Not enough assists, and too many turnovers.

A key ratio which few look at (or ever heard of) is the Ratio of Assists to Field Goals Made (A/FGM). It is a rough gauge of how many baskets are a result of teamwork. It doesn't cover all types of teamwork, but it is generally a good predictor, as the good teams usually have the higher ratios.

Another key ratio is the Assists to Turnovers ratio (A/TO)which we are already familiar with. Also a good predictor of the effectiveness of an offense. The good teams usually have the higher ratios.

Looking at the A/FGM ratios for last or 2024 season:

Cal: A/FGM = 46%

Arizona (PAC12 Champ): A/FGM = 59%

UConn (NCAA Champ): A/FGM = 64%

A/TO Ratios

Cal: A/TO = 1.0

Arizona: A/TO = 1.6

UConn: A/TO = 1.9

Ratios for this Season (2025) vs some Top 25 teams:

Cal: A/FGM = 41%, A/TO = 0.8

Tennessee: A/FGM = 59%, A/TO = 1.5

Duke: A/FGM = 58%, A/TO = 1.6

Kentucky: A/FGM = 58%, A/TO = 2.0

Gonzaga: A/FGM = 61%, A/TO = 1.5

Oregon: A/FGM = 60%, A/TO = 1.5

Cal's ratios are down significantly from our last season. It is clear we need to clean up our turnovers. A friend who has seen all the games tells me what frustrates him is some of our players go up for a dunk or a shot, but lose the ball before they can even take the shot. We should be able improve this.

Improving teamwork and assist numbers is more complicated. Players need to work harder or smarter to get open, and get the desire to do that constantly. And players with the ball need to look for the open man. If a man is open, and has an easier chance to make a shot, then pass him the ball, instead of doing your own thing with the ball, dribbling it, or shooting it.

A team playing faster than they are capable of playing is bound to make turnovers, make hurried decisions and take poor shots. I think we should play at the pace which guarantees fewer mistakes, even if the rest of the teams are playing faster. As we gain confidence, then we can speed it up. I'd rather we give the ball up on a shot clock violation, than play too fast and lose the ball in the backcourt, leading to an automatic fast break bucket for the opponent. The object of the game is to put the ball in the basket more often than the opponent, not try and play the game too fast.

Interesting numbers. What is MMs career emphasis, offense or defense? Is this true to his history or an outlier?

concernedparent said:

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No. The offense is ugly and obviously could do with more passing, but it's surprisingly effective for something cobbled together with a brand new roster. #56 in offensive efficiency.

The problem is the defense which is legitimately one of the, if not the, worst in power conference basketball. #242 in defensive efficiency.

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concernedparent said:

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No. The offense is ugly and obviously could do with more passing, but it's surprisingly effective for something cobbled together with a brand new roster. #56 in offensive efficiency.

The problem is the defense which is legitimately one of the, if not the, worst in power conference basketball. #242 in defensive efficiency.

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I agree with you that the defense is much less effective than the offense at this point. Efficiency is a valid measure, but this year's efficiency rating so far is taken from our pre-conference games, played primarily against weak teams. I mean Mercyhurst? And we have another ringer coming up, Northwestern State. Where do we find these teams? And Ivy League Cornell actually stuffed us. The only likely good teams we have faced so far are Vanderbilt and Missouri. Stanford looks interesting, and we lost to all 3. Efficiency ratings mean much more after we play a good portion of the conference season, especially in power conferences, IMO.

For early games, pre-conference games, I prefer the nuts and bolts stats, those that pertain to something a player can relate to, and you can tell him real concepts, like, "Try to get open", or "Look for your open teammate," or "Take better care of the basketball, and don't lose it."

For the last few seasons, the best teams have had around 18 assists, and around 10 turnovers or less. Cal had 20 turnovers and lost to Vanderbilt, scored only 69 points, the lowest total this season, and had 17 turnovers and lost to Cornell. Cal had three games where they had less than 10 assists, which is unacceptable. We lost 2 out of the 3 games.

I know jack about Xs and Os but agree, you can tell when we are just letting guys Make plays with the ball and it often gets STUFFED, especially against larger and athletic teams. We have A big on the floor, but teams with height are going to challenge us for sure and we can't play Sisoko/Dort together much

rkt88edmo said:

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I know jack about Xs and Os but agree, you can tell when we are just letting guys Make plays with the ball and it often gets STUFFED, especially against larger and athletic teams. We have A big on the floor, but teams with height are going to challenge us for sure and we can't play Sisoko/Dort together much

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Sissoko and Dort haven't been on the court at the same time all year.

