/professional dreams, but bummed to know he likely won't be at Cal for his final year of eligibility.
calumnus
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drizzlybear said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.

Happy for him to pursue his academic/professional dreams, but bummed to know he likely won't be at Cal for his final year of eligibility.


Baring a surprise add to the 22-23 roster, we will have a true freshman and/or transfer at PG in 23-24.
Civil Bear
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drizzlybear said:

sluggo said:

drizzlybear said:

sluggo said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
If Brown is truly a 45% free throw shooter (his season average) and if you randomly chose 12 free throws 11% of the time he would make at least 8. So what you see as improvement I see as wishful thinking. His shot is broken and has not become less broken in his three years at Cal.

Perhaps. But wouldn't you agree that the "random" selection of 12 free throws most likely to coincide with actual improvement would be the most recent 12 free throws?

We shall see. Since my post is projecting where he could be next season, let's check back in next year to see whether, as you say, Brown can't exceed his broken free throw shooting in the vicinity of 45%.
Yes, if there was improvement the latest data would be the most important. On the other hand, I am saying positive trends will happen by chance, so it does not make sense to jump on them without more data. I did not say he could not improve. I am sure he wants to make money playing basketball, and improving his shooting is the key, so undoubtedly he is working on it.







Whoa, that's a big time backpedal.

I don't see it. More of a sidestep, if anything.
HearstMining
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4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.
HoopDreams
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That last sentence sounds like it might be his thoughts. Maybe he thinks his skill set is more suited to a fast break, less half-court oriented offense

I might agree with him, although he's not been very good running fast breaks.

Perhaps part of that is the relatively fewer times he's had the opportunity to do so, and there have been a few great fast breaks he's run

When he tries to take it himself to score they have been missed or blocked shots or turnovers, and I've never seen him drive and kick to a shooter on a break, but recently he has run a few breaks where he made great passes to a player ahead of the break for a score

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Civil Bear
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HearstMining said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.


The Bears don't get a lot of fast break opportunities because they keep everyone back, including Brown, to secure the defensive rebound and not get clobbered on the boards. The strategy seems appropriate to me for a team with limited height and skills that want to limit the amount of possessions.

If Brown could shoot just a lick the rest of his shortcomings wouldn't be as meaningful.
HearstMining
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Civil Bear said:

HearstMining said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.


The Bears don't get a lot of fast break opportunities because they keep everyone back, including Brown, to secure the defensive rebound and not get clobbered on the boards. The strategy seems appropriate to me for a team with limited height and skills that want to limit the amount of possessions.

If Brown could shoot just a lick the rest of his shortcomings wouldn't be as meaningful.
If Brown could shoot just a lick, we wouldn't be discussing this. I'm just proposing that Cal try to take advantage of Brown's speed by OCCASIONALLY (which is why it's all caps to emphasize) let him and another player leak out for a fast break. In other words sometimes play to a strength (Brown's speed) and not always just to hide weakness. Especially when Kelly was in, they were getting enough defensive rebounds to make this work a time or two each game. Maybe you try it the first five minutes of each half and catch the opponent napping.
SFCityBear
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With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.
SFCityBear
SFCityBear
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HearstMining said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.

This takes me back to high school. I attended Lowell High in SF, an academic school. At the end of 4 years and my final season, our Hall of Fame basketball coach lined all of us on the team up to say a few words to us. He said, "Well, we played OK this season, but not great. I had to keep it simple. Simple plays for simple minds."
SFCityBear
Cal8285
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SFCityBear said:

. . .

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.

A guy who is as poor as Brown could really benefit from shooting FT's Rick Barry style, but no one wants to do it. If you can ignore those who want to make fun of you, then it is a lot easier to deal with your stroke and your mind and your confidence when you shoot FT's that way. Of course, that's a big "if."
calumnus
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HearstMining said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.




Musgrave (and his defenders) said basically the same thing. We had to run vanilla plays in 2020 and most of 2021 because play-action and other misdirection is "too complicated" (for a 5th year QB and veteran team).
calumnus
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HearstMining said:

Civil Bear said:

HearstMining said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.


The Bears don't get a lot of fast break opportunities because they keep everyone back, including Brown, to secure the defensive rebound and not get clobbered on the boards. The strategy seems appropriate to me for a team with limited height and skills that want to limit the amount of possessions.

If Brown could shoot just a lick the rest of his shortcomings wouldn't be as meaningful.
If Brown could shoot just a lick, we wouldn't be discussing this. I'm just proposing that Cal try to take advantage of Brown's speed by OCCASIONALLY (which is why it's all caps to emphasize) let him and another player leak out for a fast break. In other words sometimes play to a strength (Brown's speed) and not always just to hide weakness. Especially when Kelly was in, they were getting enough defensive rebounds to make this work a time or two each game. Maybe you try it the first five minutes of each half and catch the opponent napping.


Agreed. This issue comes up all the time. If Brown is a known risk for a fast-break then the opponent needs to have someone defend that and then that person can't go after rebounds either.

