During the last four games of the Western Conference Finals (excluding Game 1 where the Warriors simply had a bad game), the home team has won the game by an average of almost 22 points.

Looking at the stats, the huge disparity in the FT attempted and made for the home team vs. the away team is glaring. Equally important, is the fouls the refs call and how the foul troubles of key players impact the game.

Here are the stats:

Game 2 (at GS): GS: 19-28, OKC: 14-19
Game 3 (at OKC): OKC: 33-37, GS: 19-25
Game 4 (at OKC): OKC: 31-40, GS: 19-29
Game 5: (at GS): GS: 31-34, OKC:19-29

Overall: Home Team: 114-139 (82%), Away Team: 71-102 (69%)

That means the home team is awarded an average of almost 9 more FTs a game and converts an average of 11 more Fts a game.

That is a huge disparity which is a major reason for the home team winning the last four games.

The away team gets called for an average of 3 more personal fouls per a game. More importantly is how and when those fouls are called and how it impacts the foul troubles of key players.

Are the foul calls and FT disparity because the refs are influenced by the crowd, crowd intimidation and crowd noise?

Is the disparity because the home team is more aggressive and the road team is more timid?

Are there some other reasons?

Regardless, GS has a very uphill climb in the upcoming Game 6 at OKC.

Your thoughts?

Go Bears! Go Warriors! Go Sharks!

Yeah, South Bender, what do you make of that?
And how much money is a playoff game worth again?
The league likes games, and happy fans.

South Bender?!

calbear80;842695613 said:

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During the last four games of the Western Conference Finals (excluding Game 1 where the Warriors simply had a bad game), the home team has won the game by an average of almost 22 points.

Looking at the stats, the huge disparity in the FT attempted and made for the home team vs. the away team is glaring. Equally important, is the fouls the refs call and how the foul troubles of key players impact the game.

Here are the stats:

Game 2 (at GS): GS: 19-28, OKC: 14-19
Game 3 (at OKC): OKC: 33-37, GS: 19-25
Game 4 (at OKC): OKC: 31-40, GS: 19-29
Game 5: (at GS): GS: 31-34, OKC:19-29

Overall: Home Team: 114-139 (82%), Away Team: 71-102 (69%)

That means the home team is awarded an average of almost 9 more FTs a game and converts an average of 11 more Fts a game.

That is a huge disparity which is a major reason for the home team winning the last four games.

The away team gets called for an average of 3 more personal fouls per a game. More importantly is how and when those fouls are called and how it impacts the foul troubles of key players.

Are the foul calls and FT disparity because the refs are influenced by the crowd, crowd intimidation and crowd noise?

Is the disparity because the home team is more aggressive and the road team is more timid?

Are there some other reasons?

Regardless, GS has a very uphill climb in the upcoming Game 6 at OKC.

Your thoughts?

Go Bears! Go Warriors! Go Sharks!

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Why are stats of first game omitted?

south bender;842695646 said:

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Why are stats of first game omitted?

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That is a good question. In the first game, GS played horribly and it was an unusual game as the home team lost (the only home loss for GS in around 50 home games this season). If someone would like to re-do the statistical analysis and include the first game, it would be interesting to see the results.

Go Bears! Go Warriors! Go Sharks!

calbear80;842695648 said:

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That is a good question. In the first game, GS played horribly and it was an unusual game as the home team lost (the only home loss for GS in around 50 home games this season). If someone would like to re-do the statistical analysis and include the first game, it would be interesting to see the results.

Go Bears! Go Warriors! Go Sharks!

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How about you? It would make your case better, if all data from this series were considered.

Yes, Go Bears!

south bender;842695649 said:

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How about you? It would make your case better, if all data from this series were considered.

Yes, Go Bears!

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Might also be better to look at how many of those free throws came on intentional fouls by the losing team late in the game. For the blowouts in Games 3 and 4 there probably wasn't much of that, but in Game 5 the Warriors definitely shot a bunch of FTs at the end because the Thunder were fouling to extend the game. The "unintentional" fouls from that game are probably pretty even.

Then there's also the hack-a strategies. In Game 4 OKC fouled Ezeli multiple times intentionally to stop a Warrior comeback, but that shouldn't be seen as the refs favoring Golden State.

Warriors did lose one at home this season to Minnesota I believe.

petalumabear;842695702 said:

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Warriors did lose one at home this season to Minnesota I believe.

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39-2 regular season home record, losses versus Celtics and Timberwolves.

