March Madness is one of the great sporting events in the world. Specifically the unpredictable upset joy ion the first two weekends lends an air of magic. I expect to see the SEC and B1G ruin the NCAA tournament in the next three years.

First, the SEC and B1G will break away from the NCAA for football. Within a few years, the football playoff will exclusively feature B1g and SEC teams.

Then the power-2 come for the basketball tournament. Don't underestimate the greed and power and the temptation of the tournament TV contract. The power-2 will overpay for the good coaches and then argue that they are carrying all the weaker basketball programs. I could see Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren proposing a new format.

• reduce to 40 teams
• 30 of the 40 slots must go to power-2 teams
• the top 4 teams from the super power leagues all get a first weekend bye.
• the other leagues and power-2 with mediocre records can have a 32-team play-in weekend for the right to play against the best of SEC and B1G
• 80% of the revenue would go to the SEC and B1G

You might argue that the commissioners won't screw up the basketball tournament golden goose. But they just sank the Pac-10 and created an unworkable travel hardship for the $C and ucla olympic sports. Will the trojan and bruin baseball and softball teams just move to the midwest for the season ?

depressed about the demise of Cal football and fearing the future for all college sports.

It's depressing that this is a possible outcome.

RJABear said:

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March Madness is one of the great sporting events in the world. Specifically the unpredictable upset joy ion the first two weekends lends an air of magic. I expect to see the SEC and B1G ruin the NCAA tournament in the next three years.

First, the SEC and B1G will break away from the NCAA for football. Within a few years, the football playoff will exclusively feature B1g and SEC teams.

Then the power-2 come for the basketball tournament. Don't underestimate the greed and power and the temptation of the tournament TV contract. The power-2 will overpay for the good coaches and then argue that they are carrying all the weaker basketball programs. I could see Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren proposing a new format.

• reduce to 40 teams
• 30 of the 40 slots must go to power-2 teams
• the top 4 teams from the super power leagues all get a first weekend bye.
• the other leagues and power-2 with mediocre records can have a 32-team play-in weekend for the right to play against the best of SEC and B1G
• 80% of the revenue would go to the SEC and B1G

You might argue that the commissioners won't screw up the basketball tournament golden goose. But they just sank the Pac-10 and created an unworkable travel hardship for the $C and ucla olympic sports. Will the trojan and bruin baseball and softball teams just move to the midwest for the season ?

depressed about the demise of Cal football and fearing the future for all college sports.

---

The glory of the NCAA Tournament is all the mid-majors with a shot. All conference champs are in.

If the SEC and B1G try to take over the NCAA Tournament for their own benefit they will be hit with a huge class action antitrust suit with the possibility of treble damages. I just don't see it happening. They will control football, but schools have basketball without football.

Latest Big Ten Expansion May Be The NCAA's Death Knell - Duke Basketball Report

Duke fans fear the same thing ...

If want some insight about what might happen, watch the ESPN 30 for 30 episode on the history and demise of the Big East, a basketball conference that was essentially destroyed by expanding in order to accommodate the needs of members that were also playing Division I football. Even the most blue blood basketball schools (Kansas, Kentucky, etc.) make more money from football, if they play it in Division I, than from basketball.

I'm confident there will be more conference re-alignment and it makes me very hopeful for the future:

1. I think pretty short term (next few years). College Football will take two forms. One that includes the top forty or fifty teams that breaks away from NCAA, is driven by media partners and is basically the NFL second division - but with an affiliation that includes those schools. It all about the money and the school affiliation is window dressing (and may go away). It may or may not be dominated by two or three 'super' conferences.

The second form is the remaining schools from existing power conferences that don't get invited, but choose to maintain a football program similar to the remaining FCS schools (about 80 of them?). The NCAA may continue to be part of it, but at a much lesser level of financial focus. Who knows, maybe it becomes the effective free minor league of the minor league. Decades ago a large number of schools (i.e. the WCC bay area schools) shut down their football programs. My long term guess is that FCS remainders will mostly dissolve over the next couple decades as athletic departments adapt to disconnecting from Football finances.