It is similar to the "we can't play Jahvid Best much as a freshman because he is not yet a great blocker in pass protection" I'd much rather have Jahvid Best on the field as a running or receiving threat, if the opposition blitzes burn them a few times with a swing pass to Jahvid outside and that will take out a LB (or two) from putting pressure on the QB far more effectively than Jahvid could ever block.
SFCityBear
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Cal8285 said:

SFCityBear said:

. . .

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.

A guy who is as poor as Brown could really benefit from shooting FT's Rick Barry style, but no one wants to do it. If you can ignore those who want to make fun of you, then it is a lot easier to deal with your stroke and your mind and your confidence when you shoot FT's that way. Of course, that's a big "if."
Probably so. A radical change is sometimes better than a small change, but as you get older it is harder to make radical changes, if Wilt Chamberlain is an example. The underhand style is harder to learn than one might think. I tried to learn the underhand style, because I was playing with my father and his buddies, and they all shot them underhanded. I had played several years of tournament tennis prior to that time, and so my the muscles in my right arm, wrist, hand and fingers were all stronger than my left. All my underhand freethrows missed badly by going off line to the left of the center of the basket. I was blessed that I shot FTs in a regular way, one-handed at 90%+ for my little career.
SFCityBear
HoopDreams
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Civil Bear said:

HearstMining said:

4thGenCal said:

bearup said:

drizzlybear said:

Joel Brown has made 8 of his last 12 free throws (67%). Admittedly a small sample size, but i think it is definitely a sign of meaningful, sustainable improvement. And that's the range I think he can be at next season. And I'd bet he'll continue to improve that to >70% by his senior year (two years from now), and that would be acceptable.

Otoh, he has missed 15 of his last 16 3-pointers. He started the season off 5 for 9. Just watching him shoot, you could see it was not sustainable, and that 1 for 16 was much more likely. And here we are. Unfortunately, I don't envision JB accomplishing meaningful, sustainable 3-point shooting percentage (>30%) in his time at Cal. It's not a fatal flaw, but it is a significant flaw.
I've clearly been ill-informed about something "significant" here.

So, JB will be at CAL in 22-23 AND 23-24??????

(that's a good thing)

GO BEARS!!!!
No the most JB will be at Cal is thru the 22/23 season. He is going to graduate from the Business school and is on schedule. Always pull hard for him as Joel is a really solid young adult off the court and on the court gives 100% effort consistently. His game is somewhat hampered by the lack of attempts at transition and structure of the offense.
Good observation! Joel obviously has holes in his game, but speed isn't one of them. Between Anticevich and Kelly, they pulled down enough rebounds that OCCASIONAL fast-breaks would be a welcome change-of-pace. If the team worked on it in practice, I'm sure they could get some points in games.

Fox reminds me of Art Kaufmann in that he has little confidence in his own players, Sonny Dykes' defensive coordinator who admitted to running a basic defense because "that's all these players can handle". At the time I thought, "Hey, these are Cal students so they should at least be able to handle complexity. Why not use a more sophisticated defense?". Sure enough, when DeRuyter installed his scheme, the defense flourished.

My point is that this is not a hugely talented basketball team, but maybe the coach should be looking for more ways to take advantage of the strengths they have.


The Bears don't get a lot of fast break opportunities because they keep everyone back, including Brown, to secure the defensive rebound and not get clobbered on the boards. The strategy seems appropriate to me for a team with limited height and skills that want to limit the amount of possessions.

If Brown could shoot just a lick the rest of his shortcomings wouldn't be as meaningful.
yes, I think it's a good strategy post-Kelly to have everyone crash the boards. When we had Kelly, we did have guards sometimes break on the miss.

With Kelly or not, we do run on a steal or long rebound, but Brown hasn't had a lot of success as I mentioned above. Yet when I look at Brown's half-court play, and his size and speed, I'd say he has more potential in a fast break system.

As for FTs, his shooting form has improved a lot from his freshmen year. to increase his FT percent to 60% might be one offseason of hard work away.

he has developed a new shot when driving to the right side of the basket. That's a difficult shot so he's clearly worked hard to get it.

A pull-up jump shot is an entirely different thing. A floater is also, but Foreman developed one in the offseason

Brown has slowly but steadily improved his offense, and I expect him to work with private coaches offseason like he did last summer.



drizzlybear
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SFCityBear said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.


If you look at the original post, it is specifically about the possibility that Brown is already improving his free throws. He has made 67% of his last 12 free throws. As that post says, it's obviously a small sample size, so it could be misleading; but it also could be a sign that he is improving, and could potentially become an adequate (though still not ideal) FT shooter. And that would be huge. And that is the point of the original post.
oskidunker
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He is just as likely to miss two as to make two.if he makes the first there is no hope he will make the second
Go Bears!
Cal8285
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SFCityBear said:

Cal8285 said:

SFCityBear said:

. . .

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.

