Questions for the Upcoming Season

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annarborbear
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10:40a, 6/21/24
To look to the future (i.e., next season), here is a list of questions that will need to be answered, and probably cannot be until we take the court. My guess is that most of these will need to turn out positively for us in order to make the NCAA tournament:

1. Can Michelle stay on the court for 28 minutes per game (vs 19 mpg last year)?
2. Can we still land a good international post? If not, can Claudia serve as an effective back-up to Michelle?
3. Can Marta increase her shooting percentages and decrease TO's?
4. Can Lulu become our second outside threat by increasing her shooting percentages?
5. Which freshmen will be ready to play? Can any make the all-ACC freshmen team?
6. Can Maul fully recover from her torn ACL in this second year?
7. Can Noble and Williams defensive skills make a difference if others can provide the scoring?
8. How will the increased travel play out, especially if we are relying on freshmen for significant contributions?
9. Last year's weaker teams in the ACC (and now including SMU) were Miami, Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, Clemson, Wake Forest, Pitt, and SMU. If we can beat all of these teams (we play each one once), who else can we beat to climb into 9th place and a potential NCAA selection?

At this point, it seems like everything is possible, but also everything is unknown.




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Schroeder71
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6:40p, 6/21/24
I have not checked out the results for last season for Southern Methodist University, yet. However, the prior year, the Mustangs visited the Bears in Berkeley for the "Raising the B.A.R. Invitational". SMU easily defeated Cal, 70-56, due to superior guard play. All three visiting guards were faster than those of the home team. I was super impressed by Southern Methodist on that Saturday afternoon. I'm not certain that they're one of the weak teams in the ACC.
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annarborbear
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In reply to Schroeder71 • 7:57p, 6/21/24
Schroeder71 said:
I have not checked out the results for last season for Southern Methodist University, yet. However, the prior year, the Mustangs visited the Bears in Berkeley for the "Raising the B.A.R. Invitational". SMU easily defeated Cal, 70-56, due to superior guard play. All three visiting guards were faster than those of the home team. I was super impressed by Southern Methodist on that Saturday afternoon. I'm not certain that they're one of the weak teams in the ACC.
They were 14-16 last year with a NET ranking of #132. Their leading scorer graduated. Their 3rd and 5th leading scorers transferred out. Their own portal group is unimpressive. They signed no freshmen in the ESPN Top 100. Looks like they have some overall problems at this time, and could be due for a coaching change.
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Schroeder71
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10:16a, 6/22/24
Thank you for the update on the SMU situation, annarborbear. I had a feeling that something must have changed for the Mustangs. GO BEARS!
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brevity
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11:30a, 6/22/24
After the presumed top tier of Notre Dame, Duke, NC State, and maybe Florida State and Louisville, the ACC looks wide open.

As a thought exercise, I considered the following three teams (just 8-player rotations) and wondered how I might rank them.

-- The best players to transfer out of the old ACC or Cal/SMU/Stanford this offseason
-- Notre Dame
-- The best players in the rest of the new ACC

Let's take a closer look.

Transferred Out, Not in ACC

Amirah Abdur-Rahim, 6-3 junior forward, Texas A&M (formerly SMU)
Georgia Amoore, 5-6 grad guard, Kentucky (formerly Virginia Tech)
Shayeann Day-Wilson, 5-6 senior guard, LSU (formerly Miami)
Kiki Iriafen, 6-3 senior forward, USC (formerly Stanford)
Deja Kelly, 5-8 senior guard, Oregon (formerly UNC)
Alyssa Latham, 6-2 sophomore forward, Tennessee (formerly Syracuse)
Mir McLean, 5-11 junior wing, Maryland (formerly Virginia)
Ruby Whitehorn, 5-11 junior guard, Tennessee (formerly Clemson)

Notre Dame

Sonia Citron, 6-1 senior guard
Hannah Hidalgo, 5-6 sophomore guard
Liza Karlen, 6-2 grad forward
Liatu King, 6-0 grad forward
Kate Koval, 6-5 freshman forward
Olivia Miles, 5-10 grad guard
Cassandre Prosper, 6-2 sophomore guard
Maddy Westbeld, 6-3 grad forward

ACC's Best of the Rest

Olivia Cochran, 6-3 grad forward, Louisville
Aziaha James, 5-9 senior guard, NC State
Ta'Niya Latson, 5-8 junior guard, Florida State
Tonie Morgan, 5-9 junior guard, Georgia Tech
Reigan Richardson, 5-11 senior guard, Duke
Saniya Rivers, 6-1 senior guard, NC State
Makayla Timpson, 6-2 senior forward, Florida State
Alyssa Ustby, 6-1 grad guard, UNC

In hypothetical matchups, I think Notre Dame is the strongest of the three, and the outgoing transfers are arguably better than the best of the rest.

