he is listed as a point guard so that could really help us next season.

Basketball Bear said:

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he is listed as a point guard so that could really help us next season.

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There is a real obsession with point guards even though classical point guards are not necessarily needed in Madsen's offense. He is not John Stockton or Isiah Thomas playing in the 80s. But basketball is not played like it was in the 80s. He is not very tall. He is athletic. He plays downhill, which Madsen likes. I am not sure how good his shot is. He is not a clever passer. He is somewhat like Paris Austin but appears to be much stronger. I think (hope) Rodney Brown will be the lead guard next year and hope there will be some portal wings to replace Kennedy and Tyson and maybe Celestine. If Cal wants to be competitive.

He is #5 in white.

sluggo said:

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Basketball Bear said:

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he is listed as a point guard so that could really help us next season.

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There is a real obsession with point guards even though classical point guards are not necessarily needed in Madsen's offense. He is not John Stockton or Isiah Thomas playing in the 80s. But basketball is not played like it was in the 80s. He is not very tall. He is athletic. He plays downhill, which Madsen likes. I am not sure how good his shot is. He is not a clever passer. He is somewhat like Paris Austin but appears to be much stronger. I think (hope) Rodney Brown will be the lead guard next year and hope there will be some portal wings to replace Kennedy and Tyson and maybe Celestine. If Cal wants to be competitive.

He is #5 in white.

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I thought Jaylon had another year and was a junior?

Jaylon is likely to declare for the draft. He could come back. Depends on his draft evaluation I'd think.

1 Is Special 🏀.. pic.twitter.com/TRItXCDE2O

— TSF (@TheSkillFactory) January 17, 2024

Marchmadsen said:

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Jeremiah I think will have a chance to play right away. He's ranked as a 3 star but there's just no way this kid is the talent level of a 3 star. He isn't pass first but he can play point guard and score the ball with ease while getting to the line at a high rate and making his free throws(looked at his statline from today and I believe it was 13-14 from the line)he also guards the other teams best player every game.

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Sure, he has to play. Other than Brown the competition does not look up to the physical challenge, and he will be up to it. Last year when Brown came in I thought he was very likely to be a strong player because he was a good athlete with a high level of skill. Wilkinson is more of an athlete type, and he is not very tall, so it is less clear how his game will translate when he does not have a physical advantage.

Bottom line. Except for a few exceptions, it's always difficult to project what an excellent high school player will do when he reaches D1 NCAA basketball.

That being said. It's really been quite a while since we've had a player that fits the point guard profile who can shoot. Hopefully Wilkinson is the one.

Marchmadsen said:

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1 Is Special 🏀.. pic.twitter.com/TRItXCDE2O

— TSF (@TheSkillFactory) January 17, 2024

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Incredible username, btw

RedlessWardrobe said:

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Bottom line. Except for a few exceptions, it's always difficult to project what an excellent high school player will do when he reaches D1 NCAA basketball.

That being said. It's really been quite a while since we've had a player that fits the point guard profile who can shoot. Hopefully Wilkinson is the one.

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I don't agree. I think for about 80% of recruits one can project well from seeing them play. Clear misses are easy to see, e.g. most of Fox's recruits. As are stars. Players like Wilkinson who are in the middle are more difficult as their success depends on developing new capabilities, which may or may not happen.

sluggo said:

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RedlessWardrobe said:

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Bottom line. Except for a few exceptions, it's always difficult to project what an excellent high school player will do when he reaches D1 NCAA basketball.

That being said. It's really been quite a while since we've had a player that fits the point guard profile who can shoot. Hopefully Wilkinson is the one.

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I don't agree. I think for about 80% of recruits one can project well from seeing them play. Clear misses are easy to see, e.g. most of Fox's recruits. As are stars. Players like Wilkinson who are in the middle are more difficult as their success depends on developing new capabilities, which may or may not happen.

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Simple difference of opinion. There are 350 D1 schools. If that translates to say 1200 incoming recruits per year, I would say that more that 2/3 of the recruits are "in the middle" like Wilkerson. And if the projection accuracy rate is 80%, than Fox was way worse than we already thought he was. (But that's one that I think we can specifically agree on!)

sluggo said:

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RedlessWardrobe said:

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Bottom line. Except for a few exceptions, it's always difficult to project what an excellent high school player will do when he reaches D1 NCAA basketball.

That being said. It's really been quite a while since we've had a player that fits the point guard profile who can shoot. Hopefully Wilkinson is the one.

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I don't agree. I think for about 80% of recruits one can project well from seeing them play. Clear misses are easy to see, e.g. most of Fox's recruits. As are stars. Players like Wilkinson who are in the middle are more difficult as their success depends on developing new capabilities, which may or may not happen.

