Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
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Cal making the NCAA's
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Last: 9 mo ago by oskidunker
Winning the conf tourney is the only path. If that path involves going thru AZ then no chance.
If they can finish with a winning record then making the NIT would be good accomplishment.
If they can finish with a winning record then making the NIT would be good accomplishment.
bluehenbear said:
Winning the conf tourney is the only path. If that path involves going thru AZ then no chance.
If they can finish with a winning record then making the NIT would be good accomplishment.
Wecan only lose two more games if we hope to have a 500 record or better. Probably need to sweep washington , beat Stanford.
Go Bears!
There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.bluesaxe said:There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
On October 27, 2023, the NCAA announced that conference regular season champions that do not win their conference tournaments or otherwise not selected for the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, will no longer receive an automatic bid. The NIT will now guarantee two teams, based on the NET Rankings from each of six major conferences: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC. The top two teams in the NET Rankings that do not qualify for the NCAA tournament from each conference, regardless of their record, will be selected for the NIT Tournament, and guaranteed the ability to host a game for the first round.
I think we lose both games to Colorado and to Utah. My thinking is the altitude as you stated and not only that we seem to lose focus and run out of gas in the second half. We really need somebody from the bench to step up and give us more minutes of quality time. We seem to be down to eight people in the rotation and that has not expanded for the last three or four games. NIT is our best bet.6956bear said:
The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
Winning out the season with a win in the tournament maybe, or winning the Pac 12 tournament, definitely. Just so many missed opportunities this season. Butler and SDSU are tournament teams we took to OT. Really bad, inexplicable losses to Pacific, UTEP and Montana State. Those 5 games probably the difference between bubble watch and no NIT even.
It isn't the earlier conference losses that create the big problem, we could survive the UW and ASU home losses (the ASU loss is much worse than the UW loss, but still, we could survive that).6956bear said:The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.bluesaxe said:There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
The bigger problem is the earlier OOC losses, especially the losses to teams we never should have lost to. In the NCAA NET rankings, we are 1-3 in Quad 4!!! One of those losses is a REALLY bad Quad 4 loss (to #233 Montana St. at home), and one of those losses is a REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY bad loss, to #356 (out of 362) Pacific. Pacific is truly bad, I mean amazingly terrible -- suffering some amazing blowout losses, winless in the WCC, other than Cal (a Quad 2 road win for them), winless outside of home and outside of Quad 4 (and 3-8 in Quad 4), needing OT to win AT HOME against the worst team in the country, 0-22 Mississippi Valley St., who had not lost a game by less than 34 when they played Pacific.
The NCAA says, "The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding." Right now, zero Quad 1 wins, two Quad 3 losses, and THREE Quad 4 losses.
The "if only we'd won" OOC games we really needed are those Quad 4 losses, Pacific, Montana St, and UTEP, and the Quad 3 loss to Tulane (the biggest conference loss was the Quad 3 loss at home to ASU). Bagging a quad 1 win over either San Diego St. or Butler would have been really nice, too.
The OOC results just kill us. Six more conference wins just won't do it. If current NET rankings hold, 4 of our 5 road games would be Quad 1 (UW is on the edge, if their 72 ranking slips below 75, that game is no longer Quad 1), so there are some chances for Quad 1 wins (and we're not getting to six wins without winning 3 road games), but two, or even three quad 1 wins won't offset the OOC problems.
This team has improved a LOT. If the Bears had played the OOC season the way they played most of the conference season, they probably would have gone 9-2 OOC, give or take a win. There would be realistic hope for the tourney, 6-2 would probably get them there regardless of tourney performance. But that ship has sailed. Right now, I'm not going to worry about post-season, and just enjoy the ride watching this entertaining team.
I still have dreams of dancing but step one would be to finish in the top 4 of the conference and get that first-game bye. Without it, we'd have to win 4 games in 4 days. Not even remotely possible with this lack of depth. Although I do feel Gus is capable of giving Aimaq at least 10 minutes of rest per game. Not sure what that can't happen. The altitude games will be miracles to win. Even a split would be a tremendous accomplishment.