Mady is the better overall defender

Dort is a good shot blocker but gets lost in our defense sometimes… I expect that to improve as the season progresses

Surprisingly we haven't used them to blitz/hedge the pick n roll much

As more mobile than Aimaq, I expected that to happen

Keep in mind we had all our players and lost big to Vanderbilt .

HoopDreams said:

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Surprisingly we haven't used them to blitz/hedge the pick n roll much

As more mobile than Aimaq, I expected that to happen

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Please explain what you mean by the above.

Thanks!

calbearinamaze said:

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HoopDreams said:

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Surprisingly we haven't used them to blitz/hedge the pick n roll much

As more mobile than Aimaq, I expected that to happen

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Please explain what you mean by the above.

Thanks!

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a really common offensive set is the pick and roll (common in college, and super common in NBA)

The Pick N Roll is where the offensive big man sets a high ball screen (pick) for the ball handler at the top of the key. As soon as the ball handler uses the screen he releases and go towards the basket 'rolls'.

The ball handler makes a decision to drive to the basket (or pull up for a jumper) or passes to the rolling big man for a layup. Of course the ball handler can also do other variations such as pass, or reverse and not even use the screen. Another variation is the big man can 'pop' by moving to the outside instead of toward the basket after the pick. Of course he needs to be a shooting threat and neither of our centers are.

blitzing or hedging by a big man is a common way to defend it, but the big needs to be mobile. Mady and Dort are both more mobile than last year's center Aimaq so I thought we'd use the defensive strategy more. The big can go out to the perimeter (blitz) to defend the ball handler so he can't use the screen to turn the corner. However they need to be mobile enough to also get back to defend the post as the offensive big would have rolled to under the basket, possibly unguarded

No matter how many times I see this defensive strategy it seems like it shouldn't work as it would seem that the ball handler should be able to pass to the center under the basket, but it's difficult to do if the defender is using the right technique and is quick enough to recover to defend the post

"Where do we find these teams?"

Do you remember Athletes in Action? They were as close as Cal could get to booking the Washington Generals. However, one year they had a little guard whose nickname was Mr. Something or other* and he dropped close to 40 on us in Harmon. He ended up making a slot on the Warriors for a short stint.

*I was particularly fond of the half time "entertainment" at those games: A 15 minute anti drug lecture by one of their players holding a mic at center court and delivered in a monotone. My wife had to wipe the drool off me and slap me awake for the 2nd half.

*I think he played for Tennessee or Tennessee State in college.

bearister said:

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"Where do we find these teams?"

Do you remember Athletes in Action? They were as close as Cal could get to booking the Washington Generals. However, one year they had a little guard whose nickname was Mr. Something or other* and he dropped close to 40 on us in Harmon. He ended up making a slot on the Warriors for a short stint.

*I was particularly fond of the half time "entertainment at those games: A 15 minute anti drug lecture by one of their players holding a mic at center court and delivered in a monotone. My wife had to wipe the drool off me and slap me awake for the 2nd half.

*I think he played for Tennessee or Tennessee State in college.

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That would be 5'7" Keith "Mister" Jennings. Played for E. Tennessee St. 1987-1991

HearstMining said:

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bearister said:

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"Where do we find these teams?"

Do you remember Athletes in Action? They were as close as Cal could get to booking the Washington Generals. However, one year they had a little guard whose nickname was Mr. Something or other* and he dropped close to 40 on us in Harmon. He ended up making a slot on the Warriors for a short stint.

*I was particularly fond of the half time "entertainment at those games: A 15 minute anti drug lecture by one of their players holding a mic at center court and delivered in a monotone. My wife had to wipe the drool off me and slap me awake for the 2nd half.

*I think he played for Tennessee or Tennessee State in college.

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That would be 5'7" Keith "Mister" Jennings. Played for E. Tennessee St. 1987-1991

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His sister was 5'4" Keila "Miss" Jennings. Never played anywhere: terrible shooter!

I sit closer to you on this. The problem with numbers is they can alway support whatever narrative is necessary. We make good passes, it's that when we do turn it over they're the kind that directly lead to points for the opponents. I've been on high TO teams that win championships because they happen differently.

