ON reflection - the sky is NOT falling ;-)

1,927 Views | 22 Replies | Last: 15 days ago by BearlyCareAnymore
socaltownie
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So I won't divulge insider board stuff but suffice it to say that MM will have a bit more ammo. Lets also keep in mind that TT Carr _IS_ coming back and there were games early on that he showed seriously good flashes for a PG. Guys that followed him in HS suggest he is prepared to take a major step up - and IIRC his free throw shooting significantly improved as the season went on.

There are now over 1000 players in the portal. That was a count this morning so likely more. MM has shown significant ability to scout and get talent - especially this year when you look at the ON rankings for our guys (which were DECIDEDLY pedestrian).

And I am NOT convinced that Pippen could not return. _IF_ MM has the ammo and can put guys on the court I could see it - there are a TON of guards out (many who declared today) there who are going to command more interest than Justin and ultimately the Bag may not be there. With the 15 day window you have to believe that there are a lot of "you gotta let us know in 3 hours." sorts of offers so I could see a lot of slots disappearing and Cal actually be in a decent place.

I just a bit of research, for example, found out that Kyle Evans of UCI is in the portal and honestly he would be as good (better?) than Dort as a pure rim protector. Not sure if he is in our price range - he will get a lot of interest as the Defensive player of the year at UCI and already with some decent post moves. (As an aside - why could we not get him out of HS).



Take care of your Chicken
Johnfox
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Kyle Evans is a baller. I really liked watching him play at UCI.
HKBear97!
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socaltownie said:

So I won't divulge insider board stuff but suffice it to say that MM will have a bit more ammo. Lets also keep in mind that TT Carr _IS_ coming back and there were games early on that he showed seriously good flashes for a PG. Guys that followed him in HS suggest he is prepared to take a major step up - and IIRC his free throw shooting significantly improved as the season went on.

There are now over 1000 players in the portal. That was a count this morning so likely more. MM has shown significant ability to scout and get talent - especially this year when you look at the ON rankings for our guys (which were DECIDEDLY pedestrian).

And I am NOT convinced that Pippen could not return. _IF_ MM has the ammo and can put guys on the court I could see it - there are a TON of guards out (many who declared today) there who are going to command more interest than Justin and ultimately the Bag may not be there. With the 15 day window you have to believe that there are a lot of "you gotta let us know in 3 hours." sorts of offers so I could see a lot of slots disappearing and Cal actually be in a decent place.

I just a bit of research, for example, found out that Kyle Evans of UCI is in the portal and honestly he would be as good (better?) than Dort as a pure rim protector. Not sure if he is in our price range - he will get a lot of interest as the Defensive player of the year at UCI and already with some decent post moves. (As an aside - why could we not get him out of HS).





LOL - the insider board here is and has always been the "glass is half full" crowd when it comes to anything Cal-sports related. With that said, Madsen and staff did put together a decent team from underrated players last year. Of course, the incredibly soft OOC schedule and what turned out to be a rather unimpressive ACC conference helped with the win total. Either way, won't really know much until the season starts up again!
HoopDreams
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Not to beat a dead horse but the extremely soft OOC schedule resulted in Cal almost entirely sweeping those earlier games

In the past we would have dropped a few

That was an improvement
northbay
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It's a totally different era of college basketball but I enjoyed watching both Cal and non-Cal basketball as much as any year in recent memory.

And there are some really exciting (and hopefully affordable names) for us to reload, including guys who might be under the radar (I assume Kyle Evans will cost way more than what we are comfortable with due to a lack of bigs in the portal).

Here are some guys I would 100% pursue or at least kick the tires on:

Eian Elmer: forward, Miami Ohio, rising senior
The best player on Miami OH IMO. Career 41% 3 point shooter with room to increase volume while maintaining efficiency (went 6-9 against SMU in the First 4). Played admirable defense against much larger post players due to Miami OH's lack of size. He's at the very top of my portal wishlist for Cal.

