As someone who's done season previews a few times now, they’re always a bit tricky.
Scratch that. They get trickier by the season.
In the Pac-10 days, almost every team was returning the same roster, coaches, and competition. There wasn’t much to interpret, and the results usually followed the predictions. This has completely changed.
I bring that up because before I wrote this preview, I checked some other publications to see where the media believes we’ll finish in ACC play this season. The results were all over the place. But the one preview that was upsettingly lazy was the CBS Sports one. They picked us dead last. This was their rationale:
“After two seasons with losing records, Mark Madsen finally turned it around last year, winning 22 games. He will unfortunately need to put on the coaching performance of his life if he wants to get back to 22 wins, because the lack of NIL caught up to him hard, and the roster he’s left with doesn’t look like one of an ACC team.
Michael Cooper is the only player on this roster who averaged double digits last year, and it was at Wright State. They don’t have a clear lead guard either. Defense will be fine, but the offense is a scary sight.”
I guess.
What was even more interesting is what they had to say about Stanfurd, who they picked to finish 12th:
“From a roster budget standpoint, this team is most likely dead last. However, Kyle Smith always seems to do more with less, and that was reflected last year, when they were 10th in the conference with 22 wins. They won’t have Ebuka Okorie, unfortunately, who was unbelievable last year. But they brought in Christian Bliss, who they think could play a similar role to him.
If Nick Townsend is eligible, then the floor rises even higher after he averaged 16 a game at Yale. Plus, if you want to feel old, you can watch freshman Aziz Olajuwon, who is the son of NBA Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon. Again, far from the most talented roster on paper, Kyle Smith finds ways to win, and that’s the difference-maker between them and the teams below them.”
I will give CBS Sports the benefit of the doubt and assume they were just lazy this season because this preview makes absolutely no sense to me.
Last season, according to 247Sports, Cal came in with the 79th-rated recruiting class in the country, 51st in transfers, and 16th in the ACC. With that, we were able to pull off a 9th-place finish. This season we have the 56th-rated class, 9th in the ACC, and CBS figures we will be much worse than last season. Even crazier, they note that Stanfurd has the worst talent in the league, but their coaching will make up for it.
So the rationale is that we somehow have less talent than last season, when we were picked last and had worse recruits, and this season, with a miracle coaching performance under Madsen’s belt and a better class, the Bears are supposed to finish at the bottom of the conference. Make that make sense.
Thankfully, ESPN had a much better analysis, picking us to finish as high as 9th this season:
“Under Mark Madsen, Cal won 22 games last season after a 14-win season in his debut in 2024-25. Last season's run included legit wins over North Carolina, SMU, UCLA and Miami. Unfortunately for him, he has lost 75% of his offensive production from that team. And for a school on the West Coast that travels across the country to play ACC games -- the Bears were 3-5 in league road games last season -- and also has just a 10.5% acceptance rate, it's not easy to replenish the talent. Lee Dort, a 6-foot-10 returnee, and four-star recruit Nicolas Mitrovic, a 6-foot-10 forward, will give Madsen talent in the post. That might not be enough to help this squad duplicate last season's results”
With ESPN, I agree with nearly every word. I have no idea how they can see it so differently than CBS (and others), but it appears that they have an actual basketball mind working in the facility. Either way, I included both previews for a reason. With so many new players, anyone can see the good or the bad. And with that comes expectations that don’t make sense.
Regardless, I have my own thoughts. I believe we can finish 9th in the ACC once again. I don’t think we’ll get to 20 wins, but 17-19 feels like a good number. Allow me to break down why.
Madsen.
The same credit CBS gave to Kyle Smith is the same respect they should have put on Madsen’s name. I’m unsure there are many coaches in the nation who have done more with less. If anything, he’s so good at it that we never get a decent projection. If there’s one thing I can count on, regardless of the record, the players will leave Cal as better basketball players than they came in.
We didn’t just bring in guys. We brought very specific pieces.
Indrusaitis, Cooper, Wilkins, Ali, they all have very specific strengths. There’s shooting, playmaking, and athleticism in each of them. If the Madsen boost holds true, I don’t see why at least one of those guys doesn’t expand his game to become something extra that nobody sees coming. I specifically expect Indrusaitis to challenge for leading scorer and get some big buckets for us this year. That’s not even accounting for our returning guys. Who’s to say? Maybe Dort becomes a reliable double-double as well.
Sammie Yeanay.
What nobody can see coming is Sammie Yeanay’s game. Every player I asked told me to look out for him, and the OSU exhibition confirmed what they told me. We lost a lot with Camden’s departure, but we may just be able to fill that gap with Yeanay. It won’t be the same. His game is much more tailored to score inside and play strong, but if he can hit 3s with some consistency, he could be one of the country’s most improved players and our leading scorer outright. And since there’s no scouting report on him, he can feast early in the season before he has to adjust.
Team cohesiveness.
Every season there’s at least 3-4 teams that fall apart as the season goes on. For a team to finish 16-18 in the ACC, it will likely take a coach on the hot seat, disgruntled guys, and/or injuries. We’ve had injuries in the past, but the other two things aren’t our issue. If we just keep it together, there’s no way we end up at the bottom of the conference. Meanwhile, we’ll watch as those teams slowly become “hero ball” teams because losing games means guys have to go for stats to get their paycheck next year.
With those factors, I don’t see how we finish any worse than 12th. But if the players can figure it out after a treacherous schedule to start the year, maybe we can push as high as 9th again. All our toughest games are on the road, so we will have to protect home court at every chance, make sure to beat Stanfurd twice, and pull off a couple of unlikely road wins, but I think it’s possible.
No matter what, I know that it’s gonna be a rollercoaster. So be prepared for everything. Highlight dunks from Wilkins sometimes. Head-scratching plays other times.
We’re still building. The cool thing is that we’re on the right track. And after this season is over, I doubt anyone will feel differently.