2. Non-revenue sports will continue under a less corrupted NCAA. Still lots of issues around Title IX and funding, but will likely maintain the traditional college feel (and lack of money). NIL will be less pervasive, but will likely be impactful and may 'save' some college sports like Golf, Swimming, Tennis and Baseball - where NIL may have some market value (thinking the next Natalie Coughlan).

3. NCAA Basketball is the fun one. It is the other revenue sport and the NCAA cash cow. the scope allows smaller athletic departments to compete. NIL will impact this sport probably more than others. It could go the way of football and consolidate to a much more independent elite. Maybe it stays the same - since it doesn't have quite the fiscal disparity that football does. Maybe it reverts to a non-revenue sport and the G-league replaces it as a minor league for the NBA.

Interesting to see how Cal plays out in these scenarios. It is clear they are committed to the Non-revenue sports and the college feel. They are desperate for Football, primarily because of a stadium debt issue. They've already given up on basketball and are clearly waiting for it to devolve to non-revenue status.

calumnus said:

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RJABear said:

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March Madness is one of the great sporting events in the world. Specifically the unpredictable upset joy ion the first two weekends lends an air of magic. I expect to see the SEC and B1G ruin the NCAA tournament in the next three years.

First, the SEC and B1G will break away from the NCAA for football. Within a few years, the football playoff will exclusively feature B1g and SEC teams.

Then the power-2 come for the basketball tournament. Don't underestimate the greed and power and the temptation of the tournament TV contract. The power-2 will overpay for the good coaches and then argue that they are carrying all the weaker basketball programs. I could see Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren proposing a new format.

• reduce to 40 teams
• 30 of the 40 slots must go to power-2 teams
• the top 4 teams from the super power leagues all get a first weekend bye.
• the other leagues and power-2 with mediocre records can have a 32-team play-in weekend for the right to play against the best of SEC and B1G
• 80% of the revenue would go to the SEC and B1G

You might argue that the commissioners won't screw up the basketball tournament golden goose. But they just sank the Pac-10 and created an unworkable travel hardship for the $C and ucla olympic sports. Will the trojan and bruin baseball and softball teams just move to the midwest for the season ?

depressed about the demise of Cal football and fearing the future for all college sports.

---

The glory of the NCAA Tournament is all the mid-majors with a shot. All conference champs are in.

If the SEC and B1G try to take over the NCAA Tournament for their own benefit they will be hit with a huge class action antitrust suit with the possibility of treble damages. I just don't see it happening. They will control football, but schools have basketball without football.

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The NCAA is an industry association. There is no requirement for the NCAA to host the tournament - if there were a lawsuit it would be against the NCAA for monopolistic behavior, and it would be a winner. I hold out no hope for the NCAA to come riding to the rescue. They can continue to keep the March Madness language, etc. But just like the NIT, the NCAA tournament can come crashing down. The tournament is simply an invitational.

As a matter of fact, it may be that the NCAA denies those schools from the March tournament since they are no longer NCAA affiliated schools. That could be the result. Gonzaga win's it's first National Championship. So if they have their own tournament, who can say who the rightful National Champ is. Same thing with football. Go on their own. The NCAA could now have a division 1A which plays for a NCAA sanctioned playoff and crowns a football victor. They are the schools who still keep professionalism outside of their sports, etc. Two different models. If they NCAA is to survive, that is the tact they will have to take.

BeachedBear said:

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I'm confident there will be more conference re-alignment and it makes me very hopeful for the future:

1. I think pretty short term (next few years). College Football will take two forms. One that includes the top forty or fifty teams that breaks away from NCAA, is driven by media partners and is basically the NFL second division - but with an affiliation that includes those schools. It all about the money and the school affiliation is window dressing (and may go away). It may or may not be dominated by two or three 'super' conferences.

The second form is the remaining schools from existing power conferences that don't get invited, but choose to maintain a football program similar to the remaining FCS schools (about 80 of them?). The NCAA may continue to be part of it, but at a much lesser level of financial focus. Who knows, maybe it becomes the effective free minor league of the minor league. Decades ago a large number of schools (i.e. the WCC bay area schools) shut down their football programs. My long term guess is that FCS remainders will mostly dissolve over the next couple decades as athletic departments adapt to disconnecting from Football finances.

