RedlessWardrobe said:
the equivalent of the 2013 football season when Dykes took over for Tedford. Let me qualify: Tedford's career was nothing like Mark Fox, but by 2012 it was feeling like Fox.
The obvious parallel to Dykes football team. Finally got guys on offense that can score, but on defense they just can't stop anybody.
Final note: At the risk of being delusional I still think there's a chance that this team can finish fourth in Pac12 IF defensive weakness can be somewhat minimized. And for those of you that may be concerned about my separation from reality, I've been watching Cal sports for almost 60 years and have never found it necessary to visit a psychiatrist due to teams losing. Over the years I have probably acquired "Cal fan Immunity."
Hope things turn around starting with UCSD. (Note, we played horrible defense against Ole Miss but they are a very good shooting team.)
So far, 2023-24 basketball compared to 2022-23 basketball definitely doesn't feel like the equivalent of the 2013 vs. 2012 football season to me, and the numbers so far don't, either.
Dykes in 2013 finally got guys on offense that could score, versus 2012? Somehow, it didn't feel that way. The 2012 team could score ok, it was the defense that was the bigger problem. The offense scored 276 points, 23 points a game. Not great, and somewhat inconsistent, but there were 28 scored on the road against an Ohio St. team that came into the game ranked 12 in the AP poll and finished undefeated and ranked 3rd. There were 43 scored against a UCLA team that came into the game ranked 25 in the AP poll and won the Pac-12 south, was ranked 17th before losing the Pac-12 championship to Stanford and losing a bowl to Baylor.
In 2013, the team scored. . . 276 points, the identical number scored in 2012 in the identical number of games. The 2013 team played with "tempo" so in theory they should score more points even if the quality of offense stayed the same, yet they scored the identical number of points. How do we say that the 2013 team finally got guys on offense that can score compared to 2012?
While the 2012 defense wasn't very good, giving up 397 points, an average of just over 33 points a game (and the last two games were HORRIBLE, 59 and 62), the 2013 defense was so much worse, giving up 551 points, almost 46 points were game. Almost a 13 points per game increase in points allowed (and while 2012 got worse towards the end, so did 2013, 62, 41, and 63 allowed over the final 3 games). Yes, the offense playing with "tempo" factored into how much the defense gave up, but still, 2013 was a lot worse.
Yes, the 2023-24 basketball defense is worse than 2022-23, but not really that much compared how much worse 2013 football was than 2012 basketball. And the team is playing with a faster tempo, so naturally, they will give up more points while scoring more points, but we can easily look at points per 100 possessions aka offensive and defensive "efficiency" to help deal with that.
In 2022-23, the Bears scored 58.3 points per game, while giving up 70.1 points per game. But per 100 possessions, the Bears scored 0.877 and gave up 1.054. So far in 2023-24, the Bears have scored 76.5 point per game, while giving up 76.8 points per game, but per 100 possessions, this is scoring 1.055 points per possession, an increase of just about 20.3% over 2022-23, and giving up 1.059 points per possession, an increase of under 0.5%.
I realize that this likely influenced somewhat by the fact that those 2022-23 numbers include the full season with conference games, and the 2023-24 numbers take us only through 10 non-conference games. But it isn't like the 2022-23 team was really any good on defense -- it finished 289th out of 363 D-1 teams in defensive efficiency (i.e., points given up per 100 possessions), and this season sits at 262. 262 is unacceptable, but so is finishing 289.
Offensive efficiency? 2022-23 finished 358 out of 363. This season currently sits at 106. Again, this may change through the conference season. Still, to compare this season to 2013 football, where offense didn't really improve and defense got even worse? 2012 football won 3 of 12 games. 2022-23 basketball won 3 of 32 games. 2013 football won 1 of 12 games, 2023-24 basketball has won 3 of 7 games.
I don't know where the conference season will take us, I too will not put 4th place in conference totally out of the question (even if not likely), and I think there is an extremely good chance we finish better than 10th. No, I don't get any kind of 2013 football vibe from this team.