OT: Official Warriors vs Nuggets Playoff Series Thread

20,349 Views | 226 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by ducky23
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearSD said:

oskidunker said:

Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.
Warriors definitely need another big man. Look at how many offensive rebounds the Nuggets got in the last two games. A better opponent will not only get that many offensive rebounds, but they will convert them into more points than Denver did.

They played small in crunch time last night in MEMPHIS and still won, even without Draymond and Refs that were repeatedly blind. - - - That possession "non-call" with the ball going out of bounds off of Brooks with 10 seconds left in the game was horrible!

Cut down on the turnovers and the silly reach in fouls and they will be in every single game.




BearSD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The rebounding effort in game 1 was great. Over the long haul, though, relying on two or three guards to be monster rebounders is not sustainable.

The roster management trick for the Warriors next season will be adding another big man who plays defense and rebounds at a price that is affordable, preferably on a one or two year contract. Wiseman is probably not the answer, and even Joe Lacob will have to admit that eventually.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearSD said:

The rebounding effort in game 1 was great. Over the long haul, though, relying on two or three guards to be monster rebounders is not sustainable.

The roster management trick for the Warriors next season will be adding another big man who plays defense and rebounds at a price that is affordable, preferably on a one or two year contract. Wiseman is probably not the answer, and even Joe Lacob will have to admit that eventually.

A.) I get what youre saying, but on offense the taller rebounders cant guard the little guys.
They also tend to get back "late" on defense too.

B.) I read over the weekend in the Chronicle that if they try and keep GP2 and sign him at the mid-level exemption of roughly $10 million, the added luxury tax will triple that figure and the payroll of the Dubs will be over $500 million. Not sure who they could sign as a "big" for bread crumbs.
philbert
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags said:

BearSD said:

The rebounding effort in game 1 was great. Over the long haul, though, relying on two or three guards to be monster rebounders is not sustainable.

The roster management trick for the Warriors next season will be adding another big man who plays defense and rebounds at a price that is affordable, preferably on a one or two year contract. Wiseman is probably not the answer, and even Joe Lacob will have to admit that eventually.

A.) I get what youre saying, but on offense the taller rebounders cant guard the little guys.
They also tend to get back "late" on defense too.

B.) I read over the weekend in the Chronicle that if they try and keep GP2 and sign him at the mid-level exemption of roughly $10 million, the added luxury tax will triple that figure and the payroll of the Dubs will be over $500 million. Not sure who they could sign as a "big" for bread crumbs.

Really depends on how much someone else is willing to offer GP2. I'm not convinced another team would offer him more than his early-bird right numbers at 10.5M/year. In any case, if GS did sign him at that number, they could use the taxpayer's MLE at around $6M to bring in a FA. The question is what big man out there fits? They won't bring in any big body. It's possible they will draft a big man this year too.
ducky23
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearSD said:

The rebounding effort in game 1 was great. Over the long haul, though, relying on two or three guards to be monster rebounders is not sustainable.

The roster management trick for the Warriors next season will be adding another big man who plays defense and rebounds at a price that is affordable, preferably on a one or two year contract. Wiseman is probably not the answer, and even Joe Lacob will have to admit that eventually.


Look, if you're talking about just signing a big for the regular season who can absorb some draymond mins at the 5, I'm all for that (though in theory that's something wiseman should be able to do - if healthy).

But if you're talking about getting a big who can get into the playoff rotation, it's logistically extremely difficult. That's something you may just have to accept at some point.

Again, the warriors, as currently constructed, are amazing offensively because they can play 5 out (with draymond being the QB at the top of the key). This opens up the paint which allows for back cuts, etc.

For a big to be able to play alongside draymond in the playoffs in the closing lineup they would have to do all of the following: be able to switch and defend perimeter players, rebound and be able to stretch the floor as a three point threat.

You will not find a big who can do that at the vet min. It's will be extremely difficult to find a big who can do that at the MLE (who is also better than porter because dubs want to use MLE on him)

You could trade for this mythical big. You're not trading any of the young guys. Maybe just maybe you get a team who wants wiggins expiring contract. Maybe myles turner for wiggins and a 1st rounder. Maybe. But that's unlikely.