Thanks Stryker.... I forgot about the Celts.... and was going from memory.... a risky proposition!

Don't feed the "animals" and give away 3FT's on low percentage shots.

OkC is milking the refs and the fouls.

Durant and Westbrook are floppers.

I thought there was a rule against flopping. I thought there was a rule against forearm shivers and body checking. Am I confusing it with hockey?

Who gets the calls next game?

that's a good question. NBA playoff games look like mud wrestling.

Two other factors that relate to the statistics are:
1) Westbrook constantly tries to run over people. He puts his head down and just rams into them. Of course, they often move a little to avoid getting hurt. Most of the time the ref's seem to be calling these ridiculous plays fouls on the Warriors. Sure, this is pretty common in the NBA< but Harden and Westbrook seem to gt away with it more than anyone else.
2) OK city is also intentionally fouling a lot (Bogut and Ezeli) because their free throw shooting sucks. This makes the fouls disparity even greater.

The NBA is rigged to maximize profits. Its subtle but evident. Try this one on - look for close call replays. In baseball and football they are cued up instantly. The NBA is deliberately delaying them and instead showing non-controversial replays from 2 plays earlier. The reason is that they are editing it for TV viewers. Here is the crazy part - the fans at the games are seeing them right away. This is the exact opposite of what most sports do in order to prevent crowds from going crazy. The NBA is editing home replays so 50 million people don't question ref calls. Then they instruct the refs to favor home teams and allow instant replays in the arenas. Its crazy! The Draymond kick was a perfect example - live the play was no big deal but when the arena saw it they went nuts (pun intended). So they had to call a foul on Draymond. And since they called it on him then they had to show the home viewers.

The NBA has a history of refs controlling outcomes - see the Sac Kings conference finals from 20 years ago when they got hosed in Game 6 just so the NBA can get a game 7. The NBA wants the W's and Thunder on Memorial Day in a Game 7. The Thunder might want to pucker up for Saturday.

petalumabear;842695742 said:

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that's a good question. NBA playoff games look like mud wrestling.

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Playoff hoops = let them play. The NCAA does it, so does the NBA.

beelzebear;842695766 said:

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Playoff hoops = let them play. The NCAA does it, so does the NBA.

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The NBA version is a bit over the top. You may not agree, and that's fine. The moving screens of the regular season become the grab, slide, block like an O-lineman and everything but tackle moving screens. The fouls are outright muggings until you get in the lane and then they are a bit more selective... certainly the NCAA is a lot tougher on their calls but also loosen up during the Tournament as you point out. I just think they go too far. Again, we can agree to disagree.

petalumabear;842695776 said:

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The NBA version is a bit over the top. You may not agree, and that's fine. The moving screens of the regular season become the grab, slide, block like an O-lineman and everything but tackle moving screens. The fouls are outright muggings until you get in the lane and then they are a bit more selective... certainly the NCAA is a lot tougher on their calls but also loosen up during the Tournament as you point out. I just think they go too far. Again, we can agree to disagree.

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I don't disagree because it goes from calling just about everything to calling nothing, or looking the other way. It is what it is...but both sides are getting it. OKC has a legit beef that Green didn't get suspended for a game.

beelzebear;842695779 said:

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I don't disagree because it goes from calling just about everything to calling nothing, or looking the other way. It is what it is...but both sides are getting it. OKC has a legit beef that Green didn't get suspended for a game.

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You know who only knows, but they call enough fouls as it is, but I don't think I have ever seen Adams totally set on a screen. That guy moves along the three point line at ease at picks off whatever he can and then gets away with it. Absurd.

petalumabear;842695742 said:

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NBA playoff games look like mud wrestling.

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Minus the boobs.

The delay / no reply has always been an issue with me

Tv production has fallen off

I do not believe that the NBA rigs games to extend a series. The consequences would be far worse than the potential gain. Yes, it could be done, but it would take a lot of people working together, and they would all have to trust one another 100%, and they would all have to benefit enough that it was worth the risk. I can't see a scenario where that many smart people would think it's a good idea.

An individual ref can influence things, as Donaghy showed, but I just don't believe the league itself is corrupt. They can make tons of money doing things honestly, why would they screw that up?

And the foul call disparity may not even be meaningful. Most of those games were blow outs: did the blow out cause the foul disparity, or was it the other way round? In other words, are these numbers significantly different from the average foul disparity in games with similar scores?