So far this season feels like.....

10 Views | 25 Replies | Last: 11 mo ago by calumnus
RedlessWardrobe
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the equivalent of the 2013 football season when Dykes took over for Tedford. Let me qualify: Tedford's career was nothing like Mark Fox, but by 2012 it was feeling like Fox.

The obvious parallel to Dykes football team. Finally got guys on offense that can score, but on defense they just can't stop anybody.

Final note: At the risk of being delusional I still think there's a chance that this team can finish fourth in Pac12 IF defensive weakness can be somewhat minimized. And for those of you that may be concerned about my separation from reality, I've been watching Cal sports for almost 60 years and have never found it necessary to visit a psychiatrist due to teams losing. Over the years I have probably acquired "Cal fan Immunity."

Hope things turn around starting with UCSD. (Note, we played horrible defense against Ole Miss but they are a very good shooting team.)
oskidunker
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RedlessWardrobe said:

the equivalent of the 2013 football season when Dykes took over for Tedford. Let me qualify: Tedford's career was nothing like Mark Fox, but by 2012 it was feeling like Fox.

The obvious parallel to Dykes football team. Finally got guys on offense that can score, but on defense they just can't stop anybody.

Final note: At the risk of being delusional I still think there's a chance that this team can finish fourth in Pac12 IF defensive weakness can be somewhat minimized. And for those of you that may be concerned about my separation from reality, I've been watching Cal sports for almost 60 years and have never found it necessary to visit a psychiatrist due to teams losing. Over the years I have probably acquired "Cal fan Immunity."

Hope things turn around starting with UCSD. (Note, we played horrible defense against Ole Miss but they are a very good shooting team.)


I am not a Cone fan. Too short to defend

Go Bears!
RedlessWardrobe
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Maybe when Askew comes back Cone can be used more as a situation player based on matchups. Or as emphasized all the time on this site, Cone's size on defense would be less of a factor if we threw more zones in from time to time during games.
Gkhoury2325
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I believe Askew should start when he is fully health and ready to go. He is a much better facilitator, can defend at a much higher level, has a strong handle despite holding the ball too long sometimes.

Cone could be an amazing 6th man that can come off the bench be a spark that can get you 10-12 points. We have no great scorers off the bench, but if we linked him to with Brown and Celestine that could be a decent bench. There was no rhythm with the offense yesterday.
oskidunker
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Gkhoury2325 said:

I believe Askew should start when he is fully health and ready to go. He is a much better facilitator, can defend at a much higher level, has a strong handle despite holding the ball too long sometimes.

Cone could be an amazing 6th man that can come off the bench be a spark that can get you 10-12 points. We have no great scorers off the bench, but if we linked him to with Brown and Celestine that could be a decent bench. There was no rhythm with the offense yesterday.


Brown should start
Go Bears!
RedlessWardrobe
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Gkhoury2325 said:

I believe Askew should start when he is fully health and ready to go. He is a much better facilitator, can defend at a much higher level, has a strong handle despite holding the ball too long sometimes.

Cone could be an amazing 6th man that can come off the bench be a spark that can get you 10-12 points. We have no great scorers off the bench, but if we linked him to with Brown and Celestine that could be a decent bench. There was no rhythm with the offense yesterday.
I agree. And getting back to both my original point combined with your post, if the fact is there was no rhythm with the offense yesterday we still scored 78 points. I know its a low bar of comparison, but opposed to last year some of our problems this year could be reduced, if not completely fixed.
calumnus
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Gkhoury2325 said:

I believe Askew should start when he is fully health and ready to go. He is a much better facilitator, can defend at a much higher level, has a strong handle despite holding the ball too long sometimes.

Cone could be an amazing 6th man that can come off the bench be a spark that can get you 10-12 points. We have no great scorers off the bench, but if we linked him to with Brown and Celestine that could be a decent bench. There was no rhythm with the offense yesterday.


Askew has a 3.0 to 3.0 Assist to Turnover Ratio. He is shooting .182 from Three. His 4 year stats are not much better so it is not like he is slumping that much. It is who he is as a player.