So that's the options. Maybe they find someone who is willing to take a pay cut and take the MLE. But again, for them to be useful, they'd have to be more effective than either looney, porter or wiseman.
BearSD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
More effective than Porter or Wiseman is not a high bar to clear.

Even if Wiseman can ever be healthy over the course of a season, he would be as inexperienced as a rookie next season, and unlikely to get more minutes (especially from Kerr, who doesn't trust rookies in general and even more so in the playoffs) than Kuminga or Moody has played this season.

Needs to be someone who would play a lot of regular season minutes, and enough playoff minutes to (a) give Draymond a rest and (b) use some of their fouls on the other team's bigs so that Draymond doesn't foul out or get into early foul trouble. Doesn't have to be someone who would be in the closing lineup.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It would clearly have to be someone who has excellent hands and knows how to pass the ball off to the moving parts of the team.
Big C
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearSD said:

More effective than Porter or Wiseman is not a high bar to clear.

Even if Wiseman can ever be healthy over the course of a season, he would be as inexperienced as a rookie next season, and unlikely to get more minutes (especially from Kerr, who doesn't trust rookies in general and even more so in the playoffs) than Kuminga or Moody has played this season.

Needs to be someone who would play a lot of regular season minutes, and enough playoff minutes to (a) give Draymond a rest and (b) use some of their fouls on the other team's bigs so that Draymond doesn't foul out or get into early foul trouble. Doesn't have to be someone who would be in the closing lineup.

I hope Wiseman doesn't become "Old Man Odom, Jr", but I'm afraid that's where it might be headed.
BearForce2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags said:

THIS CLOWN IS INCOMPETENT!




He looks familiar.
oskidunker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Warriors look like they win game 2. Memphis has one player. If he ever goes cold, they will get blown out.
Go Bears!
bearister
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Goal tend of Steph shot followed by a no foul foul call on Draymond. Refs have been told not to allow a sweep.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
BulaBear3cubs
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Totally agree, did not see a foul on Green. Losing Payton for the series would be really tough. Need his D on Morant.
Big C
How long do you want to ignore this user?

Morant, wow, that guy...
ducky23
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Morant is good. But it's also a lot easier to go against Poole than GP2

Duck players are dirty
philbert
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ugh


sonofabear51
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And so is Memphis as a whole.
ducky23
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I actually completely forgot GP2 went to Oregon state. Wow

Oregon state fans must be livid with brooks right now

It would be like some Stanford scrub taking out Jorge in the playoffs
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ducky23 said:


Again, the warriors, as currently constructed, are amazing offensively because they can play 5 out (with draymond being the QB at the top of the key). This opens up the paint which allows for back cuts, etc.



Except that style of play can't work when MF thug like Dillon Brooks ends the season of his one-time Oregon-Oregon State rival Gary Payton Ii.

Brooks needs to be suspended for at least 5 games.
That was reprehensible.
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Big C said:

BearSD said:

More effective than Porter or Wiseman is not a high bar to clear.

Even if Wiseman can ever be healthy over the course of a season, he would be as inexperienced as a rookie next season, and unlikely to get more minutes (especially from Kerr, who doesn't trust rookies in general and even more so in the playoffs) than Kuminga or Moody has played this season.

Needs to be someone who would play a lot of regular season minutes, and enough playoff minutes to (a) give Draymond a rest and (b) use some of their fouls on the other team's bigs so that Draymond doesn't foul out or get into early foul trouble. Doesn't have to be someone who would be in the closing lineup.

I hope Wiseman doesn't become "Old Man Odom, Jr", but I'm afraid that's where it might be headed.


Old man, huh.
Wow.
Kid just turned 21 a month ago and has been plagued by injuries.

"The bread is in the oven. Let it bake."
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I spent all night wondering who we might have on roster that could break Dillon Brooks' arm in the event the nba let's him return for this series.
BearSD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
concordtom said:

I spent all night wondering who we might have on roster that could break Dillon Brooks' arm in the event the nba let's him return for this series.
That incident does seem to cry out for some old school NHL-style enforcement. Put someone like Bjelica in the game to issue a few hard fouls.