Again please permit me to bring up my statement from December 9th after the Butler game:
RedlessWardrobe said:
Well based on what everyone is saying, and I know the goal is to win every game, the practical PAC 12 goal is to finish in the top 4, reducing the wins required in Vegas in order to keep playing
RedlessWardrobe said:
Well based on what everyone is saying, and I know the goal is to win every game, the practical PAC 12 goal is to finish in the top 4, reducing the wins required in Vegas in order to keep playing
Is there a chance Okafor comes back this year. Its ann ankle, supposedly. Is Larsen much better than Curtis?
Go Bears!
The person you replied to is saying 6-2 for the NIT.Cal8285 said:6956bear said:The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.bluesaxe said:There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
The OOC results just kill us. Six more conference wins just won't do it. If current NET rankings hold, 4 of our 5 road games would be Quad 1 (UW is on the edge, if their 72 ranking slips below 75, that game is no longer Quad 1), so there are some chances for Quad 1 wins (and we're not getting to six wins without winning 3 road games), but two, or even three quad 1 wins won't offset the OOC problems.
Cal8285 said:It isn't the earlier conference losses that create the big problem, we could survive the UW and ASU home losses (the ASU loss is much worse than the UW loss, but still, we could survive that).6956bear said:The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.bluesaxe said:There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
The bigger problem is the earlier OOC losses, especially the losses to teams we never should have lost to. In the NCAA NET rankings, we are 1-3 in Quad 4!!! One of those losses is a REALLY bad Quad 4 loss (to #233 Montana St. at home), and one of those losses is a REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY bad loss, to #356 (out of 362) Pacific. Pacific is truly bad, I mean amazingly terrible -- suffering some amazing blowout losses, winless in the WCC, other than Cal (a Quad 2 road win for them), winless outside of home and outside of Quad 4 (and 3-8 in Quad 4), needing OT to win AT HOME against the worst team in the country, 0-22 Mississippi Valley St., who had not lost a game by less than 34 when they played Pacific.
The NCAA says, "The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding." Right now, zero Quad 1 wins, two Quad 3 losses, and THREE Quad 4 losses.
The "if only we'd won" OOC games we really needed are those Quad 4 losses, Pacific, Montana St, and UTEP, and the Quad 3 loss to Tulane (the biggest conference loss was the Quad 3 loss at home to ASU). Bagging a quad 1 win over either San Diego St. or Butler would have been really nice, too.
The OOC results just kill us. Six more conference wins just won't do it. If current NET rankings hold, 4 of our 5 road games would be Quad 1 (UW is on the edge, if their 72 ranking slips below 75, that game is no longer Quad 1), so there are some chances for Quad 1 wins (and we're not getting to six wins without winning 3 road games), but two, or even three quad 1 wins won't offset the OOC problems.
This team has improved a LOT. If the Bears had played the OOC season the way they played most of the conference season, they probably would have gone 9-2 OOC, give or take a win. There would be realistic hope for the tourney, 6-2 would probably get them there regardless of tourney performance. But that ship has sailed. Right now, I'm not going to worry about post-season, and just enjoy the ride watching this entertaining team.
Yeah, let's keep it real. We lost to effing UOP. Saint Mary's recently played UOP twice and beat them 76-28 and 84-43. Those are not typos, not even the 76-28. Now, can we claim extenuating circumstances for our UOP game? Sure. But still...
Then we played a good team, Arizona, twice. Got smoked each time.
The only possible way we could get an at-large bid would be if they all-of-a-sudden give TONS more weight to the last half of the season (even more weight than they give it now, to the point of almost completely discounting the first half),
Win the final Pac 12 Conference Tournament? Well, anything's possible, I guess, but almost no way we could win four consecutive games. Three would be quite difficult.
