We have momentum on our side, our team is playing far better and this team is night and day from the team that started the season. Huge props to Madsen for such a significant turnaround in 1 year. Defensively we are slowly getting better as well.

Winning out will be huge. That will let us end with a winning record overall and winning conference record, and probably net us an invite to a tournament. These players deserve a chance to play more

Winning out also increases our tiny chance of winning the conference tournament and getting the bid to the dance. With the fact that AZ, Oregon, Washington state plays a lot of the team in front of us (UCLA and Colorado), which means that if we can get UCLA and Colorado to drop a couple (we also play Colorado), there's a real chance that we get a top 4 seed and a first round bye.

Winning 3 in Vegas is far more achievable than playing b2b2b2b nights and winning 4 in a row. We have shown that we can beat almost everyone in this conference (with the exception for AZ but hey one game anything can happen!)

I like our chances against Colorado. They want to play a shootout style game and that will let our offense thrive. On the other hand, Utah will require us to play top tier defense to win. Keita and Carlson are a load to deal with down low. I have no fear against Furd.

I like being in 6th place. Won't meet Arizona until finals.

Johnfox said:

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I like our chances against Colorado. They want to play a shootout style game and that will let our offense thrive. On the other hand, Utah will require us to play top tier defense to win. Keita and Carlson are a load to deal with down low. I have no fear against Furd.

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Colorado crushed Utah yesterday, based on that one game they look like the tougher opponent this week.

ducky23 said:

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The Colorado/Utah road-trip is one of the toughest in the entire country. They are a combined 26-3 this year at home (they are 4-14 away from home btw) so even getting a split would be a huge achievement.

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So, when teams like Utah and Colorado are so good - and acclimated- playing in altitude (as evidenced by their combined home records), shouldn't they be even better conditioned at sea level against the teams they play on the road? Their road records are baffling to me.

If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

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Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

Pittstop said:

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ducky23 said:

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The Colorado/Utah road-trip is one of the toughest in the entire country. They are a combined 26-3 this year at home (they are 4-14 away from home btw) so even getting a split would be a huge achievement.

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So, when teams like Utah and Colorado are so good - and acclimated- playing in altitude (as evidenced by their combined home records), shouldn't they be even better conditioned at sea level against the teams they play on the road? Their road records are baffling to me.

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My stab at an answer:

Clearly any cardio vascular conditioning advantage gained by playing your home games at altitude and your away games at sea level (or relatively close) is greatly outweighed by the disadvantage of playing your home games at sea level and your away games at altitude.

*Having good players suck at altitude is more of an equalizer than having players that are in better cardio vascular condition playing more skilled players at sea level. The key is to put a dent in good players with that thin air.
* If you had great players at Utah and Colorado, they would have an advantage in any gym.

The Bears surprised me with this win over Oregon (even though Oregon was missing a couple key players). I had the Colorado and Utah games as "likely losses", but now i think the Utah game is more of a "toss-up". And whereas i had the furd game as a "toss-up", I now think we have a better chance of winning that one, too. So whereas I previously thought we'd go 0-4 or 1-3 in these final four games, I now think 2-2 or 3-1 is more likely.

BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

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Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

We probably burst Oregon's bubble

calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

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On Phil Knight's birthday, no less!

Winning 2 of 3 and finishing 11-9 would be very likely good enough to finish 6th or better.

A win over Colorado would give the Bears the tiebreaker over CU if both teams finish with the same conference record, making a finish of 4th or 5th more possible. In the event of other possible ties, if the Pac is still using the "best wins" tiebreaker (and because the Bears split with both of these teams), I think ASU would win a tiebreaker with Cal b/c ASU was 1-0 vs. WSU while Cal was 1-1, while UCLA would get a tiebreaker over Cal if UCLA beats either WSU or UA in their remaining games.

calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

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If we finish in the top 5 of the P12, we would deserve the NIT, by virtue of being one of the hottest teams not in the Tourney, with an exciting star player and a decent late season attendance. Having an overall record below .500 is not a dealbreaker, especially if our counference record is above .500.

Quote:

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Selection process[edit]
In the past, NIT teams were selected in consultation with ESPN, the television home of the NIT.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Invitation_Tournament#cite_note-51][51][/url] The goal of the NIT was to sustain the MIBA financially. Therefore, schools selected to play in the NIT were often major conference teams with records near .500 that had large television fan bases and would likely have a respectable attendance for tournament games on their home court.