I'd rather we play more zone and play more of Brown, who is only going to get better.
oskidunker
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calumnus said:

Gkhoury2325 said:

I believe Askew should start when he is fully health and ready to go. He is a much better facilitator, can defend at a much higher level, has a strong handle despite holding the ball too long sometimes.

Cone could be an amazing 6th man that can come off the bench be a spark that can get you 10-12 points. We have no great scorers off the bench, but if we linked him to with Brown and Celestine that could be a decent bench. There was no rhythm with the offense yesterday.


Askew has a 3.0 to 3.0 Assist to Turnover Ratio. He is shooting .182 from Three. His 4 year stats are not much better so it is not like he is slumping that much. It is who he is as a player.

I'd rather we play more zone and play more of Brown, who is only going to get better.


Agree. We know what we have got with Askew. He played in games we lost
stu
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oskidunker said:

I am not a Cone fan. Too short to defend
Leilani McIntosh on our women's team is usually the shortest player on the court and almost always the best defender. And Paris Austin was a pretty good defender as a senior after Fox convinced him to work at it.
Strykur
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I have mentioned that when watching the 2013 Dykes team I did not look at the scoreboard or think of the results much that year, I just wanted to see a squad that was working on building something and there was visible improvement despite the (lack of) defense, same deal on the hardwood this year, there is potential despite the losses and every game has been competitive thus far.
calumnus
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oskidunker said:

calumnus said:

Gkhoury2325 said:

I believe Askew should start when he is fully health and ready to go. He is a much better facilitator, can defend at a much higher level, has a strong handle despite holding the ball too long sometimes.

Cone could be an amazing 6th man that can come off the bench be a spark that can get you 10-12 points. We have no great scorers off the bench, but if we linked him to with Brown and Celestine that could be a decent bench. There was no rhythm with the offense yesterday.


Askew has a 3.0 to 3.0 Assist to Turnover Ratio. He is shooting .182 from Three. His 4 year stats are not much better so it is not like he is slumping that much. It is who he is as a player.

I'd rather we play more zone and play more of Brown, who is only going to get better.


Agree. We know what we have got with Askew. He played in games we lost


He is now 2-14 as a starter at Cal thanks to this year's wins over St. Thomas and CSU Bakersfield.
dimitrig
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stu said:

oskidunker said:

I am not a Cone fan. Too short to defend
Leilani McIntosh on our women's team is usually the shortest player on the court and almost always the best defender. And Paris Austin was a pretty good defender as a senior after Fox convinced him to work at it.

Chris Paul is another.

He absolutely smothered 7'1" Chet Walker.

However, Jalen Cone ain't no Chris Paul.

I get where you are going with that, though. Size doesn't tell the whole story. Even Muggsy Bogues got a lot of steals - in fact still the Hornets all-time franchise leader in steals.

A lot of defense is conditioning and effort. It's hard work. I am not sure Cone is ever going to be a plus defender. He would be by now. This is his 5th year of college ball.

stu
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I agree - defense is all about motor and attitude.
ncbears
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Strykur said:

I have mentioned that when watching the 2013 Dykes team I did not look at the scoreboard or think of the results much that year, I just wanted to see a squad that was working on building something and there was visible improvement despite the (lack of) defense, same deal on the hardwood this year, there is potential despite the losses and every game has been competitive thus far.
Except that Daws, Kennedy, and Cone are here for just this year. I can't recall if Tyson is available next year.
But, the better players (and corers) on this years team won't be here next year - it will be, in effect, a whole new team.
oskidunker
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ncbears said:

Strykur said:

I have mentioned that when watching the 2013 Dykes team I did not look at the scoreboard or think of the results much that year, I just wanted to see a squad that was working on building something and there was visible improvement despite the (lack of) defense, same deal on the hardwood this year, there is potential despite the losses and every game has been competitive thus far.
Except that Daws, Kennedy, and Cone are here for just this year. I can't recall if Tyson is available next year.
But, the better players (and corers) on this years team won't be here next year - it will be, in effect, a whole new team.