2. Non-revenue sports will continue under a less corrupted NCAA. Still lots of issues around Title IX and funding, but will likely maintain the traditional college feel (and lack of money). NIL will be less pervasive, but will likely be impactful and may 'save' some college sports like Golf, Swimming, Tennis and Baseball - where NIL may have some market value (thinking the next Natalie Coughlan).

3. NCAA Basketball is the fun one. It is the other revenue sport and the NCAA cash cow. the scope allows smaller athletic departments to compete. NIL will impact this sport probably more than others. It could go the way of football and consolidate to a much more independent elite. Maybe it stays the same - since it doesn't have quite the fiscal disparity that football does. Maybe it reverts to a non-revenue sport and the G-league replaces it as a minor league for the NBA.

Interesting to see how Cal plays out in these scenarios. It is clear they are committed to the Non-revenue sports and the college feel. They are desperate for Football, primarily because of a stadium debt issue. They've already given up on basketball and are clearly waiting for it to devolve to non-revenue status.

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I think the regional "all sports" conferences will become less viable, especially in the West with our long travel distances. Football will follow its own path. A good example is Hawaii, they are in the MWC for football but all their other sports, including men's basketball, are the California based Big West.

I think the primacy of the NCAA Tournament for college basketball, plus weekday games, makes smaller, regional conferences preferable. I am pretty sure UCLA and USC were perfectly happy with the PAC-12 for basketball.

So I think the norm will be regional conferences for everything but football. With football in whatever is the best football conference you can get into.

Football may even be separated from the university and run by an alumni/booster organization that pays the players. That will solve the universities' "employee problem" and TITLE IX problem. Cal will no longer need to have a field hockey program filled with recruits from the East Coast, playing in an a East Coast League to balance football scholarships. It will be NIL that pays for the football scholarships (and then some). They will be "students with jobs." The number of sports will shrink somewhat. The number of scholarships offered may shrink, but not much else will change apart from the huge changes in college football.

I think it would take an act of Congress, but Ideally football eventually moves to a nationwide system broken up into regions, with multiple divisions in each region and placement in each division determined by W/L and promotion and relegation. Then the market would determine your your placement and schedule, with hope to eventually move up. Top teams from each region play in a post season tournament to determine the national championship.

Bobodeluxe said:

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NCAA basketball tournament?

Please move this thread to the Off Topic Board.

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….and since the thread is being transferred, this suddenly becomes appropriate:

Sabrina Ionescu had 31 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists on Wednesday to lead the Liberty past the Aces, 116-107

RJABear said:

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March Madness is one of the great sporting events in the world. Specifically the unpredictable upset joy ion the first two weekends lends an air of magic. I expect to see the SEC and B1G ruin the NCAA tournament in the next three years.

First, the SEC and B1G will break away from the NCAA for football. Within a few years, the football playoff will exclusively feature B1g and SEC teams.

Then the power-2 come for the basketball tournament. Don't underestimate the greed and power and the temptation of the tournament TV contract. The power-2 will overpay for the good coaches and then argue that they are carrying all the weaker basketball programs. I could see Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren proposing a new format.

• reduce to 40 teams
• 30 of the 40 slots must go to power-2 teams
• the top 4 teams from the super power leagues all get a first weekend bye.
• the other leagues and power-2 with mediocre records can have a 32-team play-in weekend for the right to play against the best of SEC and B1G
• 80% of the revenue would go to the SEC and B1G

You might argue that the commissioners won't screw up the basketball tournament golden goose. But they just sank the Pac-10 and created an unworkable travel hardship for the $C and ucla olympic sports. Will the trojan and bruin baseball and softball teams just move to the midwest for the season ?

depressed about the demise of Cal football and fearing the future for all college sports.

---

To a large extent this depends on the future of the NCAA. I suspect it will have to change dramatically if it is to survive. I can easily envision a scenario in which the emerging super conferences split off for football, or maybe all sports. For all its warts, I do think the NCAA suffers a lot of criticism that is overstated.The goal of securing some degree of competitive balance through compliance with an agreed set of rules is a worthy one. If the Association has fallen short, the malfeasance of its member institutions makes them complicit in the corruption of its administrators.

Bobodeluxe said:

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NCAA basketball tournament?

Please move this thread to the Off Topic Board.

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