We'll see how well Notre Dame performs together, but on paper, they are a top 4 team, with South Carolina, USC, and Texas. In the SEC/ACC Challenge, Stanford-LSU will get the headlines, but Texas-Notre Dame is the premier matchup, with Duke-South Carolina in second.

As for guessing Cal's place in the ACC hierarchy, here are their conference matchups next season.

Home and away: Stanford

Home only: Pitt, Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Boston College

Away only: SMU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Notre Dame

This appears favorable to me. Absent any other information, a 10-8 league record would merit an NCAA Tournament berth. I think Cal could go 11-7 (7-2 at home and 4-5 on the road).
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Finnish Oski
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12:35p, 6/22/24
Thanks for doing all that research, Brevity!
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Schroeder71
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1:25p, 6/22/24
I wish that I knew that Cal would be good next season. If the Bears were as strong as last year, I believe that Cal could finish 11-7 in conference play. Cal never had a positive conference record in the Pac 12 under Charmin Smith. Thanks, brevity.
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annarborbear
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1:48p, 6/22/24
One reason that it will take seeing the teams actually on the court is the mixture of both portal classes and freshman recruiting classes. Eight of the ACC freshman recruiting classes are ranked in the top 25 by ESPN:

#6 Louisville
#7 Duke
#12 Georgia Tech
#15 North Carolina
#17 NC State
#18 Miami
#19 Stanford
#23 Cal

As the portal continues to shake everything up, Clemson, after being down and out. has brought in nine new portal transfers. They could be better or even more down and out.
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calbear80
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In reply to Schroeder71 • 3:04p, 6/22/24
Schroeder71 said:
I wish that I knew that Cal would be good next season. If the Bears were as strong as last year, I believe that Cal could finish 11-7 in conference play. Cal never had a positive conference record in the Pac 12 under Charmin Smith. Thanks, brevity.


. Current WBB coaching staff's overall conference record is 17-62 (21% winning, 79% losing).
. A .500 winning conference winning record is being average/mediocre.
. What do you think it takes for the current coaching staff to reach .500 overall conference record?

Go Bears!
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annarborbear
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3:05p, 6/22/24
After looking at the ACC rosters, which have many unknowns, I did identify one player who I do plan to follow on another team. Chazadi Wright is a 5'4" four-star freshman PG at Georgia Tech who was a two-time Georgia all-state high schooler and whose nickname is "Chit Chat".
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annarborbear
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In reply to calbear80 • 3:07p, 6/22/24
calbear80 said:
Schroeder71 said:
I wish that I knew that Cal would be good next season. If the Bears were as strong as last year, I believe that Cal could finish 11-7 in conference play. Cal never had a positive conference record in the Pac 12 under Charmin Smith. Thanks, brevity.


. Current WBB coaching staff's overall conference record is 17-62 (21% winning, 79% losing).
. A .500 winning conference winning record is being average/mediocre.
. What do you think it takes for the current coaching staff to reach .500 overall conference record?

Go Bears!
Let's just wait to see how everything goes. No predictions are likely possible at this point. (No offense to Brevity, who provided some interesting information).
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calbear80
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In reply to annarborbear • 3:10p, 6/22/24
annarborbear said:
One reason that it will take seeing the teams actually on the court is the mixture of both portal classes and freshman recruiting classes. Eight of the ACC freshman recruiting classes are ranked in the top 25 by ESPN:

#6 Louisville
#7 Duke
#12 Georgia Tech
#15 North Carolina
#17 NC State
#18 Miami
#19 Stanford
#23 Cal

As the portal continues to shake everything up, Clemson, after being down and out. has brought in nine new portal transfers. They could be better or even more down and out.


Annarborbear, thanks for doing the research. According to above, our incoming freshman recruiting class is ranked eighth in the conference. Do you know where our incoming transfers rank in the conference?

Go Bears!
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annarborbear
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In reply to calbear80 • 3:26p, 6/22/24
calbear80 said:

Annarborbear, thanks for doing the research. According to above, our incoming freshman recruiting class is ranked eighth in the conference. Do you know where our incoming transfers rank in the conference?