The NBA office is usually tone-deaf about these things, so expect that Brooks will get, at most, a one-game suspension, and probably the most likely outcome is that the league just upholds Brooks' Flagrant 2 foul and leaves it at that.

concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearSD said:

concordtom said:

I spent all night wondering who we might have on roster that could break Dillon Brooks' arm in the event the nba let's him return for this series.
That incident does seem to cry out for some old school NHL-style enforcement. Put someone like Bjelica in the game to issue a few hard fouls.

The NBA office is usually tone-deaf about these things, so expect that Brooks will get, at most, a one-game suspension, and probably the most likely outcome is that the league just upholds Brooks' Flagrant 2 foul and leaves it at that.



Agreed.
But Memphis is trying to take away something the Warriors have. And if Brooks gets back on the court, then the W's have to stand up and not let Memphis take it. Not like that!

I want a 5 full game suspension, else….

Big C
How long do you want to ignore this user?
concordtom said:

Big C said:

BearSD said:

More effective than Porter or Wiseman is not a high bar to clear.

Even if Wiseman can ever be healthy over the course of a season, he would be as inexperienced as a rookie next season, and unlikely to get more minutes (especially from Kerr, who doesn't trust rookies in general and even more so in the playoffs) than Kuminga or Moody has played this season.

Needs to be someone who would play a lot of regular season minutes, and enough playoff minutes to (a) give Draymond a rest and (b) use some of their fouls on the other team's bigs so that Draymond doesn't foul out or get into early foul trouble. Doesn't have to be someone who would be in the closing lineup.

I hope Wiseman doesn't become "Old Man Odom, Jr", but I'm afraid that's where it might be headed.


Old man, huh.
Wow.
Kid just turned 21 a month ago and has been plagued by injuries.

"The bread is in the oven. Let it bake."

Greg Odom (not Lamar Odom) looked like a can't miss 7-0 center when he came into the NBA after one year at Ohio State. But right away he started getting knee injuries and pretty soon, while still in his early 20s, he was playing on "old wheels" and didn't end up lasting very long.

Big guys sometimes break down early (see Walton, Bill). Hopefully Wiseman recovers from this and has a good career (with the Warriors, please!), but it's not a good sign that he had meniscus surgery -- usually not a huge, huge deal -- and they've kept having to push back his return and now it's been over a year.

James Wiseman seems like a great guy and I'm pulling for him to make a 100% recovery, but it's not a given that he will be able to. I would say likely, but not a given by any means.
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ah, my bad.
I forgot about Greg, was only thinking of Lamar's career, which was lengthy - despite his risky and eye popping personal lifestyle.

I recall the Odom-Durant draft. I was in an ncaa betting pool around that time and had been watching an insane amount of college hoops to analyze individual players and teams for our ncaa tournament player draft. (10 drafters, snake draft 10 rounds, most total points scored in the tournament wins, awesome!)

Kevin Durant as a TX freshman was AMAZING!!
And I couldn't believe hearing people (like Danny Ainge) say, "but you've gotta take Odom, right"?

I was like "No Way!"

Ever hear Bobby Knight tell the story of some team with a high draft pick ask his advice?
"Take Jordan!"
"But we don't need a guard."
"Take Jordan!!!"
But…"

Me: "Take Durant!"
Because 10 years later, I won't even remember Greg Odom's name!
BearSD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearSD said:

concordtom said:

I spent all night wondering who we might have on roster that could break Dillon Brooks' arm in the event the nba let's him return for this series.
That incident does seem to cry out for some old school NHL-style enforcement. Put someone like Bjelica in the game to issue a few hard fouls.

The NBA office is usually tone-deaf about these things, so expect that Brooks will get, at most, a one-game suspension, and probably the most likely outcome is that the league just upholds Brooks' Flagrant 2 foul and leaves it at that.
As predicted: One-game suspension for Brooks.

That's not enough. That's not justice.
oskidunker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
They beat the warriors without him. If Thompson doesn't play better, they will beat them again, but I doubt it.
Go Bears!
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
oskidunker said:

They beat the warriors without him. If Thompson doesn't play better, they will beat them again, but I doubt it.
I've said from the start that I think Memphis will win the series.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but especially after seeing Ja go off on W's without Payton, knowing Payton ain't coming back, and Brooks will be back for games 4/5/6/7, the scale tilts their way.