Liam Campbell: shooting guard, St Mary's, rising sophomore
Not really sure why he didn't play or feature more for St Mary's as I was super impressed by him in their NIT loss. A natural scorer with confidence, size and toughness. He looks like somebody that you can project into a starting role next year.

Tyrone Riley: wing, USF, rising junior
The couple times I saw the Dons, I also felt like Riley should have featured more. Good athletic tools, seems to play hard and a developing offensive game. He's on the radar as an NBA 3 & D wing so he could be both out of our budget and also looking for a specific spot/system.

Sebastian Rancik: power forward, Colorado, rising junior
99th overall RSCI recruit in the 2024 class and had a productive sophomore year in the B12. Can easily slide into Camden's role. Inconsistent shooter but a better defender, better off the bounce, and better at creating for others.

JT Rock: center, New Mexico, rising junior
He's a 7 footer with legitimate stretch shooting abilities. Raw and still developing including his strength & conditioning. His career high in minutes is 23 but he's been effective in stretches.

Abdi Bashir Jr: shooting guard, Kansas State, rising senior
One of the best shooters in college basketball. No idea what his market will look like but Cal's uptempo offense seems like a great fit.

Isaac Celiscar: forward, Yale, rising senior
I was impressed by him in the Ivy tourney and their NIT loss. Ivy leaguers are always hard to project but he has a really solid all around game.

Amari Evans: shooting guard, Tennessee, rising sophomoe
72nd overall RSCI recruit in the 2025 class and got more minutes as the season progressed. Definitely has the athleticism to play in the ACC & is a willing defender. Seems like he would be in line for a larger role with Gillespie graduating and Ament going to the draft so maybe he's looking for both a bigger role AND a bigger payday? Shooting looks like a work in progress.

Tyler Harris: wing, Vandy, rising senior
A Hayward native and Granada HS grad, Harris will be at his 4th school in 4 years. A bright spot on a terrible 24/25 UW team, Harris progressively lost minutes as Vandy's season went along because his 3 ball went from 49.5% in 24/25 to 29% this season & their whole offense was Tyler Tanner driving and kicking.

Brady Dunlap: wing, St Louis, rising junior (assuming he received a medical redshirt for 24/25)
A SoCal native and pure shooting specialist (45% on the season). Likely looking for more minutes as he's been strictly a bench player so far & likely affordable due to lack of all around game.

Scotty Middleton: wing, Tulane, rising senior
49th overall RSCI recruit in the 2023 class and will be on his 4th school in 4 years. Willing defender, has some athleticism and can (usually) hit spot up 3s. I would assume he's looking for a spot to showcase wider parts of his game but his college production has been disappointing so far.

Jake Wilkins: wing, Georgia, rising sophomore
42nd overall RSCI recruit in the 2025 class and Dominique's son. He would dramatically improve our team's athleticism but is a work in progress as a basketball player.

Mazi Mosley: shooting guard, LSU, rising sophomore
76th overall RSCI recruit in the 2025 class, from Southern California and was offered by Cal. Like Justin Pippen, he hardly saw any court time for a bad LSU team. But unlike Pippen, he's probably not an immediate plug and play guy.

Koren Johnson: combo guard, Ole Miss, rising senior
He was Pac12 6th man of the year in 23/24 but his career has completely nose dived since leaving UW. A Seattle native so maybe getting back to the West Coast can help?
BC Calfan
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Awesome list Northbay. I'd like to add one more:

JJ Mandaquit PG - UW, from Hawaii. A high profile guy: Team USA, McDonald's AA. Probably very expensive but you never know. Not sure if he ever visited but we offered. He may appreciate how Pippen resurrected his career here and would like to do the same.
socaltownie
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I keep looking to see if jeb hall enters. I casually know dad. Original ucsd who followed coach and has a gteat three point shot. Dad at least would value the ucb degree and i have to believe that new mex is nil constrained
Take care of your Chicken
BeachedBear
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As of this morning, I have seen that half of D1 MBB players are in the portal.