We have a lot of problems but presenting it this way is how new coaches get jobs and dont win games

Defense is definitely our biggest problem

Saw a cal tweet that says cal scored 80+ points last 5 games

But it seems to me we have an unusually number of unforced turnovers

Still don't know understand how it can already be concluded that "Madsen doesn't have what it takes" based on a couple of factors.

First of all, last year he was hired after the season in which Fox left him an absolute mess - the worst in the history of Cal basketball. Based on the timing of everything MM had a limited chance to bring in a team with a future so he opted for the "quick fix" the first year, bringing in one-year guys, in order to just bring the program back to respectability.

While this year has had its flaws, at least now we have a team where hopefully some of the players will be back next year, and in the case of Stojakovic and Wilkinson maybe two more years. And yes, most of our wins have been against teams that we are "supposed to beat", but the team is still 7-4, and almost everyone agrees that this year's team is deeper and more balanced than last year's team. And yes, this is only year 2.

So let's pump the brakes a little. And E141, with all due respect I don't recall anyone on this board stating that Madsen is on a 5 year project. I really think regarding MM, that taking a step back on judgment is a good idea.

RedlessWardrobe said:

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Still don't know understand how it can already be concluded that "Madsen doesn't have what it takes" based on a couple of factors.

First of all, last year he was hired after the season in which Fox left him an absolute mess - the worst in the history of Cal basketball. Based on the timing of everything MM had a limited chance to bring in a team with a future so he opted for the "quick fix" the first year, bringing in one-year guys, in order to just bring the program back to respectability.

While this year has had its flaws, at least now we have a team where hopefully some of the players will be back next year, and in the case of Stojakovic and Wilkinson maybe two more years. And yes, most of our wins have been against teams that we are "supposed to beat", but the team is still 7-4, and almost everyone agrees that this year's team is deeper and more balanced than last year's team. And yes, this is only year 2.

So let's pump the brakes a little. And E141, with all due respect I don't recall anyone on this board stating that Madsen is on a 5 year project. I really think regarding MM, that taking a step back on judgment is a good idea.

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"now we have a team where hopefully some of the players will be back next year".

Marketing would like to license this phrase in their new campaign.

I know that sounded funny but hey - I'm just trying to keep up with the times.

I was feeling along the same lines as Redless on this, give Madsen some breathing room, let's stop calling for a pink slip just because the team has had a bad stretch this month. But the SDSU game really shook my confidence. 11 points in the first 15 minutes of a game is a red alert that the team is unprepared for anything resembling a good defense on the other side. Without a 2025 correction Madsen risks a disaster season.

barsad said:

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I was feeling along the same lines as Redless on this, give Madsen some breathing room, let's stop calling for a pink slip just because the team has had a bad stretch this month. But the SDSU game really shook my confidence. 11 points in the first 15 minutes of a game is a red alert that the team is unprepared for anything resembling a good defense on the other side. Without a 2025 correction Madsen risks a disaster season.

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Agreed, that was brutal. Maybe you could blame Madsen for preparation or in-game coaching, but from a practical standpoint when watching this game, it looked like the bigger problem was that the guys he recruited didn't stand a chance.

RedlessWardrobe said:

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barsad said:

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I was feeling along the same lines as Redless on this, give Madsen some breathing room, let's stop calling for a pink slip just because the team has had a bad stretch this month. But the SDSU game really shook my confidence. 11 points in the first 15 minutes of a game is a red alert that the team is unprepared for anything resembling a good defense on the other side. Without a 2025 correction Madsen risks a disaster season.

---

Agreed, that was brutal. Maybe you could blame Madsen for preparation or in-game coaching, but from a practical standpoint when watching this game, it looked like the bigger problem was that the guys he recruited didn't stand a chance.

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We have mid major players who are not good enough.

oskidunker said:

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RedlessWardrobe said:

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barsad said:

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I was feeling along the same lines as Redless on this, give Madsen some breathing room, let's stop calling for a pink slip just because the team has had a bad stretch this month. But the SDSU game really shook my confidence. 11 points in the first 15 minutes of a game is a red alert that the team is unprepared for anything resembling a good defense on the other side. Without a 2025 correction Madsen risks a disaster season.

---

Agreed, that was brutal. Maybe you could blame Madsen for preparation or in-game coaching, but from a practical standpoint when watching this game, it looked like the bigger problem was that the guys he recruited didn't stand a chance.

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We have mid major players who are not goid enough.

Goiters aside, live by the Dollar Store Portal, die by the Dollar Store portal.