The latter is one reason why New Mexico was invited virtually every yearthe Lobos often had a winning season but failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Invitation_Tournament#cite_note-52][52][/url] Seeding considerations and home court advantage included the number of fans willing to show up to each game. In an effort to maintain some quality, a rule saying that a team must have a .500 or better overall record to qualify for the NIT was imposed.

The NCAA announced a revamped selection process starting with the 2017 tournament. The main highlights are:

• Teams are no longer required to have .500 or greater overall records to receive bids.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Invitation_Tournament#Selection_process

calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

---

You don't think we'd get an at large NIT bid in that scenario? I honestly have no idea how NIT bids work, but we'd be NET top 100. Id think we'd have a prettt decent shot at it

Johnfox said:

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I like our chances against Colorado. They want to play a shootout style game and that will let our offense thrive. On the other hand, Utah will require us to play top tier defense to win. Keita and Carlson are a load to deal with down low. I have no fear against Furd.

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Except its hard to go in and shoot threes at altitude on your first game, one of the reasons their home records are so good. Our lack of depth will also he a challenge.

ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

---

You don't think we'd get an at large NIT bid in that scenario? I honestly have no idea how NIT bids work, but we'd be NET top 100. Id think we'd have a pretty decent shot at it

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Yeah if we win out the regular season, we would at worst be tied for 5th place, a shoo-in for the NIT with the top 3 or 4 going to the NCAAs.

As I understand, their selection process is more of a beauty contest, they don't have to abide by the conference finish, but that actually helps us further as we would be one of the hottest teams in the P12.

I think we probably win 2 of the last 3 with the Colorado game being the toughest.

We will need to play the reserves more. I am till hoping Okofor can give us a few minutes. Maybe Monty Bowser gets some time.I wonder why he hasn't played. Madsen was pretty high on him early in the season.Also maybe give Wren Robinson 10 minutes to rest Cone.

If we won out, and won 2 or 3 in the tourney but lost the title game, I think we'd get a ncaa bid with 18 or 19 wins. I believe it's happened before and it would be quite a story. Or do you have to have 20 to get an at large bid?

bearsandgiants said:

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If we won out, and won 2 or 3 in the tourney but lost the title game, I think we'd get a ncaa bid with 18 or 19 wins. I believe it's happened before and it would be quite a story. Or do you have to have 20 to get an at large bid?

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I think we'd be on the bubble at least.

Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

---

You don't think we'd get an at large NIT bid in that scenario? I honestly have no idea how NIT bids work, but we'd be NET top 100. Id think we'd have a pretty decent shot at it

---

Yeah if we win out the regular season, we would at worst be tied for 5th place, a shoo-in for the NIT with the top 3 or 4 going to the NCAAs.

As I understand, their selection process is more of a beauty contest, they don't have to abide by the conference finish, but that actually helps us further as we would be one of the hottest teams in the P12.

I think we probably win 2 of the last 3 with the Colorado game being the toughest.

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If we win out we knock Utah and Colorado out of the NCAAs and into the NIT ahead of us. Their NETs will still be better than ours.

Yes but TheCBI. Might be interested in us,

calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

---

You don't think we'd get an at large NIT bid in that scenario? I honestly have no idea how NIT bids work, but we'd be NET top 100. Id think we'd have a pretty decent shot at it

---

Yeah if we win out the regular season, we would at worst be tied for 5th place, a shoo-in for the NIT with the top 3 or 4 going to the NCAAs.

As I understand, their selection process is more of a beauty contest, they don't have to abide by the conference finish, but that actually helps us further as we would be one of the hottest teams in the P12.

I think we probably win 2 of the last 3 with the Colorado game being the toughest.

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If we win out we knock Utah and Colorado out of the NCAAs and into the NIT ahead of us. Their NETs will still be better than ours.

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At that point the P12 tournament might factor in, the NCAA or the NIT won't pick either of these teams ahead of us if we beat them this week and if they get bumped out early while we go all the way to the final.

If we win out and make it to the P12 final, (granted a pretty big "if"), then we would have won 11 of our last 14 games.

bearister said:

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Pittstop said:

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ducky23 said:

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The Colorado/Utah road-trip is one of the toughest in the entire country. They are a combined 26-3 this year at home (they are 4-14 away from home btw) so even getting a split would be a huge achievement.

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So, when teams like Utah and Colorado are so good - and acclimated- playing in altitude (as evidenced by their combined home records), shouldn't they be even better conditioned at sea level against the teams they play on the road? Their road records are baffling to me.