Instead of pulling my hair out when 3 Cal players enter, I am seeing it as....

Why are so many other Cal players NOT in the portal?


(I know the answer -we had a VERY short bench. And those players did not demonstrate much value - so probably are better of sticking it here for another year hoping to move up the bench. Anyone who demonstrated anything of value is in the portal or out of eligibility).


Time will tell....
socaltownie
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BeachedBear said:

As of this morning, I have seen that half of D1 MBB players are in the portal.

Instead of pulling my hair out when 3 Cal players enter, I am seeing it as....

Why are so many other Cal players NOT in the portal?


(I know the answer -we had a VERY short bench. And those players did not demonstrate much value - so probably are better of sticking it here for another year hoping to move up the bench. Anyone who demonstrated anything of value is in the portal or out of eligibility).


Time will tell....

Yeah. I like that we won 20+ games but chatter on Reddit (not influenced by the Blue and Gold koolaid on BI) points out that Pippin disappeared during critical games down the stretch and his 3 ball significantly fell off the last 1/5 of the season. Might have been legs but maybe not and paying 3 million for him - when we don't know what that might get you is loyalty to the player in a period of absolutely zero loyalty to the institution or team. At 1 or 1.5 sure. But you can't spend 30-40-50% of NIL on Justin alone.
Take care of your Chicken
BeachedBear
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socaltownie said:

BeachedBear said:

As of this morning, I have seen that half of D1 MBB players are in the portal.

Instead of pulling my hair out when 3 Cal players enter, I am seeing it as....

Why are so many other Cal players NOT in the portal?


(I know the answer -we had a VERY short bench. And those players did not demonstrate much value - so probably are better of sticking it here for another year hoping to move up the bench. Anyone who demonstrated anything of value is in the portal or out of eligibility).


Time will tell....

Yeah. I like that we won 20+ games but chatter on Reddit (not influenced by the Blue and Gold koolaid on BI) points out that Pippin disappeared during critical games down the stretch and his 3 ball significantly fell off the last 1/5 of the season. Might have been legs but maybe not and paying 3 million for him - when we don't know what that might get you is loyalty to the player in a period of absolutely zero loyalty to the institution or team. At 1 or 1.5 sure. But you can't spend 30-40-50% of NIL on Justin alone.

Yeah - looks like a very inefficient market. We are better off playing it smart and not making desperation moves.

If Pippin, Dort and Ames can make the kind of money I am hearing - then best of luck to them and no hard feelings.

If this continues for a few more seasons (I have no idea how long this will continue), then Cal may earn a reputation as an excellent launching pad for proving up and coming talent and having them earn some real bank. While it may mean a new set of Pippin & Ames each year and likely never making the Tourney - that may very well be Cal and Madsen's sweet spot.

And I'm OK with that for a few seasons (but not longer term - I miss getting to know the players and thinking about how a team comes together over the course of multiple seasons). That level of success, albeit mediocre, may bring back some of us donors who Knowlton and Christ ran off.
northbay
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1000000000% agree.

The ACC is always going to be a draw because players get tape against blue bloods like Duke and UNC and solid progrmas like Louisville and Virginia.

And there will always be guys at high major programs who need a change of scenery or excelled at the mid major level and want to level up.

Tyson, Dai Dai, Pippen, Dort, Camden, Bell, Stojakovic and Wilkinson all improved their prospects without breaking the bank for us, which should be a selling point this portal season.

So the talent identification and development is in place and I have confidence we will have another group of solid guys for next year.

I view college sports now through the professional soccer model, where outside of a small handful of giant clubs, every team's business model includes some degree of developing and selling off talent & then replacing them.
Bobodeluxe
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Why not just go all in on hiring the best high school players available? The Berkeley Bears cannot compete with big spenders to hire portal players. Come to Berkeley. Play a lot on a decent sized stage, and maximize your payday next year. High schoolers might take the bait($), and sign up for a year of easy money.
ManBearLion123
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Bobodeluxe said:

Why not just go all in on hiring the best high school players available? The Berkeley Bears cannot compete with big spenders to hire portal players. Come to Berkeley. Play a lot on a decent sized stage, and maximize your payday next year. High schoolers might take the bait($), and sign up for a year of easy money.