Tyson has 2 more years
Cal8285
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RedlessWardrobe said:

the equivalent of the 2013 football season when Dykes took over for Tedford. Let me qualify: Tedford's career was nothing like Mark Fox, but by 2012 it was feeling like Fox.

The obvious parallel to Dykes football team. Finally got guys on offense that can score, but on defense they just can't stop anybody.

Final note: At the risk of being delusional I still think there's a chance that this team can finish fourth in Pac12 IF defensive weakness can be somewhat minimized. And for those of you that may be concerned about my separation from reality, I've been watching Cal sports for almost 60 years and have never found it necessary to visit a psychiatrist due to teams losing. Over the years I have probably acquired "Cal fan Immunity."

Hope things turn around starting with UCSD. (Note, we played horrible defense against Ole Miss but they are a very good shooting team.)
So far, 2023-24 basketball compared to 2022-23 basketball definitely doesn't feel like the equivalent of the 2013 vs. 2012 football season to me, and the numbers so far don't, either.

Dykes in 2013 finally got guys on offense that could score, versus 2012? Somehow, it didn't feel that way. The 2012 team could score ok, it was the defense that was the bigger problem. The offense scored 276 points, 23 points a game. Not great, and somewhat inconsistent, but there were 28 scored on the road against an Ohio St. team that came into the game ranked 12 in the AP poll and finished undefeated and ranked 3rd. There were 43 scored against a UCLA team that came into the game ranked 25 in the AP poll and won the Pac-12 south, was ranked 17th before losing the Pac-12 championship to Stanford and losing a bowl to Baylor.

In 2013, the team scored. . . 276 points, the identical number scored in 2012 in the identical number of games. The 2013 team played with "tempo" so in theory they should score more points even if the quality of offense stayed the same, yet they scored the identical number of points. How do we say that the 2013 team finally got guys on offense that can score compared to 2012?

While the 2012 defense wasn't very good, giving up 397 points, an average of just over 33 points a game (and the last two games were HORRIBLE, 59 and 62), the 2013 defense was so much worse, giving up 551 points, almost 46 points were game. Almost a 13 points per game increase in points allowed (and while 2012 got worse towards the end, so did 2013, 62, 41, and 63 allowed over the final 3 games). Yes, the offense playing with "tempo" factored into how much the defense gave up, but still, 2013 was a lot worse.

Yes, the 2023-24 basketball defense is worse than 2022-23, but not really that much compared how much worse 2013 football was than 2012 basketball. And the team is playing with a faster tempo, so naturally, they will give up more points while scoring more points, but we can easily look at points per 100 possessions aka offensive and defensive "efficiency" to help deal with that.

In 2022-23, the Bears scored 58.3 points per game, while giving up 70.1 points per game. But per 100 possessions, the Bears scored 0.877 and gave up 1.054. So far in 2023-24, the Bears have scored 76.5 point per game, while giving up 76.8 points per game, but per 100 possessions, this is scoring 1.055 points per possession, an increase of just about 20.3% over 2022-23, and giving up 1.059 points per possession, an increase of under 0.5%.

I realize that this likely influenced somewhat by the fact that those 2022-23 numbers include the full season with conference games, and the 2023-24 numbers take us only through 10 non-conference games. But it isn't like the 2022-23 team was really any good on defense -- it finished 289th out of 363 D-1 teams in defensive efficiency (i.e., points given up per 100 possessions), and this season sits at 262. 262 is unacceptable, but so is finishing 289.

Offensive efficiency? 2022-23 finished 358 out of 363. This season currently sits at 106. Again, this may change through the conference season. Still, to compare this season to 2013 football, where offense didn't really improve and defense got even worse? 2012 football won 3 of 12 games. 2022-23 basketball won 3 of 32 games. 2013 football won 1 of 12 games, 2023-24 basketball has won 3 of 7 games.

I don't know where the conference season will take us, I too will not put 4th place in conference totally out of the question (even if not likely), and I think there is an extremely good chance we finish better than 10th. No, I don't get any kind of 2013 football vibe from this team.
RedlessWardrobe
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I appreciate the analysis. I guess my specific Sonny Dykes seasons were not accurate. Just reflecting the fact that last year our basketball offense was so atrocious, this year we have guys with some offensive skills but we're giving up points so easily that it reminded me of those Sonny Dykes teams who had some of the worst tacklers I have ever seen.