Go Bears!
There is probably a list like that out there, but I couldn't find it. However, of the top 25 portal transfers as listed by ESPN, only three are coming into the ACC - two at Notre Dame, and one at Duke. We are lucky we are not still going up against UCLA and USC, who really dominated in the portal.
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HoopDreams
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4:10p, 6/22/24
We need another post, someone like a healthy Lane would be good
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CalFanatic
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12:48p, 6/24/24
I said this in a separate thread.

I'm shocked at the amount of non-conference travel our volleyball team is doing.

I hope we keep most non-conference games local. There are so many worth D1 opponents in Northern and Central California.
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calbear80
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5:16p, 6/24/24
The two West Coast schools are going to be challenged with the traveling to the ACC conference road games, specially for MBB and WBB. Are they still going to play the conference games on Thursdays and Saturdays? I hope Cal's admin can get together with LSJU's admin and arrange for some kind of charter flights because commercial flights with connections will be long and exhausting for our student athletes.

Go Bears!
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HoopDreams
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6:14p, 6/24/24

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annarborbear
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In reply to calbear80 • 7:58p, 6/24/24
calbear80 said:
The two West Coast schools are going to be challenged with the traveling to the ACC conference road games, specially for MBB and WBB. Are they still going to play the conference games on Thursdays and Saturdays? I hope Cal's admin can get together with LSJU's admin and arrange for some kind of charter flights because commercial flights with connections will be long and exhausting for our student athletes.

Go Bears!
It will not be easy sharing planes since most of the ACC schools are not very geographically close together. You can do it for Duke/Wake Forest and the Carolinas the year after. But otherwise, you will still have to go to some pretty widespread locations the same weekend. Although you could possibly parachute in.

Might be easier to schedule the men's and women's teams together to the same places the same weekends. Men could play on Thursday and Saturday. The women could play on Friday and Sunday. Everyone could then fly back together Sunday evening.
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calbear80
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3:57a, 6/25/24
I miss PAC-12 for so many reasons. Such a great conference with great history and rivalries. It is sad to see it all collapsed in a blink of an eye.

Go Bears!
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RedlessWardrobe
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In reply to annarborbear • 7:33a, 6/25/24
annarborbear said:
To look to the future (i.e., next season), here is a list of questions that will need to be answered, and probably cannot be until we take the court. My guess is that most of these will need to turn out positively for us in order to make the NCAA tournament:

1. Can Michelle stay on the court for 28 minutes per game (vs 19 mpg last year)?
2. Can we still land a good international post? If not, can Claudia serve as an effective back-up to Michelle?
3. Can Marta increase her shooting percentages and decrease TO's?
4. Can Lulu become our second outside threat by increasing her shooting percentages?
5. Which freshmen will be ready to play? Can any make the all-ACC freshmen team?
6. Can Maul fully recover from her torn ACL in this second year?
7. Can Noble and Williams defensive skills make a difference if others can provide the scoring?
8. How will the increased travel play out, especially if we are relying on freshmen for significant contributions?
9. Last year's weaker teams in the ACC (and now including SMU) were Miami, Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, Clemson, Wake Forest, Pitt, and SMU. If we can beat all of these teams (we play each one once), who else can we beat to climb into 9th place and a potential NCAA selection?

At this point, it seems like everything is possible, but also everything is unknown.


All great questions.
I still contend that the answer to question number 4 will depend much more on the shots that our entire offense can create for her than on Lulu herself. Lulu can shoot.

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wvitbear
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9:19a, 6/25/24
U Va and Clemson are not too far from the Acc schools. Wake Forrest, UNC, Duke, N C State.
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calbear80
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7:40p, 6/25/24
Duke, UNC and NC State are all located less than 25 miles from each other and are essentially in one metro area. I have attended MBB games at all three schools in one day: around noon at Duke, 4 PM at UNC and 73:0 PM at NC State (Duke and UNC were sold out and tough ticket to find, NC State ticket was no problem).

Go Bears!
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SFCALBear72
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7:58p, 6/25/24
During the Zoom meeting with Charmin today, she said:

ACC games will be Thursday/Sunday. Team will travel Wednesday. Charter flights.

ACC has yet to reveal travel partners (her example: Cal might have to play UNC and Miami on a road trip)

Team will be shooting a lot of 3's.

Point guard rotation will likely include Kayla Williams, Yo Krimili, Zahra King, Gisella Maul and maybe even Lulu.

