This is a difficult matchup for Cal from several perspectives. Their head coach, Kara Lawson, has turned their program around into one of the top defensive teams in women's college hoops. It took her until her 3rd & 4th seasons to have major success. She brought in two great recruit classes in 2023 (6th) and in 2024 (7th). In 2022-23, Duke finished 3rd in the nation in scoring defense (51 ppg) and in 2023-24, they ranked 4th (58). Over those two seasons, the Blue Devil's D held all of their opponents except one below their respective season's scoring average.

I watched Duke visit arch-rival UNC a week or so ago, and both teams put defense first. The game ended 40-40 and forced OT. UNC prevailed 53 to 46. North Carolina visits Cal on January 30th. (box score below)
Women's Basketball vs North Carolina on 01/09/25 - Box Score - Duke University

I watched the 1st half and turned it off because it was so boring. The 1st quarter was 8-6 Duke, and 2nd was 10-8 UNC for a 16-16 tie. Duke did something that I hadn't seen in a while. Their guards attempted to force charging calls against the dribblers that they were defending. They were not stationary. They were running alongside and tried to beat the offensive player to the spot where she was going...I think two were called charging and two were called on the defense. This was how brutal this game was the entire time that I was watching. I can see three of Cal's starters struggling trying to drive with this pressure. If the Blue Devils defend the three and force the Bears to drive, they might have difficulty scoring. Duke forces 21 turnovers per game and grabs over 40 rebounds on average.

Duke has lost four games on the road. They are undefeated at home. Three of their defeats were at #2 South Carolina, at #8 Maryland & #14 UNC. They beat #11 Kansas St and #13 Oklahoma at a neutral site in Nevada. Their seven home games have not been close against average (at best) competition. The Blue Devils recently dominated Va Tech (81-59) and Pitt (69-31). Only an Ivy League team, Columbia, got out of the 31-59 range by registering 61 points but still lost by 16 (77-61).

Duke University stats

I will do a team comparison at the end of the key factors that will decide the outcome of this game. I will briefly review Duke's 7"man" rotation. Coach Lawson has her players participate each game for 18-28 minutes. She has two others that often see time in the 14-15 m range if the game is one-sided.

Duke's best offensive threat is Ashton Jackson. She is a 6-0 junior SG that puts up 11.7 points/ 2.1 rebounds per game. She is their primary threat from distance with 37 treys (43% accuracy). The other wing or 2 guard is Reigan Richardson. She is the lone senior at 5-11. She notches 11.6 /2.8 on average. She is 2nd in both assists (46) & three-point baskets (21). Their junior 5-9 point-guard, Taina Mair, is invaluable to this team. She leads in assists w/ 3.9 per game. She is second in steals (28) and third in treys made (16). Jadyn Donovan is a 6-0 soph small forward that is their #1 rebounder with 7.1 boards. She also scores 7.1 points per contest. This young lady is an athlete and is 2nd in blocks (15) & 3rd in steals (26). The Blue Devils start a 6-3 soph post named Delaney Thomas. Her stats are 7.6 points + 4.6 boards per game.

The head coach brings their two best all-around players off of the bench. They are both youngsters. Soph 5-10 SG and best defensive player is Oluchi Okananwa. She scores 8.7 points and grabs 5.3 rebounds in 19.5 minutes per outing. She is #1 in steals with 35!. Their top recruit is Toby Fournier, a 6-2 frosh PF from Canada. I saw her play vs Mitty in the Nike TOC last year. She is athletic and has hops. The freshman only gets 17.7 m and leads the team in scoring with 11.9 points plus is 3rd in rebounds with 5.1. Fournier is also tops in blocks (20) & made FTs (44).

2024-25 Women's Basketball Roster - Duke University

Those are the cast of characters that Cal will have to contend with tomorrow night. Most of the team stats are almost identical except for a couple. Each team wins on average by 16+ ppg. This year Duke is holding opponents to 61 points per game. Both teams are strong on the boards with over 40 rebounds per night. The two differences are in turnovers committed and three-point baskets made. The Bears cannot stay in this game if they cannot get open for threes. Cal averages 10 treys per game. Duke makes 6. The Blue Devil's defense creates 20.9 TOs per game (including 11.4 steals). Ball-handling has been the Achille's heel for the Bears all season, but they have by-in-large been able to overcome that w/ a 16-2 record. Cal has been improving in this area, however.

Bottomline: I am not overly impressed with Duke's offense and Cal's defense actually holds its opposition to 61.39 points per game. Both offenses score 77+ points. The Bears continue to surprise me by their performances this season. This is a battle between #16 Duke & #18 Cal. If it was in Berkeley, my money would be on the Bears. Since the game is played in Durham, I would guess that the home court advantage will come into play and the Blue Devils will prevail by three, 68-65. Believe me, I hope that I am wrong in my assessment.
GO BEARS!

It will be interesting to see how Cal comes out early in the game. They got ambushed a bit by Clemson and that was the first week they were ranked. Clemson had just played NC State really tough and were feeling pretty confident. What will the Bear's compete factor?

Duke is already confident, especially on their home court. They're battle tested. Cal is too but in my mind to a slightly lesser degree.

Cliche to say but if Cal shoots it well (odds may be against that) and plays with some attitude and swagger, they can win. If they're cold, they'll have to limit Duke and then it's probably a close game which Duke will likely pull out.

Should be the toughest game to date.

Schroeder71 said:

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Their top recruit is Toby Fournier, a 6-2 frosh PF from Canada. I saw him play vs Mitty in the Nike TOC last year. He is athletic and has hops. He only gets 17.7 m and leads the team in scoring with 11.9 points plus is 3rd in rebounds with 5.1. He is also tops in blocks (20) & made FTs (44).

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Schroeder71: Time for an 8th edit? Please tell me this is an AI thing. Toby Fournier is female, and was known for dunking the ball in high school. In the preseason festivities, Coach Lawson suggested she might dunk this year, but she hasn't yet, and it seems less likely or important while in the heart of a conference schedule.

HoopDreams: Teams with more size (not just height) can cause Duke problems. That was the case with the losses at Maryland and South Carolina. But they faced Kansas State's Ayoka Lee and Oklahoma's Raegan Beers about 48 hours apart, and won both games. They were able to neutralize UNC center Maria Gakdeng, but backup center Blanca Thomas filled in capably for the Tar Heels.

ESPN announcers often say "throw out the record books" when it comes to the Duke-UNC rivalry in men's basketball. For the women, it's more like "throw out the calendar", because the game reverts to some sort of low-scoring slugfest from decades past. It was not enjoyable to watch, and I would admit that even if Duke had finished their comeback in regulation instead of losing in overtime.

annarborbear: There is, admittedly, a little-sister vibe to the local following of Duke WBB, so turnout is generally low. Students are, well, students: it can be difficult to devote extracurricular time to more than one team, and most of them opt to follow the far more popular men's team. Most of the fans are not students -- more likely alumni or other older people in the area. Devoted, but not as numerous.

Both Duke basketball teams are doing well, but this season I'd have to say that I'm more attached to the women than the men. I shrugged it off when the men lost to Kentucky and Kansas, but when the women lose, it affects me more.

When Alana Beard played for Duke, it seemed like there were constantly more than 2000 there. Winning does wonders for attendance

I'm very impressed with Duke's defense so far. Easily the best defensive team we'll have faced to date. This is a good test for us.

A good ol' fashioned whooping. The Clemson loss was upsetting because player for player we were the better team. Duke is a better team. Time to bounce back against WF!