A guy who is as poor as Brown could really benefit from shooting FT's Rick Barry style, but no one wants to do it. If you can ignore those who want to make fun of you, then it is a lot easier to deal with your stroke and your mind and your confidence when you shoot FT's that way. Of course, that's a big "if."
Probably so. A radical change is sometimes better than a small change, but as you get older it is harder to make radical changes, if Wilt Chamberlain is an example. The underhand style is harder to learn than one might think. I tried to learn the underhand style, because I was playing with my father and his buddies, and they all shot them underhanded. I had played several years of tournament tennis prior to that time, and so my the muscles in my right arm, wrist, hand and fingers were all stronger than my left. All my underhand freethrows missed badly by going off line to the left of the center of the basket. I was blessed that I shot FTs in a regular way, one-handed at 90%+ for my little career.
Wilt scored 100 points in a game because he went 28-32 from the line shooting underhanded. How much of his going back to overhand was the stigma? And from the film I've seen of him shooting underhand, his hands got a little too far under the ball. Rick Barry style is more on the sides, . Wilt needed a little better coaching in underhand style and if he stuck with it, I'd bet he would have had at least a 70% career, potentially much better, instead of his 51.1%.

George Johnson was a much improved FT shooter going Rick Barry style, I think he's a good example that you can teach an old dog new tricks (although yes, he wasn't THAT old). The biggest issue with going underhand is taking the abuse from others for doing it.

Having muscles stronger in one arm shouldn't make underhand FT's go off center if your technique is proper. I'd say you needed better coaching in how to do it, but if you are shooting 90+%, good coaching will tell you to stick with the 90%+ style you are using.

I think the underhand style is easier to learn than one might think. In my rec basketball career, I went from being a 60% FT shooter to being an 80% FT shooter without spending any meaningful time working on it, learning from a video of Rick Barry explaining it. What if I worked on it? What if I was a good athlete and worked on it? My kids plus all the rec players I ever gave a brief lesson taught to in shooting underhand FT's learned very quickly and did it well. Almost none of them would stick with it because of the stigma, even though for the poor overhand FT shooters it was quickly obvious that it would be an improvement.

I've never seen a crappy FT shooter who is at all coordinated spend 15 minutes working on Rick Barry style and not improve. No point if you shoot 80% or better overhand, but for a guy struggling to shoot 50%? It would be worth getting coached for a couple of hours and trying it, if he can handle the stigma (which most can't).
SFCityBear
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drizzlybear said:

SFCityBear said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.


If you look at the original post, it is specifically about the possibility that Brown is already improving his free throws. He has made 67% of his last 12 free throws. As that post says, it's obviously a small sample size, so it could be misleading; but it also could be a sign that he is improving, and could potentially become an adequate (though still not ideal) FT shooter. And that would be huge. And that is the point of the original post.
I understood your original post. I wrote a lengthy post in reply, trying to say, with all due respect to you, that while an improvement in Brown's free throws would be huge, perhaps for him personally, and for his fans who care about his play, but it would not often be huge for the Cal team. He just does not get enough free throw attempts in a game to matter a lot, except in really close games decided by one or two points. And Cal usually loses by more than that. He averages less than two attempts per game. Nobody hardly ever fouls him. Brown is a terrific defender, and does not commit many personal fouls himself, but he commits more personal fouls than people foul him. Over the last two years, he has averaged 1.75 free throw attempts per game, while also fouling opponents at a rate of 2.6 personal fouls per game. He makes free throws at 0.85 per game.

For Brown to make a huge difference in the outcome of Cal games, he has to learn how to draw fouls. The usual way is to make more baskets, or make more assists, perhaps, or break down your defender on the dribble, get into the paint more. The big problem Brown has with this is that he is very fast, and very quick, and defenders can't catch up to him and foul him. They can't foul him much on the dribble, because his handle is too good, too quick. He blows by his man so fast, he leaves him in the dust. If he could finish better and finish more, score more points in the paint, he would start drawing fouls. If he could shoot mid-range shots and make them, he would draw more fouls. If he could make threes, and make more of them (he only shot one three point attempt per game over the last two seasons), then he would draw fouls. He is just too darn quick for most of his defenders, and not yet skilled enough to shoot and score a lot over the bigger defenders. He needs to get better at dishing in the lane, so that defenders will try extra hard to keep him out of the lane, and may have to foul him in the process, and give him free throws to shoot.

So, in my opinion, he has to work on drawing fouls, which is a skill, and work on his shooting from the field. He needs to learn to change speeds, slow down sometimes to sucker a defender into a foul. He has two speeds, fast and faster. You have to give the defender time to foul you. And practice your shooting more. Make a lot of baskets, and then defenders will give you free throws to shoot. Until that starts happening, it does not pay many dividends to practice shooting your free throws. Unless he can get more attempts, he is looking at adding maybe one more free throw made every other game, on average.
SFCityBear
SFCityBear
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Cal8285 said:

SFCityBear said:

Cal8285 said:

SFCityBear said:

. . .

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.