And as always, "bring a freakin' friend to the games." She'll be working with Cal Athletics to build attendance.
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CalWSportsFan
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In reply to SFCALBear72 • 7:13a, 6/26/24
During the Zoom meeting, I was struck by Charmin's discussions as to the complexity of being a coach in this era of NIL, transfer portal and the "House vs NCAA" settlement. I understand why Charmin says next hire need is a "general manager." In addition recruits that receive offers are not ones who will be given time to developthey need to be able to contribute right away. The portal has led to this mindset. Changes to number of slots on teams will change toonot based on scholarships. Crazy, crazy times. Cal still fundraising to upgrade locker room and NIL money continues to be key. As Charmin noted, bottom line is that top players will follow the money. She did note every Cal player received some NIL funds at this point, though more is needed. Overall I am saddened by what D1 sports is evolving into, the loss of the Pac-12 due to football $$$the list continues to grow….
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SFCALBear72
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In reply to CalWSportsFan • 7:34a, 6/26/24
CalWSportsFan said:
During the Zoom meeting, I was struck by Charmin's discussions as to the complexity of being a coach in this era of NIL, transfer portal and the "House vs NCAA" settlement. I understand why Charmin says next hire need is a "general manager." In addition recruits that receive offers are not ones who will be given time to developthey need to be able to contribute right away. The portal has led to this mindset. Changes to number of slots on teams will change toonot based on scholarships. Crazy, crazy times. Cal still fundraising to upgrade locker room and NIL money continues to be key. As Charmin noted, bottom line is that top players will follow the money. She did note every Cal player received some NIL funds at this point, though more is needed. Overall I am saddened by what D1 sports is evolving into, the loss of the Pac-12 due to football $$$the list continues to grow….
Indeed! It is not just "X's and O's" on the court as some here have tried to "simplify" Charmin's tasks/roles in their criticism. The discussion sure opened my eyes about the complexities of women's (and men's) college basketball coaching these days.

I'm surprised that we haven't seen more messages directed to Cal women's and men's basketball season ticketholders about the locker room upgrade. At least I haven't seen any. I've donated to the WBB NIL and plan to continue.

Although her remarks were brief, I was impressed with Coach Jenny Huth particularly her background and energy/enthusiasm. Her presence should pay dividends.

The arrival of Chancellor and "sports-friendly" Rich Lyons couldn't happen at a better time (July 1). Hopefully he'll have some initiatives to address some of these issues.
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mbBear
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In reply to SFCALBear72 • 7:52a, 6/26/24
SFCALBear72 said:
During the Zoom meeting with Charmin today, she said:

ACC games will be Thursday/Sunday. Team will travel Wednesday. Charter flights.

ACC has yet to reveal travel partners (her example: Cal might have to play UNC and Miami on a road trip)

Team will be shooting a lot of 3's.

Point guard rotation will likely include Kayla Williams, Yo Krimili, Zahra King, Gisella Maul and maybe even Lulu.

And as always, "bring a freakin' friend to the games." She'll be working with Cal Athletics to build attendance.
I guess Miami is always going to be an issue because it's far from other schools. Yes, FSU is in the ACC but they would probably fly from there to Miami (or vice versa) anyway...so, flying from a UNC to Miami is another 50 minutes or whatever...
The other challenging one, thinking about it quickly, is probably Louisville....Syracuse is a bit of an outlier too: 4.5 hrs to BC....
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mbBear
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In reply to calbear80 • 7:56a, 6/26/24
calbear80 said:
Duke, UNC and NC State are all located less than 25 miles from each other and are essentially in one metro area. I have attended MBB games at all three schools in one day: around noon at Duke, 4 PM at UNC and 73:0 PM at NC State (Duke and UNC were sold out and tough ticket to find, NC State ticket was no problem).

Go Bears!
Exactly...just to add Wake Forest into that mix as well, more or less in your 25 mile radius.
I have done the Atlanta (Georgia Tech) to Clemson drive for work, and that's pretty good too....
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SFCALBear72
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8:01a, 6/26/24
The UNC/Miami "trip" was Charmin's example. Cal (and Stanford for that matter) is hoping to get some clarification from ACC officials sometime this summer.

We got "spoiled" with the Pac-12's arrangements. lol.
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annarborbear
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8:10a, 6/26/24
Still amazing to me that the USC and UCLA Athletic Directors who cooked up the PAC12 breakup scheme were not even from the West Coast. Over a hundred years of tradition down the drain and no consideration at all for the impacts on student-athletes.
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mbBear
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In reply to SFCALBear72 • 8:12a, 6/26/24
SFCALBear72 said:
The UNC/Miami "trip" was Charmin's example. Cal (and Stanford for that matter) is hoping to get some clarification from ACC officials sometime this summer.

