calumnus said:
Recruiting is the first part of his job. He has definitely assembled some talent, though maybe too many overestimated it. However, we now see that we are not going to win on talent alone. Not this season. We have hit some adversity. Now we will see Madsen's talent as a coach. Can he develop strategies to make these guys successful? Can he make adjustments? Can he keep them positive and motivated? Can we improve and win against better teams? Stay turned.
First thing. Can we all now acknowledge that the talk of home run hire was drastically premature? Speaking eloquently and with passion is a great thing, but it is like 10% of what makes a coach successful on the court vs. in the court of public opinion. That is all any of us were saying. And I fear the massive overexuberance by some is only going to lead to a shorter honeymoon and a harder backlash
I argued after the first game (not based on the first game) that what we had as a team this year was extremely unpredictable. I disagree with the notion that was argued to me that we had a proven roster. People need to distinguish between better than Fox and good. Better than Fox is clear. Beyond that is not.
But over the months on the coaching front, somehow the narrative has gone from a good gamble on a promising young coach to a homerun hire proven commodity. The latter it is not. He didn't build a program from the ground up at his last stop. He took over a team that had gone 23-11 and 25-10 the two years that preceded him. He went 11-19, 11-11, 20-12, 28-9. He did a nice job. It is not sure thing material. It is what we recognized at the time. A promising, passionate coach and the type of hire that Cal needs to make. And it is also the type of hire that may work or it may not.
As for what to expect this year, this is an important year. It is not a free pass year. You only get one chance to make a first impression. We need a story to tell going forward and that has to be that we have a young coach who is rebuilding this program and has it moving in the right direction. And right direction is not 6 wins instead of 3. Or 9 wins. It is competing in Pac-12 games. Probably winning a third of those at least and looking good in at least a third and limiting the games that we get demolished.
But it is not a free pass year, and, let's be blunt, we have been terrible. Let's not pump up these opponents. Our players are much better than theirs. We should be walking over them. Yes, Montana State was 25-9 last year. They also lost to Grand Canyon and Quinnipiac in that run and they have lost to Seattle U this year. Other than beating us, UOP has lost to Sam Houston and lost to Nevada 88-41. The Tommies beat Idaho St. by 1. These are not teams that should be on the floor with us. And, frankly, watching them they are unathletic and not exceptionally skilled. Yes, their players have probably played together longer than ours, but the disparity should more than compensate. And frankly, today's power conference basketball means you need to assemble a new team every year and get them up to speed.
We lost these games because right now our offense is a disorganized mess and our defense is beyond a disorganized mess. Period. Can barely tell right now what we are even trying to do.
That being said, too many coaches are too concerned about winning those first few games of the season to the detriment of succeeding the rest of the year. This team will be measured by how they finish, not how they start. I'm not at practice. I don't know what they are trying to do or how well they are getting everything implemented. I can't know how close they are to having the light turn on. I don't want them implementing game plans to beat Montana State while possibility stunting our ability to beat the middle to bottom of the Pac later. We are way too early in making ANY judgment because the proof will be in how we progress. If we close out the back half of the conference season with something like 4-5 or 5-4, and competitive in every game, Montana State is a distant memory. If we are still playing this badly, there is no free pass, because neither recruits nor anyone else will be giving us one. Of course that doesn't mean he is fired, but we will have to be realistic that we need this year to have some positive results.
So where are we? Well, start with where we were. Really sucking. So, at least we don't know yet what we are, and that is better than knowing you really suck looking at the business end of 30 games. I'd say everything from really sucking to pretty good is on the table. That's better than last year at this time. Whether it is enough will be better determined in March.