The best HS players are also extremely expensive...
northbay
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Bobodeluxe said:

Why not just go all in on hiring the best high school players available? The Berkeley Bears cannot compete with big spenders to hire portal players. Come to Berkeley. Play a lot on a decent sized stage, and maximize your payday next year. High schoolers might take the bait($), and sign up for a year of easy money.

A ton of highly ranked recruits (even if we can afford them) don't ever turn into productive players, much less make immediate impacts.

For every under the radar guy like Wagler or Jeremiah Wilkinson, there's a bunch of other flameouts or guys who need multiple years of development.

Just look at the RSCI 100 from this last class and see how few outside the top 30 were major contributors: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/awards/men/rsci-recruit-rankings-2025.html

calumnus
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International players currently cannot accept NIL. Cal has a huge comparative advantage there if we have staff that can identify and recruit the players.
ManBearLion123
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calumnus said:

International players currently cannot accept NIL. Cal has a huge comparative advantage there if we have staff that can identify and recruit the players.

Could be wrong but I'm almost certain that schools are finding a way to pay international players. A lot of international guys are leaving European pro ball (and/or passing on the NBA draft) to play at the college level.

That surely wouldn't be so common if they weren't getting paid large sums to play at the college level.
calumnus
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ManBearLion123 said:

calumnus said:

International players currently cannot accept NIL. Cal has a huge comparative advantage there if we have staff that can identify and recruit the players.

Could be wrong but I'm almost certain that schools are finding a way to pay international players. A lot of international guys are leaving European pro ball (and/or passing on the NBA draft) to play at the college level.

That surely wouldn't be so common if they weren't getting paid large sums to play at the college level.

It isn't yet "common," it only recently became legal for former "professional" players to be eligible under NCAA rules.

Players on F-1 student visas cannot even receive true "name, image and likeness" revenue in the U.S. They can only receive income from foreign entities, for work done outside the U.S. Cal is as well positioned as any school to use its international connections. As I said in the other thread, Cal basketball alum Richard Chang is president of COSTCO Asia.

Name a few players that you are thinking of and we can look up their situation.
ManBearLion123
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calumnus said:

ManBearLion123 said:

calumnus said:

International players currently cannot accept NIL. Cal has a huge comparative advantage there if we have staff that can identify and recruit the players.

Could be wrong but I'm almost certain that schools are finding a way to pay international players. A lot of international guys are leaving European pro ball (and/or passing on the NBA draft) to play at the college level.

That surely wouldn't be so common if they weren't getting paid large sums to play at the college level.

It isn't yet "common," it only recently became legal for former "professional" players to be eligible under NCAA rules.

Players on F-1 student visas cannot even receive true "name, image and likeness" revenue in the U.S. They can only receive income from foreign entities, for work done outside the U.S. Cal is as well positioned as any school to use its international connections. As I said in the other thread, Cal basketball alum Richard Chang is president of COSTCO Asia.

Name a few players that you are thinking of and we can look up their situation.

Neoklis Avdalas. David Mirkovic. Zvonimor and Tomislav Ivisic. Mario Saint-Supery. Thijs De Ridder.

There are many, many more on that list. This is very common.

Two Euro pros just committed to Penn State yesterday!
BearlyCareAnymore
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BeachedBear said:

socaltownie said:

BeachedBear said:

As of this morning, I have seen that half of D1 MBB players are in the portal.

Instead of pulling my hair out when 3 Cal players enter, I am seeing it as....

Why are so many other Cal players NOT in the portal?


(I know the answer -we had a VERY short bench. And those players did not demonstrate much value - so probably are better of sticking it here for another year hoping to move up the bench. Anyone who demonstrated anything of value is in the portal or out of eligibility).


