What do we think of the Pac 12 rising from the dead? Any second thoughts or FOMO?
https://www.si.com/college-football/pac-12-targeting-four-mountain-west-programs-rebuild-conference

I think Cal should play at least half of the eight in their nonconference sched every year to create some West Coast rivalries other than the 'Furd. Whoever is in charge of the Cal travel budget will appreciate it.

Here's what they have so far:
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno
Colorado State
San Diego State
Team to be named later
Team to be named later

I don't think they will have a problem attracting two more teams with the six they already have.

While as a fan I am excited about watching Cal go up against the best in the country, in the back of my mind I'm wondering if we should have stayed and waited for this to play out. All conferences have perennial doormats and perennial champions with a gold nameplate on the door. Though I'm always an optimist, if I were putting money on a parlay right now I'd say Cal has a 60-70% chance of doormat in the ACC and a 70-80% chance of gold nameplate in the PacMountain West8. I get that it's all about the TV money, but there's an argument to be made that the money is not worth doormat status.

Projected No. 14 out of 18 by The Athletic
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5692229/2024/08/15/acc-basketball-rankings-names-to-know/

^ subscriber only article (umm, or turn javascript off)

snippet..

14. California
Biggest losses: Jaylon Tyson (19.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg); Fardaws Aimaq (14.5 ppg, 11 rpg); Jalen Cone (13.4 ppg); Keonte Kennedy (9.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg); Jalen Celestine (8.7 ppg)
Returning rotation players: None
Top 100 freshmen added: None
Top 100 transfers added (2): No. 71 Andrej Stojakovic (Stanford), No. 92 Rytis Petraitis (Air Force)
Why they're here: Not that you'd want to keep everyone from a 13-19 team, but losing your top seven players is never ideal. That made adding two top 100 transfers which somehow ties for the second-most in the ACC necessary.
Stojakovic is the biggest name here, given his bloodline and high school pedigree, but he was hit-or-miss as a freshman, making just 32.7 percent of his 3s. Petraitis is just as interesting, though, having played largely as a small-ball center despite being only 6-foot-7 and 210 pounds. He's a creative passer, and we can already picture him finding All-Summit forward B.J. Omot (North Dakota) on backdoor cuts. The overall talent level isn't at an ACC level, but Mark Madsen is a smart coach. We doubt Cal just rolls over.

I tend to agree with your thinking, 75bear, overall the ACC gives the brand a lot of benefits. I'm just not sure it sets us up for successful seasons, given some of Cal's disadvantages.
We've suffered enough as fans with 7 straight seasons of sub-500 records. My fear is that seven years from now I don't want to be talking about 14 straight seasons of sub-500.
But I guess I'll sit on the optimist side of the fence today and say Madsen can achieve .500 within a couple years.

Scott Ostler on the subject
Pac-12 raid of Mountain West is Cal, Stanford curiosity and SJSU catastrophe
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/ostler/article/pac-12-raid-mountain-west-cal-stanford-19763236.php

wifeisafurd said:

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Basketball is one of the sports impacted by travel demands from conference realignment (- football is not very impacted. Football revenue of course drives things, so Cal signed a GOR contract that would cost them potentially over $100 million to leave. So as long as the ACC is existence, Cal is stuck. So embrace the change guys.

If the ACC blows-up down the road, Cal wants to be in a power conference for both monetary and recruiting reasons. What that looks like is anyone's guess, but I suspect that joining a bunch of schools with
"State" in their name is a last resort.

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If the ACC doesn't fall apart I think they're by far our best conference option. Otherwise I'd rather see Cal and Stanford hook up with UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, US Riverside, UC San Diego, and Cal Poly SLO than join any "State" conference.

stu said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Basketball is one of the sports impacted by travel demands from conference realignment (- football is not very impacted. Football revenue of course drives things, so Cal signed a GOR contract that would cost them potentially over $100 million to leave. So as long as the ACC is existence, Cal is stuck. So embrace the change guys.

If the ACC blows-up down the road, Cal wants to be in a power conference for both monetary and recruiting reasons. What that looks like is anyone's guess, but I suspect that joining a bunch of schools with
"State" in their name is a last resort.

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If the ACC doesn't fall apart I think they're by far our best conference option. Otherwise I'd rather see Cal and Stanford hook up with UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, US Riverside, UC San Diego, and Cal Poly SLO than join any "State" conference.

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I think for most sports maybe we should join the Big West with only football, men's and women's basketball and maybe women's soccer (ie the minimum for ACC membership) making the long distance travel.

However, if the ACC breaks up and we don't get into the B1G, I think we should stick with whoever remains in the ACC and rebuild a bicoastal conference by adding teams. I think we are already seeing the benefits of the East Coast affiliations in our national profile and media exposure.

My sense/hope is that in a few years (5-10?) maybe common sense will prevail and a stabilization of conferences will occur which will return some regionality. Names may change or have different senses. I think Football will be a big unicorn and possibly different for those schools that continue to compete. Mens Basketball may be another different beast as well.