Big C said:Cal8285 said:It isn't the earlier conference losses that create the big problem, we could survive the UW and ASU home losses (the ASU loss is much worse than the UW loss, but still, we could survive that).6956bear said:The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.bluesaxe said:There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
The bigger problem is the earlier OOC losses, especially the losses to teams we never should have lost to. In the NCAA NET rankings, we are 1-3 in Quad 4!!! One of those losses is a REALLY bad Quad 4 loss (to #233 Montana St. at home), and one of those losses is a REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY bad loss, to #356 (out of 362) Pacific. Pacific is truly bad, I mean amazingly terrible -- suffering some amazing blowout losses, winless in the WCC, other than Cal (a Quad 2 road win for them), winless outside of home and outside of Quad 4 (and 3-8 in Quad 4), needing OT to win AT HOME against the worst team in the country, 0-22 Mississippi Valley St., who had not lost a game by less than 34 when they played Pacific.
The NCAA says, "The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding." Right now, zero Quad 1 wins, two Quad 3 losses, and THREE Quad 4 losses.
The "if only we'd won" OOC games we really needed are those Quad 4 losses, Pacific, Montana St, and UTEP, and the Quad 3 loss to Tulane (the biggest conference loss was the Quad 3 loss at home to ASU). Bagging a quad 1 win over either San Diego St. or Butler would have been really nice, too.
The OOC results just kill us. Six more conference wins just won't do it. If current NET rankings hold, 4 of our 5 road games would be Quad 1 (UW is on the edge, if their 72 ranking slips below 75, that game is no longer Quad 1), so there are some chances for Quad 1 wins (and we're not getting to six wins without winning 3 road games), but two, or even three quad 1 wins won't offset the OOC problems.
This team has improved a LOT. If the Bears had played the OOC season the way they played most of the conference season, they probably would have gone 9-2 OOC, give or take a win. There would be realistic hope for the tourney, 6-2 would probably get them there regardless of tourney performance. But that ship has sailed. Right now, I'm not going to worry about post-season, and just enjoy the ride watching this entertaining team.
Yeah, let's keep it real. We lost to effing UOP. Saint Mary's recently played UOP twice and beat them 76-28 and 84-43. Those are not typos, not even the 76-28. Now, can we claim extenuating circumstances for our UOP game? Sure. But still...
The we played a good team, Arizona, twice. Got smoked each time.
The only possible way we could get an at-large bid would be if they all-of-a-sudden give TONS more weight to the last half of the season (even more weight than they give it now, to the point of almost completely discounting the first half),
Win the final Pac 12 Conference Tournament? Well, anything's possible, I guess, but almost no way we could win four consecutive games. Three would be quite difficult.
Has anyone really suggested an at large bid? I think the only discussion is: 1. Winning the PAC-12 Tournament (and getting to #4 so we get a first round bye) or 2. Getting to .500 so we <might> get an NIT bid.
TBH, I'm just hoping for Cal to finish with a .500 or better record this year. After losing all but three games last season, that's a huge improvement (and should win Mark Madsen the Pac-12 Coach of the Year Award, IMHO). Even if Cal manages to finish above .500 (or heck, even if it wins every regular remaining season game), Cal's only shot at the Dance is to win the Pac-12 Tournament. Short of winning all the remaining games, I doubt Cal would even get a NIT invite.
That said, this team far and away exceeded my expectations. Jaylon Tyson's been a real diamond (deserving of Pac-12 Player of the Year, IMHO) for Cal while Daws and Jalen Cone have stepped up admirably at times and Keonte Kennedy's developed into an excellent defensive stopper. Newell, Askew, Celestine, Larson , and (especially) Rodney Brown have also all had moments of excellence that excited me. (And yes, I recognize I've been more liberal with my criticisms than my compliments with this team.)
Cal missing the NCAA Tourney and the NIT, this year, isn't the end of the world. Should Cal manage to make either, I will be pleasantly surprised.
That said, this team far and away exceeded my expectations. Jaylon Tyson's been a real diamond (deserving of Pac-12 Player of the Year, IMHO) for Cal while Daws and Jalen Cone have stepped up admirably at times and Keonte Kennedy's developed into an excellent defensive stopper. Newell, Askew, Celestine, Larson , and (especially) Rodney Brown have also all had moments of excellence that excited me. (And yes, I recognize I've been more liberal with my criticisms than my compliments with this team.)
Cal missing the NCAA Tourney and the NIT, this year, isn't the end of the world. Should Cal manage to make either, I will be pleasantly surprised.
