Wake Forest forecast

3,007 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by annarborbear
Schroeder71
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This matchup is a good one for Cal on paper. If the Bears were facing the Demon Deacons in the opener of the weekend, I would have zero doubt that Cal would win by at least 15 points. However, a train wreck happened last Thursday night in Durham that I doubt can easily be forgotten. My prediction for tomorrow afternoon is that Cal will struggle but prevail 72-62. It's been a rough road trip facing "Devils & Demons" over a weekend.

Fortunately, Wake Forest is experiencing a nightmare of their own. The Demon Deacons are 7-10 overall and 0-6 in the ACC. They have been playing competitive basketball but have not been able to close out games. The three ACC home losses were to Clemson (by 6), to Louisville in OT (by 5) & to Stanford (by 3). Out of the eleven home games, WF is 6-5 and has not lost a game by as much as 10 points. A victory is there for the taking but the Deacons have to find a way to get over the hump.

I watched the entire Stanford-Wake Forest game, and it was not close for three quarters. The Cardinal jumped out to a 19-9 lead after the 1st quarter and stayed in command through three quarters, leading by 16 points (58-42). Both teams play at a comfortable pace and the game became a three-point shooting contest. Both teams got hot! Stanford hit 12 (through the course of the game) to WF's 10. Both teams shot at approximately 45%. The Demon Deacons got seriously on fire in the final period. Their top scorer Elise Williams went 7-15 for 19 points (including 2 treys) on the night. Their designated three-point shooter, Raegyn Conley went off for 6-10, finishing w/ 18. The home team took control and cut Stanford's margin to four points. Conley quickly threw up another three late that hit both sides of the rim and came out. It would have made it a one-point game. Wake Forest is that close to getting a win at home in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

https://godeacs.com/documents/2025/1/17/WBB_Season.pdf (scroll down to page 2)

Megan Gebbia is in her second year as head coach. She was the winniest 1st year coach (17 wins) in program history but she's not getting any breaks this year (like 2023-24). She rotates 8 players that play 18.7 to 30.4 minutes per game. The Demon Deacons only score 62.1 ppg while holding their opponents to 60.8. Cal compares favorably is virtually every statistical category. On paper, this game should be no contest. However, the outcome of this game might turn out to be the mental and emotional state of the Cal players.

2024-25 Women's Basketball Roster - Wake Forest University Athletics

Wake Forest has players that were recruited out of high school and have stayed. Only one transfer, Tamia Jones, from SMU starts at PG and is making an impact in her initial year in the program. She plays the second most minutes (29.8) and leads the team with 53 assists & 36 steals. Jones contributes 8.1 points /4.1 rebounds. Her backcourt mate that is the offensive force on the team is Elise Williams. She is the only double-digit scorer with an 11.5 average + 4 rebounds per contest. She is the other sound ball-handler wit 49 assists vs 30 TOs. She is also 2nd in steals with 32. Williams is tied for second in three-point baskets made (18). The 3rd guard that is dangerous is Raegyn Conley, making 28-74 (37.8%) on her treys. To complement this trio, two big post players split the minutes inside. Their leading rebounder (6.0) is 6-3 Malaya Cowles. She also is the team's 2nd leading offensive threat at 9.6 ppg. She only played 5 minutes against Stanford after being poked directly in the eye. They might have won the game if they had #5 inside. I don't know her status for tomorrow. Cowles is tied for second in steals w/ 32. Her sidekick is 6-2 Demeara Hinds (#25) who grabs 5.5 boards while adding 8.6 points to the offense. Both of these posts do not shoot threes, but they do turn the ball over. The team's 3rd leading scorer is Rylie Theuerkauf with 9.2 ppg. She is tied for 2nd in treys w/18. I didn't mention her because she was quiet vs Stanford. There's also a frosh sparkplug, Aurora Sorbye, from Norway. She contributed to the comeback with a three and totaled 11 points.

In summary, Cal should dominate the boards and win the long-distance game based upon stats. If the Bears can find their offensive rhythm, they should be able to outscore Wake Forest. This game and the upcoming home game with Pitt are the two most obvious potential victories on the schedule. This is a *must-win* bounce back game for the Bears if they want to continue on their memorable journey to the NCAA Tournament.

GO BEARS!





SFCALBear72
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I think the Bears' mental state will be fine today with the extra day off in between games to focus on their next opponent and not the past. I'm guessing they are anxious to get back on the court.

A posting on Instagram yesterday showed Lola Donez practicing with the team, so perhaps she'll get some minutes today. It certainly would help with the rotation.

Get the Split!!

Go Bears!!
Woodacre
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Oddsmakers agree with you…9.5 is current spread…https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/odds
Schroeder71
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At 5 minute mark of 1st quarter, Cal held without a basket. WF jumps out in front 6-2. Onyiah has traveled, two entry passes to her for TOs, PF on Onyiah and two easy FGs inside by two posts against Onyiah. Bears are 0-4 on their three pointers. Suarez missed close in and was beaten for a layup on a backdoor play.