It seems like we're still in the midst of a major shift in how and where people get their sports-media feeds as well as how and where they spend their time on Saturday afternoons. Furthermore, there seems to a be a peaking of sports-betting influence (maybe hasn't peaked yet?) in major sports which is impacting so much of this.

Soooo - we're still in the midst of change. Therefore it seems like we should NOT shift every other season to chase what some bloggers think might be obvious. Would seem better to wait and watch a bit more, since the ACC seems like a good staging ground for a program like ours.

Well said, Beached Bear, we've made our bed now... and I didn't know about the $100 mil penalty for leaving until now, so that settles any actual talk of jumping ship. What are your expectations for where Cal can be in the conference standings for the next 10 years?
I can't agree that regionality will come back, though. As much as I would love to see college sports go back to what makes it great (regional rivalries, away games you can travel to without boarding a plane, amateur status of players who care about the school rather than an NIL paycheck), the incentives to make that happen aren't there at the top levels.

barsad said:

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Well said, Beached Bear, we've made our bed now... and I didn't know about the $100 mil penalty for leaving until now, so that settles any actual talk of jumping ship. What are your expectations for where Cal can be in the conference standings for the next 10 years?
I can't agree that regionality will come back, though. As much as I would love to see college sports go back to what makes it great (regional rivalries, away games you can travel to without boarding a plane, amateur status of players who care about the school rather than an NIL paycheck), the incentives to make that happen aren't there at the top levels.

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I am loving all the national attention we are getting playing east coast schools on ESPN. The next two years our schedule is heavy with the bottom half of the ACC (in football).

And ACC basketball is going to be absolutely great, with a huge opportunity to draw big crowds to Haas to see Carolina, Duke, NC State, Virginia, Syracuse, Wake, Georgia Tech, Norte Dame, Louisville….

barsad said:

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Well said, Beached Bear, we've made our bed now... and I didn't know about the $100 mil penalty for leaving until now, so that settles any actual talk of jumping ship. What are your expectations for where Cal can be in the conference standings for the next 10 years?
I can't agree that regionality will come back, though. As much as I would love to see college sports go back to what makes it great (regional rivalries, away games you can travel to without boarding a plane, amateur status of players who care about the school rather than an NIL paycheck), the incentives to make that happen aren't there at the top levels.

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As I mentioned, Football (and probably Mens Basketball) need to be carved out and different for the reasons you mention (money, money and money),

My sense is that the OTHER sports don't have the financial influence, but are dragged along to conference alignments because of Football. So maybe the OTHER sports can return to a more regional/rivalry focus.

Football (and to a lesser extent MBB) are professional minor leagues and need to function that way. That ship sailed already. And as Calumnus put it. The ACC is going to be great for MBB! At least from a fan perspective!

I'd rather be an ACC doormat and see some real talent playing in Haas.

BeachedBear said:

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And speaking of the old P12....

It turns out that I don't miss Colorado, Utah, Arizona or ASU.....

AT ALL....

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they felt like a weird Frankenstein "bolt on" to the conference anyway

I think I read yesterday that Hawaii was just admitted to the Mountain West.

Also, I believe that the Mountain West will soon add UNLV, a team which, in a few years, could be a football power. It now plays in the Raiders stadium.

I have also read that Las Vegas is going to grow exponentially in the next ten years or so. Makes it more likely that UNLV will soon have a powerhouse football team, funded by local businesses that want to further make Las Vegas a destination city for conference rooters who will play every other year or so in Vegas..

It may be possible to raise the number of FBS teams who can play in the FBS playoffs from twelve to eighteen. Need to spend more time on this. If that could come about, Cal's chances as an FBS team in the Mountain West could lead that new conference to get three teams in the FBS playoffs rather than just one or two. Note that the FCS playoffs now have include twenty four teams, making a bigger number of teams in the FBS playoffs more feasible.

Perhaps more later on this in a few days.

Gobears49 said:

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I think I read yesterday that Hawaii was just admitted to the Mountain West.

Also, I believe that the Mountain West will soon add UNLV, a team which, in a few years, could be a football power. It now plays in the Raiders stadium.

I have also read that Las Vegas is going to grow exponentially in the next ten years or so. Makes it more likely that UNLV will soon have a powerhouse football team, funded by local businesses that want to further make Las Vegas a destination city for conference rooters who will play every other year or so in Vegas..

It may be possible to raise the number of FBS teams who can play in the FBS playoffs from twelve to eighteen. Need to spend more time on this. If that could come about, Cal's chances as an FBS team in the Mountain West could lead that new conference to get three teams in the FBS playoffs rather than just one or two. Note that the FCS playoffs now have include twenty four teams, making a bigger number of teams in the FBS playoffs more feasible.

Perhaps more later on this in a few days.

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Las Vegas grow exponentially? And what exactly are they going to use for water?

HearstMining said:

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Gobears49 said:

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I think I read yesterday that Hawaii was just admitted to the Mountain West.

Also, I believe that the Mountain West will soon add UNLV, a team which, in a few years, could be a football power. It now plays in the Raiders stadium.

I have also read that Las Vegas is going to grow exponentially in the next ten years or so. Makes it more likely that UNLV will soon have a powerhouse football team, funded by local businesses that want to further make Las Vegas a destination city for conference rooters who will play every other year or so in Vegas..

