Current bracketology at ESPN: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2024-women-college-basketball-projections

So if this is close to reality, Cal needs to move ahead of eight teams to get into the tournament.

Let's say this is off, and Cal only has to be better than six teams.

None are great teams, or they wouldn't be on the bubble, so it would seem Cal's task is simple: Just win.

The question, though, is how many. One loss will certainly come in the tournament, but that's true of all the teams ahead of them. One loss will certainly come in the remaining regular season, but that's true of all the teams ahead of them.

Still, going 3-2 in the last five isn't exactly the stretch run the committee will look for.

Second, though, is the tournament, which has a huge recency bias for the committee -- or at least it has appeared so in the past. So even with two regular season losses, two wins in the tournament gets it done, I'd say. One win in the tournament? Probably not.

Ideally, Cal loses only to Stanford down the stretch, wins two games in the tournament and coasts into the tournament. Lose only to Stanford and win one in the tournament? Need some help from the six above.

Lose two in regular season play and win two in the tournament? In, I'd say.

Lose three down the stretch, and only a trip to the championship game saves the day.

My guess? It all comes down to the game at Oregon State on March 2.

I don't see us beating Stanford or OSU. OSU is playing as well anyone in the league. How can Washington, WSU, and Auburn all be ahead of us and none of them have beat us.

I think 18 and 12 gets us in. Pac 12 teams before with a losing record in conference have gotten in before. 18 and 12 would give us a 8 and 10 record in the Pac 12 and 7th place, Cal once got in with a 6 and 12 record and two years ago someone got in with a losing record in the Pac 12. All the teams above us are rated.

Women's College Basketball Standings - 2023-24 Atlantic Coast Conference Standings - ESPN

Here are the nine ACC teams that are projected into the NCAA Tourney. I think Cal has a better chance at upsetting Stanford in Palo Alto than they do beating Oregon State in Corvallis. Oregon State is the hottest team in the conference while Stanford is not playing well right now. Cal is playing their best of the season. Stanford played no better than Cal did to sweep the Washington schools.

Best bet is we go 3-2 over our last five, win one Pac 12 tourney game then go out and miss the NCAAs by a hair in which case we'll lament the loss at ASU as what cost us. Hoping I'm wrong. Alternatively, an upset over Furd, OSU or in second game of the Pac 12 tourney should squeeze us in.

You know if we win 3 out of 5, we really will have won 5 out of 7 of our last games. That is pretty good. I worry about Arizona. We have to sweep those schools.

Let's just win 'em all!

wvitbear-Esmery Martinez, Arizona's 5th year PF, got injured late in the fourth quarter last night vs USC. She had a collision with Rayah Marshall. She scored 20 points inside against Cal in Arizona. Of course, the Wildcats will have their best player back in SG, Gilbert.

Women's Basketball vs Arizona on 1/26/2024 - Box Score - California Golden Bears Athletics (calbears.com)

The interesting thing is this feels like a pennant race. Every game is important and anything can happen. I never assume we will win. Even against ASU. But the Arizona and Oregon are winnable too. But they are also losable. So every game will be intense. I'm glad the final two games of the Pc 12 league will give me a chance to say goodbye. Not counting the tournament.

well we have a shot to beat two current number one seeds in our remaining games

beating either or both will certainly improve our case

That's glass half full!