I think the W's have a size deficit, and I think the regular season taught teams how to defend Steph. In a 7 game series, I think other teams can figure it out.
Poole rising lately has thrown in an additional wild card. Here's hoping that carries the day. But Memphis has a lot of good players, youth, and a bonafide star. They also have the better record, and have won 5 out of the last 7.

This series could show the old men of the W's being replaced by younger stars. A passing of the torch. Too bad it had to come with an A*hole player wiping out one of our weapons. For that reason alone, I hope we crush their f'ing nuts!
ducky23
How long do you want to ignore this user?
concordtom said:

oskidunker said:

They beat the warriors without him. If Thompson doesn't play better, they will beat them again, but I doubt it.
I've said from the start that I think Memphis will win the series.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but especially after seeing Ja go off on W's without Payton, knowing Payton ain't coming back, and Brooks will be back for games 4/5/6/7, the scale tilts their way.

I think the W's have a size deficit, and I think the regular season taught teams how to defend Steph. In a 7 game series, I think other teams can figure it out.
Poole rising lately has thrown in an additional wild card. Here's hoping that carries the day. But Memphis has a lot of good players, youth, and a bonafide star. They also have the better record, and have won 5 out of the last 7.

This series could show the old men of the W's being replaced by younger stars. A passing of the torch. Too bad it had to come with an A*hole player wiping out one of our weapons. For that reason alone, I hope we crush their f'ing nuts!


If you really believe Memphis is going to win, now is a good time to bet.

The series odds started at -200 warriors to win series. . It's now at -275 (which is roughly 75% probability).
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I never bet.
What does that mean, bet 100 to win 275?

PS: espn's BPI this morning says Memphis wins series, 54% to 46% for W's.
ducky23
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yikes. You're not going to make a lot of money using BPI as your betting model. They use regular season numbers which has very little relevance to a playoff series like Memphis/GS. Just as a brief example, does BPI take into account specific matchups, the fact GP2 is out, the fact that bane is hurt or that brooks is suspended for a game? No.

Betting odds obviously aren't infallible, but in my opinion it's the most accurate for the simple reason that there are actual stakes involved. You post bad lines and the sharps are going to put you out of business.

Now a lot of people will say betting lines are less about accuracy and more about getting even money on both sides. Thats kinda true but a little misleading. It's complicated, but I'll try to summarise simply.

Opening lines are set based on a combination of stats, models and seeing where the initial sharp money is gojng. Different books have different philosophies to setting an opening line

The goal of lines are also different from book to book. Some are conservative and set lines based on evening the money on both sides. Some are more aggressive and believe if they have an edge for a certain game they will set lines to their advantage, even if money is unbalanced. Some books will error strongly on where the sharp money is going, regardless of where the dumb money is going.

But in general, the final line is typically the best predictor you're going to get for the simple reason that the sharps have sharpened the line to create as little margin as possible.

And yes, to answer your question I've seen books with Memphis +275 which means $100 wins you $275. And just think about it, if sharps believed Espn's BPI was at all accurate, they wold have dumped everything into a spread like that. Sharps are happy if they think they are getting a 3-5% advantage. The difference between the spread and BPI is over 20%.
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Thx
I liked reading the varying odds on this page.
E.G.: If Memphis wins in 6, $1000!

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-playoffs-series-odds-grizzlies-vs-warriors-round-2-schedule/amp
oski003
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Article by a Cal Alum

https://www.sfgate.com/warriors/amp/Stephen-A-Smith-calls-out-Warriors-Klay-Thompson-17156642.php
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
So glad I was wrong about game 3.
What a turn around!
Big C
How long do you want to ignore this user?

Warriors, playing a team w/o by far their bast player, are down something like 230-55. I bet the Sacramento Kings are excited to start their dynasty with Mike Brown as Head Coach!
oskidunker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I cant believe Kerr out is the reason they were blown out.they better win game 6. Or it is over.
Go Bears!
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.