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Fully agree with Oskidunker. This team simply is not that talented.

oskidunker said:

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RedlessWardrobe said:

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barsad said:

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I was feeling along the same lines as Redless on this, give Madsen some breathing room, let's stop calling for a pink slip just because the team has had a bad stretch this month. But the SDSU game really shook my confidence. 11 points in the first 15 minutes of a game is a red alert that the team is unprepared for anything resembling a good defense on the other side. Without a 2025 correction Madsen risks a disaster season.

---

Agreed, that was brutal. Maybe you could blame Madsen for preparation or in-game coaching, but from a practical standpoint when watching this game, it looked like the bigger problem was that the guys he recruited didn't stand a chance.

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We have mid major players who are not good enough.

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Certainly true for some players, but not all. Example: Sissoko started for Michigan St. and he's playing well. The problem is, they don't use him effectively on offense. I saw him make a nice jump hook a few games back and I think a turnaround shot from 5-6 ft against SD St. Both had nice form which tells me he can hit them repeatedly. They should intentionally be getting him 5-6 shots per game.

We almost never get the ball into our posting up bigs

Especially in a game like that where nothing was working you'd think they would at least try

Sissoko is a warrior

HearstMining said:

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oskidunker said:

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RedlessWardrobe said:

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barsad said:

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I was feeling along the same lines as Redless on this, give Madsen some breathing room, let's stop calling for a pink slip just because the team has had a bad stretch this month. But the SDSU game really shook my confidence. 11 points in the first 15 minutes of a game is a red alert that the team is unprepared for anything resembling a good defense on the other side. Without a 2025 correction Madsen risks a disaster season.

---

Agreed, that was brutal. Maybe you could blame Madsen for preparation or in-game coaching, but from a practical standpoint when watching this game, it looked like the bigger problem was that the guys he recruited didn't stand a chance.

---

We have mid major players who are not good enough.

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Certainly true for some players, but not all. Example: Sissoko started for Michigan St. and he's playing well. The problem is, they don't use him effectively on offense. I saw him make a nice jump hook a few games back and I think a turnaround shot from 5-6 ft against SD St. Both had nice form which tells me he can hit them repeatedly. They should intentionally be getting him 5-6 shots per game.

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HoopDreams said:

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We almost never get the ball into our posting up bigs

Especially in a game like that where nothing was working you'd think they would at least try

Sissoko is a warrior

HearstMining said:

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oskidunker said:

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We have mid major players who are not good enough.

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Certainly true for some players, but not all. Example: Sissoko started for Michigan St. and he's playing well. The problem is, they don't use him effectively on offense. I saw him make a nice jump hook a few games back and I think a turnaround shot from 5-6 ft against SD St. Both had nice form which tells me he can hit them repeatedly. They should intentionally be getting him 5-6 shots per game.

---

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One of the VERY few useful things that the MFer did was to recognize Andre Kelly was his only inside offensive player and get the ball to him.

HearstMining said:

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bearister said:

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"Where do we find these teams?"

Do you remember Athletes in Action? They were as close as Cal could get to booking the Washington Generals. However, one year they had a little guard whose nickname was Mr. Something or other* and he dropped close to 40 on us in Harmon. He ended up making a slot on the Warriors for a short stint.

*I was particularly fond of the half time "entertainment at those games: A 15 minute anti drug lecture by one of their players holding a mic at center court and delivered in a monotone. My wife had to wipe the drool off me and slap me awake for the 2nd half.

*I think he played for Tennessee or Tennessee State in college.

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That would be 5'7" Keith "Mister" Jennings. Played for E. Tennessee St. 1987-1991

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As Gary Radnich used to say, "Good knowledge." I'm no longer sure he was on Athletes in Action. Did the Dutch have an amateur touring team?

Keith Jennings (basketball) - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Jennings_(basketball)

HearstMining said:

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HoopDreams said:

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We almost never get the ball into our posting up bigs

Especially in a game like that where nothing was working you'd think they would at least try

Sissoko is a warrior

HearstMining said:

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oskidunker said:

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We have mid major players who are not good enough.

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Certainly true for some players, but not all. Example: Sissoko started for Michigan St. and he's playing well. The problem is, they don't use him effectively on offense. I saw him make a nice jump hook a few games back and I think a turnaround shot from 5-6 ft against SD St. Both had nice form which tells me he can hit them repeatedly. They should intentionally be getting him 5-6 shots per game.