Not that this could really happen but what if we won out the regular season and then got a semi-final or final appearance in the tournament? That would mean 9-10 straight wins including against a likely tourney team in Utah, borderline tourney teams in Washington State and Colorado, all on the road I believe, and then whoever we play in the tournament. If one of those is Arizona that would have to at least warrant a look right?calumnus said:Big C said:Cal8285 said:It isn't the earlier conference losses that create the big problem, we could survive the UW and ASU home losses (the ASU loss is much worse than the UW loss, but still, we could survive that).6956bear said:The team still has 5 road games remaining. Winning on the road is tough. They have 3 particular tough road games. At WSU, at Utah and at Colorado. The Utah and Colorado games are at altitude, which will be a big test for a team like Cal that has less depth.bluesaxe said:There is no chance at all of an at large bid and chances of winning the conference tournament are really slim given the lack of depth we have. Hoping for a run good enough to make the NIT but even that's a tough order. The early problems and all those close losses really left a big hole to climb out of.Gobears49 said:
Anybody but me who thinks Cal's recent turnaround could possibly lead to them making the NCAA's? I don't think anything out there suggests this is possible. But the last few games have showed Madsen's coaching has turned things around and the college basketball services have not expressed that thought. I think Bracketology only has four Pac 12 teams in the Dance and Cal is not one of them.
Yes the earlier losses have created a hole. They have won some close ones but they sure would like those UW and ASU home losses to have gone the other way. They would be in a much better spot at a post season event if they had.
The road to post season at this point is to win the P12 tourney. Or go 6-2 down the stretch and win a game or 2 in the P12 tourney and get selected for the NIT. To go 6-2 would get them to 16-15 in regular season so winning at least 1 in the P12 tourney ensures a winning overall record. Might be enough for an NIT bid.
Best bet for 6 wins down the stretch? Win out at home (UCLA, OSU and UO) and go 3-2 on the road. The best bets for road wins IMO are at UW,WSU and Stanford.
Steep hill to climb. Not impossible just not likely IMO.
The bigger problem is the earlier OOC losses, especially the losses to teams we never should have lost to. In the NCAA NET rankings, we are 1-3 in Quad 4!!! One of those losses is a REALLY bad Quad 4 loss (to #233 Montana St. at home), and one of those losses is a REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY bad loss, to #356 (out of 362) Pacific. Pacific is truly bad, I mean amazingly terrible -- suffering some amazing blowout losses, winless in the WCC, other than Cal (a Quad 2 road win for them), winless outside of home and outside of Quad 4 (and 3-8 in Quad 4), needing OT to win AT HOME against the worst team in the country, 0-22 Mississippi Valley St., who had not lost a game by less than 34 when they played Pacific.
The NCAA says, "The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding." Right now, zero Quad 1 wins, two Quad 3 losses, and THREE Quad 4 losses.
The "if only we'd won" OOC games we really needed are those Quad 4 losses, Pacific, Montana St, and UTEP, and the Quad 3 loss to Tulane (the biggest conference loss was the Quad 3 loss at home to ASU). Bagging a quad 1 win over either San Diego St. or Butler would have been really nice, too.
The OOC results just kill us. Six more conference wins just won't do it. If current NET rankings hold, 4 of our 5 road games would be Quad 1 (UW is on the edge, if their 72 ranking slips below 75, that game is no longer Quad 1), so there are some chances for Quad 1 wins (and we're not getting to six wins without winning 3 road games), but two, or even three quad 1 wins won't offset the OOC problems.
This team has improved a LOT. If the Bears had played the OOC season the way they played most of the conference season, they probably would have gone 9-2 OOC, give or take a win. There would be realistic hope for the tourney, 6-2 would probably get them there regardless of tourney performance. But that ship has sailed. Right now, I'm not going to worry about post-season, and just enjoy the ride watching this entertaining team.
Yeah, let's keep it real. We lost to effing UOP. Saint Mary's recently played UOP twice and beat them 76-28 and 84-43. Those are not typos, not even the 76-28. Now, can we claim extenuating circumstances for our UOP game? Sure. But still...
The we played a good team, Arizona, twice. Got smoked each time.