!st quarter: WF 14, Cal 13. Bears 1-7 from three-point land. Cal needs to hit treys or they will lose. Elise Williams is taking the shorter Kayla Williams to the basket for layups (3-3). Krimili & Lulu are scoreless. Five turnovers committed by the Bears in the first quarter.

Onyiah picks up 2nd PF and heads back to bench. Krimili has awakened with 8 quick points in the second period.
Lulu just hit a three, too.

Abigor picks up two quick fouls. Hinds has a drop step move that is beating the Cal posts continually. Cal has 13 turnovers against a team that doesn't force 20+. Three TOs on Suarez &, Onyiah each. Two turnovers against Ackerman and one on Abigor. Nine of the TOs on Cal post players. The Bears would not be ahead if the Splash twins had not connected on 5 treys in the 2nd quarter to account for 15 of their 19 points.

The Demon Deacons offense has been SG Elise Williams with nine points and their two-headed post position with nine more. This is 18 of their 24 (75%) at halftime. Raegyn Conley (#11), their three-point bomber, is scoreless and she's 0-3 on her long-distance attempts so far. She came alive late in the Stanford game to make a run in the final quarter.
RedlessWardrobe
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We need to stop telegraphing our entry passes. It's frustrating to watch

HoopDreams
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I think we are in good position

we can score inside, and they are getting lots of fouls trying to defend us there (refs calling it VERY tight) including travels
blungld
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It's been a few games now that Twidale is not playing like an experienced senior. Lots of forced passes and rushed shots. Hope she finds her groove again.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
HoopDreams
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refs calling game VERY tight

didn't see any foul on gabrielle
SFCALBear72
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blungld said:

It's been a few games now that Twidale is not playing like an experienced senior. Lots of forced passes and rushed shots. Hope she finds her groove again.
Well, she's a sophomore.
blungld
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SFCALBear72 said:

blungld said:

It's been a few games now that Twidale is not playing like an experienced senior. Lots of forced passes and rushed shots. Hope she finds her groove again.
Well, she's a sophomore.
That's what I meant...she's not playing like an experienced senior becuase she is a sophomore.






...thanks for the correction. Embarrassed. I just lost all credibility....if I had any.
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blungld
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Marta, you have a beautiful game and I love you...but pleeeeeease. You are not a guard. Stop driving into the paint.
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HoopDreams
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have you ever seen so many 3 second violations and walk calls in a game???
gljone
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Cal should pull away.

However, 4 straight TOs in Q2 is kind of the story. 12 for the game...so far.

If Cal can just get shots up, they will win by 20+.

Keep with TOs and they still should win, but by smaller numbers.

Allowing a lesser opponent to stay in the game because you can't button up your game puts you at risk.

Button it up, Bears!
HoopDreams
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I think we win this game, but the refs are ridiculous both ways

I don't think I've ever seen a game called so tight
RedlessWardrobe
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Bears looked a bit more like themselves in the second quarter. And I know Shocky doesn't like hearing it, but Wake is getting a little bit of home cooking from the refs. Curious if they'll call a quick 3 second call on Wake.
GerryLopezBear
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I have never seen a 3 second call in men's basketball? 2 in a row?? Traveling call???

This is either crazy tight reffing or we don't know the fundamentals?
RedlessWardrobe
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blungld said:

Marta, you have a beautiful game and I love you...but pleeeeeease. You are not a guard. Stop driving into the paint.
Driving into the paint is not the problem. Trying to go coast to coast is.
Shocky1
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every ref call has been legit, not adapting to the 3 second rule in the lane is part of a high bb iq as is avoiding traveling calls

the bears d is reminiscent of coach cuonzo martin's era of every shot contested with physicality & energy
blungld
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RedlessWardrobe said:

blungld said:

Marta, you have a beautiful game and I love you...but pleeeeeease. You are not a guard. Stop driving into the paint.
Driving into the paint is not the problem. Trying to go coast to coast is.
Coast to coast, definitely. But so many times she gets the ball at the arc and drives to the basket and turns it over. She is better passing, shooting at the elbow, or posting up.

Start of the half, spin turnover from Marta.
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Shocky1
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michelle just knocked the **** outta wake post & then laid the ball in for a bucket, no call

delusional paranoia that the refs r a factor in this game is not even close to reality, wake post just called on a traveling shuffle

championship teams adapt, the bears r not victims!!
Schroeder71
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Cal off to a good start in 3rd stanza with a 7-2 jump. Bears lead by 39-26. Two more turnovers have been made, however. Wake Forest has 10 more shots than does Cal because of the 17 turnovers. The Bears are dominating the rebounding and three-point shooting like I predicted.