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I'm assuming that Sluggo's 80% refers to Coaches attending games, scouting and speaking with other coaches. NOT casual BI posters watching highlight videos.

Even BI posters attending a single high school game could probably do better than 50%.on differentiating as Sluggo suggests.

But even watching edited highlight videos can still help with stars (especially freak athletes). But i would not rely on a video to determine if a high school PG is a good shooter.

BeachedBear said:

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sluggo said:

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RedlessWardrobe said:

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Bottom line. Except for a few exceptions, it's always difficult to project what an excellent high school player will do when he reaches D1 NCAA basketball.

That being said. It's really been quite a while since we've had a player that fits the point guard profile who can shoot. Hopefully Wilkinson is the one.

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I don't agree. I think for about 80% of recruits one can project well from seeing them play. Clear misses are easy to see, e.g. most of Fox's recruits. As are stars. Players like Wilkinson who are in the middle are more difficult as their success depends on developing new capabilities, which may or may not happen.

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I'm assuming that Sluggo's 80% refers to Coaches attending games, scouting and speaking with other coaches. NOT casual BI posters watching highlight videos.

Even BI posters attending a single high school game could probably do better than 50%.on differentiating as Sluggo suggests.

But even watching edited highlight videos can still help with stars (especially freak athletes). But i would not rely on a video to determine if a high school PG is a good shooter.

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Who said anything about casual? I think I watched more Okafor and R. Brown video than Fox did. (Obviously I can't prove that.)

Let's says players will fall into 4 bins: stars (top 25% starters in league, like Jaylon Tyson, useful players (not stars but players who help you win games, like Keonte Kennedy), rotation players who do not help get wins (bodies), and non-rotation players (busts). I think close watchers of the game can put players in the right bin most of the time. Whether it is 50% or 80% or somewhere in between, I don't know the right number. I do think busts are easy to see.

I think A LOT can be learned watching full game tapes. I watched one of Wilkinson last year. He was not a shooter. And his fundamentals were not great. He could have gotten better. I do think it is knowable whether he will come in as a good shooter. It is hard to say how much an individual skill will improve. I like it when the skills are already there.

I am not saying close watchers are better scouts than coaches. Coaches might actually agree that players are unlikely to succeed, but they have scholarships in their pocket and if no one is brought in, there is no chance of success. Plus it looks bad to have unfilled scholarships.

Sluggo, sounds like you watch quite a bit of video on incoming players. And some people on these boards get obsessed by stats and mathematical projections, but as you say, the eye test of a decent sample size can override all of that other stuff.

I only concluded that Wilkinson was a shooter because that's how he's been presented. I'll take your observation as very close to fact if your call is he is not much of a shooter. If that's the case it will really suck, because as much as I commend the efforts of guys like Joel Brown and Devin Askew, I am starving for a point guard that also has the ability to pull up and shoot. (Doesn't have to be Jerome Randle, but someone close to say, a Keith Smith is what I'm hoping for.)

RedlessWardrobe said:

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Sluggo, sounds like you watch quite a bit of video on incoming players. And some people on these boards get obsessed by stats and mathematical projections, but as you say, the eye test of a decent sample size can override all of that other stuff.

I only concluded that Wilkinson was a shooter because that's how he's been presented. I'll take your observation as very close to fact if your call is he is not much of a shooter. If that's the case it will really suck, because as much as I commend the efforts of guys like Joel Brown and Devin Askew, I am starving for a point guard that also has the ability to pull up and shoot. (Doesn't have to be Jerome Randle, but someone close to say, a Keith Smith is what I'm hoping for.)

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I concede that my information may be out of date. In the highlight videos he looks like a physically different player than last year, though the highlights still don't show much outside shooting. But I can't find a game video.

Celestine improved a lot in high school before he got injured, and hopefully Wilkinson has as well. I do expect him to be more slasher than shooter.

If you want to see last year, see the youtube below.

sluggo, either I watched the full whole game you saw, or I saw this video (thx for posting)

either way, he doesn't look like a shooter to me

his handle is fine, but I didn't like his defense, and nothing special from his passing

not quite sure what coaches saw in him, but apparently he's blowing up recently, so perhaps last season isn't a reflection of the player today

Last season is a different player from what I'm understanding. When he first committed and I watched film I wasn't super impressed but as of the past month or so I've been extremely high on him I'd be shocked if he doesn't end up being a 4 star.

HoopDreams said:

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sluggo, either I watched the full whole game you saw, or I saw this video (thx for posting)

either way, he doesn't look like a shooter to me

his handle is fine, but I didn't like his defense, and nothing special from his passing

not quite sure what coaches saw in him, but apparently he's blowing up recently, so perhaps last season isn't a reflection of the player today

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I probably posted it before when he committed. He has probably improved significantly to put up the numbers he has recently. Hopefully a full game will appear so we can see where he is at.