The only possible way we could get an at-large bid would be if they all-of-a-sudden give TONS more weight to the last half of the season (even more weight than they give it now, to the point of almost completely discounting the first half),
Win the final Pac 12 Conference Tournament? Well, anything's possible, I guess, but almost no way we could win four consecutive games. Three would be quite difficult.
Has anyone really suggested an at large bid? I think the only discussion is: 1. Winning the PAC-12 Tournament (and getting to #4 so we get a first round bye) or 2. Getting to .500 so we <might> get an NIT bid.
If we really got on a roll, finished in the top 4, and made it to the Pac12 final game and lost a close one, I feel like at at-large bid wouldn't be impossible, although still unlikely. But why should games at the beginning of the year be that much different than looking at last year's season to make a decision? If the team is a hot hand, on a roll, they should get a bid. But I think our blowout loss to Arizona ,and consistent inability to hold leads aren't suggestive that we're even on a roll. We just blew a 16pt lead to the conference basement dweller, at home, and barely made it to overtime. That's not really tourney material. Not yet. No matter what, we've been so much more fun to watch this year, and I selfishly hope Tyson is projected as a second rounder so we can enjoy him, and pay him, for one more year of fun. A bear can dream.
ND is red shirting and Askew has applied for a red shirt year waiver as well. And Yes Larsen though under sized for his position, (weight and strength wise) understands much better, the team concepts for both ends of the court (where to be, where to rotate etc) per the coaches. And understandable given his age/experience advantage over Curtis. But depth is a big issue for this team, as Brown though talented, is not ready for major minutes (defensively) and Larsen can be backed down and attacked offensively fairly easily. The first 4 are being forced to play 35+minutes (last game Daws played 43 minutes) and that takes a toll on effective effort at both ends. Thus Coach often has to use all the time outs available to strategically give a needed blow to the guys. Perfect scenario is to have a 8 person rotation with the 9th player contributing sporadically minutes wise (5+- min).oskidunker said:
Is there a chance Okafor comes back this year. Its ann ankle, supposedly. Is Larsen much better than Curtis?
Injuries for Nov/Dec to so many key players bit the team hard, as with a full roster being healthy - minimum 4 more wins (pacific, Montana st, Utep, a split with SDS or Butler) but all hindsight.
Transfer portal in off season huge for the team, as its tough to go heavy with HS seniors coming in needing to get stronger/developed etc. Also some tough decisions roster wise to make off season. As is the new norm - NIL support is the key difference between being competitive or a door mat. ACC average NIL support/program, is higher than the Pac12 - thus we will need more supporters stepping up if possible. Love the trajectory of the program and Mad Dog is bringing an amazingly quick resurgence - lots to be done, but the goals of a post season team are real near term.
No tourney this year, and while I'd love it if the team went 6-1 for a regular season .500+ record it seems highly unlikely. But Cal basketball is fun to watch as long as we're competitive and giving top effort, that's all I ask for (and a tourney bid in 2025, of course).
With the loss to fucla, what do we have left besides playing spoiler?
Regroup, try to string some good games together. 4th place finish still not impossible, though difficult. Making it there means it takes 3 wins to win the Pac12 tournament and keep playing, as opposed to finishing 5th or lower and needing 4.
I realize that this is all highly unlikely but there's a reason for the format. A couple of years back, Oregon State was in the same position and actually made a run to the elite 8 in the NCAA's.
I realize that this is all highly unlikely but there's a reason for the format. A couple of years back, Oregon State was in the same position and actually made a run to the elite 8 in the NCAA's.
bluehenbear said:
With the loss to fucla, what do we have left besides playing spoiler?
We have each and every game in which to compete as best we can. The players love playing and they love winning.
Carrot-way-out-on-a-stick is the dream of winning the conference tourney, as unlikely as that is.
Big C said:bluehenbear said:
With the loss to fucla, what do we have left besides playing spoiler?
We have each and every game in which to compete as best we can. The players love playing and they love winning.
Carrot-way-out-on-a-stick is the dream of winning the conference tourney, as unlikely as that is.
Go 6-1 and Nit, also all but impossible.
Go Bears!
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