Two clutch threes by Lulu re-extended Cal's lead to double-digit after WF began to make a run on a couple of occasions. Stanford led by 16 after three quarters and Cal by 10 points. The fourth quarter could be wild on the road.

Bears are in good shape with a 15-point margin. Krimili has missed two consecutive layups. Ioanna answers the dilemma with a long three!

Cal ends the game with five freshmen on the floor. Team ends the game giving the ball away 28 times. Suarez is the primary offender with six turnovers. This team is winless in the ACC and the Bear's offense cannot function against the Demon Deacons. The dozen point victory is the largest margin of defeat for Wake Forest on their home court this season. Conley hit her first three-point shot w/ 13 seconds left in the game. Cal had zero baskets over the final 3:30 of the game.

Cal outrebounded WF by 45-26 and hit 10 treys to opponent's 5. Due to the plethora of turnovers, the Demon Deacons had many more field goal attempts, 65-49. A good team could take advantage of such a disparity.

I see no signs of this problem going away. Most of the errors are self-inflicted based upon poor judgement on errant passes and traveling. The passes into the post are often unbelievably bad.

The Stanford game in Palo Alto will very close. The Cardinal can shoot the three and have only lost once at Maples Pavillion.
ethan0l
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We obviously need Marta and our team's ceiling is higher because of her skill set. But I can't tell you how often I yell "MARTA!" When she tries to run or drive like Andrej. That's just not her game and I think in these games where we commit too many turnovers, a ton are always her fault charging, travels, lost balls, etc.
HoopDreams
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how is that a travel?????
CalFanatic
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Looks like Stanford got crushed too by Duke. Makes me feel a bit better
HoopDreams
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another HORRIBLE walk call !!!
blungld
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Shocky1 said:

michelle just knocked the **** outta wake post & then laid the ball in for a bucket, no call

delusional paranoia that the refs r a factor in this game is not even close to reality, wake post just called on a traveling shuffle

championship teams adapt, the bears r not victims!!
It's not bias, it's just some really bad reffing.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
HoopDreams
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another horrible walk call ... this time on a WF guard standing there dribbling the ball??!!!???
blungld
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HoopDreams said:

another horrible walk call ... this time on a WF guard standing there dribbling the ball??!!!???
Worst call of the game has to be the travel on Twidale in the 3rd quarter where she is just receiving a pass. I don't think she even had the ball long enough to travel if she wanted to.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
HoopDreams
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to close the game out, the refs wanted to make another bad call, so the WF player grabs King by the waist and the ref calls a tie up
ncbears
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ultimately a 12 point road victory.
But 28 turnovers just --- well, imagine how the Bears would be scoring with averaging half that!

Palms of Victory, nonetheless.
SFCALBear72
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17-3!!!
blungld
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17-3 is pretty amazing.

These turnovers have returned though and I am afraid that it will cost them in the tournament. With a clean game they could beat almost anyone.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
CalFanatic
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Victory!!!

Can we challenge ourselves to play just one quarter of turnover free basketball? Imagine getting an extra 6-8 shots every quarter. Even if it means playing slow. It just kills me. We don't have to play like this.

Anyways, 17-3. I'm happy.
HoopDreams
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this game was never in doubt ... even after the first quarter I thought there was no way for Cal to lose this game

I won't even talk about turnovers because that was the worst called game I've ever seen ... not because of the difficult calls like charge/block or contact/no contact fouls (although they called any post contact very tight)... I'm talking about travels called both ways

I recently watched some videos of a female ref who recorded herself while officiating a game, and commenting after. She talked about not calling fouls that are inconsequential, or whistles when it doesn't give advantage to ball handler

probably the worst call I've ever seen in a college game was when the WF guard was standing with no defender ball pressure and they called her for a walk ... I have to see that on video again to figure out what they even saw ... the analysts didn't comment much on the calls on Cal, but with that call they had to say they didn't understand some of the calls

hope the ACC reviews this game and corrects the refs because it makes the game unwatchable and makes the players very tentative to even move
RedlessWardrobe
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Shocky1 said:

michelle just knocked the **** outta wake post & then laid the ball in for a bucket, no call

delusional paranoia that the refs r a factor in this game is not even close to reality, wake post just called on a traveling shuffle

championship teams adapt, the bears r not victims!!
Shocky u r overcompensating to try to make a point. Michelle and the defender landed at the same spot at the same time. Michelle, with the ball in her hand did not knock the **** out of her. The Wake girl flopped
Again, calling out the refs when they're bad is justified when they consistently suck. As fans, if we think they suck, we shouldn't have to hold back. In the second half, at least twice I saw a Wake player drive into the lane, stop underneath the hoop, and camp there for AT LEAST 3 seconds. In the first half it was gonna get called. But now it wasn't. Inconsistent officiating needs to be called out.
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