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My stab at an answer:

Clearly any cardio vascular conditioning advantage gained by playing your home games at altitude and your away games at sea level (or relatively close) is greatly outweighed by the disadvantage of playing your home games at sea level and your away games at altitude.

*Having good players suck at altitude is more of an equalizer than having players that are in better cardio vascular condition playing more skilled players at sea level. The key is to put a dent in good players with that thin air.
* If you had great players at Utah and Colorado, they would have an advantage in any gym.

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Funny thing, I was having a slant on this very conversation with our son just yesterday...He lives in Aptos part time, Tahoe part time and works off site while at Tahoe. He and his daughter do the walk uphill with split skiis into the back country and joining the skiies and boarding down. They went the other day with a husband/wife in their early 60s who are legit outdoors people, and could hardly keep up..

So my question of him was going from Aptos to Tahoe and boarding or biking (non snow times) does he get gassed....Oh yes. Now, when he comes down to Nisene Marks and bikes is it much easier than when down at sea level for lengthy times.....Again, oh yes....He confirmed he could very definitely feel it...No question. And the verticals I get from topo maps are ridiculous so there is a real push there.

Winning against Pacific and Montana State would have had us at 15-13 and a March Madness bid would definitely come if we win out plus win some conference tourney games. Those losses hurt us the most.

Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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If we win out but lose in the P12 tourney final, would we be on the NCAA bubble? How much importance does the committee place on more recent results and form?

---

Doubtful. Maybe if other teams near the bubble falter - but I haven't done the math.

Pretty much need to win the P12 Tourney to make NCAA otherwise hope for CBI bid - and that probably requires us to win 3 of our next 4.

Despite this nice run - I think it is too lilttle too late for this squad.

---

Exactly. We are hoping to finish over .500, that does not get you into the NCAA Tournament. Our wins are bursting others' bubbles.

We either win the PAC-12 Tournament (an actual possibility) or we finish .500 or above and get an invite to the CBI.

---

You don't think we'd get an at large NIT bid in that scenario? I honestly have no idea how NIT bids work, but we'd be NET top 100. Id think we'd have a pretty decent shot at it

---

Yeah if we win out the regular season, we would at worst be tied for 5th place, a shoo-in for the NIT with the top 3 or 4 going to the NCAAs.

As I understand, their selection process is more of a beauty contest, they don't have to abide by the conference finish, but that actually helps us further as we would be one of the hottest teams in the P12.

I think we probably win 2 of the last 3 with the Colorado game being the toughest.

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If we win out we knock Utah and Colorado out of the NCAAs and into the NIT ahead of us. Their NETs will still be better than ours.

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At that point the P12 tournament might factor in, the NCAA or the NIT won't pick either of these teams ahead of us if we beat them this week and if they get bumped out early while we go all the way to the final.

If we win out and make it to the P12 final, (granted a pretty big "if"), then we would have won 11 of our last 14 games.

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

We need to either: 1) win the PAC-12 Tournament and go to the NCAA Tournament with the auto-bid or finish above .500 and hope for a CBI invite. Winning out and then losing the Final is a good story for getting into the CBI.

If we win out the last 3, we will finish at worse tied with Colorado with a 2 win sweep against them, so that proves that the wide gap in our relative ranking would not be justified. BTW we would also be ahead of UCLA, which was upset by USC and has @WSU and UA remaining.

Like I said, it would all depend on how much weight the committee puts on the trend and recent results.

Zero chance of NCAA unless we win the Tourney.

isn't the CBI pay-to-play? Can we afford it?

NIT:. top 2 teams by NET ranking not invited to the Dance get the automatic bids (and host a home game). If we win the next 5, that knocks out CO and Ut and leaves 2 in teh Dance; 3 & 4 get bids to NIT, likely CO and UT, but perhaps OR. But we could be on the bubble for an at-large big.

https://bballnet.com/conferences/Pac-12

calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Quote:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Quote:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

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There will be a decent amount of conf champions (from mid majors) in the top 80. But point taken, you probably need to be at least top 85-90 to have a shot at the NIT.

Assuming cal runs the table (and loses Pac-12 title game), I think they get there.

ORE missed guys? No broadcaster ever mentions our PG Asskew out- WHICH_ He is sprinting to greet teamates, HOW HURT IS HE STILL?
Could he play in the PAC Tourney

he was in some ratings, #1 in the nation recruit.....Such a savvy IQ guy
I womder how the math shapes up if CAL reaches and looses the Final?

with the play in and soo many teams with unimpressive records- a hot team or two coud squeeze in.