Anyway, basketball to football a little bit like apples to oranges, but still hoping this year's hoops team can straighten some of their defensive problems out.
bear2034
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stu said:

I agree - defense is all about motor and attitude.
and the coach.
HoopDreams
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stu said:

I agree - defense is all about motor and attitude.


Yes, those factors are very important

But also important are defensive fundamentals such as knowing when and how to switch, knowing when, where and how to help, and being able to execute the defensive system

Also, length, quickness and athleticism are also key factors

And as someone said, coaching. I think a lot of defensive coaching relates to picking the right matchups and in game adjustments
Cal8285
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RedlessWardrobe said:

I appreciate the analysis. I guess my specific Sonny Dykes seasons were not accurate. Just reflecting the fact that last year our basketball offense was so atrocious, this year we have guys with some offensive skills but we're giving up points so easily that it reminded me of those Sonny Dykes teams who had some of the worst tacklers I have ever seen.

Anyway, basketball to football a little bit like apples to oranges, but still hoping this year's hoops team can straighten some of their defensive problems out.
While it is frustrating to watch the defense, I do think it important to realize that last year's defense was deceptively bad, and it isn't like we have regression from last year, the problem is no real improvement.

The offense last year wasn't deceptively bad, it was obviously bad. The combination of slow tempo (332nd slowest in D-1) plus horrible offensive efficiency (358th in D-1) led to being 362nd, second to last, in points per game. You didn't need to think much to realize how bad we were on offense, just look at the scoreboard and see how few points we put up. But looking deeper, it wasn't just the tempo, only 5 teams had worse offensive efficiency.

But some people thought that at least the 2022-23 team could play some defense, because we didn't give up THAT many points, just look at the scoreboard. But that wasn't really the case. The slow tempo (again, 332nd in D-1) allowed us to be "only" 159th in points per game allowed. Gee, for a 3-29 team, 159th in D-1 in points per game allowed seems decent compared to 362nd in points scored. At least we could play some defense. But defensive efficiency really tells the tale. Sure, finishing 289th in defensive efficiency is better than finishing 358 in offensive efficiency, but it is still REALLY BAD. Obviously bad offense plus deceptively bad defense leads to a 3-29 record.

As of right now, while the team has definitely improved offensively, as of today 107th in the nation in offensive efficiency versus 358th last year, the quality of defense hasn't changed significantly. It hasn't gotten worse or better in any meaningful way (currently 263rd in D-1 in defensive efficiency at 1.059 versus the 289th at 1.054 of 2022-23). We need to get better on defense, not because we're worse than last year, but because we're not better than last year, and we need to be better on BOTH defense and offense than last year.

One thing that would help both the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers would be to reduce the number of turnovers. Fewer turnovers per possession means more possessions where shots are taken and scoring happens, offensive efficiency goes up. Fewer turnovers per possession means fewer live ball turnovers that lead to easy transition buckets, so defensive efficiency goes up.

While I am frustrated by the number of turnovers this year, on a turnover per possession basis, there is some improvement over last year, just not enough. Last year we had 19.6 turnovers per 100 possessions, 301st in the country. This year we're at 17.7 turnovers per 100 possessions, 203rd in the country. An improvement. If we could improve that some more, it would help both the offensive and defensive numbers.

But yeah, even aside from the live ball turnovers, the defense needs to get better, because the same quality defense as 2022-23 isn't good enough.

socaltownie
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Isn't the main issue right now that cone is short (so people shoot over him) and aimaq is slow so people play 5 out and kill us?
stu
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HoopDreams said:

stu said:

I agree - defense is all about motor and attitude.