Time will tell....

Yeah. I like that we won 20+ games but chatter on Reddit (not influenced by the Blue and Gold koolaid on BI) points out that Pippin disappeared during critical games down the stretch and his 3 ball significantly fell off the last 1/5 of the season. Might have been legs but maybe not and paying 3 million for him - when we don't know what that might get you is loyalty to the player in a period of absolutely zero loyalty to the institution or team. At 1 or 1.5 sure. But you can't spend 30-40-50% of NIL on Justin alone.

Yeah - looks like a very inefficient market. We are better off playing it smart and not making desperation moves.

If Pippin, Dort and Ames can make the kind of money I am hearing - then best of luck to them and no hard feelings.

If this continues for a few more seasons (I have no idea how long this will continue), then Cal may earn a reputation as an excellent launching pad for proving up and coming talent and having them earn some real bank. While it may mean a new set of Pippin & Ames each year and likely never making the Tourney - that may very well be Cal and Madsen's sweet spot.

And I'm OK with that for a few seasons (but not longer term - I miss getting to know the players and thinking about how a team comes together over the course of multiple seasons). That level of success, albeit mediocre, may bring back some of us donors who Knowlton and Christ ran off.

So, I agree with you guys on not panicking and no desperation and playing it smart, but I can't agree on the general trend. Assuming that these guys do leave and do so for money, this is a big problem. This would be three straight years we have lost almost all of our production to ending eligibility and through the portal.

There is no reason to think that every player we have is overvalued on the market and we know that and others don't. I don't think it is an inefficient market. I think you guys aren't keeping up with the market. If Socaltownie knows that Pippin disappeared at times and his 3 ball fell off significantly, FSU certainly knows that and it factors into the price of $3M. You are talking 3 decent, not great, players that are in our building that we can't afford to keep, after losing our only 2 decent not great players last year.

Pippen is not worth $3M to us because we can't afford it. Not because he isn't worth $3M. The result of that is we put the money toward a bunch of risky prospects and hope they add up to the value of Pippen.
Bobodeluxe
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You sign 12 fairly highly rated high schoolers, at $300k a pop, you should get five who could start on a nit level team. More fun than what's happening at Haas these days.
BeachedBear
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Bobodeluxe said:

You sign 12 fairly highly rated high schoolers, at $300k a pop, you should get five who could start on a nit level team. More fun than what's happening at Haas these days.

Except, I think your $300k a pop number is way too low for highly rated high schoolers.

And I think that 12 freshman would actually be significantly worse to watch than what was happening in Haas last season.

Last time a freshman laden class was fun to watch would be Kidd/Murray or maybe Brown/Rabb. Both of those today would be MUCH MUCH Higher than the $3.6M you suggest.

Big C
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^ not trying to nitpick, but i'm pretty sure Lamond Murray was a year ahead of Kidd... still, point taken
BearlyCareAnymore
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BeachedBear said:

Bobodeluxe said:

You sign 12 fairly highly rated high schoolers, at $300k a pop, you should get five who could start on a nit level team. More fun than what's happening at Haas these days.

Except, I think your $300k a pop number is way too low for highly rated high schoolers.

And I think that 12 freshman would actually be significantly worse to watch than what was happening in Haas last season.

Last time a freshman laden class was fun to watch would be Kidd/Murray or maybe Brown/Rabb. Both of those today would be MUCH MUCH Higher than the $3.6M you suggest.



As BigC said, Kidd was a year behind Murray and our results with the very highly rated Murray, Grigsby class sucked and were not fun to watch. (they were certainly very fun to watch as Sophs with Kidd as a Frosh.) Powe/Ubaka class sucked and not fun to watch. I'd say Brown/Rabb were fun to watch but they weren't all frosh. Another heavily freshman team was the Rockfish class who basically had to be carried by Junior Lampley for a season.

As I said. Money is the only real answer, but you'd be better trying to identify guys like Pippen who did little but are ready to make a jump.
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