A guy who is as poor as Brown could really benefit from shooting FT's Rick Barry style, but no one wants to do it. If you can ignore those who want to make fun of you, then it is a lot easier to deal with your stroke and your mind and your confidence when you shoot FT's that way. Of course, that's a big "if."
Probably so. A radical change is sometimes better than a small change, but as you get older it is harder to make radical changes, if Wilt Chamberlain is an example. The underhand style is harder to learn than one might think. I tried to learn the underhand style, because I was playing with my father and his buddies, and they all shot them underhanded. I had played several years of tournament tennis prior to that time, and so my the muscles in my right arm, wrist, hand and fingers were all stronger than my left. All my underhand freethrows missed badly by going off line to the left of the center of the basket. I was blessed that I shot FTs in a regular way, one-handed at 90%+ for my little career.
Wilt scored 100 points in a game because he went 28-32 from the line shooting underhanded. How much of his going back to overhand was the stigma? And from the film I've seen of him shooting underhand, his hands got a little too far under the ball. Rick Barry style is more on the sides, . Wilt needed a little better coaching in underhand style and if he stuck with it, I'd bet he would have had at least a 70% career, potentially much better, instead of his 51.1%.

George Johnson was a much improved FT shooter going Rick Barry style, I think he's a good example that you can teach an old dog new tricks (although yes, he wasn't THAT old). The biggest issue with going underhand is taking the abuse from others for doing it.

Having muscles stronger in one arm shouldn't make underhand FT's go off center if your technique is proper. I'd say you needed better coaching in how to do it, but if you are shooting 90+%, good coaching will tell you to stick with the 90%+ style you are using.

I think the underhand style is easier to learn than one might think. In my rec basketball career, I went from being a 60% FT shooter to being an 80% FT shooter without spending any meaningful time working on it, learning from a video of Rick Barry explaining it. What if I worked on it? What if I was a good athlete and worked on it? My kids plus all the rec players I ever gave a brief lesson taught to in shooting underhand FT's learned very quickly and did it well. Almost none of them would stick with it because of the stigma, even though for the poor overhand FT shooters it was quickly obvious that it would be an improvement.

I've never seen a crappy FT shooter who is at all coordinated spend 15 minutes working on Rick Barry style and not improve. No point if you shoot 80% or better overhand, but for a guy struggling to shoot 50%? It would be worth getting coached for a couple of hours and trying it, if he can handle the stigma (which most can't).
Thanks for correcting my thinking. I always blamed my tennis for my poor underhand FT shooting. I was in the 5th grade when I started playing basketball. I had no coach then. My father was of a generation that usually left their sons to figure out how to do things by themselves, to make them more self-reliant, I suppose, or maybe he was just too busy. At that age, free throws were really important to me, because I was one of the worst players in the schoolyard at that age, and the way we chose up teams for a game, was to shoot free throws. I had to learn how to make them, or I would not be chosen to play, and left to watch or go home. The only reason I ever got to play was because of my shooting.

That period in time was when basketball had gradually changed from a two-hand set shot to a one hand set shot or running one hand shot like Hank Luisetti made famous. My generation was the one that transitioned from the one hand set shot to a two handed jump shot. When I arrived in high school, we shot both of those shots. We had a well-known coach, who played 145's in his Cal days, and he shot all his free throws underhanded. The league had a rule that allowed for a designated free throw shooter, so that when a player was fouled who perhaps was not a good free throw shooter, the coach could substitute a designated free throw shooter to shoot the fouls for him. My coach was very skilled at it, and he was selected as Cal's designated free throw shooter. I remember him jesting that we weren't very good free throw shooters, and he'd take the ball and rattle off 20 in a row, and then get bored with it, and tell us all to go practice more. He never offered to teach us how to do it. Maybe he knew of the stigma, or more likely, he was like my dad, and wanted kids to learn certain skills on their own. Several years before, my dad played for him, and he may have taught players then to shoot underhanded, as there was no stigma when my dad played.
SFCityBear
calumnus
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SFCityBear said:

drizzlybear said:

SFCityBear said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.


If you look at the original post, it is specifically about the possibility that Brown is already improving his free throws. He has made 67% of his last 12 free throws. As that post says, it's obviously a small sample size, so it could be misleading; but it also could be a sign that he is improving, and could potentially become an adequate (though still not ideal) FT shooter. And that would be huge. And that is the point of the original post.
I understood your original post. I wrote a lengthy post in reply, trying to say, with all due respect to you, that while an improvement in Brown's free throws would be huge, perhaps for him personally, and for his fans who care about his play, but it would not often be huge for the Cal team. He just does not get enough free throw attempts in a game to matter a lot, except in really close games decided by one or two points. And Cal usually loses by more than that. He averages less than two attempts per game. Nobody hardly ever fouls him. Brown is a terrific defender, and does not commit many personal fouls himself, but he commits more personal fouls than people foul him. Over the last two years, he has averaged 1.75 free throw attempts per game, while also fouling opponents at a rate of 2.6 personal fouls per game. He makes free throws at 0.85 per game.