Yes, those factors are very important

But also important are defensive fundamentals such as knowing when and how to switch, knowing when, where and how to help, and being able to execute the defensive system

Also, length, quickness and athleticism are also key factors

And as someone said, coaching. I think a lot of defensive coaching relates to picking the right matchups and in game adjustments
I agree. Rod's short video explained a lot to me.
calumnus
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ncbears said:

Strykur said:

I have mentioned that when watching the 2013 Dykes team I did not look at the scoreboard or think of the results much that year, I just wanted to see a squad that was working on building something and there was visible improvement despite the (lack of) defense, same deal on the hardwood this year, there is potential despite the losses and every game has been competitive thus far.
Except that Daws, Kennedy, and Cone are here for just this year. I can't recall if Tyson is available next year.
But, the better players (and corers) on this years team won't be here next year - it will be, in effect, a whole new team.



That is why, for me, this feels more like the 97-98 team, Braun's 2nd, with transfers Carlisle, Kilgore, Gill, Elson and freshman Lampley combining with returnees Marks and Kenyon Jones. A lot of transfers. Better on offense than defense with some clear defensive liabilities. Shooter/score at PG. still new coach that I still felt good about. That team went 12-15 (8-10) finishing 5th in the PAC which is about what we are hoping for from this team.
dimitrig
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HoopDreams said:

stu said:

I agree - defense is all about motor and attitude.


Yes, those factors are very important

But also important are defensive fundamentals such as knowing when and how to switch, knowing when, where and how to help, and being able to execute the defensive system

Also, length, quickness and athleticism are also key factors

And as someone said, coaching. I think a lot of defensive coaching relates to picking the right matchups and in game adjustments


No arguments. Knowing where to be, when to rotate, and so on are important. Matchups are where coaching matters a lot. Leave the guy in, take him out, put someone else on him, double team , leave him open - a lot of decisions to make.

I still think that individual defense is mostly about effort. That doesn't mean conditioning and athleticism and size aren't important, but one has to have a desire to be a good defender. A lot of players have all the tools to be excellent defenders but don't make a commitment on that end of the floor.

I am not sure what to make of this Bears defense other than we always seem a step slow and out of position. My personal opinion is that the guys on the roster are offense first types and aren't really that well-coached on the fundamentals that make for good role players. Madsen can't undo years of bad habits in half a season even if he was an excellent coach.

It's also clear that being a grinding defensive team a la MFer isn't really his style. That's fine by me because even though the results aren't much better the games are a lot more enjoyable for the fans and the players as well. I think that is what we need to turn the program around.


HoopDreams
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dimitrig said:

HoopDreams said:

stu said:

I agree - defense is all about motor and attitude.


Yes, those factors are very important

But also important are defensive fundamentals such as knowing when and how to switch, knowing when, where and how to help, and being able to execute the defensive system

Also, length, quickness and athleticism are also key factors

And as someone said, coaching. I think a lot of defensive coaching relates to picking the right matchups and in game adjustments


No arguments. Knowing where to be, when to rotate, and so on are important. Matchups are where coaching matters a lot. Leave the guy in, take him out, put someone else on him, double team , leave him open - a lot of decisions to make.

I still think that individual defense is mostly about effort. That doesn't mean conditioning and athleticism and size aren't important, but one has to have a desire to be a good defender. A lot of players have all the tools to be excellent defenders but don't make a commitment on that end of the floor.

I am not sure what to make of this Bears defense other than we always seem a step slow and out of position. My personal opinion is that the guys on the roster are offense first types and aren't really that well-coached on the fundamentals that make for good role players. Madsen can't undo years of bad habits in half a season even if he was an excellent coach.

It's also clear that being a grinding defensive team a la MFer isn't really his style. That's fine by me because even though the results aren't much better the games are a lot more enjoyable for the fans and the players as well. I think that is what we need to turn the program around.
very true, it takes a ton of effort to play the best defense.

it's funny, when you think you're playing hard defense ... but then it gets personal because a player is beating you ... you find a different gear that you didn't even realize you had ... but it also takes a ton of energy

This is the gear that coaches are trying to get their players to on a more consistent basis throughout the game





calumnus
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It also occurs to me the other teams this team is somewhat like are the Wyking Jones teams. Like Dykes' in football, they had some talent and tried to push pace and could score but were lacking in defense. Most of the players ended up staying only 1 or 2 years We are currently 4-7, both those teams started out slightly better at 5-6.
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