We got "spoiled" with the Pac-12's arrangements. lol.
Maybe it's one "good trip" and one "crummy" trip per season (meaning the fly between locations)...but maybe that's not enough games, guess we don't know how many teams they will miss in a year....
IF they don't pair UNC with one of 3 possibilties, then they aren't trying hard enough! Louisville/Miami, yeah, okay...
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HoopDreams
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In reply to CalWSportsFan • 11:47a, 6/26/24
CalWSportsFan said:
During the Zoom meeting, I was struck by Charmin's discussions as to the complexity of being a coach in this era of NIL, transfer portal and the "House vs NCAA" settlement. I understand why Charmin says next hire need is a "general manager." In addition recruits that receive offers are not ones who will be given time to developthey need to be able to contribute right away. The portal has led to this mindset. Changes to number of slots on teams will change too not based on scholarships. Crazy, crazy times. Cal still fundraising to upgrade locker room and NIL money continues to be key. As Charmin noted, bottom line is that top players will follow the money. She did note every Cal player received some NIL funds at this point, though more is needed. Overall I am saddened by what D1 sports is evolving into, the loss of the Pac-12 due to football $$$the list continues to grow….
Sorry for my many questions. I had a conflict at the time of the Zoom call...

regarding number of scholarships, my understanding is they will either limit total team rosters (since a team with lots of NIL could basically give a 'walkon' a big NIL check that would pay for tuition + the NIL amount on top, basically allowing teams to have 20 top players on the team

Or the opposite ... no limits on number of scholarships so those 'walk ons' would get scholarships too.

Did Coach say or hint which one of the above will happen?


By "Every Cal Player" does that mean returning and entering freshmen (I assume transfers got NIL)

I know their goal was $250K NIL. Did they say if they reached that goal?

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ClayK
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7:07a, 6/27/24
I don't see teams trying to put 20 people on a roster -- a recipe for unhappiness and disaster.

You need two or three elite players and four or five complementary pieces. Anything else is overkill.
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CalWSportsFan
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In reply to ClayK • 11:04a, 6/27/24
Charmin made mention of need for practice players and hence the fact that walk-one can be valuable so that starters don't get worn out practicing on road (when male practice players not available). It sounds like allowed roster sizes will be somewhat reduced but scholarships no longer a factor? To be honest, this part of the discussion left me a tad confused so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt. Bottom line it's an era of shifting sands and recruiting seems like it will be altered as now, with the portal, coaches can fill immediate needs with more matured/experienced players rather than recruit those high school kids who'll require a couple seasons to develop. In the end it may limit the opportunity of some young women to obtain D1 scholarship offers. I'm not fond of where things are going really…the idea of true student athlete, at least with regard to some sports, is fading fast.
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brevity
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In reply to ClayK • 11:15a, 6/27/24
ClayK said:
You need two or three elite players and four or five complementary pieces. Anything else is overkill.

Tell that to TCU. Last season they were 14-0 and ranked 23rd in the AP poll on New Year's Day, despite a few significant injuries. Within the next three weeks, they suffered more injuries, losing 4 straight games and forfeiting 2 more because their roster of healthy players was so short. They staged tryouts and added 3 walk-ons just to get through the season. They finished 21-12.
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SFCALBear72
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In reply to CalWSportsFan • 12:05p, 6/27/24
CalWSportsFan said:
Charmin made mention of need for practice players and hence the fact that walk-one can be valuable so that starters don't get worn out practicing on road (when male practice players not available). It sounds like allowed roster sizes will be somewhat reduced but scholarships no longer a factor? To be honest, this part of the discussion left me a tad confused so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt. Bottom line it's an era of shifting sands and recruiting seems like it will be altered as now, with the portal, coaches can fill immediate needs with more matured/experienced players rather than recruit those high school kids who'll require a couple seasons to develop. In the end it may limit the opportunity of some young women to obtain D1 scholarship offers. I'm not fond of where things are going really…the idea of true student athlete, at least with regard to some sports, is fading fast.
Totally agree.

It was a lot of information to absorb in a short amount of time before we moved on to the next topic. I'm sure Charmin and her staff will be discussing this further with us as we get closer to the season and even during the season.
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