For Brown to make a huge difference in the outcome of Cal games, he has to learn how to draw fouls. The usual way is to make more baskets, or make more assists, perhaps, or break down your defender on the dribble, get into the paint more. The big problem Brown has with this is that he is very fast, and very quick, and defenders can't catch up to him and foul him. They can't foul him much on the dribble, because his handle is too good, too quick. He blows by his man so fast, he leaves him in the dust. If he could finish better and finish more, score more points in the paint, he would start drawing fouls. If he could shoot mid-range shots and make them, he would draw more fouls. If he could make threes, and make more of them (he only shot one three point attempt per game over the last two seasons), then he would draw fouls. He is just too darn quick for most of his defenders, and not yet skilled enough to shoot and score a lot over the bigger defenders. He needs to get better at dishing in the lane, so that defenders will try extra hard to keep him out of the lane, and may have to foul him in the process, and give him free throws to shoot.

So, in my opinion, he has to work on drawing fouls, which is a skill, and work on his shooting from the field. He needs to learn to change speeds, slow down sometimes to sucker a defender into a foul. He has two speeds, fast and faster. You have to give the defender time to foul you. And practice your shooting more. Make a lot of baskets, and then defenders will give you free throws to shoot. Until that starts happening, it does not pay many dividends to practice shooting your free throws. Unless he can get more attempts, he is looking at adding maybe one more free throw made every other game, on average.


That is a bit of chicken and egg. Do you really want a 50% FT shooter trying to draw fouls and get to the line? In fact, I am surprised more teams don't intentionally foul Brown at the end of close games. You want him to improve his FT shooting before he starts trying to shoot more of them.

I also think underhand is a better solution for a 7' back to the basket center (Wilt or Shaq).

As a PG the biggest improvement Brown could make would be to have a reliable shot from the three point line and from the foul line. I see them as closely related. It is similar shooting mechanics, repetition and confidence. A shooting coach should be able to help with both. Maybe a sports psychologist too. One aspect of practicing free throws is it is not standing at the free throw line with someone rebounding for you and shooting 100 FTs.. it is not catch and shoot. It is getting the ball, walking up to the line, gathering yourself, going through a routine, and shooting, then repeating the entire process 100 times.
SFCityBear
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calumnus said:

SFCityBear said:

drizzlybear said:

SFCityBear said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.


If you look at the original post, it is specifically about the possibility that Brown is already improving his free throws. He has made 67% of his last 12 free throws. As that post says, it's obviously a small sample size, so it could be misleading; but it also could be a sign that he is improving, and could potentially become an adequate (though still not ideal) FT shooter. And that would be huge. And that is the point of the original post.
I understood your original post. I wrote a lengthy post in reply, trying to say, with all due respect to you, that while an improvement in Brown's free throws would be huge, perhaps for him personally, and for his fans who care about his play, but it would not often be huge for the Cal team. He just does not get enough free throw attempts in a game to matter a lot, except in really close games decided by one or two points. And Cal usually loses by more than that. He averages less than two attempts per game. Nobody hardly ever fouls him. Brown is a terrific defender, and does not commit many personal fouls himself, but he commits more personal fouls than people foul him. Over the last two years, he has averaged 1.75 free throw attempts per game, while also fouling opponents at a rate of 2.6 personal fouls per game. He makes free throws at 0.85 per game.

For Brown to make a huge difference in the outcome of Cal games, he has to learn how to draw fouls. The usual way is to make more baskets, or make more assists, perhaps, or break down your defender on the dribble, get into the paint more. The big problem Brown has with this is that he is very fast, and very quick, and defenders can't catch up to him and foul him. They can't foul him much on the dribble, because his handle is too good, too quick. He blows by his man so fast, he leaves him in the dust. If he could finish better and finish more, score more points in the paint, he would start drawing fouls. If he could shoot mid-range shots and make them, he would draw more fouls. If he could make threes, and make more of them (he only shot one three point attempt per game over the last two seasons), then he would draw fouls. He is just too darn quick for most of his defenders, and not yet skilled enough to shoot and score a lot over the bigger defenders. He needs to get better at dishing in the lane, so that defenders will try extra hard to keep him out of the lane, and may have to foul him in the process, and give him free throws to shoot.

So, in my opinion, he has to work on drawing fouls, which is a skill, and work on his shooting from the field. He needs to learn to change speeds, slow down sometimes to sucker a defender into a foul. He has two speeds, fast and faster. You have to give the defender time to foul you. And practice your shooting more. Make a lot of baskets, and then defenders will give you free throws to shoot. Until that starts happening, it does not pay many dividends to practice shooting your free throws. Unless he can get more attempts, he is looking at adding maybe one more free throw made every other game, on average.


That is a bit of chicken and egg. Do you really want a 50% FT shooter trying to draw fouls and get to the line? In fact, I am surprised more teams don't intentionally foul Brown at the end of close games. You want him to improve his FT shooting before he starts trying to shoot more of them.

I also think underhand is a better solution for a 7' back to the basket center (Wilt or Shaq).

