Ok here's what I see as the keys to the series
- Guarding Luka: Ok, so the Mavs run 5 out (unless Powell is playing) and their whole strategy is to use the entire shot clock to hunt mismatches and then iso Luka and have him go 1 on 1 with the court completely spread. If someone over helps, then Luka will kick to the open shooter. Rinse and repeat. What the Warriors will do (and what they have always done whether its Lebron, Harden or Jokic) is they will let Luka get his and try to make sure no one else gets open looks.
Can Luka beat the Warriors by himself? Maybe, but I doubt it. Look, Luka is really really good. But is he this unstoppable force that people are making him out to be? No. I think all this talk about Luka is a lot of recency bias. He had an amazing game 7. But his true shooting percentage for the playoffs is .587%. Which is good, but nothing unsurmountable. As a comparison, Steph's is .601%, Poole is .637% and Jokic is .643%. If you can make Luka a high usage shooter and take away everyone else, the Mavs cannot win. Where things get dicey is if Brunson/Dinwiddie are beating their man off the dribble, and everyone else is draining open corner 3's.
Who is going to guard Luka? Probably the people you expect (Wiggins, Klay, Draymond), they will try to switch Poole/Steph onto him, but I think the Warriors need to be stubborn and either hedge/go under/or fight thru screens. I think Klay is going to be more effective against Luka than people think. Yes, he's lost a step defensively (maybe 2 or 3 steps), but you don't need quickness to guard Luka. You need to be tough, smart and rugged. You can't let him back you down and you can't fall for his pump fakes. Klay can still do that. If you force him into step back threes or turn around mid rangers, you've won.
Luka also had a lot of success against Phoenix because they had no one who could guard him. CP3, Booker and Bridges are all too small. Going against Wiggin/Klay/Draymond will be much more challenging.
- Extra possessions: This is always the key with the Warriors; turnovers and rebounds. The Mavs don't turn the ball over, but they also don't create a lot of turnovers. They were 22nd in the league in forcing turnovers, whereas Memphis was #1. They are also dead last of the 16 playoff teams in offensive rebounds (whereas we all know Memphis was #1 during the regular season). So as long as they keep turnovers to a somewhat reasonable rate, the Warriors should be able to keep the possession game close to even (which for the Warriors is a huge win).
- Tiring out Luka: The best defense against Luka is to take his legs out. Lets see him back people down in the post without his legs. The Mavs haven't faced an offense like the warriors. They are constantly moving, constantly screening and cutting. The Mavs will try to hide Luka on Wiggins. that will work if the Warriors allow that to work. The Mavs will be fine if the Warriors just iso Wiggins on Luka. What needs to happen is that whoever Luka is guarding, they need to be constantly screening off ball. Force Luka to make decisions. Force him to switch and run around trying to chase Steph, Klay, Poole. Morant couldn't do it. That's why Memphis' defense got so good without Morant. Cause he kept getting lost on defense. Put Luka in the same position. Make him earn everything on that side of the ball. Make him box out, make him fight thru screens, make him run. Make him make smart defensive decisions. His one weakness is his stamina. Wear him out.
- Points in the paint: Ok, this is what's going to decide this series. No kidding. Its not Luka and not how many threes Steph or Klay make. Its how many points the Warriors can score in the paint. This is going to determine if its an easy 5 game series or a potential Mavericks victory.
First, we need to understand how the Mavs have been so effective on defense. The Mavs basically have two lockdown defenders (Finney-Smith/Bullock) and the rest are average to subpar defenders. They literally have no other decent defenders (except maybe Powell who we will get to later). So what Kidd does is he takes away the opposing team's two best perimeter options (you will see a lot of Steph getting trapped) with his lockdown guys and the rest of the team plays smart defense with good rotations.
But they have a very glaring weakness. The underbelly of their defense is soft. They have zero paint protection. Of the 16 playoff teams, they are 2nd to last in blocked shots. They survive because their two lockdown perimeter players can usually keep the opposition out of the paint. But if you can get by them, who is going to protect the paint? Kleber? Bertans? Luka? Their only interior defensive presence is Powell, but he's not playable for long stretches because he's an offensive liability (you can't play 5 out with Powell on offense. When Powell plays, either Draymond or Looney can guard him and help on Luka in the paint).
Ok, now lets switch over to the Warriors. The not so secret "secret" behind their success is that they get so many easy buckets in the paint. That's how they win. Its not the threes. Its the threat of the three that creates easy layups. Memphis was able to take that away because they have a bunch of 6'9 athletes to guard the perimeter and if you get by them, you still have to get by JJJ and Adams.
Ok so if Dallas has no interior defense, how were they able to beat Utah and Phoenix. They locked down the two best players and made the third guy try to beat them. Look at Utah, if you take out Mitchell/Clarkson, who is going to drive on you? Old man conley? Bogdonavic? How about if you take out CP3/Booker? Is Bridges going to beat you by driving? lol.
So the key is whether the Warriors have a third scoring option who is able to attack the rim. I think they do. Lets say you put finney-smith on Steph and Bullock on Klay. Who will guard Poole? Who will guard Kuminga? Brunson? Luca? Dinwiddie? Poole only started to struggle against Denver when they started putting Gordon on him. He started to struggle against Memphis once he couldn't pick on Morant and they put the twin towers in the paint. But against Dallas? If Poole (or Kuminga or even Wiggins) can get by their initial defender, they have very little resistance in the paint. I think either Poole or Kuminga can really start cooking. And if that happens, its game over.
So this is the KEY to the entire series. Finney-smith and Bullock aren't leaving steph and klay. they just aren't. That opens up the rest of the floor. If the Warriors have a third scorer who can beat their defender and attack the paint, it opens up everything else. Its like in football, where you just gotta keep running up the middle. Attack that paint. Even if its Draymond. Be aggressive. Draw fouls. Get layups. And then that's when you start raining threes.