---

---

One of the VERY few useful things that the MFer did was to recognize Andre Kelly was his only inside offensive player and get the ball to him.

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Andre Kelly was a far better offensive player than any of our bigs, but Sissoko can score inside (despite his airball floater). He also was the only player who was effective in this game and got their second best big in foul trouble.

In a game where nothing was working we needed to do something different. Perhaps they would have just collapsed on him as soon as he got the ball, but I was watching and several times we took contested 3s with Sissoko or Dort open.

by the way, this is the first game I've seen both in the game at the same time. However it looked like they weren't used to playing together as it lead to an immediate uncontested dunk because neither accounted for the big.

work in progress

The nba offense Madsen runs needs highly skilled D1 players. It is not working with what we have. He should implement some of Mike Montgomerys sets or we are toast in the ACC

Yes, he also needs athletes that are equal to or better than opponent

That's not been the case with any of our losses

I give Madden a pass on Cornell as sometimes a disciplined experienced team can just beat you sometimes

oskidunker said:

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The nba offense Madsen runs needs highly skilled D1 players. It is not working with what we have. He should implement some of Mike Montgomerys sets or we are toast in the ACC

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Econ141 said:

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Hope I am wrong but I don't think Madsen has what it takes. You don't get 5 years to turn a program around now that the portal exists. My biggest fear now is classy, friendly guys, that are average coaches. This has mediocre coach that will stick around at Cal for very long time, written all over it.

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Agree. Basketball is not football, so the time frame to turn it around is much quicker. And like you said, with the portal, if things don't look like they are going in the right direction, players can/will leave for better opportunities, lowering the talent level each year. Meanwhile, more fans simply stop paying attention.

Regardless of what you or I think though, since this is Cal, Madsen will have all the time in the world to prove us right or wrong. 19 more games to go and none of the opponents are named Mercyhurst or Northwestern State. Can he exceed 13 wins?

HKBear97! said:

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Econ141 said:

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Hope I am wrong but I don't think Madsen has what it takes. You don't get 5 years to turn a program around now that the portal exists. My biggest fear now is classy, friendly guys, that are average coaches. This has mediocre coach that will stick around at Cal for very long time, written all over it.

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Agree. Basketball is not football, so the time frame to turn it around is much quicker. And like you said, with the portal, if things don't look like they are going in the right direction, players can/will leave for better opportunities, lowering the talent level each year. Meanwhile, more fans simply stop paying attention.

Regardless of what you or I think though, since this is Cal, Madsen will have all the time in the world to prove us right or wrong. 19 more games to go and none of the opponents are named Mercyhurst or Northwestern State. Can he exceed 13 wins?

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No

HKBear97! said:

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Econ141 said:

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Hope I am wrong but I don't think Madsen has what it takes. You don't get 5 years to turn a program around now that the portal exists. My biggest fear now is classy, friendly guys, that are average coaches. This has mediocre coach that will stick around at Cal for very long time, written all over it.

---

Agree. Basketball is not football, so the time frame to turn it around is much quicker. And like you said, with the portal, if things don't look like they are going in the right direction, players can/will leave for better opportunities, lowering the talent level each year. Meanwhile, more fans simply stop paying attention.

Regardless of what you or I think though, since this is Cal, Madsen will have all the time in the world to prove us right or wrong. 19 more games to go and none of the opponents are named Mercyhurst or Northwestern State. Can he exceed 13 wins?

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the players who will be recruited are Andrej and Wilkerson, if they aren't already. Omot might be another one.

we better have a big enough NIL bag to keep them and surround them with good players ...

Madsen is roughly on my schedule, at least with respect to bringing in players. Given that Cal basketball was a toxic 5hit-hole when he arrived, I thought the scenario may play out like this:

• Year 1 - Can only attract players who are desperate to play due to previous injury, buried on lower level teams, probably in their last year of eligibility. May not attract good candidates for all positions. Too late to attract any HS recruits.
• Year 2 - Having gotten Tyson to the NBA, Cal now attractive to better players. Those either in their last year from a Power 5 school, or rotation players with multiple years of eligibility left. May attract a good HS recruit or two.
• Year 3 - Keep your best players to establish a real culture and style of play. Attract a couple of more starters/rotation players from competitive programs with >1 year of eligibility, get another HS or overseas recruit.

For this path to work, Madsen has to implement a scheme that works with players strengths and build a reputation for winning games against good, maybe not great opponents (yet). This is what's not happening yet, this season.