As a PG the biggest improvement Brown could make would be to have a reliable shot from the three point line and from the foul line. I see them as closely related. It is similar shooting mechanics, repetition and confidence. A shooting coach should be able to help with both. Maybe a sports psychologist too. One aspect of practicing free throws is it is not standing at the free throw line with someone rebounding for you and shooting 100 FTs.. it is not catch and shoot. It is getting the ball, walking up to the line, gathering yourself, going through a routine, and shooting, then repeating the entire process 100 times.
Well, there are different strokes for different folks. There is more than one way to teach free throws, and more than one way to practice them. Nothing you can do by walking to a line and shooting and then repeating the process 100 times can simulate what you will do in a game with a crowd yelling at you to miss or make, the pressure, a coach calling a timeout to freeze you, all of it. What you have to do is train your mind to stop thinking, and worrying about the ways you can miss the shot (as Al McGuire said), and you need to practice several free throws in a row, to get confidence in the stroke. The best way to get the confidence to make them in a game is to have experience making them in games.

I was on a free throw shooting team of three players when I was about 11 or 12 years old. We traveled around the city and the bay, competing in matches with other teams. A match consisted of each player shooting 60 free throws. Anatole was our best shooter. He usually made 60 in a row. George was second, and he usually made 57 or 58. I was 3rd, making about 56 or 57. In the matches, I used to get a little bored after I made 40 or 50 in a row, and I would begin to miss occasionally, so I agree with your point about not shooting 100 free throws in practice. When I practiced free throws, I rarely shot more than 10 free throws, unless I missed one or two, then I might take a few more. I often experimented with standing in a different spot, a little to the left or the right. One foot on the line, or 2 feet on the line. And I experimented with different strokes, one hand from the hip, two hand, two hand over hand. Even tried the Hal Greer method of shooting a jump shot free throw. But I never ever used those in a game. I always used the one hand FT, because it was reliable enough.

Anatole, George, and I were also on the same basketball team, and won the league championship. It was odd that I always shot free throws better in games than I did in the FT matches or in practice. I was 24 for 24 in my last year of high school. Some players are better in games than in practice, and that was me. I don't like either of the practice methods you describe, shooting 100 FTs in a row, or walking to the line and going through the routine 100 times in a row. My high school coach, who as I said, was a fine underhand free throw shooter, often had us practice free throws, but we shot only 10 in a row at any one session. Shoot much more than that and boredom and distraction can set in, except for guys like Anatole. I think coach understood that.

As for your chicken and egg, I'm not convinced. If I am Brown, I would wonder this: if I seldom get awarded a free throw in a game, why is the coach asking me to practice free throws? Does he really want me to get one more point every other game (because that is what I'll be giving him if I improve my shooting to 40%), a half a point per game. I sort of agree that he practice threes more, but not too much, because he is starting with such an unorthodox stroke, that I wonder if he can be much more successful with it than he is. I would prefer that he work mid-range to shots in the paint, sort of the Jordan Shepherd toolbox, a player who can score a variety of ways in the 2-point range. His 3 point shooting is no great threat, so he doesn't get fouled much shooting threes. He does get 4.4 FT attempts a game, which is almost 3 times as many as Brown gets.


I don't think free throw and the 3-pointer are similar mechanics. One you are on the move, up in the air with no solid base to shoot from, releasing the shot at the height of your jump (unless your style is similar to Steph Curry, who releases his shot on the way up in his jump), and with little time to think. The free throw is shot from a solid stationary base, with both feet planted on the floor, very little movement.
I preferred practicing shots longer than free throws, from 15 to 35 feet out. The better I got in practice in making those, the more confidence I had to make short jump shots. I shot from a different spot on the floor with each shot. That is the best way to improve, IMO, rather than shoot several shots from one spot, and it simulates game conditions in that aspect.
SFCityBear
HoopDreams
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SFCityBear said:

calumnus said:

SFCityBear said:

drizzlybear said:

SFCityBear said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.


If you look at the original post, it is specifically about the possibility that Brown is already improving his free throws. He has made 67% of his last 12 free throws. As that post says, it's obviously a small sample size, so it could be misleading; but it also could be a sign that he is improving, and could potentially become an adequate (though still not ideal) FT shooter. And that would be huge. And that is the point of the original post.
I understood your original post. I wrote a lengthy post in reply, trying to say, with all due respect to you, that while an improvement in Brown's free throws would be huge, perhaps for him personally, and for his fans who care about his play, but it would not often be huge for the Cal team. He just does not get enough free throw attempts in a game to matter a lot, except in really close games decided by one or two points. And Cal usually loses by more than that. He averages less than two attempts per game. Nobody hardly ever fouls him. Brown is a terrific defender, and does not commit many personal fouls himself, but he commits more personal fouls than people foul him. Over the last two years, he has averaged 1.75 free throw attempts per game, while also fouling opponents at a rate of 2.6 personal fouls per game. He makes free throws at 0.85 per game.

For Brown to make a huge difference in the outcome of Cal games, he has to learn how to draw fouls. The usual way is to make more baskets, or make more assists, perhaps, or break down your defender on the dribble, get into the paint more. The big problem Brown has with this is that he is very fast, and very quick, and defenders can't catch up to him and foul him. They can't foul him much on the dribble, because his handle is too good, too quick. He blows by his man so fast, he leaves him in the dust. If he could finish better and finish more, score more points in the paint, he would start drawing fouls. If he could shoot mid-range shots and make them, he would draw more fouls. If he could make threes, and make more of them (he only shot one three point attempt per game over the last two seasons), then he would draw fouls. He is just too darn quick for most of his defenders, and not yet skilled enough to shoot and score a lot over the bigger defenders. He needs to get better at dishing in the lane, so that defenders will try extra hard to keep him out of the lane, and may have to foul him in the process, and give him free throws to shoot.