It may be possible to raise the number of FBS teams who can play in the FBS playoffs from twelve to eighteen. Need to spend more time on this. If that could come about, Cal's chances as an FBS team in the Mountain West could lead that new conference to get three teams in the FBS playoffs rather than just one or two. Note that the FCS playoffs now have include twenty four teams, making a bigger number of teams in the FBS playoffs more feasible.

Perhaps more later on this in a few days.

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Las Vegas grow exponentially? And what exactly are they going to use for water?

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Sweat off anyone who has to step outside.

Gobears49 said:

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I think I read yesterday that Hawaii was just admitted to the Mountain West.

Also, I believe that the Mountain West will soon add UNLV, a team which, in a few years, could be a football power. It now plays in the Raiders stadium.

I have also read that Las Vegas is going to grow exponentially in the next ten years or so. Makes it more likely that UNLV will soon have a powerhouse football team, funded by local businesses that want to further make Las Vegas a destination city for conference rooters who will play every other year or so in Vegas..

It may be possible to raise the number of FBS teams who can play in the FBS playoffs from twelve to eighteen. Need to spend more time on this. If that could come about, Cal's chances as an FBS team in the Mountain West could lead that new conference to get three teams in the FBS playoffs rather than just one or two. Note that the FCS playoffs now have include twenty four teams, making a bigger number of teams in the FBS playoffs more feasible.

Perhaps more later on this in a few days.

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UNLV and Hawaii are already in the Mountain West, though for Hawaii, only football so they can save money on travel by having all other sports in the otherwise all California Big West.

HearstMining said:

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Gobears49 said:

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I think I read yesterday that Hawaii was just admitted to the Mountain West.

Also, I believe that the Mountain West will soon add UNLV, a team which, in a few years, could be a football power. It now plays in the Raiders stadium.

I have also read that Las Vegas is going to grow exponentially in the next ten years or so. Makes it more likely that UNLV will soon have a powerhouse football team, funded by local businesses that want to further make Las Vegas a destination city for conference rooters who will play every other year or so in Vegas..

It may be possible to raise the number of FBS teams who can play in the FBS playoffs from twelve to eighteen. Need to spend more time on this. If that could come about, Cal's chances as an FBS team in the Mountain West could lead that new conference to get three teams in the FBS playoffs rather than just one or two. Note that the FCS playoffs now have include twenty four teams, making a bigger number of teams in the FBS playoffs more feasible.

Perhaps more later on this in a few days.

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Las Vegas grow exponentially? And what exactly are they going to use for water?

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You have to take everything '49 says with a grain of salt. The population is not growing exponentially any time soon.

The water issue is a not a limitation on growth, though geography may be. Vegas has 12 years worth of present water usage in Lake Mead, which is tied to a closed system. Water is on everyone's mind due to low water on the Colorado River. Going into 2024, the River will be under a Tier 1 shortage, meaning Nevada will have to give up 7% of its 2024 River allotment. A wet winter could mean the allocation returns. It tends to go through cycles, though the down periods are more extended due to more recent higher average temperatures. Southern Nevada remains the most water-secure large community along the River due to water conservation. About 99% of all indoor water use in Southern Nevada is recycled and returned to Lake Mead. And despite the population having grown significantly, consumptive water use has decreased by 30% over the past two decades (that said, there is not much more conservation to eke out).

The greater Vegas area growing "exponentially" like the math term where a number is doubled or multiplied even more by itself, is not going to happen in our lifetimes. Also, they will run out of private land in the Vegas Valley, absent significantly more density, which is not what is being built presently. The annual grown rate in recent times is less than 1 percent (.71 percent), and dropping because you start with a bigger base. The Valley currently is at about 2.4 million and is projected to reach 3 million by 2042, at which time who knows what the conference situation will be, or if college sports are even going to be played?

My old client, the SCMWD, also is involved with deals with Nevada water authorities which will increase Southern Nevada access to water rights in an amount roughly estimated to equal its present annual wafer usage (and increase the MWD's water supply as well).

HearstMining said:

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Gobears49 said:

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I think I read yesterday that Hawaii was just admitted to the Mountain West.

Also, I believe that the Mountain West will soon add UNLV, a team which, in a few years, could be a football power. It now plays in the Raiders stadium.

I have also read that Las Vegas is going to grow exponentially in the next ten years or so. Makes it more likely that UNLV will soon have a powerhouse football team, funded by local businesses that want to further make Las Vegas a destination city for conference rooters who will play every other year or so in Vegas..

It may be possible to raise the number of FBS teams who can play in the FBS playoffs from twelve to eighteen. Need to spend more time on this. If that could come about, Cal's chances as an FBS team in the Mountain West could lead that new conference to get three teams in the FBS playoffs rather than just one or two. Note that the FCS playoffs now have include twenty four teams, making a bigger number of teams in the FBS playoffs more feasible.

Perhaps more later on this in a few days.

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Las Vegas grow exponentially? And what exactly are they going to use for water?

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Exponent of zero?