So, in my opinion, he has to work on drawing fouls, which is a skill, and work on his shooting from the field. He needs to learn to change speeds, slow down sometimes to sucker a defender into a foul. He has two speeds, fast and faster. You have to give the defender time to foul you. And practice your shooting more. Make a lot of baskets, and then defenders will give you free throws to shoot. Until that starts happening, it does not pay many dividends to practice shooting your free throws. Unless he can get more attempts, he is looking at adding maybe one more free throw made every other game, on average.


That is a bit of chicken and egg. Do you really want a 50% FT shooter trying to draw fouls and get to the line? In fact, I am surprised more teams don't intentionally foul Brown at the end of close games. You want him to improve his FT shooting before he starts trying to shoot more of them.

I also think underhand is a better solution for a 7' back to the basket center (Wilt or Shaq).

As a PG the biggest improvement Brown could make would be to have a reliable shot from the three point line and from the foul line. I see them as closely related. It is similar shooting mechanics, repetition and confidence. A shooting coach should be able to help with both. Maybe a sports psychologist too. One aspect of practicing free throws is it is not standing at the free throw line with someone rebounding for you and shooting 100 FTs.. it is not catch and shoot. It is getting the ball, walking up to the line, gathering yourself, going through a routine, and shooting, then repeating the entire process 100 times.
Well, there are different strokes for different folks. There is more than one way to teach free throws, and more than one way to practice them. Nothing you can do by walking to a line and shooting and then repeating the process 100 times can simulate what you will do in a game with a crowd yelling at you to miss or make, the pressure, a coach calling a timeout to freeze you, all of it. What you have to do is train your mind to stop thinking, and worrying about the ways you can miss the shot (as Al McGuire said), and you need to practice several free throws in a row, to get confidence in the stroke. The best way to get the confidence to make them in a game is to have experience making them in games.

I was on a free throw shooting team of three players when I was about 11 or 12 years old. We traveled around the city and the bay, competing in matches with other teams. A match consisted of each player shooting 60 free throws. Anatole was our best shooter. He usually made 60 in a row. George was second, and he usually made 57 or 58. I was 3rd, making about 56 or 57. In the matches, I used to get a little bored after I made 40 or 50 in a row, and I would begin to miss occasionally, so I agree with your point about not shooting 100 free throws in practice. When I practiced free throws, I rarely shot more than 10 free throws, unless I missed one or two, then I might take a few more. I often experimented with standing in a different spot, a little to the left or the right. One foot on the line, or 2 feet on the line. And I experimented with different strokes, one hand from the hip, two hand, two hand over hand. Even tried the Hal Greer method of shooting a jump shot free throw. But I never ever used those in a game. I always used the one hand FT, because it was reliable enough.

Anatole, George, and I were also on the same basketball team, and won the league championship. It was odd that I always shot free throws better in games than I did in the FT matches or in practice. I was 24 for 24 in my last year of high school. Some players are better in games than in practice, and that was me. I don't like either of the practice methods you describe, shooting 100 FTs in a row, or walking to the line and going through the routine 100 times in a row. My high school coach, who as I said, was a fine underhand free throw shooter, often had us practice free throws, but we shot only 10 in a row at any one session. Shoot much more than that and boredom and distraction can set in, except for guys like Anatole. I think coach understood that.

As for your chicken and egg, I'm not convinced. If I am Brown, I would wonder this: if I seldom get awarded a free throw in a game, why is the coach asking me to practice free throws? Does he really want me to get one more point every other game (because that is what I'll be giving him if I improve my shooting to 40%), a half a point per game. I sort of agree that he practice threes more, but not too much, because he is starting with such an unorthodox stroke, that I wonder if he can be much more successful with it than he is. I would prefer that he work mid-range to shots in the paint, sort of the Jordan Shepherd toolbox, a player who can score a variety of ways in the 2-point range. His 3 point shooting is no great threat, so he doesn't get fouled much shooting threes. He does get 4.4 FT attempts a game, which is almost 3 times as many as Brown gets.


I don't think free throw and the 3-pointer are similar mechanics. One you are on the move, up in the air with no solid base to shoot from, releasing the shot at the height of your jump (unless your style is similar to Steph Curry, who releases his shot on the way up in his jump), and with little time to think. The free throw is shot from a solid stationary base, with both feet planted on the floor, very little movement.
I preferred practicing shots longer than free throws, from 15 to 35 feet out. The better I got in practice in making those, the more confidence I had to make short jump shots. I shot from a different spot on the floor with each shot. That is the best way to improve, IMO, rather than shoot several shots from one spot, and it simulates game conditions in that aspect.
those FT percentages are incredible, and shooting 24-24 in games is even more incredible

drizzlybear
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SFCityBear said:

drizzlybear said:

SFCityBear said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why we are discussing this. Joel Brown is a player who takes less than one three point attempt (0.9) per game. He shoots them at a .325 clip (career), making a little below one out three, so on average, he makes one every 3 or 4 games. Over his career, his threes have been almost irrelevant. This year, he has been making them well below his usual percentage, so it would be wise for him to take even less attempts, as taking the same or more than usual would not be helping the team.

We had a point guard, Paris Austin, who also did not make threes very often, which we discussed, but not as much as we have discussed Brown's threes. Actually, Brown had a much better percentage than Austin, who shot them at .255 at Cal. And Austin also did not have many attempts, averaging 0.9 per game as well. Another point we had was Ty Wallace. Wallace shot threes at .292, better than Austin, but not as good as Brown's career average. The thing that bugged me about Wallace (and Cuonzo) was that Wallace took too many attempts (3.1 per game, or 4.0 per 40 min) for someone with a low percentage of success. Take that many and you are not helping your team.

Improving one's three point shooting is very iffy. It is a long shot, making it a low percentage shot, compared to most. But typically a player only shoots a couple of three point attempts in a game, so he hardly gets warmed up. The great ones, like Larry Bird or Steph Curry are shooting them all game long, so they are warmed up. They often hit 3 or 4 in a row, or more. Part time players like Jeff Powers or Nick Kerr are just good shots. They come off the bench and bingo, they hit their first (and sometimes only) shot. And they do that most of the time. They need hardly any warmup. So imagine a guy like Joel Brown, who might take a three after being in the game say, 5 minutes, or instead, maybe he's played 25 minutes of running, driving, passing rebounding, playing defense, and now he has an opening to take a three. Very different scenarios, and very hard to prepare for. The other thing is good shooters are born with an eye. You can tell by the 5th or 6th grade if a kid can shoot or not. I'm sure there are examples of players who can become better three point shooters beginning as a freshman in college who can't shoot threes, but I can't think of any at the moment.

Brown is a very poor free throw shooter for a guard at .468 career. That, IMO, is the shot he should be working on, because even if he never takes another three, he will get a couple of free throw attempts in games, and if he could improve that, it would help the team a little. Plus, it is easier for most shorter players at least to improve free throws than improve three point shooting. The distance is shorter, and no one is guarding you when you shoot them in a game. Nothing much to be concerned with other than your stroke and your mind, and of course, your confidence.


If you look at the original post, it is specifically about the possibility that Brown is already improving his free throws. He has made 67% of his last 12 free throws. As that post says, it's obviously a small sample size, so it could be misleading; but it also could be a sign that he is improving, and could potentially become an adequate (though still not ideal) FT shooter. And that would be huge. And that is the point of the original post.
I understood your original post. I wrote a lengthy post in reply, trying to say, with all due respect to you, that while an improvement in Brown's free throws would be huge, perhaps for him personally, and for his fans who care about his play, but it would not often be huge for the Cal team. He just does not get enough free throw attempts in a game to matter a lot, except in really close games decided by one or two points. And Cal usually loses by more than that. He averages less than two attempts per game. Nobody hardly ever fouls him. Brown is a terrific defender, and does not commit many personal fouls himself, but he commits more personal fouls than people foul him. Over the last two years, he has averaged 1.75 free throw attempts per game, while also fouling opponents at a rate of 2.6 personal fouls per game. He makes free throws at 0.85 per game.

For Brown to make a huge difference in the outcome of Cal games, he has to learn how to draw fouls. The usual way is to make more baskets, or make more assists, perhaps, or break down your defender on the dribble, get into the paint more. The big problem Brown has with this is that he is very fast, and very quick, and defenders can't catch up to him and foul him. They can't foul him much on the dribble, because his handle is too good, too quick. He blows by his man so fast, he leaves him in the dust. If he could finish better and finish more, score more points in the paint, he would start drawing fouls. If he could shoot mid-range shots and make them, he would draw more fouls. If he could make threes, and make more of them (he only shot one three point attempt per game over the last two seasons), then he would draw fouls. He is just too darn quick for most of his defenders, and not yet skilled enough to shoot and score a lot over the bigger defenders. He needs to get better at dishing in the lane, so that defenders will try extra hard to keep him out of the lane, and may have to foul him in the process, and give him free throws to shoot.

So, in my opinion, he has to work on drawing fouls, which is a skill, and work on his shooting from the field. He needs to learn to change speeds, slow down sometimes to sucker a defender into a foul. He has two speeds, fast and faster. You have to give the defender time to foul you. And practice your shooting more. Make a lot of baskets, and then defenders will give you free throws to shoot. Until that starts happening, it does not pay many dividends to practice shooting your free throws. Unless he can get more attempts, he is looking at adding maybe one more free throw made every other game,
on average.

The biggest problem with Brown's poor FT shooting isn't the points lost during a game when he misses a free throw, it's the inability to have the team's PG on the floor in crunch time. That's a huge problem. (When we had Jerome Randle it was an incredible asset.)
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